Preakness - Recap
Lookin At Lucky
First Dude
Jackson Bend
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Yawanna Twist, Dublin, Paddy O’prado, Caracortado, Super Saver, Schoolyard Dreams, Aikenite, Pleasant Prince, Northern Giant
As Super Saver stalked First Dude’s outside shoulder for nearly 3 quarters of a mile – I thought there was some hope of seeing him win the Preakness – the announcer than said that Lookin At Lucky was “looming large” and I presumed we were about to watch the Kentucky Derby champ give perhaps the best three year old horse (Lucky) a stretch run to remember…..and then - Super Saver remembered that he was just an average horse, who got lucky in Kentucky, but this time Lucky was about to get him!
And then Super Saver, and his quest for glory, faded into the background as quickly (unfortunately) as this Triple Crown series will fade…..Lookin At Lucky avoided any unusual mishaps in the Preakness and in my opinion proved to be (what he has been since Eskendereya dropped out) the best three year old horse in the country.
The Preakness didn’t come without a few surprises - First Dude jumped out to the lead in the first turn and just didn’t have the muscle to hang on for the win. The next surprise was Yawanna Twist who made a late push for the victory from the outside – I had dismissed both of these horses from really contending, but clearly they were ready to “run” this past Saturday.
Unfortunately for Dublin he was practically “out” of the running in the Preakness with his first two steps. Poor horse must have been thinking that someone put the “rail” on the wrong side – not that he was running in the wrong direction. With those first few missteps I’m impressed that he finished as solidly as fifth.
Coming out of the final stretch Jackson Bend couldn’t find an empty lane and the delay probably cost him a 2nd place finish.
I’m not completely surprised that Super Saver finished eighth, with the exception of great muddy romp in Kentucky he had always been a slightly above average horse – I am, however, very surprised that with his eighth place finish Schoolyard Dreams and Pleasant Prince didn’t finish ahead of him.
For those of you who don’t know they are saying that Lookin At Lucky will skip the Belmont – which I personally find disappointing, but it’s been a tough few months for Lookin At Lucky and the Belmont is a grind of a race – especially when the Belmont is the fourth (and longest race) Lucky would be running in the past two months.
Preakness Video to follow:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDzf_2NzbZU
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Friday, May 14, 2010
Preakness Stakes
Pimlico
Saturday May 15th , 2010
Estimated Local Post Time: 6:12 pm EST
Name: Preakness Stakes Grade: 1
Purse: $1,000,000
Distance/Restrictions: 1 3/16 Miles, Dirt, 3 Year Olds, STAKES
Aikenite 3rd Fountain of Youth
Schoolyard Dreams 4th Wood Memorial
Pleasant Prince 2nd Florida Derby
Northern Giant 9th Arkansas Derby
Yawanna Twist 2nd Illinois Derby
Jackson Bend 12th K.Y. Derby
Lookin At Lucky 6th K.Y. Derby
Super Saver 1st K.Y. Derby
Caracortado 4th Santa Anita Derby
Paddy O’prado 3rd K.Y. Derby
First Dude 5th Florida Derby
Dublin 7th K.Y. Derby
Similar to the Kentucky Derby I’ve listed the horses and their most pertinent or most recent accomplishments above.
Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver (and Jockey Calvin Borel) attempt to seize the second jewel of the Triple Crown – and I for one am certainly cheering for a Triple Crown winner – however I’m having a very hard time believing Super Saver is going to get it done.
My reasoning is this – with 20 horses navigating the field of any given Kentucky Derby luck tends to play more of factor in that race than perhaps any other American horse race. With that many moving bodies in place – one momentary ill timed decision or one poor placement in the starting gate could cost the most gifted of horses their shot at glory.
In the Derby Super Saver (seen here is his lounge wear) -
(Saver) had a solid starting spot and Calvin Borel once again weaved his way to the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs. However as I see it better horses just suffered worst luck that day.
The Preakness however is perhaps the best test of talent for three year old horses – with a more manageable 12 contenders in this year’s field it makes this race comparable to the prep races many of these horses have been running all season.
With that in mind as I look at the contenders in this race I have Super Saver as perhaps the third or even fourth best horse in this group. So while Borel has been nothing short of magic on the first Saturday in May – I don’t know what kind of smoke and mirrors he could have up his sleeve to keep some of these other (and in my opinion) more talented horses behind him.
The horses that I don’t think have much of a chance in this race are Aikenite (#1), Northern Giant (#4), Yawanna Twist (#5), Caracortado (#9) and First Dude (#11).
The only thing these horses have going for them is rest – which shouldn’t be completely ignored – these horses will have fresher legs then the horses coming off only a two week rest from the Kentucky Derby, however there’s also a reason these horses didn’t make the 20 horse “club” of the Kentucky Derby in the first place.
The horses that I think have the potential to beat Super Saver are as follows:
Schoolyard Dreams (#2) – Disappeared in his last race, however he may be able to control the early pace of this race – and when this horse is on his game he won’t be easy to beat. Currently at 15/1 he might be worth taking a flyer on.
Pleasant Prince (#3) – Ice Box (2nd in the KY Derby) barely beat this horse in the Florida Derby, the Prince hasn’t seemed to improve since that race. He’s tough down the stretch and while I don’t think he’ll win the Preakness – I think he could manage a place in this race.
Jackson Bend (#6) – Outside of the Kentucky Derby this horse hasn’t finished worse than second place for over a year. With the luck factor reduced and the skill factor improved in the Preakness I think Jackson Bend has got to be a strong consideration for your top three –
Lookin At Lucky (#7) – he has had three very poor consecutive finishes – due to either a poor choice made by the jockey (he has a new jockey for this race) or a terrible post position (he has a gem of a post position in this one). Lookin At Lucky could be the most gifted horse in this race, the only questions as I see it are – Will his ironic string of bad luck continue, and did the last two rough outings (where he collided with horses and also the rail) affect him as a race horse? They do say 7 is a lucky number.
