Kentucky Derby 2025

Churchill Downs  – May 3rd, 2025
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $5,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface - Dirt

 

1 – Citizen Bull 2 – Neoequos 3 – Final Gambit 4 – Rodriguez 5 – American Promise 6 – Admire Daytona 7 – Luxor Café 8 –  Journalism 9 –  Burham Square 10 –  Grande 11 – Flying Mohawk 12 – East Avenue 13 – Publisher 14 – Tiztastic 15 – Render Judgment 16 – Coal Battle 17 – Sandman 18 – Sovereignty 19 – Chunk of Gold 20 –  Owen Almighty 21 – Baeza

The very first thing I would say about a Kentucky Derby field like this one is:

"Don’t over think it!"

That being written…..now watch me completely overthink this. 

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
wonders why no one ever says
 "Don't UNDER think things"?

#1 Citzen Bull – Your Juvenile Breeders Cup Champion and winner of 4 straight with Martin Garcia aboard, before they finished 4^th in the Santa Anita Derby draws a terrible post – and in my experience will need a TON of luck to make anything work out of the 1 hole – finishing top 4 should be considered an admirable run. Keep an eye out for him in the Preakness. 

#2 Neoequos – could look to take the early lead if he can escape – will likely get swallowed up early and hasn’t shown a late kick to threaten here – also Flavian Prat switched from this horse to #21 Baeza – that’s a cue from one of the best Jockeys in this field. 

#3 Final Gambit – At 30-1 this horse has my interest. He finished 1^st in his last outing the Jeff Ruby Stakes – and his running style is to close late which will help with this post position – he also closed strongly in his victory and he and Jockey Luan Machado have 2 Wins and a Place in his last three outings.

I once defeated Peanut Butter Whiskey
True Story!

Recent Jeff Ruby Stakes winners to win a KY Derby are Mage (2022), Rich Strike (2021)

But this is a steep climb in competition…..in January this horse was beaten by a horse named Peanutbutter Whiskey…..then again I’ve also taken a few losses to Peanutbutter Whiskey.

 #5 American Promise – for reasons I am unfamiliar with the Virginia Derby has moved from July and September to March….so this will be one the first time a Virginia Derby winner will enter the Kentucky Derby. At 30-1 this horse also has my interest – he’s been beaten in previous races by a number of horses in this race – but looks like he can handle the distance well and could be the horse to set the pace. (Sired by 2018 Triple Crown Winner Justify)

#6 Admire Daytona (JPN) – UAE Derby winner- twice beaten by #7  Luxor Café.  UAE Derby and Japanese horses have never done very well in the KY Derby – could it finally happen, sure….but I’d save your cash.

#7 Luxor Café (JPN) – Great post position, 4 straight wins in 3 Stakes Races. I don’t know what it is exactly, but these young horses from Japan and the UAE don’t tend to do well in the Kentucky Derby. This horse could absolutely finish top 5 – but I just haven’t seen a trend breaker here yet. (Sired by 2015 Triple Crown Winner American Pharoah).

#8 Journalism – The favorite at 3-1 morning odds and for good reason – winner of 4 straight / 3 of those wins with rider Umberto Rispoli including the most recent: Santa Anita Derby. He has a great post position and should be able to position himself into a perfect spot to win this race. The two concerns are he hasn’t been in very large fields before (several of these horses have) and he’s only raced in California. But a victory in the Santa Anita Derby makes him a contender.

#9 Burnham Square – Even though this horse has intriguing odds (12-1) is on the outside shoulder of the favorite – I DO NOT TRUST the Bluegrass Stakes – it will fool you like decaf coffee on a hungover morning….it may LOOK right, it may feel right….but it will not BE right! This is a good horse that has won 3 out of 6 lifetime races – Rider Brian Hernandez Jr. won the KY Derby last year – I just don’t trust the Bluegrass.

Not East Avenue
But still funny.

#11 Flying Mohawk – finished behind #3 Final Gambit in their last race. He’s going off at 30-1 this is the kind of horse with this post position who could sneak into the top 5. I just don’t think he could finish better than 3^rd in this race.

#12 East Avenue – Finished 2^nd in the Blue Grass Stakes behind #9 Burnham Square – it would not surprise me to see East Avenue be cut loose in the first half mile and lead the pack. But I would expect him to fade coming out of the final turn. If the track is muddy – keep an eye on this one – at 20-1 he could shoot to take the lead and slop his way home to the winners circle if the mud exhausts the field.

