Kentucky Derby 2026

  

Churchill Downs  – May 2nd, 2026
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $5,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface – Dirt

#1 Renegade
#2 Albus
#3 Intrepido
#4 Litmus Test
#5 Right To Party
#6 Commandment
#7 Danon Bourbon
#8 So Happy
#9 The Puma
#10 Wonder Dean (JPN)
#11 Incredibolt
#12 Chief Wallabee
#13 Silent Tactic
#14 Potente
#15 Emerging Market
#16 Pavlovian
# 17 Six Speed
#18 Further Ado
#19 Golden Tempo
#20  Fulleffort
Sub: Great White
Sub: Ocelli

“The jig is up, the news is out, They finally found me, The renegade who had it made, Retrieved for a bounty” – Styx – Renegade.

The last time a horse won the Kentucky Derby from the #1 post was 40 years ago (1986) with Ferdinand. Which is one reason I found it “interesting” that #1 Renegade was the morning line favorite at 4-1 odds.

#1 Renegade – Has won 3 out of 4 lifetime races including a dominant victory at the Arkansas Derby. His Trainer Todd Pletcher has two KY Derby victories and Irad Ortiz is one of the best riders in the US. However he’ll VERY LIKELY be buried or pinned in the first quarter of this race and then have to maneuver past a wall of horses to reach the finish line first – he’s my favorite this year with the absolute worst spot in the race.

#2 Albus – Winner of his last two races including the Wood Memorial. While I like this horse quite a bit his rider chose to stick with #11 Incredibolt – so he’ll have a new jockey and not a great starting spot.

#3 Intrepido – Hasn’t won a race since October 2025 – he’s a very solid horse and Hector Berrios has been aboard for the last 5 rides – he finished 4^th in the Santa Anita Derby and his 50-1 odds are about right.

#4 Litmus Test – Hasn’t won since December 2025, and will have Garcia aboard for the first time. He’s a Bob Baffert trained horse – and Baffert has 6 total KY Derbies to his name – but 50-1 also seems right for this horse as well.

#5 Right to Party – Finished 2^nd in the Wood Memorial behind Albus – but hasn’t seen the Winners Circle since January 2026. Trainer Kenneth McPeek won the KY Derby in 2024 and Jockey Elliott has been on board for three previous races – so his Posse is in Effect, and as much as I’d like to Fight for the Right to Party, unless they have Paul Revere on board or a New Style – I see this as a Slow Ride – in fact Slow and Low chance of hitting the money here – his Kentucky Racing License is really just a License to Ill.

Also from 1986....and YES I included as many song titles
as I could think of on this album for Right to Party! 

 #6 Commandment – The (2^nd) morning line favorite has everything working for him. He’s won his last four races including the Florida Derby – he even has 1 lifetime victory here at Churchhill Downs. His Post Position #6 – places him in a great spot for this race. I think Commandment will be the favorite when they approach the gate and for good reason. HOWEVER he had Flavien Prat aboard for his Florida Derby win and Irad Ortiz for the two races before that. This will be Saez’s first time with this horse – is that enough to cause some doubt?? If he wins the Kentucky Derby that will be 5 wins with 4 Different Riders.

#7 Danon Bourbon – Is a Kentucky Bred horse who has three dominant wins in three races….that have all been in Japan. Japan is making great strides in Horse Racing – and this horse will have the same rider (Nishimura) as he’s had his whole career – however in my experience changing Countries, Tracks and even running in a different direction (they run clock-wise in Japan) can be a difficult ask for a horse their first time out. 20-1 is an interesting price – and “someday” a foreign horse is going to win this race….I just don’t think it’s this one.

#8 So Happy – Santa Anita Derby winner who has 3 lifetime victories in 4 races – has Big Money Mike Smith on board for the fifth straight time. Mike Smith has two KY Derby wins and he has this horse in a great spot and with current odds at 15-1….has my attention. Especially because this horse can run at the top of pack early and still close.

#9 The Puma – One victory (Tampa Bay Derby) in Four Races – but has been competitive. In the other three races he finished 2^nd behind Commandment, 3^rd behind Renegade, 2^nd behind Chief Wallabee. His Jockey and Trainer put together a Kentucky Derby Victory in 2023 with Mage from the 8^th spot. With a little luck it’s possible he makes the top 3. 

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
has only a long, appreciative,
and supportive stare to offer
The Puma 

#10 Wonder Dean (JPN) – recently defeated #17 Six Speed – in the UAE Derby. Similar issue to Danon Bourbon – horses with UAE Derby victories just haven’t “won”. Solid post position – good horse – could surprise….and at 30-1 has my attention….but history says save your money.

#11 Incredibolt – At 20-1 this horse is a very interesting prospect to me. He has had Torres aboard his entire career – and has 3 victories in 5 races. His last race was a beautiful ride in the Virginia Derby in mid-March – he navigated traffic like a seasoned pro and closed well. His other two victories were here at Churchhill Downs. He’s got a great post position – and has shown to have the kind of kick and poise to do well here in the Kentucky Derby.

Here’s the bad news – His Jockey Torres has never raced in the Kentucky Derby – and his Trainer Riley Mott has never won one – although his Father Trainer Bill Mott has won two Kentucky Derbies. Also the Virginia Derby (on Dirt) is only in it’s second year – and it’s difficult to judge how that race translates to this one. American Promise won the Virginia Derby in 2025 and finished 16^th here at the Kentucky Derby.

#12 Chief Wallabee – Has 1 victory in 3 races – defeated twice by #6 Commandment in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Trainer Bill Mott and Jockey Junior Alvarado teamed up to visit the Winner’s Circle on Sovereignty last year here at the Kentucky Derby – so this horse has a great team and a good post position – will need some luck to win outright….but should be considered for Exotics.

