TAMPA BAY - February 02, 2013
Race 11 - 5:23 PM
Sam F. Davis S. (Grade III)
Purse - $250,000
Distance - One And One Sixteenth Miles
1 – Northern Lion
1A – Dynamic Sky
2 – Silver Day
3 – Divine Ambition
4 – My Name Is Michael
5 – Speak Logistics
6 – Lighting Stone
7 – Balino
8- Falling Sky
9- Midnite Poppa
There are three great prep races this Saturday….but I don’t
see any of them being very competitive.
Out of Aqueduct in the Withers Stakes Revolutionary has a
morning line of 3/5 odds – and will likely win with ease as long as the weather
cooperates.
Only four horses will enter the Robert B. Lewis Stakes
out of Santa Anita where Flashback also carries 3/5 Morning line odds. I’m not
as convinced about Flashback….but when you pick three horses every race,
covering a four horse race seems like a timid offer.
So without an upset option in either of these races, I
decided to take a peek at the Sam F. Davis Stakes in Tampa.
#1A Dynamic Sky will be the headliner and favorite in
this outing – in a race that reassembles some of the same players from the
Pasco Stakes from three weeks ago, where Dynamic Sky won with relative ease
over (#3 Drive Ambition, who showed, #2
Silver Day who finished 6th, and #6 Lightening Stone who finished 7th).
While I do like Dynamic Sky in this race – he’s run twice
at 1 1/16th miles….and finished 6th in the Breeders Cup
Juvenile and 2nd in the Breeder’s Futurity – so there could be a
horse better prepared for the distance in this one.
#1 Northern Lion recently enjoyed his first victory in
three attempts and earned that victory at this distance. He’ll be moving up
against better talent in this race, but he could be on the upswing.
#3 Drive Ambition intrigues me --- he’s only got two
races under his belt – and one of them was a 6 furlong victory. I like his post
position, and I like his 8/1 odds here – the problem is he certainly didn’t
show much stamina in the Pasco.
#4 My Name Is Michael has one victory in four attempts
and is coming off of a 63 day lay-off.
He’s currently slated at 4/1 odds – and that may be, because his last
race was 1 1/16th and he finished 2nd. I like this horse
but I think he’ll struggle to crack the top 3.
#5 Speak Logistics is coming off a disappointing 7th
place finish in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile – however before the big money race
he had won two in a row. He’s currently going off as the second favorite at
3/1, however he’s coming off the longest layoff here – 93 days….which could be
time well spent training and growing…..then again it could be a lot of rust to
shake off for a young horse?
#7 Balino goes off as the 30/1 longshot….he’s won his
last two outings…a 7 Furlong and a Mile. If he stays above 20-1 odds I think he
makes an interesting Win or Place bet.
#8 Falling Sky (who is a half brother to Northern Lion –
both sired by Lion Heart) has won 2 out of 3 attempts --- however his longest
attempt was merely 6.5 furlongs and I think his current odds of 5/1 are too optimistic
--- I see Falling Sky as being closer to 8/1 or 10/1 before I like money on
him.
 |
| Strangely Sensitive Cheetah is the Midnite Poppa of the jungle cats....aw yeah! |
Midnite Pappa pulled out his first victory, out of three
attempt in his last race. Unlike Falling Sky, I kind of like the odds on
Midnite Pappa --- I think he could surprise here….then again I could see him
finishing last too.
I really believe Dynamic Sky is beatable in this race so….
Closing Speed likes: 5,1,9
I sticking with the thought that Dynamic Sky will
struggle here so I’m offering this Exacta as my bet.
$1 Exacta ---- 3,5,7,9 w/ 1.5 = $7