#13 Publisher – this will be his first race with rider Irad Ortiz, as Flavien Prat also decided not to board this horse either. This horse finished a strong 2^nd in the Arkansas Derby, but hasn’t been consistent and again – listen to Flavien Prat. Publisher also seems most comfortable sitting WAY in the back for most of the race and with 18 other horses in this one – I think it will be too much of a challenge for this horse.

#14 Tiztastic – 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Joel Rosario will be aboard the Louisiana Derby winner. The Louisiana Derby switched over from 1 mile and 1/8^th to 1 mile and 3/16 a few years ago which may help prepare horses for the distance of 1 mile and 1/4 . This horse looked strong coming down to the wire.

At 20-1 this horse has my interest – he’s got a great spot, looks good for the distance and the Jockey knows how to win here.

#15 Render Judgement – (sired by Blame) has finished 5^th / 2^nd / 8^th and 3^rd in his last four races. And has a new rider aboard in Julien Leparoux – I don’t see anything here -- granted I'm also still upset that Blame (the sire) beat Zenyatta 15 years ago in the Breeders Cup.

LOVED Zenyatta....but a Bobblehead Zenyatta??

#16 Coal Battle – with trainer Lonnie Briley and Jockey Juan Vargas this horse has 5 Wins / a Place and a Fourth Finish out of 7 races. Finished 3^rd behind Sandman and Publisher in the Arkansas Derby – I can see this horse finishing 3^rd at best – consider for exotic bets.

#17 Sandman – Jose Ortiz will be back aboard – and rode Sandman to victory in the Arkansas Derby. In the last 5 races Sandman has 2 Wins / A place and 2 Shows – and was beaten by Coal Battle in February. Not a lot of winning consistency here for a 6-1 horse. 

His ride In the Arkansas Derby was very solid – he’ll sit in the middle of the pack and can go wide and still pull off a win – I understand the 6-1 odds from that race….I just don’t love those odds here.

#18 Sovereignty  - Finished 2^nd in the Florida Derby to Tappan Street (due to injury couldn’t run here). Sovereignty will likely sit in the back of the pack and make a late run – He’s got a good post position and he’ll be able to melt into the pack whenever they like – but I don’t love a 5-1 horse who has to get through a wall of horses to win.

Between Sandman and Sovereignty – I like Sandman’s position and racing style more.

 #19 Chunk of Gold – 30-1 and finished a notable 2^nd behind Tiztastic in the Louisiana Derby – I like this horse quite a bit and his Jockey Jareth Loveberry has a name that sounds like he should be from a Jane Austen novel – but I think this horse will be lucky to finish top 6. Maybe consider in Exotics.

A bit of irony here – Chunk of Gold was purchased for $2,500 October 2023
Baeza and Sandman were purchased for $1,200,000 each.

I say...Jareth Loveberry at your service m'lady!

#20 Owen Almighty – finished a disappointing 6^th in the Blue Grass Stakes – but has 3 Wins and 2 Places in 7 lifetime races. His usual Jockey Ortiz will be riding #17 Sandman

#21 Baeza – ridden by 2019 Kentucky Derby winner Flavien Prat finished 2^nd behind Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. With Prat aboard I like the 12-1 odds on this horse – however Prat has never ridden this horse in a race!

 As I see the race – the gates will fly open and #1 Citizen Bull and #2 Neoequos will get swallowed up quickly by the pack – Citizen Bull may show up late, but I doubt it.

#3 Final Gambit will hit the brakes and wait until the last turn to make a move – if he finds the right hole, could be an upset!

If #5 American Promise gets a clean break and can take the rail early – he’s got a shot to dictate his own race. I don’t trust this horse to hold the lead and not burn out – my guess is he fades late OR he gets boxed in going into the first turn – same could be said for #20 East Avenue.

#8 Journalism will position himself mid-pack and when they hit the final turn will look to make his move. If they give this horse open track in front of him – he’ll likely be in the Winner’s Circle.

#9 Burnham Square **Should stalk Journalism and dictate how the middle of the pack will run – but my guess is this horse will come out flustered and/or flat like many Bluegrass Stakes winners before him.

#14 Tiztastic needs some luck – he’ll need to find a spot middle of the pack inside – hope that he doesn’t go too far wide in the first turn or try to dictate the lead. If this horse is patient and finds a hole late he could finish top 3.

#17 Sandman & #18 Sovereignty  - will battle for position – I’m afraid Sandman will want the top of the pack early and will go wide – I think he fades late. I like Sovereignty to be more patient and finish strong in the end.