#13 Silent Tactic – Scratched

#14 Potente – Has two victories in three lifetime races – and he was the Favorite going into the Santa Anita Derby only to finish behind #8 So Happy. JJ Hernandez has been aboard his last two races and Bob Baffert obviously knows how to win in Kentucky. He’s got a solid post position – and with only three races under his belt – he could be poised to show a little more here in his fourth lifetime race. He’s a dangerous 20-1.

#15 Emerging Market – This horse only has two races under it’s belt….(for a horse should that be “harness”…”Saddle”??) Anyway this horse has 2 Wins in 2 races and punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with a win in the Louisiana Derby over #16 Pavlovian and #19 Golden Tempo. He’s got a fantastic team of Trainer Chad Brown and Jockey Flavien Pratt – according to the interwebs Pratt is on Emerging Market because he had a deal in place with Chad Brown….and not necessarily because he chose this horse over #6 Commandment.

I will say this, the Louisiana Derby winner has let me down many times.  15-1 odds is a tempting pot of Gumbo and he’s got a solid post position and one of the best riders in the country. But I forsee me getting let down again here.

What Emerging Market's Odds looks like to my belly!

#16 Pavlovian – This is a well seasoned horse – 10 Lifetime races – having been in the money 7 out of 10. Won the Sunland Derby in Feb. 2026 / finished behind Emerging Market in Louisiana in March. His rider Maldonado has been aboard for the last two rides. He usually does well at the top of the pack early – so this may not be a good spot for him.

#17 Six Speed – Has 3 victories in 5 Races – however all of his races are overseas. Finished behind Wonder Dean in the UAE Derby. Counting him out for the same reasons as the other two horses from overseas.

#18 Further Ado – Jockey Velazquez has three recent Kentucky Derby Victories (2020, 2017, and 2011). Along with Brad Cox who has a 2021 Kentucky Derby win – this horse has 3 victories in 6 lifetime races – but has won 3 out of the last 4 – including the Blue Grass Stakes.

Morning Line has him at 6-1 – which would make him the 2^nd favorite in his race along with Commandment. Similar to Commandment – this will be Velazquez first race with Further Ado.

But I’ve never been a fan of the Blue Grass Stakes as a Prep Race – the last horse to win both the Blue Grass Stakes AND the Kentucky Derby was Strike the Gold in 1991.

And (for good or bad) that’s the main reason I don’t like Further Ado to win here.

#19 Golden Tempo – Had two early victories at lesser distance in his four race career – but has recently finished 3^rd in his last two races – including the Louisiana Derby behind Emerging Market and Pavlovian – difficult to see where he’s picked up an edge with longer distance and being further outside.

#20 Fulleffort – Scratched

#21 Great White – Has two victories in four races – his last outing he finished 5^th in the Blue Grass Stakes. He has had Jockey Achard for all four races.

#22 Ocelli – Has never won a race in 6 outings…..a victory in the Kentucky Derby would “break” his Maiden. Just a bit of history only 3 horses have broken their maiden in the Kentucky Derby.

1884 – Buchanan (you read that right 1884….BEFORE the Dakota’s were US States).
1933 – Broker’s Tip (When you couldn’t legally celebrate with a Cocktail – because it was the last year of Prohibition. 

And finally 1919 – Sir Barton – the first Triple Crown Winner….hey maybe there is hope??

Here’s how I see the race unfolding:

#1 Renegade – Will run the risk of getting pinned or bottled up early OR give the field a half second start and begin to work the traffic from the back at the beginning of the race --- it’s an impossible choice. My guess is he’ll make a valiant run at the end – but unless he’s blessed with luck I don’t see him finishing better than 4^th. 

I think #4 Litmus Test will attempt to take command of the rail – and may even appear to be in contention for most of the race – but look for him to fade as they come into the final turn.

#6 Commandment – He’ll have the best position early on and certainly has enough kick to win. I think it’s his race to lose – the question is: How well Saez and he will work together.

#8 So Happy – could be the wildcard in this race. He “could” push the early tempo in an attempt to control the lead – which could dictate Commandment’s choices. I trust Mike Smith and his experience with this horse could be a deciding factor – So Happy could be in an early stalking spot close enough to the inside to not be gassed at the end – DANGEROUS 15-1 here.

#9 The Puma, #11 Incredibolt, #12 Chief Wallabee, #14 Potente, #15 Emerging Market and #18 Further Ado – will all be looking for the best spots early to position themselves for a late surge. It will be a toss up to see which horse has the best break from the gate, if any of them get bumped early and who puts themselves in the best position to make a late push.

Closing Speed likes: #6 Commandment / #8 So Happy / #12 Chief Wallabee

If I’m betting $20 to $24 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box: 6, 8, 9, 12 = $24

$1 Exacta Box : 6/8/9/12/14  w 6/8/9/12/14 = $20

Longshots:

$4 Win/Place – #8 = $8
$4 Win/ Place - #7 - $8
$4 Win/Place - $14 = $8

Belmont Stakes 2025

Saratoga
RACE 13 - 7:02 PM
Belmont S. (Grade I)
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One And one 1/4 Miles
Surface – Dirt

1 – Hill Road
2 – Sovereignty                         
3 – Rodriguez
4 – Uncaged                                     
5 – Crudo           
6 – Baeza                           
7 – Journalism
8 – Heart of Honor

Look Mr. Twist - I"m Knocking IT!
Who are we kidding - "Let's Twist again,
Like we did last summer!!"

 

The 2025 Belmont Stakes has a few different twists to it this year -- and I don't care what Chubby Checker says....I'm NOT a fan of some of these Twists!

