SARATOGA
RACE 12 - 6:41 PM
Belmont S. (Grade I)
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One and one 1/4 Miles
Surface – Dirt
1 – Seize the Grey
2 – Resilience
3 – Mystik Dan
4 – The Wine Steward
5 – Antiquarian
6 – Dornoch
7 – Protective
8 – Honor Marie
9 – Sierra Leone
10 – Mindframe
For the few of us that will follow the Belmont Stakes
without a Triple Crown on the line – the 2024 Belmont offers a few unique
twists.
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| Let's set out on Wednesday for a Picnic at Jerome Park for Saturday's Belmont Stakes I believe they've begun calling this area the Bronx. |
Traditionally the Belmont Stakes is 1 ½ miles --- this year it will be shortened to the same distance as the Kentucky Derby 1 ¼ miles.
The next bit of interest is that in recent years, it’s not often you have separate winners in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and both decide to continue racing in the Belmont.
Let’s begin with the Preakness Winner - #1 Seize the Grey. Seize the Grey may have caught an early break in the Preakness as the horse to his immediate right (Just Steel) angled to the right coming out of the gate and allowed Seize the Grey ample space to maneuver early.
Seize the Grey took the early lead and never relinquished it. His trip was impressive especially considering it was a muddy track and he remained unfazed. Rider Jaime Torres is back aboard and together they’ve produced back to back trips to the Winner’s Circle.
Seize the Grey is a surprising 8-1 (the fourth favorite) in this race. Seize the Grey has raced twice at Saratoga (2023) and has a Win and a Show at this track. I appreciate that this horse has an unfortunate starting spot and may not be a fan of the distance --- but he’s shown that he likes this track….I wouldn’t count him out.
#2 Resilience – The Wood Memorial winner returns to New York – however his most recent outing was his 6th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Junior Alvarado was his jockey in the KY Derby and returns for the Belmont.
10-1 odds make Resilience an interesting horse to add to Trifecta
or even an Exacta – he’ll have relatively fresh legs and could be a threat to
break the top 3 in this field.
Also the #18th spot in the Kentucky Derby may have really worked against this horse - he likes being up front early and wasn't able to position himself there in the KY Derby. Could be a much different horse if he can take the lead early.
#3 Mystik Dan – Winner of the KY Derby and Second place finisher in the Preakness is being listed as the third favorite at 5-1 odds. In his last 4 races – Mystik Dan has two wins, a place and a show.
He and Seize the Grey will be the only two horses who ran twice in May – and considering that this is likely to be the longest races they’ll ever run in their lifetime, there’s some concern for fatigue.
Other than that – this horse has shown he knows how to finish in the money – very risky to drop him from any Exacta or Trifecta bets.
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| Strangely Sensitive Cheetah prefers NOT to be associated with the painful puns and word play of this blog |
The New York Bred - The Wine Steward won his first 3 races, and placed in his next 3…..finishing immediately behind #5 Antiquarian in the Peter Pan Stakes on May 11th. His last three rides were with Luis Saez who will be riding #6 Dornoch.
I love the horse’s name – and I like his post position – but the step up in competition I believe will keep this Wine Steward in the cellar…..and not the one with the good wine!
#5 Antiquarian – Fresh from a Peter Pan Stakes victory – this horse offers 2 wins and a place in 4 lifetime races – and the return of John Velazquez on board.
In March this horse finished 6th in the Louisiana Derby (Behind #8 Honor Marie) and I don’t see anything about this horse that may indicate he’s a solid choice for the distance or against this competition.
#6 Dornoch – Finished 5th against Sierra Leone in the Bluegrass Stakes and 10th in the Kentucky Derby. Luis Saez has been his Jockey 6 out of 7 lifetime starts.
** Defeated Sierra Leone back in December – but hasn’t been able to meet the challenge since then.
#7 Protective – Finished 3rd behind Antiquarian and The Wine Steward in the Peter Pan Stakes and 3rd behind Resilience in the Wood Memorial.
This will be Tyler Gaffalione’s first trip with this horse. He’s the 20-1 longshot for these reasons – I think he should be closer to 30-1 or even 50-1….however Gaffalione has been the Jockey for the favorite #9 Sierra Leone for his last three races…..there is some intrigue here.
#8 Honor Marie – Has Florent Geroux on board for the first time – finished 8th in the Kentucky Derby after getting off to a rough start.
This horse has some late closing ability – There’s a slight chance this horse will take to this distance and finish in a 3rd spot….but I’m not a buyer at 12-1…..(maybe 30-1).
#9 Sierra Leone – is the 9/5 favorite and the reason I have to now consider the Blue Grass Stakes worth considering.
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| Birds-eye Photo Finish in the 2024 Kentucky Derby |
The “likely” reason this horse is the favorite is that – this horse closes late and his run in the Kentucky Derby gave some evidence that he’ll have the distance in him.
Also unlike the Derby he won’t have to go 10 wide in the final turn.
However – this will be Flavien Prat’s first race with this horse – Prat is one of the best (if not currently THE best) Jockey in the game….but he’s never won a Belmont Stakes.
The morning line believes this horse will benefit from having fewer horses to weave through coming out of the final turn and…..the
morning line also believes that skipping the Preakness will give this horse the
fresher legs for this race….and I see where the morning line is coming from –
but 9/5 on a horse for “potential” and a new Jockey…… with all things
considered I don’t love these odds.
Ortiz has also been a top rider here at Saratoga for the last two years.
Mindframe has shown some remarkable potential…..but this will be his first opportunity to meet Grade 1 stakes winners.
I appreciate he’s got one of the best Jockeys in the nation on board – and I appreciate that this horse has won his last two races by 13 and 7 lengths….and he has fresher legs having not raced since May 4th.
But 7/2 odds…..better than a Kentucky Derby Winner AND Preakness Winner (who beat the Kentucky Derby Winner)?
If you've never seen a horse "glide" before - watch Mindframe in his first race.
Here's how I see the race - IF Seize the Grey is able to break free from the 1 spot and own the rail for the entire race I think he could very well win this race......but he'll need the best release out of the gate he's ever had.
IF Resilience grabs the early lead and the rail - I think he finishes top 3 - but the question is, which one of these two horses will get the early jump?
Mystik Dan is also in an excellent spot to own the inside for the shorter trip -- and no matter how it shakes out for the first three - I expect Mindframe to stalk the leaders mid-pack, and for Sierra Leone to keep an eye on Mindframe.
I think Mystik Dan will come out of the final turn with the lead and eventually lose ground to Sierra Leone and then we'll see if Mindframe is as dominate as people believe or if Seize the Grey and Resilience can take one of the top spots.
Closing Speed likes: Sierra Leone / Mystik Dan / Resilience.
For the record I'm rooting for Seize the Grey - I'm a big fan of what MyRaceHorse is trying to accomplish.....and also I just like the horse - I think he and Mystik Dan are very close in talent and if they switched post positions I'd likely switch their spots.
From a betting perspective - rarely do I like Superfectas....but:
Superfecta Box: 1/2/3/9/10 -- (30 cents will cost a total of $36).
Trifecta Box: 1/2/3/9/10 - (50 cents will cost a total of $30)
Seize the Grey 6/1 odds or higher - I'd put $5 / $10 to win
Resilience 10/1 odds or higher - $5 Win or Place
Mystik Dan 6/1 odds or higher - $5 / $10 to win
Mindframe 10/1 odds or higher - $5 / $10 to win
