Tampa Bay Derby 2015

Tampa Bay Derby
Date/Track: 3/7/15 - Tampa Bay Downs
Post Time: 5:23 pm EST
Distance:  1 1/16 (Dirt)

Diving Rod
Ocean Knight
Carpe Diem
Ami's Flatter
My Johnny Be Good
Souper Colossal
Great Stuff
Moonlight Bandit
Danzig Moon

For #1 Diving Rod, #2 Ocean Knight, #4 Ami's Flatter and #5 My Johnny Be Good this will be a rematch of the Sam F. Davis Stakes - see video below:

The morning line of this race has Ocean Knight going off at 2/1 odds and Diving Rod going off at 6/1 odds  -- which seems like a sizable gap considering Ocean Knight barely won this race with a nod of his head.

For those who have followed racing for some time - Ocean Knight was sired by 2007 Preakness Winner (and one of my favorites) Curlin -- and they have a very similar running style.

However the "prime time" morning line favorite is #3 Carpe Diem - who finished 2nd in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Carpe Diem may be the most talented horse in the field however he hasn't seized the race in over 120 days.

I certainly have my reservations about a young horse having that much time off and then making him the favorite -- so this race could be prime for an upset -- well maybe a "mild" upset.

A horse that I think is flying under the radar in this one is: #6 Souper Colossal - and his last race can be seen here:

After watching this video
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
can't get the song
"Moon River"
out of his head.

If Carpe Diem can shake off the rust and can return to his late fall stride -- he'll be very difficult to defeat in his one.

However I'm going to take a little bit of a chance and.....

Closing Speed likes: Ocean Knight, Souper Colossal, and Carpe Diem.

I like a $2 Exacta Box of Ocean Knight / Souper Colossal and Diving Rod. ($6)

I can't help but add this last video for Robin Williams:

Tampa Bay Derby - 2014

TAMPA BAY - March 08, 2014

Race 11 - 5:25 PM

Tampa Bay Derby   (Grade II)

Purse - $350,000

Distance - One And One Sixteenth Miles

Surface – Dirt

Ring Weekend

Surfing U.S.A.

Matador

Coltimus Prime

Conquest Titan

Vinceremos

East Hall

Cousin Stephen

My Kodiak Warrior

Tuscan Getaway

There are two reasons I believe these horses entered the Tampa Bay Derby – the first is to secure a portion of the 85 Kentucky Derby points available in this race…..the winner would essentially be secured a spot to the big dance in May.

The second (and no less important) reason is that none of these horses want to be in a position of “needing” points and have to face Cairo Prince in the Florida Derby.  He may be the Prince of Cairo – but he’s currently the KING of Florida.

As you’ll see in the video – #5 Conquest Titan lands a distant second against Cairo Prince in the Holy Bull….and Conquest Titan could likely be the favorite in this race when the gates open.

Link to Video:
Holy Bull Stakes

It will be very interesting to see what the strategy will be for any number of these horses.

There are three long shots who I believe will attempt to take the lead going into or coming out of the first turn.

#1 Ring Weekend has the rail and while going for the early lead isn’t necessarily his racing style I think due to his post position and the competition around him – they may attempt to stay at the front of the pack.

My biggest concern with Ring Weekend is that he was sired by Tapit….and Tapit horses always seem to get the best of me.

Ring Weekend also has three races at this distance -- and he won his last one....he's in a great spot to surprise here.

#4 Coltimus Prime is another long shot (15-1) that could bolt for an early lead in this race – in fact I expect him to set the early pace – in his last outing he ran out of gas and finished 2^nd so stamina could be a concern. He also hasn’t raced in 90 days….which for the younger horses usually means they’ll struggle.

And finally #10 Tuscan Getaway (20-1) will also likely run with the early pack. This horse intrigues me and not just because his name makes me think of Diane Lane in Under the Tuscan Sun -- which is distracting in all the best possible ways.....

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
thinks a Zebra dinner under the
glow of the Savannah Moonlight
with Ms. Lane
is the purrfect evening.

Tuscan Getaway went wire to wire in his last outing (an Allowance Race) at this same distance – however that was 112 days ago. I think this is a lousy starting point (10^th) for this horse – however his style of racing is perfect for an upset here….and if in the past 112 days he’s built up his stamina….He could steal this one - but needs a ton of help here!

However a lot of this race could depend on how the favorite 

#2 Surfing U.S.A. approaches this race. He’s also very comfortable being a front runner – but in his last race he gave way and finished 2^nd at this same distance. I’m not a big fan of Surfing USA as the favorite here – he could easily fall into a speed duel that leaves him winded in the final furlongs with any of the longshots OR he may have trouble pulling back early and taking on the late closers at their own game.

#8  Cousin Stephen is yet another horse that could decide to challenge early. Cousin Stephen led the way in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and as they hit the final turn he just seems to run out of steam as #6 Vinceremos sneaks out a victory by surviving on the inside.

Cousin Stephen also doesn’t have the best starting post for his style of racing and I have similar concerns of a speed trap or lack of stamina like I do with Surfing USA.