It’s being held at Saratoga (instead of historic Belmont Park, which is under reconstruction) and it’s once again being run at 1 ¼ miles instead of the traditional 1 ½ miles – so it will be the same distance this year as the Kentucky Derby.

 

Speaking of which - #2 Sovereignty  - won the Kentucky Derby and then skipped the Preakness – his Trainer William Mott is known for making sure to give his horses plenty of time to recuperate – and in this case, even when a Triple Crown and Immortality could be on the line.

Jockey Junior Alvarado will be on board again – and these two have 3 victories in 5 races.

The horse that Sovereignty narrowly beat in Kentucky is the Preakness winner  #7 Journalism. Jockey Umberto Rispoli will be aboard and the two of them have a record of 4 Wins in 6 Races.

Despite the fact that Sovereignty has a recent victory over Journalism – has an inside post, and has had more rest than Journalism --- it’s Journalism who is the morning line favorite at 8/5 odds against Sovereignty’s 2-1 odds….we’ll see who is the favorite come Saturday.

Here’s a look at the rest of the field:

#1 Hill Road – who has 2 wins in 5 attempts – will have Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. on board for the first time. Jockey Flavien Prat was on board for Hill Road’s recent victory in the Peter Pan Stakes – I would be very surprised to see Hill Road break the top 3 against these horses.

#3 Rodriguez – Has 2 wins in 5 races – however he’s hit the board in all 5 races which is likely why the odds makers have him at 6-1. Jockey Mike Smith will be returning to the saddle after these two put a victory in the Wood Memorial, which was Rodriguez last race before suffering a Hoof Bruise.

Rewind the clock back to March and you’d see Rodriguez finished 3^rd against Journalism – but beat #6 Baeza – back in January. I don’t think this horse is ready to pull off an upset victory – but with a little luck Rodriguez could be in contention to finish 2^nd or 3^rd.

#4 Uncaged – has two victories in 4 lifetime races. This will be his first race with Luis Saez and in his most recent race he finished 6^th in the Peter Pan stakes losing to #1 Hill Road. His morning odds have him at 30-1…..I don’t think this horse has much of a shot here.

#5 Crudo – Has picked up 2 wins in 3 Races – and has saddled up with John Velazquez in all three of his races. I think both this horse and Rodriquez will look to set the pace.

** If it ends up being a muddy run at Saratoga – the two early pace setters could definitely make this race closer than if it were a firm and fast track.

#6 Baeza – Going off as the 3^rd favorite (4-1) -  he only has 1 win in 5 attempts – but he’ll have Flavien Prat on board and his most recent finishes were a 2^nd place finish against Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby and a 3^rd place finish behind both Journalism and Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby.

Solid horse – he’s definitely a horse that could finish 2^nd or 3^rd….. I just don’t think he can make it to 1^st against the two favorites.

#8 Heart of Honor – In his last race he finished 5th in the Preakness. This horse had some success in the Middle East picking up 3 places in Stakes races before trying his luck in the US. He currently sits at 30-1, I would need at least 50-1 odds to consider him coming in for a “Show” (3^rd place).

Rodriguez and Crudo sounds like
a cooking show that
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
would totally watch!

 

How I see the race:

#3 Rodriguez and #5 Crudo will look to take the opening lead – a reasonable pace would be 23+ in the first quarter…..if the clock has them going 22 seconds….they could be setting themselves up for a fade in the final turn.

 

#2 Sovereignty, #6 Baeza and #7 Journalism will run middle of the pack – the question here will be if Sovereignty decides to sit further back to prevent getting boxed in by either of these two of if he takes the rail and expects a hole to open up in the final turn – bit of a chess match we’ll have to watch unfold.

If Sovereignty sits back – the question then is – will Baeza and Journalism set themselves up closer to the front so they have more room to make their move --- or sit back and see which of these three horses makes the first move going into the final turn??

Unfortunately I don’t have an original answer in this one – I like Journalism to narrowly defeat Sovereignty in this one with Baeza finishing 3^rd – just a slight change from the Kentucky Derby finish.

Closing Speed likes:  Journalism, Sovereignty, Baeza

I don’t love this race with these odds to bet – I think you have to drop one of the top three favorites and add Rodriquez and/or Crudo to pull off a wire to wire type upset to make any money here.

$1 Box Exacta – 2,3,5,7 = $12

$1 Box Trifecta – 2,3,5,7 = $24

However I WOULD consider a Pick 5 or Pick 4 in these races.

Race 9: #2 – Think Big  (If My Boy Prince wins I'll be very disappointed in myself!)

Race 10: #1 – Zulu Kingdom  (#4 Flying Mohawk as a Back-up)

Race 11: #3 Macho Music / #4 Patch Adams / #5 Citizen Bull / #7 Colloquial  (#2 Madaket Road as a back-up)

Race 12: #6 Spirit of St. Louis / #9 Far Bridge  (#2 Integration as a back-up)

Race 13: #2 Sovereignty / #7 Journalism

A 50 cent Pick 5 or Pick 4 will cost you $8
A $1 Pick 5 or Pick 4 will cost you $16

Preakness Stakes 2025

 

Pimlico Race Track
RACE 13 – 7:01 PM
Preakness S. (Grade I)
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One And 3/16ths  Mile
Surface – Dirt

1 – Goal Oriented
2 – Journalism                               
3 –American Promise
4 – Heart of Honor
5 – Pay Billy
6 – River Thames                             
7 – Sandman
8 – Clever Again
9 - Gosger

Without the Kentucky Derby Winner Sovereignty in this race – I think most of America would consider this The “Pointless” Stakes….and I wouldn’t blame them at all!

