Preakness Stakes 2026

 

Laurel Park
RACE 13 – 7:01 PM
Preakness S. (Grade I)
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One And 3/16ths  Mile
Surface – Dirt

1 – Taj Mahal
2 – Ocelli                               
3 – Crupper
4 – Robusta
5 – Talkin
6 – Chip Honcho                             
7 – The Hell We Did
8 – Bull by the Horns
9 - Iron Honor
10 - Napoleon Solo
11 - Corona de Oro
12 - Incredibolt
13 - Great White
14 - Pretty Boy Miah

The horse racing "game" is a humbling one. For several years in a row I predicted the Kentucky Derby winners -- and had it not been for Two odd Disqualifications....I was really feeling great about my skills.

Well after the last two Kentucky Derbys (especially the last one) those days are over and I write before you as a man unsure of my footing.

To make matters more fun many of the Kentucky Derby Horses have bowed out of this race AND it's not at Pimilico - but instead at Laurel Park.

Which is likely a big reason why #1 Taj Mahal (along with two other horses) is the 2nd Favorite in this race. Taj Mahal has Three lifetime victories in three races and all of them were here at Laurel Park and all three were with Sheldon Russell aboard. He's got a solid post position - his favorite track and jockey -- the only problem is....he may be facing a better class of horses for the first time. He is the only horse with experience at this racetrack.

 #2 Ocelli finished a charging 3rd in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago with Tyler Gaffalione aboard. The distance here will be slightly less than the KY Derby - and while Ocelli has certainly raced against the best 3 year olds in the Nation (maybe the world) -- he's also never won a race before. Still a Maiden. He's going off at 6-1 -- which I understand, but can't completely agree with. His odds will likely drop to 5-1 or lower when they open the gates.

#3 Crupper recently won the Bathhouse Row Stakes at Oaklawn Park with Junior Alvarado aboard. He has two victories and two "shows" in 6 races....however those wins and shows were all in the past four races. He's another horse who hasn't run against the highest talent -- but at 30-1 and with recent success could be a long shot to keep an eye on.

 #4 Robusta finished 14th in the Kentucky Derby, 7th in the Santa Anita Derby - and last visited the Winners Circle in January 2026 -- He's an experienced horse with 6 lifetime races - but he's only hit the board twice and he's trying a new rider in Rafael Bejarano. 

#5 Talkin finished 3rd in the Bluegrass Stakes, 5th at the Tampa Bay Derby and is also trying a different rider for the first time with Irad Ortiz, Jr. -- he's shown improvement in his last few races, but his 20-1 odds feels right.

#6 Chip Honcho - The next contestant going off at 5-1 odds. The Chipper has two victories and two places in six lifetime races. Jose Ortiz Jr last rode him on Nov. 2025 - and since then he's had two Jockeys on board. His last race was the Louisiana Derby where he finished 5th. I honestly don't know why the morning odds have him as a second favorite??

I understand that Ponch from Chips
does NOT make Chips Honcho
but somehow....it also does.

#7 The Hell We Did - In four races this horse has either won (2) or placed (2) and is coming in at 15-1 odds. His first three races were 6 furlongs...and his last was 1 mile 1/16th - so this will be a jump in distance for this horse. Hard not to just like this horses name.

Can I get a little cross promotion going here??
C'mon Netflix you've got the cash!

#8 Bull by the Horns - Speaking of great names, In five lifetime races this horse has two wins and two shows. Hasn't competed against a higher level of talent - and he's never run further than 1 1/16th either....so the level up and further distance makes the 30-1 odds make a little more sense.

I mean...now I'm going to have Dodgeball
in my head all day.

#9 Iron Honor - Zero idea what makes this horse the morning line favorite at 9/2 odds. Out of three lifetime races he won the first two at 6 furlongs and 1 mile and then proceeded to finish 7th in the Wood Memorial well behind Ocelli. And yet Ocelli who performed well in the KY Derby against the best talent is at more enticing odds than Iron Honor? He has Flavien Prat aboard who is one of the best Jockeys in the nation - however this will be their FIRST Race together.

#10 Napoleon Solo - is going off at 8-1 odds and finished AHEAD of Iron Honor in the last race (Wood  Memorial) - finishing 5th. My hunch would be that Iron Honor was closing strongly while Napoleon Solo faded in that race......but they both faded in that race. Two victories in Four Lifetime races.