Trackmaster.com – likes Paddy O’prado (#10) to pull out the victory, and I think that if Dublin (#12) weren’t positioned on the outside he would certainly be more of a pre-race factor to consider.
As I see it Schoolyard Dreams, Super Saver and Yawanna Twist will make things very interesting in the first half of the race. Jackson Bend and Paddy O’Prado won’t be far behind. As they come for home – I think Lookin At Lucky will find his stride and finish ahead of Schoolyard Dreams (2nd) and Super Saver (3rd).
Closing Speed likes – 7-2-8
*Seeing how Summertime is just around the corner - here's a little something from a pleasant (and Fresh) Prince -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_PDns23RWY
Saturday May 15th , 2010
Estimated Local Post Time: 6:12 pm EST
Name: Preakness Stakes Grade: 1
Purse: $1,000,000
Distance/Restrictions: 1 3/16 Miles, Dirt, 3 Year Olds, STAKES
Aikenite 3rd Fountain of Youth
Schoolyard Dreams 4th Wood Memorial
Pleasant Prince 2nd Florida Derby
Northern Giant 9th Arkansas Derby
Yawanna Twist 2nd Illinois Derby
Jackson Bend 12th K.Y. Derby
Lookin At Lucky 6th K.Y. Derby
Super Saver 1st K.Y. Derby
Caracortado 4th Santa Anita Derby
Paddy O’prado 3rd K.Y. Derby
First Dude 5th Florida Derby
Dublin 7th K.Y. Derby
Similar to the Kentucky Derby I’ve listed the horses and their most pertinent or most recent accomplishments above.
Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver (and Jockey Calvin Borel) attempt to seize the second jewel of the Triple Crown – and I for one am certainly cheering for a Triple Crown winner – however I’m having a very hard time believing Super Saver is going to get it done.
My reasoning is this – with 20 horses navigating the field of any given Kentucky Derby luck tends to play more of factor in that race than perhaps any other American horse race. With that many moving bodies in place – one momentary ill timed decision or one poor placement in the starting gate could cost the most gifted of horses their shot at glory.
In the Derby Super Saver (seen here is his lounge wear) -
(Saver) had a solid starting spot and Calvin Borel once again weaved his way to the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs. However as I see it better horses just suffered worst luck that day.
The Preakness however is perhaps the best test of talent for three year old horses – with a more manageable 12 contenders in this year’s field it makes this race comparable to the prep races many of these horses have been running all season.
With that in mind as I look at the contenders in this race I have Super Saver as perhaps the third or even fourth best horse in this group. So while Borel has been nothing short of magic on the first Saturday in May – I don’t know what kind of smoke and mirrors he could have up his sleeve to keep some of these other (and in my opinion) more talented horses behind him.
The horses that I don’t think have much of a chance in this race are Aikenite (#1), Northern Giant (#4), Yawanna Twist (#5), Caracortado (#9) and First Dude (#11).
The only thing these horses have going for them is rest – which shouldn’t be completely ignored – these horses will have fresher legs then the horses coming off only a two week rest from the Kentucky Derby, however there’s also a reason these horses didn’t make the 20 horse “club” of the Kentucky Derby in the first place.
The horses that I think have the potential to beat Super Saver are as follows:
Schoolyard Dreams (#2) – Disappeared in his last race, however he may be able to control the early pace of this race – and when this horse is on his game he won’t be easy to beat. Currently at 15/1 he might be worth taking a flyer on.
Pleasant Prince (#3) – Ice Box (2nd in the KY Derby) barely beat this horse in the Florida Derby, the Prince hasn’t seemed to improve since that race. He’s tough down the stretch and while I don’t think he’ll win the Preakness – I think he could manage a place in this race.
Jackson Bend (#6) – Outside of the Kentucky Derby this horse hasn’t finished worse than second place for over a year. With the luck factor reduced and the skill factor improved in the Preakness I think Jackson Bend has got to be a strong consideration for your top three –
Lookin At Lucky (#7) – he has had three very poor consecutive finishes – due to either a poor choice made by the jockey (he has a new jockey for this race) or a terrible post position (he has a gem of a post position in this one). Lookin At Lucky could be the most gifted horse in this race, the only questions as I see it are – Will his ironic string of bad luck continue, and did the last two rough outings (where he collided with horses and also the rail) affect him as a race horse? They do say 7 is a lucky number.
Trackmaster.com – likes Paddy O’prado (#10) to pull out the victory, and I think that if Dublin (#12) weren’t positioned on the outside he would certainly be more of a pre-race factor to consider.
As I see it Schoolyard Dreams, Super Saver and Yawanna Twist will make things very interesting in the first half of the race. Jackson Bend and Paddy O’Prado won’t be far behind. As they come for home – I think Lookin At Lucky will find his stride and finish ahead of Schoolyard Dreams (2nd) and Super Saver (3rd).
Closing Speed likes – 7-2-8
*Seeing how Summertime is just around the corner - here's a little something from a pleasant (and Fresh) Prince -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_PDns23RWY
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Kentucky Derby - Recap
Kentucky Derby - Recap
Super Saver
Ice Box
Paddy O’prado
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Make Music For Me, Noble’s Promise, Lookin At Lucky, Dublin, Stately Victor, Mission Impazible, Devil May Care, American Lion, Jackson Bend, Discreetly Mine, Dean’s Kitten, Conveyance, Homeboykris, Sidney’s Candy, Line Of David, Awesome Act, Backtalk
Twenty years ago there was a popular marketing campaign based on Football / Baseball / Athletic super-star Bo Jackson – many of us remember the popular saying….Bo Knows –
After watching Calvin Borel win his third Kentucky Derby in his last four efforts – it’s crystal clear that Bo-rel knows Churchill Downs. I’m fascinated by what odds are going to be on any horse he rides next year. Trainer Todd Pletcher (who finally broke his much ballyhooed winless streak in the Kentucky Derby) was quoted as saying that Borel is statistically five lengths better on any horse at Churchill Downs than he is at any other track – and for those who don’t know, five lengths is a lot of horse people! In the Derby that’s the difference between the first place winner Super Saver and the third place show Paddy O’Prado.