I’ve written and erased about five paragraphs attempting
to say the following – Horse Racing simply needs to do a better job of engaging the American Public and possible fans – I believe the casual fan only has two questions at this time – Will there be a successful Triple Crown this year OR when will the Kentucky Derby Champion run again?

Your disappointing answers:

1^st There will be no Triple Crown attempt this year
2^nd We don’t know when Sovereignty will run again.

With that…..let’s take a look at the field.

#1 Goal Oriented  - The 6-1 horse has Flavien Prat aboard and has two victories in two lifetime outings. This will be his first attempt against serious talent – and he’s never raced further than 1 mile 1/16^th – if this horse has the room he may attempt to set the pace and go wire to wire.

#2 Journalism – the runner-up in the Kentucky Derby (who was the favorite to win in that race) is the heavy favorite at 8/5 odds. This horse had 4 straight wins coming into the Kentucky Derby and is certainly the horse with the best resume in the field –unless this horse is absolutely gassed from running two weeks ago – this is his race to lose.

#3 American Promise – Finished a VERY disappointing 16^th in the Kentucky Derby – however this horse has 10 lifetime races and I think his 15-1 odds are interesting. Nik Juarez will be aboard again having been his rider in his last two races.

#4 Heart of Honor – travels from the UAE to take a shot at an American Graded Stakes race. This horse has 2 wins and 4 places in his lifetime 6 races and he’s seen some serious talent. I’m not a fan of overseas horses in their first race in the US – however the talent and size of the field is certainly lesser here than in the Kentucky Derby. Going off at 12-1 is very intriguing.

#5 Pay Billy – Going off at 20-1 this horse has 4 wins in 8 lifetime races – however this will be a jump in class for him --- but with rider Raul Mena this horse has 1 place and 4 wins in 5 attempts. I like that ownership is rolling the dice in this one!

After writing about Sandman
I'll have the Spiderman theme
in my head all day!

#6 River Thames – 9/2 odds for a horse that finished 3^rd in the Bluegrass Stakes. 2 Wins, 1 Place and 1 Show in 4 lifetime races. I have no idea what they think this horse is near three times better with odds than Heart of Honor who has actually beaten really good horses?

#7 Sandman – finished a very disappointing 7^th in the Kentucky Derby – I’ll be the first one to tell you I have sour grapes about this horse because I went between he and Sovereignty to finish out my Kentucky Derby bets….and I went with Sandman --- a case of don’t hate the player hate the game. This horse won the Arkansas Derby and couldn’t make the late run in the mud at Churchhill Downs.

I would also favor this horse over River of Thames.

#8 Clever Again – In three lifetime races this horse has 2 Wins and 1 Place – and both wins were with Jose Ortiz aboard. He’s going off at 5-1 – I think the odds are too low for a horse that hasn’t really beaten anyone in three races – what’s interesting to me is compare him to the horse on his right:

#9 Gosger – a 20-1 horse with 2 Wins and 1 Place who recently won the Lexington Stakes (G3) – granted he DID win that race with Jose Ortiz aboard and will have Luis Saez on board for the first time – I appreciate that a different rider can make a difference – but I’m not sure Clever Again should be considered “That” much of a favorite over this horse.

I believe #1 Goal Oriented and #8 Clever Again will set the early pace – from what I’ve seen out of Goal Oriented he will do very well taking the rail and he’s also a very patient horse.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah 
appreciates being both
Goal Oriented and Clever Again 

I believe #2 Journalism, #4 Heart of Honor, #6 River Thames and #7 Sandman will huddle in the middle of the pack until we get close or into the 2^nd turn.

Coming out of the 2^nd turn I believe Clever Again may begin to fade against the rest of the pack – as the middle pack picks up steam.

Goal Oriented will come out of the 2^nd turn and have gained some ground – and I believe Journalism will overtake Goal Oriented by a head – Sandman, Heart of Honor and River Thames will fight it out for the show.

Closing Speed likes:  Journalism, Goal Oriented, Sandman

$1 Box Trifecta – 1,2,4,7 = $24
$1 Box Exacta – 1,2,4,7 = $24

From a bettors standpoint – I think this is an excellent opportunity to place bets on Pick 3 bets – meaning you’re betting on Races 11 / 12 / 13 or 12/13/14.

Race 11; Horses 3/6/7/8
Race 12: Horses 6/8/10/13
Race 13: Journalism #2
Race 14: Horses 2/6/8/9

A Pick 3 will cost you $16

Kentucky Derby 2025

Churchill Downs  – May 3rd, 2025
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $5,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface - Dirt

 

1 – Citizen Bull 2 – Neoequos 3 – Final Gambit 4 – Rodriguez 5 – American Promise 6 – Admire Daytona 7 – Luxor Café 8 –  Journalism 9 –  Burham Square 10 –  Grande 11 – Flying Mohawk 12 – East Avenue 13 – Publisher 14 – Tiztastic 15 – Render Judgment 16 – Coal Battle 17 – Sandman 18 – Sovereignty 19 – Chunk of Gold 20 –  Owen Almighty 21 – Baeza

The very first thing I would say about a Kentucky Derby field like this one is:

"Don’t over think it!"

That being written…..now watch me completely overthink this. 

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
wonders why no one ever says
 "Don't UNDER think things"?

#1 Citzen Bull – Your Juvenile Breeders Cup Champion and winner of 4 straight with Martin Garcia aboard, before they finished 4^th in the Santa Anita Derby draws a terrible post – and in my experience will need a TON of luck to make anything work out of the 1 hole – finishing top 4 should be considered an admirable run. Keep an eye out for him in the Preakness. 

#2 Neoequos – could look to take the early lead if he can escape – will likely get swallowed up early and hasn’t shown a late kick to threaten here – also Flavian Prat switched from this horse to #21 Baeza – that’s a cue from one of the best Jockeys in this field. 