#11 Corona de Oro - In 5 lifetime races he has a win, a place and two shows....so I like that he stays on the board quite a bit. Finished 3rd, immediately behind The Hell We Did in their last race - Lexington Stakes. And he has one of the best Jockeys aboard for the first time with John Velazquez....and he's going off at 30-1.

#12 Incredibolt - Finished 6th in the KY Derby, after an impressive victory in the Virginia Derby. I really like this horse, especially against a weaker field. This horse has a lot of experience Six Lifetime races all with Jaime Torres aboard - and three trips to the Winners Circle. 

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
wonders how one gets the 
nickname Pretty Boy??
Can he start calling himself
Pretty Boy Cheetah?
Or does it have to be someone
else first??

#13 Great White - Was a DRAMATIC scratch from the Kentucky Derby as this horse reared up as they approached the gate and fell backwards, dumping jockey Alex Achard before being removed from the track. Kudos to Achard who returns to ride Great White and we'll see if he can actually make it to the gate this time. Great White has Two lifetime wins in Four attempts - and Alex Achard has been aboard for all of the runs. Finished 5th in his last outing the Blue Grass Stakes behind Talkin (3rd).

#14 Pretty Boy Miah - In four lifetime races this horse has two wins and 1 place - his last two races were both wins with Ricardo Santana aboard. However this horse has never raced longer than 1 Mile.

As I see the race:

#1 Taj Mahal - has the experience on the track, and a fairly solid post position - although being on the rail isn't always great.

#2 Ocelli - Seems to be the best horse of the bunch - finished well in the Kentucky Derby, obviously can handle the distance -- however has never WON a race and may not have fresh legs after only a two week layoff. 

#9 Iron Honor - I'm a big believer in listening to odds makers....I just don't see what they love about this horse.....granted I didn't see Golden Tempo winning the KY Derby or even contending....so???

#12 Incredibolt - I liked this horse going into the KY Derby - I just didn't love him against that talent...well THAT talent is mostly gone and I like the poise and ability that this horse brings to this race - however like Ocelli is coming off only a two week breather.

I like both #10 Napoleon Solo and #7 The Hell We Did as longshots to do well here - maybe not win but to be apart of your Trifecta / Exacta Bets.

Closing Speed likes: #12 Incredibolt, #1 Taj Mahal, #2 Ocelli

If I'm betting $24 - Tri-fecta box: 1/2/7/12
If I'm betting $12 - Exacta Box: 2/7/10/12

Kentucky Derby 2026

  

Churchill Downs  – May 2nd, 2026
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $5,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface – Dirt

#1 Renegade
#2 Albus
#3 Intrepido
#4 Litmus Test
#5 Right To Party
#6 Commandment
#7 Danon Bourbon
#8 So Happy
#9 The Puma
#10 Wonder Dean (JPN)
#11 Incredibolt
#12 Chief Wallabee
#13 Silent Tactic
#14 Potente
#15 Emerging Market
#16 Pavlovian
# 17 Six Speed
#18 Further Ado
#19 Golden Tempo
#20  Fulleffort
Sub: Great White
Sub: Ocelli

“The jig is up, the news is out, They finally found me, The renegade who had it made, Retrieved for a bounty” – Styx – Renegade.

The last time a horse won the Kentucky Derby from the #1 post was 40 years ago (1986) with Ferdinand. Which is one reason I found it “interesting” that #1 Renegade was the morning line favorite at 4-1 odds.

#1 Renegade – Has won 3 out of 4 lifetime races including a dominant victory at the Arkansas Derby. His Trainer Todd Pletcher has two KY Derby victories and Irad Ortiz is one of the best riders in the US. However he’ll VERY LIKELY be buried or pinned in the first quarter of this race and then have to maneuver past a wall of horses to reach the finish line first – he’s my favorite this year with the absolute worst spot in the race.

#2 Albus – Winner of his last two races including the Wood Memorial. While I like this horse quite a bit his rider chose to stick with #11 Incredibolt – so he’ll have a new jockey and not a great starting spot.

#3 Intrepido – Hasn’t won a race since October 2025 – he’s a very solid horse and Hector Berrios has been aboard for the last 5 rides – he finished 4^th in the Santa Anita Derby and his 50-1 odds are about right.

#4 Litmus Test – Hasn’t won since December 2025, and will have Garcia aboard for the first time. He’s a Bob Baffert trained horse – and Baffert has 6 total KY Derbies to his name – but 50-1 also seems right for this horse as well.