Calvin Borel seems to think Super Saver will break the 32 year Triple Crown drought – however from what I’ve seen the only way any of us are going to see a Triple Crown winner this year is if we go to the movies and watch Secretariat this fall….staring Diane Lane –
Yeah – horse racing and Diane Lane – the question isn’t will I go see the movie, the question is once I’m there will I ever leave.
To wrap up my blog on the Kentucky Derby I will finish it up in a Bo knows kind of way.
* I knew when the first ¼ mile was run in 22.6 and Sidney’s Candy was in second and Line of David was in 3rd that those picks were doomed. It was just too fast a pace for this Derby’s distance. As you review the race you’ll see Sidney’s Candy simply wilt near the 1 mile marker and in a matter of seconds go from 2nd place to 12th.
* I knew that when Lookin At Lucky got body checked once – that his odds of recovery were slim – when he got bounced a second time I knew his odds of recovery went from slim to none. Still all things considered a 6th place finish isn’t bad for this horse – watch for him in the Preakness and Belmont.
* I knew that Ice Box would be trouble down the stretch if he got clear – he just didn’t get clear soon enough – from what I’m reading he’s skipping the Preakness – but he’ll be very dangerous in the Belmont.
Two horses that surprised me were Paddy O’prado and Make Music for Me – Very solid outings for two horses who seem to be peaking at the right time.
For anyone who wasn’t at the track – this Kentucky Derby had the most differing opinions I’ve seen to date. Two guys who I respect greatly for their handicapping skills had selected Conveyance (15th) and Sidney’s Candy (17th) – as I spoke to people at the track I heard everything from Dean’s Kitten to Awesome Act and I even managed to throw one lady into a bit of panic when she told me that because she was Irish she knew she had to bet that way…..when I inquired whether she meant Dublin or Paddy O’prado her eyes lit up and she sprinted for the betting booth…..apparently she had missed Paddy O’prado as representing Ireland.
In the end it was a great start to what I think will become a very interesting Triple Crown to watch – and while Closing Speed “knows” Super Saver won’t be able to win the Preakness and Belmont – as race fan I hope I’m wrong.
Kentucky Derby Video to follow:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLlT9Rv5RCY&feature=player_embedded#!
Super Saver
Ice Box
Paddy O’prado
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Make Music For Me, Noble’s Promise, Lookin At Lucky, Dublin, Stately Victor, Mission Impazible, Devil May Care, American Lion, Jackson Bend, Discreetly Mine, Dean’s Kitten, Conveyance, Homeboykris, Sidney’s Candy, Line Of David, Awesome Act, Backtalk
Twenty years ago there was a popular marketing campaign based on Football / Baseball / Athletic super-star Bo Jackson – many of us remember the popular saying….Bo Knows –
After watching Calvin Borel win his third Kentucky Derby in his last four efforts – it’s crystal clear that Bo-rel knows Churchill Downs. I’m fascinated by what odds are going to be on any horse he rides next year. Trainer Todd Pletcher (who finally broke his much ballyhooed winless streak in the Kentucky Derby) was quoted as saying that Borel is statistically five lengths better on any horse at Churchill Downs than he is at any other track – and for those who don’t know, five lengths is a lot of horse people! In the Derby that’s the difference between the first place winner Super Saver and the third place show Paddy O’Prado.
Calvin Borel seems to think Super Saver will break the 32 year Triple Crown drought – however from what I’ve seen the only way any of us are going to see a Triple Crown winner this year is if we go to the movies and watch Secretariat this fall….staring Diane Lane –
Yeah – horse racing and Diane Lane – the question isn’t will I go see the movie, the question is once I’m there will I ever leave.
To wrap up my blog on the Kentucky Derby I will finish it up in a Bo knows kind of way.
* I knew when the first ¼ mile was run in 22.6 and Sidney’s Candy was in second and Line of David was in 3rd that those picks were doomed. It was just too fast a pace for this Derby’s distance. As you review the race you’ll see Sidney’s Candy simply wilt near the 1 mile marker and in a matter of seconds go from 2nd place to 12th.
* I knew that when Lookin At Lucky got body checked once – that his odds of recovery were slim – when he got bounced a second time I knew his odds of recovery went from slim to none. Still all things considered a 6th place finish isn’t bad for this horse – watch for him in the Preakness and Belmont.
* I knew that Ice Box would be trouble down the stretch if he got clear – he just didn’t get clear soon enough – from what I’m reading he’s skipping the Preakness – but he’ll be very dangerous in the Belmont.
Two horses that surprised me were Paddy O’prado and Make Music for Me – Very solid outings for two horses who seem to be peaking at the right time.
For anyone who wasn’t at the track – this Kentucky Derby had the most differing opinions I’ve seen to date. Two guys who I respect greatly for their handicapping skills had selected Conveyance (15th) and Sidney’s Candy (17th) – as I spoke to people at the track I heard everything from Dean’s Kitten to Awesome Act and I even managed to throw one lady into a bit of panic when she told me that because she was Irish she knew she had to bet that way…..when I inquired whether she meant Dublin or Paddy O’prado her eyes lit up and she sprinted for the betting booth…..apparently she had missed Paddy O’prado as representing Ireland.