#3 Final Gambit – At 30-1 this horse has my interest. He finished 1^st in his last outing the Jeff Ruby Stakes – and his running style is to close late which will help with this post position – he also closed strongly in his victory and he and Jockey Luan Machado have 2 Wins and a Place in his last three outings.

I once defeated Peanut Butter Whiskey
True Story!

Recent Jeff Ruby Stakes winners to win a KY Derby are Mage (2022), Rich Strike (2021)

But this is a steep climb in competition…..in January this horse was beaten by a horse named Peanutbutter Whiskey…..then again I’ve also taken a few losses to Peanutbutter Whiskey.

 #5 American Promise – for reasons I am unfamiliar with the Virginia Derby has moved from July and September to March….so this will be one the first time a Virginia Derby winner will enter the Kentucky Derby. At 30-1 this horse also has my interest – he’s been beaten in previous races by a number of horses in this race – but looks like he can handle the distance well and could be the horse to set the pace. (Sired by 2018 Triple Crown Winner Justify)

#6 Admire Daytona (JPN) – UAE Derby winner- twice beaten by #7  Luxor Café.  UAE Derby and Japanese horses have never done very well in the KY Derby – could it finally happen, sure….but I’d save your cash.

#7 Luxor Café (JPN) – Great post position, 4 straight wins in 3 Stakes Races. I don’t know what it is exactly, but these young horses from Japan and the UAE don’t tend to do well in the Kentucky Derby. This horse could absolutely finish top 5 – but I just haven’t seen a trend breaker here yet. (Sired by 2015 Triple Crown Winner American Pharoah).

#8 Journalism – The favorite at 3-1 morning odds and for good reason – winner of 4 straight / 3 of those wins with rider Umberto Rispoli including the most recent: Santa Anita Derby. He has a great post position and should be able to position himself into a perfect spot to win this race. The two concerns are he hasn’t been in very large fields before (several of these horses have) and he’s only raced in California. But a victory in the Santa Anita Derby makes him a contender.

#9 Burnham Square – Even though this horse has intriguing odds (12-1) is on the outside shoulder of the favorite – I DO NOT TRUST the Bluegrass Stakes – it will fool you like decaf coffee on a hungover morning….it may LOOK right, it may feel right….but it will not BE right! This is a good horse that has won 3 out of 6 lifetime races – Rider Brian Hernandez Jr. won the KY Derby last year – I just don’t trust the Bluegrass.

Not East Avenue
But still funny.

#11 Flying Mohawk – finished behind #3 Final Gambit in their last race. He’s going off at 30-1 this is the kind of horse with this post position who could sneak into the top 5. I just don’t think he could finish better than 3^rd in this race.

#12 East Avenue – Finished 2^nd in the Blue Grass Stakes behind #9 Burnham Square – it would not surprise me to see East Avenue be cut loose in the first half mile and lead the pack. But I would expect him to fade coming out of the final turn. If the track is muddy – keep an eye on this one – at 20-1 he could shoot to take the lead and slop his way home to the winners circle if the mud exhausts the field.

#13 Publisher – this will be his first race with rider Irad Ortiz, as Flavien Prat also decided not to board this horse either. This horse finished a strong 2^nd in the Arkansas Derby, but hasn’t been consistent and again – listen to Flavien Prat. Publisher also seems most comfortable sitting WAY in the back for most of the race and with 18 other horses in this one – I think it will be too much of a challenge for this horse.

#14 Tiztastic – 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Joel Rosario will be aboard the Louisiana Derby winner. The Louisiana Derby switched over from 1 mile and 1/8^th to 1 mile and 3/16 a few years ago which may help prepare horses for the distance of 1 mile and 1/4 . This horse looked strong coming down to the wire.

At 20-1 this horse has my interest – he’s got a great spot, looks good for the distance and the Jockey knows how to win here.

#15 Render Judgement – (sired by Blame) has finished 5^th / 2^nd / 8^th and 3^rd in his last four races. And has a new rider aboard in Julien Leparoux – I don’t see anything here -- granted I'm also still upset that Blame (the sire) beat Zenyatta 15 years ago in the Breeders Cup.

LOVED Zenyatta....but a Bobblehead Zenyatta??

#16 Coal Battle – with trainer Lonnie Briley and Jockey Juan Vargas this horse has 5 Wins / a Place and a Fourth Finish out of 7 races. Finished 3^rd behind Sandman and Publisher in the Arkansas Derby – I can see this horse finishing 3^rd at best – consider for exotic bets.

#17 Sandman – Jose Ortiz will be back aboard – and rode Sandman to victory in the Arkansas Derby. In the last 5 races Sandman has 2 Wins / A place and 2 Shows – and was beaten by Coal Battle in February. Not a lot of winning consistency here for a 6-1 horse. 

His ride In the Arkansas Derby was very solid – he’ll sit in the middle of the pack and can go wide and still pull off a win – I understand the 6-1 odds from that race….I just don’t love those odds here.

#18 Sovereignty  - Finished 2^nd in the Florida Derby to Tappan Street (due to injury couldn’t run here). Sovereignty will likely sit in the back of the pack and make a late run – He’s got a good post position and he’ll be able to melt into the pack whenever they like – but I don’t love a 5-1 horse who has to get through a wall of horses to win.

Between Sandman and Sovereignty – I like Sandman’s position and racing style more.

 #19 Chunk of Gold – 30-1 and finished a notable 2^nd behind Tiztastic in the Louisiana Derby – I like this horse quite a bit and his Jockey Jareth Loveberry has a name that sounds like he should be from a Jane Austen novel – but I think this horse will be lucky to finish top 6. Maybe consider in Exotics.

