Saratoga
RACE 13 - 7:02 PM
Belmont S. (Grade I)
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One And one 1/4 Miles
Surface – Dirt
1 – Hill Road
2 – Sovereignty
3 – Rodriguez
4 – Uncaged
5 – Crudo
6 – Baeza
7 – Journalism
8 – Heart of Honor
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| Look Mr. Twist - I"m Knocking IT! Who are we kidding - "Let's Twist again, Like we did last summer!!" |
It’s being held at Saratoga (instead of historic Belmont
Park, which is under reconstruction) and it’s once again being run at 1 ¼ miles instead of the traditional 1 ½
miles – so it will be the same distance this year as the Kentucky Derby.
Speaking of which - #2 Sovereignty - won the Kentucky Derby and then skipped the Preakness – his Trainer William Mott is known for making sure to give his horses plenty of time to recuperate – and in this case, even when a Triple Crown and Immortality could be on the line.
Jockey Junior Alvarado will be on board again – and these two have 3 victories in 5 races.
The horse that Sovereignty narrowly beat in Kentucky is the Preakness winner #7 Journalism. Jockey Umberto Rispoli will be aboard and the two of them have a record of 4 Wins in 6 Races.
Despite the fact that Sovereignty has a recent victory over Journalism – has an inside post, and has had more rest than Journalism --- it’s Journalism who is the morning line favorite at 8/5 odds against Sovereignty’s 2-1 odds….we’ll see who is the favorite come Saturday.
Here’s a look at the rest of the field:
#1 Hill Road – who has 2 wins in 5
attempts – will have Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. on board for the first time. Jockey
Flavien Prat was on board for Hill Road’s recent victory in the Peter Pan
Stakes – I would be very surprised to see Hill Road break the top 3 against
these horses.
#3 Rodriguez – Has 2 wins in 5 races – however he’s hit the board in all 5 races which is likely why the odds makers have him at 6-1. Jockey Mike Smith will be returning to the saddle after these two put a victory in the Wood Memorial, which was Rodriguez last race before suffering a Hoof Bruise.
Rewind the clock back to March and you’d see Rodriguez finished 3rd against Journalism – but beat #6 Baeza – back in January. I don’t think this horse is ready to pull off an upset victory – but with a little luck Rodriguez could be in contention to finish 2nd or 3rd.
#4 Uncaged – has two victories in 4 lifetime races. This will be his first race with Luis Saez and in his most recent race he finished 6th in the Peter Pan stakes losing to #1 Hill Road. His morning odds have him at 30-1…..I don’t think this horse has much of a shot here.
#5 Crudo – Has picked up 2 wins in 3 Races – and has saddled up with John Velazquez in all three of his races. I think both this horse and Rodriquez will look to set the pace.
** If it ends up being a muddy run at Saratoga – the two early pace setters could definitely make this race closer than if it were a firm and fast track.
#6 Baeza – Going off as the 3rd favorite (4-1) - he only has 1 win in 5 attempts – but he’ll have Flavien Prat on board and his most recent finishes were a 2nd place finish against Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby and a 3rd place finish behind both Journalism and Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby.
Solid horse – he’s definitely a horse that could finish 2nd or 3rd….. I just don’t think he can make it to 1st against the two favorites.
#8 Heart of Honor – In his last race he finished 5th in the Preakness. This horse had some success in the Middle East picking up 3 places in Stakes races before trying his luck in the US. He currently sits at 30-1, I would need at least 50-1 odds to consider him coming in for a “Show” (3rd place).
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| Rodriguez and Crudo sounds like a cooking show that Strangely Sensitive Cheetah would totally watch! |
#3 Rodriguez and #5 Crudo will look to take the opening lead – a reasonable pace would be 23+ in the first quarter…..if the clock has them going 22 seconds….they could be setting themselves up for a fade in the final turn.
#2 Sovereignty, #6 Baeza and #7 Journalism will run middle of the pack – the question here will be if Sovereignty decides to sit further back to prevent getting boxed in by either of these two of if he takes the rail and expects a hole to open up in the final turn – bit of a chess match we’ll have to watch unfold.
If Sovereignty sits back – the question then is – will Baeza and Journalism set themselves up closer to the front so they have more room to make their move --- or sit back and see which of these three horses makes the first move going into the final turn??
Unfortunately I don’t have an original answer in this one – I like Journalism to narrowly defeat Sovereignty in this one with Baeza finishing 3rd – just a slight change from the Kentucky Derby finish.
Closing Speed likes: Journalism, Sovereignty, Baeza
I don’t love this race with these odds to bet – I think you
have to drop one of the top three favorites and add Rodriquez and/or Crudo to pull
off a wire to wire type upset to make any money here.
$1 Box Exacta – 2,3,5,7 = $12
$1 Box Trifecta – 2,3,5,7 = $24
However I WOULD consider a Pick 5 or Pick 4 in these races.
Race 9: #2 – Think Big (If My Boy Prince wins I'll be very disappointed in myself!)
Race 10: #1 – Zulu Kingdom (#4 Flying Mohawk as a Back-up)
Race 11: #3 Macho Music / #4 Patch Adams / #5 Citizen Bull / #7 Colloquial (#2 Madaket Road as a back-up)
Race 12: #6 Spirit of St. Louis / #9 Far Bridge (#2 Integration as a back-up)
Race 13: #2 Sovereignty / #7 Journalism
A 50 cent Pick 5 or Pick 4 will cost you $8
A $1 Pick 5 or Pick 4 will cost you $16
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