Belmont Stakes 2025

Saratoga
RACE 13 - 7:02 PM
Belmont S. (Grade I)
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One And one 1/4 Miles
Surface – Dirt

1 – Hill Road
2 – Sovereignty                         
3 – Rodriguez
4 – Uncaged                                     
5 – Crudo           
6 – Baeza                           
7 – Journalism
8 – Heart of Honor

Look Mr. Twist - I"m Knocking IT!
Who are we kidding - "Let's Twist again,
Like we did last summer!!"

 

The 2025 Belmont Stakes has a few different twists to it this year -- and I don't care what Chubby Checker says....I'm NOT a fan of some of these Twists!

It’s being held at Saratoga (instead of historic Belmont Park, which is under reconstruction) and it’s once again being run at 1 ¼ miles instead of the traditional 1 ½ miles – so it will be the same distance this year as the Kentucky Derby.

 

Speaking of which - #2 Sovereignty  - won the Kentucky Derby and then skipped the Preakness – his Trainer William Mott is known for making sure to give his horses plenty of time to recuperate – and in this case, even when a Triple Crown and Immortality could be on the line.

Jockey Junior Alvarado will be on board again – and these two have 3 victories in 5 races.

The horse that Sovereignty narrowly beat in Kentucky is the Preakness winner  #7 Journalism. Jockey Umberto Rispoli will be aboard and the two of them have a record of 4 Wins in 6 Races.

Despite the fact that Sovereignty has a recent victory over Journalism – has an inside post, and has had more rest than Journalism --- it’s Journalism who is the morning line favorite at 8/5 odds against Sovereignty’s 2-1 odds….we’ll see who is the favorite come Saturday.

Here’s a look at the rest of the field:

#1 Hill Road – who has 2 wins in 5 attempts – will have Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. on board for the first time. Jockey Flavien Prat was on board for Hill Road’s recent victory in the Peter Pan Stakes – I would be very surprised to see Hill Road break the top 3 against these horses.

#3 Rodriguez – Has 2 wins in 5 races – however he’s hit the board in all 5 races which is likely why the odds makers have him at 6-1. Jockey Mike Smith will be returning to the saddle after these two put a victory in the Wood Memorial, which was Rodriguez last race before suffering a Hoof Bruise.

Rewind the clock back to March and you’d see Rodriguez finished 3^rd against Journalism – but beat #6 Baeza – back in January. I don’t think this horse is ready to pull off an upset victory – but with a little luck Rodriguez could be in contention to finish 2^nd or 3^rd.

#4 Uncaged – has two victories in 4 lifetime races. This will be his first race with Luis Saez and in his most recent race he finished 6^th in the Peter Pan stakes losing to #1 Hill Road. His morning odds have him at 30-1…..I don’t think this horse has much of a shot here.

#5 Crudo – Has picked up 2 wins in 3 Races – and has saddled up with John Velazquez in all three of his races. I think both this horse and Rodriquez will look to set the pace.

** If it ends up being a muddy run at Saratoga – the two early pace setters could definitely make this race closer than if it were a firm and fast track.

#6 Baeza – Going off as the 3^rd favorite (4-1) -  he only has 1 win in 5 attempts – but he’ll have Flavien Prat on board and his most recent finishes were a 2^nd place finish against Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby and a 3^rd place finish behind both Journalism and Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby.

Solid horse – he’s definitely a horse that could finish 2^nd or 3^rd….. I just don’t think he can make it to 1^st against the two favorites.

#8 Heart of Honor – In his last race he finished 5th in the Preakness. This horse had some success in the Middle East picking up 3 places in Stakes races before trying his luck in the US. He currently sits at 30-1, I would need at least 50-1 odds to consider him coming in for a “Show” (3^rd place).

Rodriguez and Crudo sounds like
a cooking show that
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
would totally watch!

 

How I see the race:

#3 Rodriguez and #5 Crudo will look to take the opening lead – a reasonable pace would be 23+ in the first quarter…..if the clock has them going 22 seconds….they could be setting themselves up for a fade in the final turn.