A bit of irony here – Chunk of Gold was purchased for $2,500 October 2023
Baeza and Sandman were purchased for $1,200,000 each.

I say...Jareth Loveberry at your service m'lady!

#20 Owen Almighty – finished a disappointing 6^th in the Blue Grass Stakes – but has 3 Wins and 2 Places in 7 lifetime races. His usual Jockey Ortiz will be riding #17 Sandman

#21 Baeza – ridden by 2019 Kentucky Derby winner Flavien Prat finished 2^nd behind Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. With Prat aboard I like the 12-1 odds on this horse – however Prat has never ridden this horse in a race!

 As I see the race – the gates will fly open and #1 Citizen Bull and #2 Neoequos will get swallowed up quickly by the pack – Citizen Bull may show up late, but I doubt it.

#3 Final Gambit will hit the brakes and wait until the last turn to make a move – if he finds the right hole, could be an upset!

If #5 American Promise gets a clean break and can take the rail early – he’s got a shot to dictate his own race. I don’t trust this horse to hold the lead and not burn out – my guess is he fades late OR he gets boxed in going into the first turn – same could be said for #20 East Avenue.

#8 Journalism will position himself mid-pack and when they hit the final turn will look to make his move. If they give this horse open track in front of him – he’ll likely be in the Winner’s Circle.

#9 Burnham Square **Should stalk Journalism and dictate how the middle of the pack will run – but my guess is this horse will come out flustered and/or flat like many Bluegrass Stakes winners before him.

#14 Tiztastic needs some luck – he’ll need to find a spot middle of the pack inside – hope that he doesn’t go too far wide in the first turn or try to dictate the lead. If this horse is patient and finds a hole late he could finish top 3.

#17 Sandman & #18 Sovereignty  - will battle for position – I’m afraid Sandman will want the top of the pack early and will go wide – I think he fades late. I like Sovereignty to be more patient and finish strong in the end.

#21 Baeza – Prat is one of the best in the business (if not THE best) – but first time out with this horse??

Closing Speed likes: Journalism / Tiztastic / Final Gambit and Sandman

If I’m betting $20 to $24 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box: 3, 8, 14, 17 = $24

$1 Exacta Box : 3/8/14/17/21 w 3/8/14/17/21 = $20

Longshots:

$4 Win/Place – #14 = $8
$4 Win/ Place - #5 - $8
$4 Win/Place - $3 = $8

Belmont Stakes - 2024

 SARATOGA
RACE 12 - 6:41 PM
Belmont S. (Grade I)
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One and one 1/4 Miles
Surface – Dirt

1 – Seize the Grey
2 – Resilience                           
3 – Mystik Dan
4 – The Wine Steward                                   
5 – Antiquarian   
6 – Dornoch                           
7 – Protective
8 – Honor Marie
9 – Sierra Leone
10 – Mindframe

For the few of us that will follow the Belmont Stakes without a Triple Crown on the line – the 2024 Belmont offers a few unique twists.

Let's set out on Wednesday for a Picnic
at Jerome Park for Saturday's Belmont Stakes
I believe they've begun calling this
area the Bronx.

 

First it’s at Saratoga Race Track (instead of at Belmont) – Saratoga marks the Fourth Race Track that the Belmont Stakes have been held at since the first one in 1867 – however all of the Belmont Stakes since 1905 have been at Belmont Park, until 2024.

Traditionally the Belmont Stakes is 1 ½ miles --- this year it will be shortened to the same distance as the Kentucky Derby 1 ¼ miles.

The next bit of interest is that in recent years, it’s not often you have separate winners in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and both decide to continue racing in the Belmont.

 Let’s begin with the Preakness Winner - #1 Seize the Grey. Seize the Grey may have caught an early break in the Preakness as the horse to his immediate right (Just Steel) angled to the right coming out of the gate and allowed Seize the Grey ample space to maneuver early.

Seize the Grey took the early lead and never relinquished it. His trip was impressive especially considering it was a muddy track and he remained unfazed. Rider Jaime Torres is back aboard and together they’ve produced back to back trips to the Winner’s Circle.

Seize the Grey is a surprising 8-1 (the fourth favorite) in this race. Seize the Grey has raced twice at Saratoga (2023) and has a Win and a Show at this track. I appreciate that this horse has an unfortunate starting spot and may not be a fan of the distance --- but he’s shown that he likes this track….I wouldn’t count him out.

#2 Resilience – The Wood Memorial winner returns to New York – however his most recent outing was his 6^th place finish in the Kentucky Derby.  Junior Alvarado was his jockey in the KY Derby and returns for the Belmont. 

10-1 odds make Resilience an interesting horse to add to Trifecta or even an Exacta – he’ll have relatively fresh legs and could be a threat to break the top 3 in this field.

Also the #18th spot in the Kentucky Derby may have really worked against this horse - he likes being up front early and wasn't able to position himself there in the KY Derby. Could be a much different horse if he can take the lead early.

#3 Mystik Dan – Winner of the KY Derby and Second place finisher in the Preakness is being listed as the third favorite at 5-1 odds. In his last 4 races – Mystik Dan has two wins, a place and a show.

He and Seize the Grey will be the only two horses who ran twice in May – and considering that this is likely to be the longest races they’ll ever run in their lifetime, there’s some concern for fatigue.

Other than that – this horse has shown he knows how to finish in the money – very risky to drop him from any Exacta or Trifecta bets.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
prefers NOT to be associated
with the painful puns and
word play of this blog

 

 

#4 The Wine Steward – *** The first foal this Colt Sires – I would have to name Chardoneigh…how about Zinfoaldel? Rosehay all Day? Run for Rose’s?.....okay, I promise I’m done.