In the end it was a great start to what I think will become a very interesting Triple Crown to watch – and while Closing Speed “knows” Super Saver won’t be able to win the Preakness and Belmont – as race fan I hope I’m wrong.
Kentucky Derby Video to follow:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLlT9Rv5RCY&feature=player_embedded#!
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs
Saturday May 1st, 2010
Estimated Local Post Time: 6:24 pm
Name: Kentucky Derby Grade: 1
Purse: $2,000,000
Distance/Restrictions: 1 1/4 Miles, Dirt, 3 Year Olds, STAKES
Lookin At Lucky 3/1 1st Rebel Stakes
Ice Box 10/1 1st Florida Derby
Noble’s Promise 12/1 2nd Rebel Stakes
Super Saver 15/1 2nd Arkansas Derby
Line Of David 30/1 1st Arkansas Derby
Stately Victor 30/1 1st Bluegrass Stakes
American Lion 30/1 1st Illinois Derby
Dean’s Kitten 50/1 1st Lane’s End Stakes
Make Music For Me 50/1 3rd Cash Call Futurity
Paddy O’prado 20/1 2nd Blue Grass Stakes
Devil May Care 10/1 1st Bonnie Miss
Conveyance 12/1 2nd Sunland Derby
Jackson Bend 12/1 2nd Wood Memorial
Mission Impazible 20/1 1st Louisiana Derby
Discreetly Mine 30/1 4th Louisiana Derby
Awesome Act 10/1 3rd Wood Memorial
Dublin 12/1 3rd Arkansas Derby
Backtalk 50/1 3rd Illinois Derby
Homeboykris 50/1 5th Holy Bull Stakes
Sidney’s Candy 5/1 1st Santa Anita Derby
For the second consecutive year the prospective Kentucky Derby Favorite has dropped out of the race – last season it was I Want Revenge and this season it is Eskendereya bowing out.
Last year the result of a rainy, muddy Kentucky Derby without it’s star three year old – resulted in a 50-1 longshot (and personal headache to yours truly) Mine That Bird slopping his way to the winner’s circle and sending those with winning tickets into a delirium.
Well this year many believe that a relative “longshot” could once again bring home a victory in the rain. Weathermen are reporting that it could be a very wet track on Saturday – and to be honest that’s the most confidence anyone is showing in regards to what might happen on the track this Saturday.
Usually I break these races down by listing the horses and their accomplishments however I attempted to cover that in the horse listing above.
To keep things shorter I will start by writing that I don’t believe horses 13 thru 20 (Jackson Bend – Sidney’s Candy) will be able to seize the first “jewel” in the Triple Crown.
Awesome Act may be the most comfortable with his starting position – however I’m just not sold on him being the best closing horse in this race.
Sidney’s Candy certainly has the talent to win this race – but the 20th spot really goes against his strength of being able to run with the leaders and then break away in the end. I wouldn’t be surprised if this horse ends up going very wide in the first turn which could result in him having absolutely nothing in the tank in the final stretch. Very tough post for this immensely talented horse – hopefully he’ll have a better spot in the Preakness.
Another horse who has received a less than stellar starting outlook is the favorite Lookin At Lucky. Here is what his Trainer Bob Baffert had to say about his opening spot –
“This horse, he can’t catch a break," Baffert said. "We named him wrong. You know what? You can’t worry about that. We’ve made it this far. Nothing surprises me with this horse. He just can’t catch a break. He’s either inside or outside. It is what it is. You can’t worry about that. You’ve got to break well. If he doesn’t break well then you’re screwed."
In short, the best horses are either not in the race or they have lousy starting spots. And on top of all of that weather will probably be a factor in this race…i.e come this Saturday….
Here’s how I see the race unfolding – Line of David (#5) will establish the lead and in my estimation will hold that lead throughout most of the race and into the final stretch. Conveyance (#12) will challenge that early lead and ride on Line of David’s shoulder in the early going.
However while the camera is following the lead horse – this race will be won or lost several lengths behind him coming out of the second turn.
*If Ice Box can find an open lane without going well wide in the final turn – I think he could catch Line of David. Ice Box has those great late strides that could help him close this race out.
*If Lookin At Lucky can find an open lane without going well wide in the final turn – I know he has the talent to catch Line of David – after two sub-par rides on this horse Jockey Garrett Gomez kind of owes ownership and this horse the ride of his lifetime – and that may be exactly what he’ll need to pull off a victory here.
*If Stately Victor isn’t just a Synthetic Track horse, and he actually can run on the dirt then….if he can find an open lane without going well wide in the final turn – I believe he could challenge Line of David. Incidentally Stately Victor finished dead last in his one and only appearance here at Churchill Downs – might have been a fluke, might have been a trend.
*Super Saver will be ridden by last year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness winning jockey Calvin Borel – and when a jockey has won two out of the last three Kentucky Derbies I think you have to give Super Saver some consideration. Super Saver gave Line of David everything he had in a second place finish in the Arkansas Derby, however Line of David showed more heart last time out….we’ll see if the added distance makes any difference.
Horse Racing Nation’s David Crone likes the Filly Devil May Care –
ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5Nm6CUnP5k&feature=player_embedded
He and I disagree on the early pace of this race, and also perhaps on the importance of the post position – but in the end I think we’re both just shrugging our shoulders and in his case saying “why not Devil May Care?”
Because again in this race –
From everything I’ve seen this season – I like Line Of David in this race, and here’s why:
He’s shown improvement with each of his last three races, he should be able to set the early pace and by doing so avoid a “mess” of traffic coming out of the final turn. He defeated four pretty solid horses on the dirt in the Arkansas Derby – so unlike an American Lion or even Stately Victor – I feel this horse has risen to the kind of challenge he’ll see in this race.