#5 Right to Party – Finished 2^nd in the Wood Memorial behind Albus – but hasn’t seen the Winners Circle since January 2026. Trainer Kenneth McPeek won the KY Derby in 2024 and Jockey Elliott has been on board for three previous races – so his Posse is in Effect, and as much as I’d like to Fight for the Right to Party, unless they have Paul Revere on board or a New Style – I see this as a Slow Ride – in fact Slow and Low chance of hitting the money here – his Kentucky Racing License is really just a License to Ill.

Also from 1986....and YES I included as many song titles
as I could think of on this album for Right to Party! 

 #6 Commandment – The (2^nd) morning line favorite has everything working for him. He’s won his last four races including the Florida Derby – he even has 1 lifetime victory here at Churchhill Downs. His Post Position #6 – places him in a great spot for this race. I think Commandment will be the favorite when they approach the gate and for good reason. HOWEVER he had Flavien Prat aboard for his Florida Derby win and Irad Ortiz for the two races before that. This will be Saez’s first time with this horse – is that enough to cause some doubt?? If he wins the Kentucky Derby that will be 5 wins with 4 Different Riders.

#7 Danon Bourbon – Is a Kentucky Bred horse who has three dominant wins in three races….that have all been in Japan. Japan is making great strides in Horse Racing – and this horse will have the same rider (Nishimura) as he’s had his whole career – however in my experience changing Countries, Tracks and even running in a different direction (they run clock-wise in Japan) can be a difficult ask for a horse their first time out. 20-1 is an interesting price – and “someday” a foreign horse is going to win this race….I just don’t think it’s this one.

#8 So Happy – Santa Anita Derby winner who has 3 lifetime victories in 4 races – has Big Money Mike Smith on board for the fifth straight time. Mike Smith has two KY Derby wins and he has this horse in a great spot and with current odds at 15-1….has my attention. Especially because this horse can run at the top of pack early and still close.

#9 The Puma – One victory (Tampa Bay Derby) in Four Races – but has been competitive. In the other three races he finished 2^nd behind Commandment, 3^rd behind Renegade, 2^nd behind Chief Wallabee. His Jockey and Trainer put together a Kentucky Derby Victory in 2023 with Mage from the 8^th spot. With a little luck it’s possible he makes the top 3. 

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
has only a long, appreciative,
and supportive stare to offer
The Puma 

#10 Wonder Dean (JPN) – recently defeated #17 Six Speed – in the UAE Derby. Similar issue to Danon Bourbon – horses with UAE Derby victories just haven’t “won”. Solid post position – good horse – could surprise….and at 30-1 has my attention….but history says save your money.

#11 Incredibolt – At 20-1 this horse is a very interesting prospect to me. He has had Torres aboard his entire career – and has 3 victories in 5 races. His last race was a beautiful ride in the Virginia Derby in mid-March – he navigated traffic like a seasoned pro and closed well. His other two victories were here at Churchhill Downs. He’s got a great post position – and has shown to have the kind of kick and poise to do well here in the Kentucky Derby.

Here’s the bad news – His Jockey Torres has never raced in the Kentucky Derby – and his Trainer Riley Mott has never won one – although his Father Trainer Bill Mott has won two Kentucky Derbies. Also the Virginia Derby (on Dirt) is only in it’s second year – and it’s difficult to judge how that race translates to this one. American Promise won the Virginia Derby in 2025 and finished 16^th here at the Kentucky Derby.

#12 Chief Wallabee – Has 1 victory in 3 races – defeated twice by #6 Commandment in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Trainer Bill Mott and Jockey Junior Alvarado teamed up to visit the Winner’s Circle on Sovereignty last year here at the Kentucky Derby – so this horse has a great team and a good post position – will need some luck to win outright….but should be considered for Exotics.

#13 Silent Tactic – Scratched

#14 Potente – Has two victories in three lifetime races – and he was the Favorite going into the Santa Anita Derby only to finish behind #8 So Happy. JJ Hernandez has been aboard his last two races and Bob Baffert obviously knows how to win in Kentucky. He’s got a solid post position – and with only three races under his belt – he could be poised to show a little more here in his fourth lifetime race. He’s a dangerous 20-1.