#6 Vinceremos impressed me in the Sam F. Davis – because it appeared like he was going to fade out of contention as they entered the final turn….but as they exited the turn he slingshots back into the lead and has enough fight to hold everyone else off.

Link to the race:
Sam F. Davis Stakes

I like a horse that has a fighting spirit, I like that this horse is capable of running a “smart” race – and I like that he’s won his past two races….I’ll be very interested to see how jockey Edgar Prado approaches this challenge – because I don’t know how comfortable this horse will be running in the middle of the pack getting dirt kicked in his face…..and the battle for the “early jump” could force any number of horses to run far wide or get bottled up in traffic.

I may be emphasizing the battle for the “early jump” too much in this race but I have to think the second favorite #5 Conquest Titan would happily watch the bulk of his competitors wear themselves out in the first mile of the race so he can breeze by them in the last 16^th.

Conquest Titan is a very solid late charging colt and in my opinion is in a perfect spot to pull off the victory here – I’m a little concerned he didn’t finish closer to Cairo Prince in his last outing….however if he wins here – that may be a strong indication of just how good Cairo Prince is.

They say Pace makes the Race – and I believe that to be absolutely key in this one --

Closing Speed likes:

Ahem....still distracted....But as far as the horses go -

Closing Speed likes:
Conquest Titan / Vinceremos / Surfing USA   (5/6/2)

However I would bet this race differently - because I like a "long shot" to break up the favorites.and Ring Weekend is the one that concerns me.

$1 Exacta Box - 5/6/1 = $6 -- is how I might approach it.

Sam F. Davis Stakes 2013

TAMPA BAY - February 02, 2013

Race 11 - 5:23 PM

Sam F. Davis S. (Grade III)

Purse - $250,000

Distance - One And One Sixteenth Miles

1 – Northern Lion

1A – Dynamic Sky

2 – Silver Day

3 – Divine Ambition

4 – My Name Is Michael

5 – Speak Logistics

6 – Lighting Stone

7 – Balino

8- Falling Sky

9- Midnite Poppa

There are three great prep races this Saturday….but I don’t see any of them being very competitive.

Out of Aqueduct in the Withers Stakes Revolutionary has a morning line of 3/5 odds – and will likely win with ease as long as the weather cooperates.

Only four horses will enter the Robert B. Lewis Stakes out of Santa Anita where Flashback also carries 3/5 Morning line odds. I’m not as convinced about Flashback….but when you pick three horses every race, covering a four horse race seems like a timid offer.

So without an upset option in either of these races, I decided to take a peek at the Sam F. Davis Stakes in Tampa.

#1A Dynamic Sky will be the headliner and favorite in this outing – in a race that reassembles some of the same players from the Pasco Stakes from three weeks ago, where Dynamic Sky won with relative ease over (#3  Drive Ambition, who showed, #2 Silver Day who finished 6^th, and #6 Lightening Stone who finished 7^th).

While I do like Dynamic Sky in this race – he’s run twice at 1 1/16^th miles….and finished 6^th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and 2^nd in the Breeder’s Futurity – so there could be a horse better prepared for the distance in this one.

#1 Northern Lion recently enjoyed his first victory in three attempts and earned that victory at this distance. He’ll be moving up against better talent in this race, but he could be on the upswing.

#3 Drive Ambition intrigues me --- he’s only got two races under his belt – and one of them was a 6 furlong victory. I like his post position, and I like his 8/1 odds here – the problem is he certainly didn’t show much stamina in the Pasco.

#4 My Name Is Michael has one victory in four attempts and is coming off of a 63 day lay-off.  He’s currently slated at 4/1 odds – and that may be, because his last race was 1 1/16^th and he finished 2^nd. I like this horse but I think he’ll struggle to crack the top 3.

#5 Speak Logistics is coming off a disappointing 7^th place finish in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile – however before the big money race he had won two in a row. He’s currently going off as the second favorite at 3/1, however he’s coming off the longest layoff here – 93 days….which could be time well spent training and growing…..then again it could be a lot of rust to shake off for a young horse?

#7 Balino goes off as the 30/1 longshot….he’s won his last two outings…a 7 Furlong and a Mile. If he stays above 20-1 odds I think he makes an interesting Win or Place bet.

#8 Falling Sky (who is a half brother to Northern Lion – both sired by Lion Heart) has won 2 out of 3 attempts --- however his longest attempt was merely 6.5 furlongs and I think his current odds of 5/1 are too optimistic --- I see Falling Sky as being closer to 8/1 or 10/1 before I like money on him.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
is the Midnite Poppa
of the jungle cats....aw yeah!

Finally I love it when you call me #9 Midnite Pappa!

Midnite Pappa pulled out his first victory, out of three attempt in his last race. Unlike Falling Sky, I kind of like the odds on Midnite Pappa --- I think he could surprise here….then again I could see him finishing last too.

I really believe Dynamic Sky is beatable in this race so….

Closing Speed likes:  5,1,9

I sticking with the thought that Dynamic Sky will struggle here so I’m offering this Exacta as my bet.

$1 Exacta ---- 3,5,7,9 w/ 1.5 = $7