I can’t help but think that one of these powerful closers is going to catch him from behind – like we’ve seen in previous Kentucky finishes with Street Sense or Mine That Bird (both ridden by Borel). But come this Saturday I’ll be rooting for Line of David to pull off a victory.
Closing Speed likes: 5-4-1
That’s not how I would bet this race – I think if you bet $10 to win on 2,3,4,5,6,10,11,and 12 that would be $80 and if the odds stayed the same at the very least you would win about $120 at the most you’d probably win (again if the odds stay the same) over $300 - provided one of those longshots wins of course.
Make sure to tune in it should be a fun one this Saturday - also I've attached a great Mint Julep recipe in the blog below. And of course the musical selection to get your weekend going.....Mr. Frank Sinatra & an odd 1930's Hollywood Montage with of course....Anything Goes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-qPHG4i3u8
Saturday May 1st, 2010
Estimated Local Post Time: 6:24 pm
Name: Kentucky Derby Grade: 1
Purse: $2,000,000
Distance/Restrictions: 1 1/4 Miles, Dirt, 3 Year Olds, STAKES
Lookin At Lucky 3/1 1st Rebel Stakes
Ice Box 10/1 1st Florida Derby
Noble’s Promise 12/1 2nd Rebel Stakes
Super Saver 15/1 2nd Arkansas Derby
Line Of David 30/1 1st Arkansas Derby
Stately Victor 30/1 1st Bluegrass Stakes
American Lion 30/1 1st Illinois Derby
Dean’s Kitten 50/1 1st Lane’s End Stakes
Make Music For Me 50/1 3rd Cash Call Futurity
Paddy O’prado 20/1 2nd Blue Grass Stakes
Devil May Care 10/1 1st Bonnie Miss
Conveyance 12/1 2nd Sunland Derby
Jackson Bend 12/1 2nd Wood Memorial
Mission Impazible 20/1 1st Louisiana Derby
Discreetly Mine 30/1 4th Louisiana Derby
Awesome Act 10/1 3rd Wood Memorial
Dublin 12/1 3rd Arkansas Derby
Backtalk 50/1 3rd Illinois Derby
Homeboykris 50/1 5th Holy Bull Stakes
Sidney’s Candy 5/1 1st Santa Anita Derby
For the second consecutive year the prospective Kentucky Derby Favorite has dropped out of the race – last season it was I Want Revenge and this season it is Eskendereya bowing out.
Last year the result of a rainy, muddy Kentucky Derby without it’s star three year old – resulted in a 50-1 longshot (and personal headache to yours truly) Mine That Bird slopping his way to the winner’s circle and sending those with winning tickets into a delirium.
Well this year many believe that a relative “longshot” could once again bring home a victory in the rain. Weathermen are reporting that it could be a very wet track on Saturday – and to be honest that’s the most confidence anyone is showing in regards to what might happen on the track this Saturday.
Usually I break these races down by listing the horses and their accomplishments however I attempted to cover that in the horse listing above.
To keep things shorter I will start by writing that I don’t believe horses 13 thru 20 (Jackson Bend – Sidney’s Candy) will be able to seize the first “jewel” in the Triple Crown.
Awesome Act may be the most comfortable with his starting position – however I’m just not sold on him being the best closing horse in this race.
Sidney’s Candy certainly has the talent to win this race – but the 20th spot really goes against his strength of being able to run with the leaders and then break away in the end. I wouldn’t be surprised if this horse ends up going very wide in the first turn which could result in him having absolutely nothing in the tank in the final stretch. Very tough post for this immensely talented horse – hopefully he’ll have a better spot in the Preakness.
Another horse who has received a less than stellar starting outlook is the favorite Lookin At Lucky. Here is what his Trainer Bob Baffert had to say about his opening spot –
“This horse, he can’t catch a break," Baffert said. "We named him wrong. You know what? You can’t worry about that. We’ve made it this far. Nothing surprises me with this horse. He just can’t catch a break. He’s either inside or outside. It is what it is. You can’t worry about that. You’ve got to break well. If he doesn’t break well then you’re screwed."
In short, the best horses are either not in the race or they have lousy starting spots. And on top of all of that weather will probably be a factor in this race…i.e come this Saturday….
Here’s how I see the race unfolding – Line of David (#5) will establish the lead and in my estimation will hold that lead throughout most of the race and into the final stretch. Conveyance (#12) will challenge that early lead and ride on Line of David’s shoulder in the early going.
However while the camera is following the lead horse – this race will be won or lost several lengths behind him coming out of the second turn.
*If Ice Box can find an open lane without going well wide in the final turn – I think he could catch Line of David. Ice Box has those great late strides that could help him close this race out.
*If Lookin At Lucky can find an open lane without going well wide in the final turn – I know he has the talent to catch Line of David – after two sub-par rides on this horse Jockey Garrett Gomez kind of owes ownership and this horse the ride of his lifetime – and that may be exactly what he’ll need to pull off a victory here.
*If Stately Victor isn’t just a Synthetic Track horse, and he actually can run on the dirt then….if he can find an open lane without going well wide in the final turn – I believe he could challenge Line of David. Incidentally Stately Victor finished dead last in his one and only appearance here at Churchill Downs – might have been a fluke, might have been a trend.
*Super Saver will be ridden by last year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness winning jockey Calvin Borel – and when a jockey has won two out of the last three Kentucky Derbies I think you have to give Super Saver some consideration. Super Saver gave Line of David everything he had in a second place finish in the Arkansas Derby, however Line of David showed more heart last time out….we’ll see if the added distance makes any difference.
Horse Racing Nation’s David Crone likes the Filly Devil May Care –
ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5Nm6CUnP5k&feature=player_embedded
He and I disagree on the early pace of this race, and also perhaps on the importance of the post position – but in the end I think we’re both just shrugging our shoulders and in his case saying “why not Devil May Care?”