#15 Emerging Market – This horse only has two races under it’s belt….(for a horse should that be “harness”…”Saddle”??) Anyway this horse has 2 Wins in 2 races and punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with a win in the Louisiana Derby over #16 Pavlovian and #19 Golden Tempo. He’s got a fantastic team of Trainer Chad Brown and Jockey Flavien Pratt – according to the interwebs Pratt is on Emerging Market because he had a deal in place with Chad Brown….and not necessarily because he chose this horse over #6 Commandment.

I will say this, the Louisiana Derby winner has let me down many times.  15-1 odds is a tempting pot of Gumbo and he’s got a solid post position and one of the best riders in the country. But I forsee me getting let down again here.

What Emerging Market's Odds looks like to my belly!

#16 Pavlovian – This is a well seasoned horse – 10 Lifetime races – having been in the money 7 out of 10. Won the Sunland Derby in Feb. 2026 / finished behind Emerging Market in Louisiana in March. His rider Maldonado has been aboard for the last two rides. He usually does well at the top of the pack early – so this may not be a good spot for him.

#17 Six Speed – Has 3 victories in 5 Races – however all of his races are overseas. Finished behind Wonder Dean in the UAE Derby. Counting him out for the same reasons as the other two horses from overseas.

#18 Further Ado – Jockey Velazquez has three recent Kentucky Derby Victories (2020, 2017, and 2011). Along with Brad Cox who has a 2021 Kentucky Derby win – this horse has 3 victories in 6 lifetime races – but has won 3 out of the last 4 – including the Blue Grass Stakes.

Morning Line has him at 6-1 – which would make him the 2^nd favorite in his race along with Commandment. Similar to Commandment – this will be Velazquez first race with Further Ado.

But I’ve never been a fan of the Blue Grass Stakes as a Prep Race – the last horse to win both the Blue Grass Stakes AND the Kentucky Derby was Strike the Gold in 1991.

And (for good or bad) that’s the main reason I don’t like Further Ado to win here.

#19 Golden Tempo – Had two early victories at lesser distance in his four race career – but has recently finished 3^rd in his last two races – including the Louisiana Derby behind Emerging Market and Pavlovian – difficult to see where he’s picked up an edge with longer distance and being further outside.

#20 Fulleffort – Scratched

#21 Great White – Has two victories in four races – his last outing he finished 5^th in the Blue Grass Stakes. He has had Jockey Achard for all four races.

#22 Ocelli – Has never won a race in 6 outings…..a victory in the Kentucky Derby would “break” his Maiden. Just a bit of history only 3 horses have broken their maiden in the Kentucky Derby.

1884 – Buchanan (you read that right 1884….BEFORE the Dakota’s were US States).
1933 – Broker’s Tip (When you couldn’t legally celebrate with a Cocktail – because it was the last year of Prohibition. 

And finally 1919 – Sir Barton – the first Triple Crown Winner….hey maybe there is hope??

Here’s how I see the race unfolding:

#1 Renegade – Will run the risk of getting pinned or bottled up early OR give the field a half second start and begin to work the traffic from the back at the beginning of the race --- it’s an impossible choice. My guess is he’ll make a valiant run at the end – but unless he’s blessed with luck I don’t see him finishing better than 4^th. 

I think #4 Litmus Test will attempt to take command of the rail – and may even appear to be in contention for most of the race – but look for him to fade as they come into the final turn.

#6 Commandment – He’ll have the best position early on and certainly has enough kick to win. I think it’s his race to lose – the question is: How well Saez and he will work together.

#8 So Happy – could be the wildcard in this race. He “could” push the early tempo in an attempt to control the lead – which could dictate Commandment’s choices. I trust Mike Smith and his experience with this horse could be a deciding factor – So Happy could be in an early stalking spot close enough to the inside to not be gassed at the end – DANGEROUS 15-1 here.

#9 The Puma, #11 Incredibolt, #12 Chief Wallabee, #14 Potente, #15 Emerging Market and #18 Further Ado – will all be looking for the best spots early to position themselves for a late surge. It will be a toss up to see which horse has the best break from the gate, if any of them get bumped early and who puts themselves in the best position to make a late push.

Closing Speed likes: #6 Commandment / #8 So Happy / #12 Chief Wallabee

If I’m betting $20 to $24 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box: 6, 8, 9, 12 = $24

$1 Exacta Box : 6/8/9/12/14  w 6/8/9/12/14 = $20

Longshots:

$4 Win/Place – #8 = $8
$4 Win/ Place - #7 - $8
$4 Win/Place - $14 = $8