 

#2 Sovereignty, #6 Baeza and #7 Journalism will run middle of the pack – the question here will be if Sovereignty decides to sit further back to prevent getting boxed in by either of these two of if he takes the rail and expects a hole to open up in the final turn – bit of a chess match we’ll have to watch unfold.

If Sovereignty sits back – the question then is – will Baeza and Journalism set themselves up closer to the front so they have more room to make their move --- or sit back and see which of these three horses makes the first move going into the final turn??

Unfortunately I don’t have an original answer in this one – I like Journalism to narrowly defeat Sovereignty in this one with Baeza finishing 3^rd – just a slight change from the Kentucky Derby finish.

Closing Speed likes:  Journalism, Sovereignty, Baeza

I don’t love this race with these odds to bet – I think you have to drop one of the top three favorites and add Rodriquez and/or Crudo to pull off a wire to wire type upset to make any money here.

$1 Box Exacta – 2,3,5,7 = $12

$1 Box Trifecta – 2,3,5,7 = $24

However I WOULD consider a Pick 5 or Pick 4 in these races.

Race 9: #2 – Think Big  (If My Boy Prince wins I'll be very disappointed in myself!)

Race 10: #1 – Zulu Kingdom  (#4 Flying Mohawk as a Back-up)

Race 11: #3 Macho Music / #4 Patch Adams / #5 Citizen Bull / #7 Colloquial  (#2 Madaket Road as a back-up)

Race 12: #6 Spirit of St. Louis / #9 Far Bridge  (#2 Integration as a back-up)

Race 13: #2 Sovereignty / #7 Journalism

A 50 cent Pick 5 or Pick 4 will cost you $8
A $1 Pick 5 or Pick 4 will cost you $16

Preakness Stakes 2025

 

Pimlico Race Track
RACE 13 – 7:01 PM
Preakness S. (Grade I)
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One And 3/16ths  Mile
Surface – Dirt

1 – Goal Oriented
2 – Journalism                               
3 –American Promise
4 – Heart of Honor
5 – Pay Billy
6 – River Thames                             
7 – Sandman
8 – Clever Again
9 - Gosger

Without the Kentucky Derby Winner Sovereignty in this race – I think most of America would consider this The “Pointless” Stakes….and I wouldn’t blame them at all!

I’ve written and erased about five paragraphs attempting
to say the following – Horse Racing simply needs to do a better job of engaging the American Public and possible fans – I believe the casual fan only has two questions at this time – Will there be a successful Triple Crown this year OR when will the Kentucky Derby Champion run again?

Your disappointing answers:

1^st There will be no Triple Crown attempt this year
2^nd We don’t know when Sovereignty will run again.

With that…..let’s take a look at the field.

#1 Goal Oriented  - The 6-1 horse has Flavien Prat aboard and has two victories in two lifetime outings. This will be his first attempt against serious talent – and he’s never raced further than 1 mile 1/16^th – if this horse has the room he may attempt to set the pace and go wire to wire.

#2 Journalism – the runner-up in the Kentucky Derby (who was the favorite to win in that race) is the heavy favorite at 8/5 odds. This horse had 4 straight wins coming into the Kentucky Derby and is certainly the horse with the best resume in the field –unless this horse is absolutely gassed from running two weeks ago – this is his race to lose.

#3 American Promise – Finished a VERY disappointing 16^th in the Kentucky Derby – however this horse has 10 lifetime races and I think his 15-1 odds are interesting. Nik Juarez will be aboard again having been his rider in his last two races.

#4 Heart of Honor – travels from the UAE to take a shot at an American Graded Stakes race. This horse has 2 wins and 4 places in his lifetime 6 races and he’s seen some serious talent. I’m not a fan of overseas horses in their first race in the US – however the talent and size of the field is certainly lesser here than in the Kentucky Derby. Going off at 12-1 is very intriguing.

#5 Pay Billy – Going off at 20-1 this horse has 4 wins in 8 lifetime races – however this will be a jump in class for him --- but with rider Raul Mena this horse has 1 place and 4 wins in 5 attempts. I like that ownership is rolling the dice in this one!