Because again in this race –
From everything I’ve seen this season – I like Line Of David in this race, and here’s why:
He’s shown improvement with each of his last three races, he should be able to set the early pace and by doing so avoid a “mess” of traffic coming out of the final turn. He defeated four pretty solid horses on the dirt in the Arkansas Derby – so unlike an American Lion or even Stately Victor – I feel this horse has risen to the kind of challenge he’ll see in this race.
I can’t help but think that one of these powerful closers is going to catch him from behind – like we’ve seen in previous Kentucky finishes with Street Sense or Mine That Bird (both ridden by Borel). But come this Saturday I’ll be rooting for Line of David to pull off a victory.
Closing Speed likes: 5-4-1
That’s not how I would bet this race – I think if you bet $10 to win on 2,3,4,5,6,10,11,and 12 that would be $80 and if the odds stayed the same at the very least you would win about $120 at the most you’d probably win (again if the odds stay the same) over $300 - provided one of those longshots wins of course.
Make sure to tune in it should be a fun one this Saturday - also I've attached a great Mint Julep recipe in the blog below. And of course the musical selection to get your weekend going.....Mr. Frank Sinatra & an odd 1930's Hollywood Montage with of course....Anything Goes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-qPHG4i3u8
A Proper Mint Julep
A Mint Julep when poorly made will taste like cheap bourbon carelessly mixed with a thick syrup (probably a green syrup) and when swallowed has a leafy aftertaste of broken chunks of Mint Leaves stuck to your tongue - giving you the option of being daring and swallowing the leaf whole, or using one of your fingers to rescue the leaf from your bite and then send it to the trash. This my friends is the sad tale of how a once delightful southern drink is currently being made by those who have clearly forgotten that good things come to those who wait.
Now a proper Mint Julep will melt your cares away and refresh your being like a cool lazy Carolina breeze that has set sail from the sea just to join you as you both lay back and watch the sun's descent. So here's how you make that second, more proper Mint Julep. This recipe comes from the irreplaceable Esquire Handbook For Hosts, with a mild twist of my own.
You'll need to prepare these 30 minutes....yes 30 minutes before you wish to enjoy them or present them to your guests.
Pour a measure (per guest) of Kentucky Bourbon over several sprigs of mint and allow this to stand for half an hour (yes, seriously still half an hour).
Place glasses (must be glass) in the freezer.
In a large seperate glass dissolve a teaspoon of sugar (per guest) in a little water. When half an hour has passed, remove the mint from the bourbon (or whiskey) and pour into the glass of sugar and water. Pour this mixture back and forth between the two glasses until the liquids are well mixed.
Remove the Glasses from the freezer (with napkins or towels so not to leave fingermarks on the glass) fill with ice (preferably crushed) and pour the Bourbon / Sugar and Water mixture over it - add mint - and Stir briskly.
Enjoy.
Now a proper Mint Julep will melt your cares away and refresh your being like a cool lazy Carolina breeze that has set sail from the sea just to join you as you both lay back and watch the sun's descent. So here's how you make that second, more proper Mint Julep. This recipe comes from the irreplaceable Esquire Handbook For Hosts, with a mild twist of my own.
You'll need to prepare these 30 minutes....yes 30 minutes before you wish to enjoy them or present them to your guests.
Pour a measure (per guest) of Kentucky Bourbon over several sprigs of mint and allow this to stand for half an hour (yes, seriously still half an hour).
Place glasses (must be glass) in the freezer.
In a large seperate glass dissolve a teaspoon of sugar (per guest) in a little water. When half an hour has passed, remove the mint from the bourbon (or whiskey) and pour into the glass of sugar and water. Pour this mixture back and forth between the two glasses until the liquids are well mixed.
Remove the Glasses from the freezer (with napkins or towels so not to leave fingermarks on the glass) fill with ice (preferably crushed) and pour the Bourbon / Sugar and Water mixture over it - add mint - and Stir briskly.
Enjoy.
Friday, April 23, 2010
Derby Trial Stakes
Churchill Downs
Saturday April 24, 2010
Estimated Local Post Time: 5:17 pm
Name: Derby Trial Stakes Grade: III
Purse: $200,000
Distance/Restrictions: 1 Miles, Dirt, 3 Year Olds, STAKES
Game On Dude
Soaring Empire
Privilaged
Pleasant Prince
Hurricane Ike
Miner’s Reserve
Wow Wow Wow
Hear Ye Hear Ye
Aikenite
Eightyfiveinafifty
The Derby Trial Stakes primarily serves as a warm-up to the Preakness in three weeks – however in a few cases a couple of these horses, should they pull off a victory here, could turn right around and run in the Kentucky Derby next Saturday. It’s unlikely but it is possible.
The favorite in this outing will be the very explosive Eightyfiveinafifty. Had it not been for a strange equipment malfunction in the Whirlaway Stakes a few months ago – 85ina50 could have possibly already secured his spot for next week’s race.
His morning odds are 8 to 5 (kind of fitting if you think about it) – and everything about this race plays in his favor. There’s mild competition in this field – but a 1 mile race is a tailor made distance for this horse who will detonate out of the gate and set the course on fire in the early quarter mile – And once he establishes the lead – he’s tough to catch.
The two obstacles he’ll need to overcome is his outside post – which does present a challenge because of how much he needs that early lead – and the second most challenging factor for this horse is that…..he’s kind of an immature horse….i.e. he might be a little on the dumb side.
He reminds me a little of the Tim Robbins character “Nuke” LaLoosh from Bull Durham –
In that he’s an incredibly gifted horse physically, however in his last race he completely lost focus in the early going (staring at the infield instead of straight ahead) and it’s that kind of lack of focus that could cost this horse what should be a relatively easy win for him. Could that lost easy win be this Saturday?
