Kentucky Derby 2012 – Part I
For the past twelve years I’ve been a more dedicated fan of the Triple
Crown (The Kentucky Derby / Preakness / and Belmont Stakes) –
and in my opinion the 2012 Kentucky Derby promises to be the most competitive,
most “complete” Kentucky Derby I’ve ever seen – and quite possibly could be the
most “complete” Kentucky Derby we’ll ever see.
By “complete” I mean that all of the major competitors will
be healthy and instead of it being only one or two favorites against the rest
of the field - this Kentucky Derby has 6
to 8 horses that (with a solid post position) could make a very solid choice as
the “favorite”. It’s anybody’s guess….but in this case that’s a great thing.
Here are the nine horses that I believe make this Kentucky
Derby special:
Daddy Long Legs -
It’s rare when the UAE Derby winner contends in the Kentucky
Derby. The UAE Derby is held in Dubai and it’s usually held in March. It takes
a lot out of a horse to travel that distance and acclimate in only a month and a
half. I believe the last UAE Derby winner to enter the Kentucky Derby was Regal
Ransom – and (in my opinion) they only entered him because the 2009 field was
so weak (The Winner was 50-1 longshot – and my personal nemesis Mine That
Bird).
This year it appears that UAE Derby Winner Daddy Long Legs
will run in the Kentucky Derby – if he pulls out a victory….he’d be the only
horse to ever win both the UAE Derby and Kentucky Derby! However I wouldn’t
hold your breath – he finished 12th in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile - against a number of these other horses.
Hansen –
Hansen is the defending Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Champion – a race
he won at Churchill Downs (home of the Kentucky Derby) last November. He’s won
four out of his last six races – however he’s also finished in 2nd
place in two of his last three races. He
was a bit of a surprise in the Breeders Cup last November and I think most
horse fans believe his success has been due slightly more to luck than skill….and that
come this Saturday his luck might run out.
However you can’t deny that Hansen has the ability to jump out
to an early lead and keep it….and in this particular Derby, where 8 or 10
horses could be bunched up in the final turn – his early lead could be the
difference maker. If he wins the Kentucky Derby he’d be the first horse since
Street Sense (2007) to win both the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and the KY Derby.
Union Rags –
Union Rags may be best described as a “favorite in waiting”.
He was the favorite going into the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and finished a close
second behind Hansen. He was the favorite in the Florida Derby – but he
finished third --- not because he had an off day, but more so because he couldn’t
find an open lane until it was too late to make a final charge. He has a bad habit of not being able to close the big races….however he may also be
the best three year old in the country – with a bit of good luck this horse
could blossom into the superior talent that we were promised last November. His time could certainly be this Saturday!
Creative Cause -
He finished 3rd in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and
he recently defeated Bodemeister in a blistering San Felipe mile & 1/16 (which is
impressive, once you’ve seen Bodemeister). He certainly may not be the best
horse in the field this Saturday – but he’s got enough closing speed and
experience that with a little luck he could take home the roses.
Bodemeister –Despite his defeat against Creative Cause – Bodemeister could be the “star” on the rise! He dominated the Arkansas Derby, which in my opinion is one of the key prep races to win. He has a habit of bouncing (meaning he tends to follow a win with a loss….and then follow the loss with a win) – so his Arkansas Derby victory could be a matter of the right race – wrong time…..but his runaway victory in Arkansas (9 1/2 lengths) was flat out scary – possible "big talent" with this horse (might be the one to watch in the Preakness).
Gemologist –
I should probably point out that this list is in no
particular order….because while all of the above horses are very good (if not
great)….only Gemologist is undefeated! He’ll enter the Kentucky Derby 5-0, and
winner of the Wood Memorial - one of finer prep races you can win. I like Gemologist quite a bit, however the one
strike against him is that he hasn’t raced against this kind of talent yet…..so
it’s difficult to know exactly where to rank him. The question is – has he been
ducking these other horses….or have they been ducking him??? Hard not to appreciate a horse that
consistently simply shows up and wins.
Dullahan –
Finished 4th in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile –
however he most recently beat the “Champ” Hansen in the Blue Grass Stakes on
April 12th. The buzz on this horse is that (like Bodemeister) his talent
is on the rise and that he’s coming into his own at precisely the right time!
Two additional horses that make this race both interesting
and special are Take Charge Indy and Alpha….but I’ll be writing more about them
in my Kentucky Derby Part II – Who’s Yo’ Daddy.