The New York Bred - The Wine Steward won his first 3 races, and placed in his next 3…..finishing immediately behind #5 Antiquarian in the Peter Pan Stakes on May 11^th. His last three rides were with Luis Saez who will be riding #6 Dornoch.

I love the horse’s name – and I like his post position – but the step up in competition I believe will keep this Wine Steward in the cellar…..and not the one with the good wine!

#5 Antiquarian – Fresh from a Peter Pan Stakes victory – this horse offers 2 wins and a place in 4 lifetime races – and the return of John Velazquez on board.

In March this horse finished 6^th in the Louisiana Derby (Behind #8 Honor Marie) and I don’t see anything about this horse that may indicate he’s a solid choice for the distance or against this competition.

#6 Dornoch – Finished 5^th against Sierra Leone in the Bluegrass Stakes and 10^th in the Kentucky Derby.  Luis Saez has been his Jockey 6 out of 7 lifetime starts.

** Defeated Sierra Leone back in December – but hasn’t been able to meet the challenge since then.

#7 Protective – Finished 3^rd behind Antiquarian and The Wine Steward in the Peter Pan Stakes and 3^rd behind Resilience in the Wood Memorial.

This will be Tyler Gaffalione’s first trip with this horse. He’s the 20-1 longshot for these reasons – I think he should be closer to 30-1 or even 50-1….however Gaffalione has been the Jockey for the favorite #9 Sierra Leone for his last three races…..there is some intrigue here.

#8 Honor Marie – Has Florent Geroux on board for the first time – finished 8^th in the Kentucky Derby after getting off to a rough start.

This horse has some late closing ability – There’s a slight chance this horse will take to this distance and finish in a 3^rd spot….but I’m not a buyer at 12-1…..(maybe 30-1).

#9 Sierra Leone – is the 9/5 favorite and the reason I have to now consider the Blue Grass Stakes worth considering.

Birds-eye Photo Finish in the
2024 Kentucky Derby

In 5 lifetime races this horse has 3 Wins and 2 Places – most recently finishing 2^nd behind Mystik Dan in the Kentucky Derby.

The “likely” reason this horse is the favorite is that – this horse closes late and his run in the Kentucky Derby gave some evidence that he’ll have the distance in him.

Also unlike the Derby he won’t have to go 10 wide in the final turn.

However – this will be Flavien Prat’s first race with this horse – Prat is one of the best (if not currently THE best) Jockey in the game….but he’s never won a Belmont Stakes.

The morning line believes this horse will benefit from having fewer horses to weave through coming out of the final turn and…..the morning line also believes that skipping the Preakness will give this horse the fresher legs for this race….and I see where the morning line is coming from – but 9/5 on a horse for “potential” and a new Jockey…… with all things considered I don’t love these odds.

#10 Mindframe – Speaking of Great Jockeys – Irad Ortiz Jr, has won two recent Belmont Stakes  (2022 / 2016) and in Mindframe’s 2 Lifetime races has two victories.

Ortiz has also been a top rider here at Saratoga for the last two years.

Mindframe has shown some remarkable potential…..but this will be his first opportunity to meet Grade 1 stakes winners.

I appreciate he’s got one of the best Jockeys in the nation on board – and I appreciate that this horse has won his last two races by 13 and 7 lengths….and he has fresher legs having not raced since May 4^th.

But 7/2 odds…..better than a Kentucky Derby Winner AND Preakness Winner (who beat the Kentucky Derby Winner)?

If you've never seen a horse "glide" before - watch Mindframe in his first race.

Here's how I see the race - IF Seize the Grey is able to break free from the 1 spot and own the rail for the entire race I think he could very well win this race......but he'll need the best release out of the gate he's ever had.

IF Resilience grabs the early lead and the rail - I think he finishes top 3 - but the question is, which one of these two horses will get the early jump?

Mystik Dan is also in an excellent spot to own the inside for the shorter trip -- and no matter how it shakes out for the first three - I expect Mindframe to stalk the leaders mid-pack, and for Sierra Leone to keep an eye on Mindframe.

I think Mystik Dan will come out of the final turn with the lead and eventually lose ground to Sierra Leone and then we'll see if Mindframe is as dominate as people believe or if Seize the Grey and Resilience can take one of the top spots.

Closing Speed likes: Sierra Leone / Mystik Dan / Resilience.

For the record I'm rooting for Seize the Grey - I'm a big fan of what MyRaceHorse is trying to accomplish.....and also I just like the horse - I think he and Mystik Dan are very close in talent and if they switched post positions I'd likely switch their spots.

From a betting perspective - rarely do I like Superfectas....but:

Superfecta Box: 1/2/3/9/10 -- (30 cents will cost a total of $36).

Trifecta Box: 1/2/3/9/10 - (50 cents will cost a total of $30)

Seize the Grey 6/1 odds or higher - I'd put $5 / $10 to win
Resilience 10/1 odds or higher - $5 Win or Place
Mystik Dan 6/1 odds or higher - $5 / $10 to win
Mindframe 10/1 odds or higher - $5 / $10 to win

2024 Preakness Stakes

Pimlico Race Track..
RACE 13 – 7:01 PM
Preakness S. (Grade I)
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One And 3/16ths  Mile
Surface – Dirt

1 – Mugatu
2 – Uncle Heavy                                                              
3 –Catching Freedom
4 – Muth                            
5 – Mystik Dan
6 – Seize the Grey                         
7 – Just Steel
8 – Tuscan Gold
9 - Imagination

I have to imagine that most people who follow horse racing believe the best three year old horses in the nation will be absent from The Preakness.

Fierceness, who faded in the Kentucky Derby – was the Florida Derby and Juvenile Champion.