Hurricane Ike (#5) finished a fading second behind Eightyfiveinafifty in their last race, the Bay Shore Stakes – currently he sits at 5/1 which I think is a little too generous for this horse – 8/1 or 10/1 might have me interested.
Pleasant Prince (#4) lost only by a whisker in the Florida Derby finishing 2nd behind winner Ice Box – and while his Florida outing was impressive he followed it up with a less than stellar 7th place in the Blue Grass Stakes.
This will be Pleasant Prince’s third race in little more than a month – and it seems to me that Ownership here is pushing for this horse to contend in at least one of the Triple Crown races. The big question is – did this horse just not “take” to the Blue Grass track or is this horse just too spent for a great outing here? I think you bet with caution here.
For many in this field this will be a rematch of the Florida Derby including Game On Dude who finished 7th, immediately followed by Soaring Empire (8th) and finally Miner’s Reserve who finished next to last in 10th.
I really thought Soaring Empire might turn it on right about now and blossom into something formidable, and with three year old horses it could still happen, but with Game On Dude, Soaring Empire and Miner’s Reserve I don’t expect any trips to the winners circle this Saturday.
Privilaged (#3) traveled from an unimpressive stint in California and finished 3rd in the recent Swale Stakes race (#8 Hear Ye Hear Ye finished 4th)– This horse will need some help – but at 15-1 he’s an interesting prospect. I’m not necessarily thrilled with his ability as much as I am unmoved by the rest of the field – such as……
Wow Wow Wow who has simply been Bad Bad Bad in his last three races finishing from most recent to least recent 10th, 8th, 8th, and 5th. He did win a 1 mile dirt race last November but let’s just say I don’t think Thanksgiving is going to come again this April. Wow Wow Wow is exactly what I would say if he wins.
And finally there’s (#9) Aikenite who also finished very poorly, 9th, in the Blue Grass Stakes. However in the Fountain of Youth Stakes he finished 3rd behind Eskendereya and Jackson Bend – and if his current odds of 6/1 remain I think he’s a good pick for second place.
In closing I think this race is Eightyfiveinafifty’s to lose – I think there’s a chance Pleasant Prince (if he’s not fatigued) could challenge him – but even then this horse is just dominate at 1 mile.
Closing Speed likes 10-4-5
For your entertainment pleasure - the song Nuke can't figure out the correct lyrics too - Try A Little Tenderness, by Mr. Otis Redding.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dael4sb42nI
Saturday April 24, 2010
Estimated Local Post Time: 5:17 pm
Name: Derby Trial Stakes Grade: III
Purse: $200,000
Distance/Restrictions: 1 Miles, Dirt, 3 Year Olds, STAKES
Game On Dude
Soaring Empire
Privilaged
Pleasant Prince
Hurricane Ike
Miner’s Reserve
Wow Wow Wow
Hear Ye Hear Ye
Aikenite
Eightyfiveinafifty
The Derby Trial Stakes primarily serves as a warm-up to the Preakness in three weeks – however in a few cases a couple of these horses, should they pull off a victory here, could turn right around and run in the Kentucky Derby next Saturday. It’s unlikely but it is possible.
The favorite in this outing will be the very explosive Eightyfiveinafifty. Had it not been for a strange equipment malfunction in the Whirlaway Stakes a few months ago – 85ina50 could have possibly already secured his spot for next week’s race.
His morning odds are 8 to 5 (kind of fitting if you think about it) – and everything about this race plays in his favor. There’s mild competition in this field – but a 1 mile race is a tailor made distance for this horse who will detonate out of the gate and set the course on fire in the early quarter mile – And once he establishes the lead – he’s tough to catch.
The two obstacles he’ll need to overcome is his outside post – which does present a challenge because of how much he needs that early lead – and the second most challenging factor for this horse is that…..he’s kind of an immature horse….i.e. he might be a little on the dumb side.
He reminds me a little of the Tim Robbins character “Nuke” LaLoosh from Bull Durham –
In that he’s an incredibly gifted horse physically, however in his last race he completely lost focus in the early going (staring at the infield instead of straight ahead) and it’s that kind of lack of focus that could cost this horse what should be a relatively easy win for him. Could that lost easy win be this Saturday?
Hurricane Ike (#5) finished a fading second behind Eightyfiveinafifty in their last race, the Bay Shore Stakes – currently he sits at 5/1 which I think is a little too generous for this horse – 8/1 or 10/1 might have me interested.
Pleasant Prince (#4) lost only by a whisker in the Florida Derby finishing 2nd behind winner Ice Box – and while his Florida outing was impressive he followed it up with a less than stellar 7th place in the Blue Grass Stakes.
This will be Pleasant Prince’s third race in little more than a month – and it seems to me that Ownership here is pushing for this horse to contend in at least one of the Triple Crown races. The big question is – did this horse just not “take” to the Blue Grass track or is this horse just too spent for a great outing here? I think you bet with caution here.
For many in this field this will be a rematch of the Florida Derby including Game On Dude who finished 7th, immediately followed by Soaring Empire (8th) and finally Miner’s Reserve who finished next to last in 10th.
I really thought Soaring Empire might turn it on right about now and blossom into something formidable, and with three year old horses it could still happen, but with Game On Dude, Soaring Empire and Miner’s Reserve I don’t expect any trips to the winners circle this Saturday.
Privilaged (#3) traveled from an unimpressive stint in California and finished 3rd in the recent Swale Stakes race (#8 Hear Ye Hear Ye finished 4th)– This horse will need some help – but at 15-1 he’s an interesting prospect. I’m not necessarily thrilled with his ability as much as I am unmoved by the rest of the field – such as……
Wow Wow Wow who has simply been Bad Bad Bad in his last three races finishing from most recent to least recent 10th, 8th, 8th, and 5th. He did win a 1 mile dirt race last November but let’s just say I don’t think Thanksgiving is going to come again this April. Wow Wow Wow is exactly what I would say if he wins.