After writing about Sandman
I'll have the Spiderman theme
in my head all day!

#6 River Thames – 9/2 odds for a horse that finished 3^rd in the Bluegrass Stakes. 2 Wins, 1 Place and 1 Show in 4 lifetime races. I have no idea what they think this horse is near three times better with odds than Heart of Honor who has actually beaten really good horses?

#7 Sandman – finished a very disappointing 7^th in the Kentucky Derby – I’ll be the first one to tell you I have sour grapes about this horse because I went between he and Sovereignty to finish out my Kentucky Derby bets….and I went with Sandman --- a case of don’t hate the player hate the game. This horse won the Arkansas Derby and couldn’t make the late run in the mud at Churchhill Downs.

I would also favor this horse over River of Thames.

#8 Clever Again – In three lifetime races this horse has 2 Wins and 1 Place – and both wins were with Jose Ortiz aboard. He’s going off at 5-1 – I think the odds are too low for a horse that hasn’t really beaten anyone in three races – what’s interesting to me is compare him to the horse on his right:

#9 Gosger – a 20-1 horse with 2 Wins and 1 Place who recently won the Lexington Stakes (G3) – granted he DID win that race with Jose Ortiz aboard and will have Luis Saez on board for the first time – I appreciate that a different rider can make a difference – but I’m not sure Clever Again should be considered “That” much of a favorite over this horse.

I believe #1 Goal Oriented and #8 Clever Again will set the early pace – from what I’ve seen out of Goal Oriented he will do very well taking the rail and he’s also a very patient horse.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah 
appreciates being both
Goal Oriented and Clever Again 

I believe #2 Journalism, #4 Heart of Honor, #6 River Thames and #7 Sandman will huddle in the middle of the pack until we get close or into the 2^nd turn.

Coming out of the 2^nd turn I believe Clever Again may begin to fade against the rest of the pack – as the middle pack picks up steam.

Goal Oriented will come out of the 2^nd turn and have gained some ground – and I believe Journalism will overtake Goal Oriented by a head – Sandman, Heart of Honor and River Thames will fight it out for the show.

Closing Speed likes:  Journalism, Goal Oriented, Sandman

$1 Box Trifecta – 1,2,4,7 = $24
$1 Box Exacta – 1,2,4,7 = $24

From a bettors standpoint – I think this is an excellent opportunity to place bets on Pick 3 bets – meaning you’re betting on Races 11 / 12 / 13 or 12/13/14.

Race 11; Horses 3/6/7/8
Race 12: Horses 6/8/10/13
Race 13: Journalism #2
Race 14: Horses 2/6/8/9

A Pick 3 will cost you $16

Kentucky Derby 2025

Churchill Downs  – May 3rd, 2025
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $5,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface - Dirt

 

1 – Citizen Bull 2 – Neoequos 3 – Final Gambit 4 – Rodriguez 5 – American Promise 6 – Admire Daytona 7 – Luxor Café 8 –  Journalism 9 –  Burham Square 10 –  Grande 11 – Flying Mohawk 12 – East Avenue 13 – Publisher 14 – Tiztastic 15 – Render Judgment 16 – Coal Battle 17 – Sandman 18 – Sovereignty 19 – Chunk of Gold 20 –  Owen Almighty 21 – Baeza

The very first thing I would say about a Kentucky Derby field like this one is:

"Don’t over think it!"

That being written…..now watch me completely overthink this. 

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
wonders why no one ever says
 "Don't UNDER think things"?

#1 Citzen Bull – Your Juvenile Breeders Cup Champion and winner of 4 straight with Martin Garcia aboard, before they finished 4^th in the Santa Anita Derby draws a terrible post – and in my experience will need a TON of luck to make anything work out of the 1 hole – finishing top 4 should be considered an admirable run. Keep an eye out for him in the Preakness. 

#2 Neoequos – could look to take the early lead if he can escape – will likely get swallowed up early and hasn’t shown a late kick to threaten here – also Flavian Prat switched from this horse to #21 Baeza – that’s a cue from one of the best Jockeys in this field. 