Sierra Leone who missed by a nostril in the Kentucky Derby is out – although I’m hoping for a Belmont Stakes run – it looks like it would be a great distance for this horse.

And Arkansas Derby winner #4 Muth scratched.

Leaving us with a field of 8….and very little competition for Kentucky Derby Winner #5 Mystik Dan.

Let’s begin with #1 Mugatu – who’s last  victory was with Joe Bravo aboard in November 2023. He has two 3^rd place showings in his last 5 races…..and his best races are at One Mile….the extra 3/16ths are likely going to be too much for this horse. Outside of Bravo being back, not much to believe in here.

#2 Uncle Heavy – (Which sadly is NOT some kind of mash-up of Uncle Buck and the Sopranos) 

You woke up this morning...
Got a blue moon in your eyes

 – he switches to Irad Ortiz for his first new jockey in 5 Lifetime races – and he does have 3 wins in 5 attempts. He last raced  April 6^th, finishing 5^th against lack luster talent, but he may have some fresher legs coming into this race. He hasn’t raced against much talent….but at 20-1, in the rain, he may be worth a thought in this one…..but only if the odds are good!

 #4 Catching Freedom – The Louisiana Derby winner  finished 4^th behind Mystik Dan in the Kentucky Derby….and is the next closest finisher to participate in both races. His Jockey Flavien Prat is one of the best in the business and they were gaining some ground in the final furlongs at Twin Spires. He’s the second favorite and could be the one to steal a victory from Mystik Dan.

#5 Mystik Dan – Kenneth McPeek has been a GREAT Trainer this year and I’m certainly happy that he’s found major success and Brian Hernandez returns as Mystik Dan's rider – having ridden this horse 6 of his 7 races and his last three straight.

Mystik Dan had the perfect ride in the Kentucky Derby….you really can’t write it up better that that. Coming out of the three hole this horse found enough space to take the rail early and wait for the final turn to open up. Coming out of the turn Mystik Dan stuck to the rail and charged up the final furlongs with nothing in front of him -- He received JUST the luck he needed as Fierceness faded, and Sierra Leone didn’t have enough time to catch up.

 
Part of the problem of having confidence in this horse is the “luck” part.  

In March he finished 3^rd behind Muth and #7 Just Steel.

In Februrary he beat Just Steel in a Mile 1/16^th.

In January he finished 5^th behind Catching Freedom and Just Steel.

In the Kentucky Derby this horse proved that he could win at this distance and had the discipline and nerve to take the rail and wait for his moment…….OR (like his other races) is this horse about to regress?

I’m not sure he should be sitting at 5/2 odds.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
enjoys a positive affirmation
with a play on words!
Seize the Grey indeed!

#6 Seize the Grey – Rider Jaime Torres returns after a successful stakes race on Kentucky Derby Day. Out of 9 races this horse has 3 Wins and 3 Shows – finished a very disappointing 7^th in Keeneland against Sierra Leone and Just a Touch. I wish this horse had fresher legs…as he also raced just two weeks ago – but I think 15-1 are good odds for this horse. Don’t know that he’s got a win in him here, but like his chance to make the top 3.

#7 Just Steel – This horse has had 12 Lifetime races and earned 2 Wins, 4 Places, 1 Show…..and also finished 17^th in the Kentucky Derby.  Just Steel offered up the early speed in the last race and will likely be at the top to begin this race as well. Again, not fresh legs here and really faded in his last race….the intriguing part to me is that in his last 5 races Just Steel has finished 2^nd in three of those races and out of the money in the other two.

This horse finished immediately behind Muth in March (but ahead of Mystik Dan), behind Mystik Dan in February, and behind Catching Freedom in January.

#8 Tuscan Gold – Only three lifetime races and two in 2024 – finished 3^rd in March behind Catching Freedom and comes in with very fresh legs and Tyler Gaffailione on board.  A little bit of an unknown factor here. Watch his odds.

#9 Imagination – Out of 6 Lifetime races this horse has 2 Wins and 4 Places. After winning the San Felipe in Santa Anita, Imagination finished 2^nd in the Santa Anita Derby. This is another horse with Fresh legs.

I don’t think Mugatu or Uncle Heavy have much to offer in this race – although if it’s a sloppy track it could be a weird race day…..but still I’m knocking these two out of contention.

I think Catching Freedom with Flavien Prat are going to be able to position themselves well with Mystik Dan……Mystik I believe will be looking to grab the inside again....we'll see if Catching Freedom blocks him from the rail.

It will be interesting if Just Steel decides to just run with Mystik Dan and not push the tempo – that being said I don’t love the change in Jockey for Just Steel – Rosario has had success with this horse, but it’s been more than a year.

Seize the Grey will likely also run towards the front of the pack – there’s a chance Seize the Grey and Just Steel fade due to a fast early speed…..and both of these horses have only had two weeks off.

Tuscan Gold is a mystery ---- I’d like better odds here.

Imagination may need the lead in this race and coming out of the 9^th spot in Mud isn’t selling me – BUT this horse is ONLY real contender that is coming in fresh.

My big questions
What the hell is Tuscan Gold going to do?
Will Seize the Grey ,  Just Steel and Imagination find themselves in an early speed battle and fade?
And will Mystik Dan be able to hold off a late charging Catching Freedom?

I’m rooting for Mystik Dan – but,

How many times did I mention Fresh Legs?
I'm like a ZZ Top Special Dance Mix!

Closing Speed likes:   

Catching Freedom, Mystik Dan, Tuscan Gold

*** If there's lots of SLOP- give me Imagination, Mystik Dan and Catching Freedom

$1 Box Trifecta – 3,5,7.9 = $24

$10 - #6 Seize the Grey to Win
$10 - #7 Just Steel to Win