And finally there’s (#9) Aikenite who also finished very poorly, 9th, in the Blue Grass Stakes. However in the Fountain of Youth Stakes he finished 3rd behind Eskendereya and Jackson Bend – and if his current odds of 6/1 remain I think he’s a good pick for second place.
In closing I think this race is Eightyfiveinafifty’s to lose – I think there’s a chance Pleasant Prince (if he’s not fatigued) could challenge him – but even then this horse is just dominate at 1 mile.
Closing Speed likes 10-4-5
For your entertainment pleasure - the song Nuke can't figure out the correct lyrics too - Try A Little Tenderness, by Mr. Otis Redding.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dael4sb42nI
Monday, April 19, 2010
Coolmore Lexington Stakes - Recap
Coolmore - Recap
Exhi
Bushwacked
UptownCharlieBrown
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Chief Council, Prince Will I Am, Kettle River, Distorted Dave, Heavenville, Krypton, Connemara, Call Shot, Lonesome Street.
$2 Win Ticket = $41.80
$2 Tri-fecta = $1,876.40
Well…..I thought there might be an upset brewing in the Coolmore, I just didn’t foresee the “right” horses.
I do not write this blog to glamorize the gambling aspect of Horse Racing – I actually write this blog (and pester my readers to read it) for the sole purpose of entertaining and informing them in regards to the Kentucky Derby / Triple Crown excitement that begins in a very short time.
In my opinion every American should have a favorite horse.
However…..there is the Right and Wrong aspect of it – that can only be measured by people literally putting their money where their mouths are (or their thoughts are) – and as you can see by the $2 Tri-fecta investment that returned $1,876 and change – not many people saw this one coming.
As you will see Exhi made this race very simple. He broke well from the gate, was unafraid of setting an up-tempo pace in the early half mile and as they hit the final stretch we saw that no one was Waiting for Exhi ---
Too much of a strech for Waiting to Exhale?? Yeah probably.....anway Exhi proved that the remainder of these horses simply aren’t good enough, or haven’t matured enough, to go to the next level (i.e. the Kentucky Derby or Preakness).
I expect to see Exhi take a chance in the Preakness should he be invited. The distance there should be to his liking and he’ll have an advantage of being more rested than any of the contenders from the Kentucky Derby who will only have two weeks to prepare for the second jewel in the triple crown.
While I predicted surprise in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes --- I, myself was surprised when Bushwacked not only turned out to be a 5/1 choice at the start of the race, but finished in second place. Clearly Keeneland bettors knew something – that I didn’t see in Bushwacked’s previous races.
I was mildly disappointed with Heavenville’s finish, however I was stunned with Connemara’s tenth place outing - ugly.
Finally if I was going to be wrong about an upset I wanted third place finisher UptownCharlieBrown to come out on top and turn around and give the Kentucky Derby a shot. Unlike most sports there is no…..”maybe next year”….in Triple Crown racing. From what I’m reading they certainly want this horse to run in a few major stakes later this summer – so maybe we’ll see him for the last race that I’ll cover for the season, the West Virginia Derby.
Video to follow:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cy_3hHrlQAI&feature=player_embedded
Exhi
Bushwacked
UptownCharlieBrown
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Chief Council, Prince Will I Am, Kettle River, Distorted Dave, Heavenville, Krypton, Connemara, Call Shot, Lonesome Street.
$2 Win Ticket = $41.80
$2 Tri-fecta = $1,876.40
Well…..I thought there might be an upset brewing in the Coolmore, I just didn’t foresee the “right” horses.
I do not write this blog to glamorize the gambling aspect of Horse Racing – I actually write this blog (and pester my readers to read it) for the sole purpose of entertaining and informing them in regards to the Kentucky Derby / Triple Crown excitement that begins in a very short time.
In my opinion every American should have a favorite horse.
However…..there is the Right and Wrong aspect of it – that can only be measured by people literally putting their money where their mouths are (or their thoughts are) – and as you can see by the $2 Tri-fecta investment that returned $1,876 and change – not many people saw this one coming.
As you will see Exhi made this race very simple. He broke well from the gate, was unafraid of setting an up-tempo pace in the early half mile and as they hit the final stretch we saw that no one was Waiting for Exhi ---
Too much of a strech for Waiting to Exhale?? Yeah probably.....anway Exhi proved that the remainder of these horses simply aren’t good enough, or haven’t matured enough, to go to the next level (i.e. the Kentucky Derby or Preakness).
I expect to see Exhi take a chance in the Preakness should he be invited. The distance there should be to his liking and he’ll have an advantage of being more rested than any of the contenders from the Kentucky Derby who will only have two weeks to prepare for the second jewel in the triple crown.
While I predicted surprise in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes --- I, myself was surprised when Bushwacked not only turned out to be a 5/1 choice at the start of the race, but finished in second place. Clearly Keeneland bettors knew something – that I didn’t see in Bushwacked’s previous races.
I was mildly disappointed with Heavenville’s finish, however I was stunned with Connemara’s tenth place outing - ugly.
Finally if I was going to be wrong about an upset I wanted third place finisher UptownCharlieBrown to come out on top and turn around and give the Kentucky Derby a shot. Unlike most sports there is no…..”maybe next year”….in Triple Crown racing. From what I’m reading they certainly want this horse to run in a few major stakes later this summer – so maybe we’ll see him for the last race that I’ll cover for the season, the West Virginia Derby.
Video to follow:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cy_3hHrlQAI&feature=player_embedded
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