#3 Final Gambit – At 30-1 this horse has my interest. He finished 1^st in his last outing the Jeff Ruby Stakes – and his running style is to close late which will help with this post position – he also closed strongly in his victory and he and Jockey Luan Machado have 2 Wins and a Place in his last three outings.

I once defeated Peanut Butter Whiskey
True Story!

Recent Jeff Ruby Stakes winners to win a KY Derby are Mage (2022), Rich Strike (2021)

But this is a steep climb in competition…..in January this horse was beaten by a horse named Peanutbutter Whiskey…..then again I’ve also taken a few losses to Peanutbutter Whiskey.

 #5 American Promise – for reasons I am unfamiliar with the Virginia Derby has moved from July and September to March….so this will be one the first time a Virginia Derby winner will enter the Kentucky Derby. At 30-1 this horse also has my interest – he’s been beaten in previous races by a number of horses in this race – but looks like he can handle the distance well and could be the horse to set the pace. (Sired by 2018 Triple Crown Winner Justify)

#6 Admire Daytona (JPN) – UAE Derby winner- twice beaten by #7  Luxor Café.  UAE Derby and Japanese horses have never done very well in the KY Derby – could it finally happen, sure….but I’d save your cash.

#7 Luxor Café (JPN) – Great post position, 4 straight wins in 3 Stakes Races. I don’t know what it is exactly, but these young horses from Japan and the UAE don’t tend to do well in the Kentucky Derby. This horse could absolutely finish top 5 – but I just haven’t seen a trend breaker here yet. (Sired by 2015 Triple Crown Winner American Pharoah).

#8 Journalism – The favorite at 3-1 morning odds and for good reason – winner of 4 straight / 3 of those wins with rider Umberto Rispoli including the most recent: Santa Anita Derby. He has a great post position and should be able to position himself into a perfect spot to win this race. The two concerns are he hasn’t been in very large fields before (several of these horses have) and he’s only raced in California. But a victory in the Santa Anita Derby makes him a contender.

#9 Burnham Square – Even though this horse has intriguing odds (12-1) is on the outside shoulder of the favorite – I DO NOT TRUST the Bluegrass Stakes – it will fool you like decaf coffee on a hungover morning….it may LOOK right, it may feel right….but it will not BE right! This is a good horse that has won 3 out of 6 lifetime races – Rider Brian Hernandez Jr. won the KY Derby last year – I just don’t trust the Bluegrass.

Not East Avenue
But still funny.

#11 Flying Mohawk – finished behind #3 Final Gambit in their last race. He’s going off at 30-1 this is the kind of horse with this post position who could sneak into the top 5. I just don’t think he could finish better than 3^rd in this race.

#12 East Avenue – Finished 2^nd in the Blue Grass Stakes behind #9 Burnham Square – it would not surprise me to see East Avenue be cut loose in the first half mile and lead the pack. But I would expect him to fade coming out of the final turn. If the track is muddy – keep an eye on this one – at 20-1 he could shoot to take the lead and slop his way home to the winners circle if the mud exhausts the field.

#13 Publisher – this will be his first race with rider Irad Ortiz, as Flavien Prat also decided not to board this horse either. This horse finished a strong 2^nd in the Arkansas Derby, but hasn’t been consistent and again – listen to Flavien Prat. Publisher also seems most comfortable sitting WAY in the back for most of the race and with 18 other horses in this one – I think it will be too much of a challenge for this horse.

#14 Tiztastic – 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Joel Rosario will be aboard the Louisiana Derby winner. The Louisiana Derby switched over from 1 mile and 1/8^th to 1 mile and 3/16 a few years ago which may help prepare horses for the distance of 1 mile and 1/4 . This horse looked strong coming down to the wire.

At 20-1 this horse has my interest – he’s got a great spot, looks good for the distance and the Jockey knows how to win here.

#15 Render Judgement – (sired by Blame) has finished 5^th / 2^nd / 8^th and 3^rd in his last four races. And has a new rider aboard in Julien Leparoux – I don’t see anything here -- granted I'm also still upset that Blame (the sire) beat Zenyatta 15 years ago in the Breeders Cup.

LOVED Zenyatta....but a Bobblehead Zenyatta??

#16 Coal Battle – with trainer Lonnie Briley and Jockey Juan Vargas this horse has 5 Wins / a Place and a Fourth Finish out of 7 races. Finished 3^rd behind Sandman and Publisher in the Arkansas Derby – I can see this horse finishing 3^rd at best – consider for exotic bets.

#17 Sandman – Jose Ortiz will be back aboard – and rode Sandman to victory in the Arkansas Derby. In the last 5 races Sandman has 2 Wins / A place and 2 Shows – and was beaten by Coal Battle in February. Not a lot of winning consistency here for a 6-1 horse. 

His ride In the Arkansas Derby was very solid – he’ll sit in the middle of the pack and can go wide and still pull off a win – I understand the 6-1 odds from that race….I just don’t love those odds here.

#18 Sovereignty  - Finished 2^nd in the Florida Derby to Tappan Street (due to injury couldn’t run here). Sovereignty will likely sit in the back of the pack and make a late run – He’s got a good post position and he’ll be able to melt into the pack whenever they like – but I don’t love a 5-1 horse who has to get through a wall of horses to win.

Between Sandman and Sovereignty – I like Sandman’s position and racing style more.

 #19 Chunk of Gold – 30-1 and finished a notable 2^nd behind Tiztastic in the Louisiana Derby – I like this horse quite a bit and his Jockey Jareth Loveberry has a name that sounds like he should be from a Jane Austen novel – but I think this horse will be lucky to finish top 6. Maybe consider in Exotics.

A bit of irony here – Chunk of Gold was purchased for $2,500 October 2023
Baeza and Sandman were purchased for $1,200,000 each.

I say...Jareth Loveberry at your service m'lady!

#20 Owen Almighty – finished a disappointing 6^th in the Blue Grass Stakes – but has 3 Wins and 2 Places in 7 lifetime races. His usual Jockey Ortiz will be riding #17 Sandman

#21 Baeza – ridden by 2019 Kentucky Derby winner Flavien Prat finished 2^nd behind Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. With Prat aboard I like the 12-1 odds on this horse – however Prat has never ridden this horse in a race!

 As I see the race – the gates will fly open and #1 Citizen Bull and #2 Neoequos will get swallowed up quickly by the pack – Citizen Bull may show up late, but I doubt it.

#3 Final Gambit will hit the brakes and wait until the last turn to make a move – if he finds the right hole, could be an upset!

If #5 American Promise gets a clean break and can take the rail early – he’s got a shot to dictate his own race. I don’t trust this horse to hold the lead and not burn out – my guess is he fades late OR he gets boxed in going into the first turn – same could be said for #20 East Avenue.

#8 Journalism will position himself mid-pack and when they hit the final turn will look to make his move. If they give this horse open track in front of him – he’ll likely be in the Winner’s Circle.

#9 Burnham Square **Should stalk Journalism and dictate how the middle of the pack will run – but my guess is this horse will come out flustered and/or flat like many Bluegrass Stakes winners before him.

#14 Tiztastic needs some luck – he’ll need to find a spot middle of the pack inside – hope that he doesn’t go too far wide in the first turn or try to dictate the lead. If this horse is patient and finds a hole late he could finish top 3.

#17 Sandman & #18 Sovereignty  - will battle for position – I’m afraid Sandman will want the top of the pack early and will go wide – I think he fades late. I like Sovereignty to be more patient and finish strong in the end.

#21 Baeza – Prat is one of the best in the business (if not THE best) – but first time out with this horse??

Closing Speed likes: Journalism / Tiztastic / Final Gambit and Sandman

If I’m betting $20 to $24 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box: 3, 8, 14, 17 = $24

$1 Exacta Box : 3/8/14/17/21 w 3/8/14/17/21 = $20

Longshots:

$4 Win/Place – #14 = $8
$4 Win/ Place - #5 - $8
$4 Win/Place - $3 = $8