#21 Baeza – Prat is one of the best in the business (if not THE best) – but first time out with this horse??

Closing Speed likes: Journalism / Tiztastic / Final Gambit and Sandman

If I’m betting $20 to $24 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box: 3, 8, 14, 17 = $24

$1 Exacta Box : 3/8/14/17/21 w 3/8/14/17/21 = $20

Longshots:

$4 Win/Place – #14 = $8
$4 Win/ Place - #5 - $8
$4 Win/Place - $3 = $8

Belmont Stakes - 2024

 SARATOGA
RACE 12 - 6:41 PM
Belmont S. (Grade I)
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One and one 1/4 Miles
Surface – Dirt

1 – Seize the Grey
2 – Resilience                           
3 – Mystik Dan
4 – The Wine Steward                                   
5 – Antiquarian   
6 – Dornoch                           
7 – Protective
8 – Honor Marie
9 – Sierra Leone
10 – Mindframe

For the few of us that will follow the Belmont Stakes without a Triple Crown on the line – the 2024 Belmont offers a few unique twists.

Let's set out on Wednesday for a Picnic
at Jerome Park for Saturday's Belmont Stakes
I believe they've begun calling this
area the Bronx.

 

First it’s at Saratoga Race Track (instead of at Belmont) – Saratoga marks the Fourth Race Track that the Belmont Stakes have been held at since the first one in 1867 – however all of the Belmont Stakes since 1905 have been at Belmont Park, until 2024.

Traditionally the Belmont Stakes is 1 ½ miles --- this year it will be shortened to the same distance as the Kentucky Derby 1 ¼ miles.

The next bit of interest is that in recent years, it’s not often you have separate winners in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and both decide to continue racing in the Belmont.

 Let’s begin with the Preakness Winner - #1 Seize the Grey. Seize the Grey may have caught an early break in the Preakness as the horse to his immediate right (Just Steel) angled to the right coming out of the gate and allowed Seize the Grey ample space to maneuver early.

Seize the Grey took the early lead and never relinquished it. His trip was impressive especially considering it was a muddy track and he remained unfazed. Rider Jaime Torres is back aboard and together they’ve produced back to back trips to the Winner’s Circle.

Seize the Grey is a surprising 8-1 (the fourth favorite) in this race. Seize the Grey has raced twice at Saratoga (2023) and has a Win and a Show at this track. I appreciate that this horse has an unfortunate starting spot and may not be a fan of the distance --- but he’s shown that he likes this track….I wouldn’t count him out.

#2 Resilience – The Wood Memorial winner returns to New York – however his most recent outing was his 6^th place finish in the Kentucky Derby.  Junior Alvarado was his jockey in the KY Derby and returns for the Belmont. 

10-1 odds make Resilience an interesting horse to add to Trifecta or even an Exacta – he’ll have relatively fresh legs and could be a threat to break the top 3 in this field.

Also the #18th spot in the Kentucky Derby may have really worked against this horse - he likes being up front early and wasn't able to position himself there in the KY Derby. Could be a much different horse if he can take the lead early.

#3 Mystik Dan – Winner of the KY Derby and Second place finisher in the Preakness is being listed as the third favorite at 5-1 odds. In his last 4 races – Mystik Dan has two wins, a place and a show.

He and Seize the Grey will be the only two horses who ran twice in May – and considering that this is likely to be the longest races they’ll ever run in their lifetime, there’s some concern for fatigue.

Other than that – this horse has shown he knows how to finish in the money – very risky to drop him from any Exacta or Trifecta bets.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
prefers NOT to be associated
with the painful puns and
word play of this blog

 

 

#4 The Wine Steward – *** The first foal this Colt Sires – I would have to name Chardoneigh…how about Zinfoaldel? Rosehay all Day? Run for Rose’s?.....okay, I promise I’m done.

The New York Bred - The Wine Steward won his first 3 races, and placed in his next 3…..finishing immediately behind #5 Antiquarian in the Peter Pan Stakes on May 11^th. His last three rides were with Luis Saez who will be riding #6 Dornoch.

I love the horse’s name – and I like his post position – but the step up in competition I believe will keep this Wine Steward in the cellar…..and not the one with the good wine!

#5 Antiquarian – Fresh from a Peter Pan Stakes victory – this horse offers 2 wins and a place in 4 lifetime races – and the return of John Velazquez on board.

In March this horse finished 6^th in the Louisiana Derby (Behind #8 Honor Marie) and I don’t see anything about this horse that may indicate he’s a solid choice for the distance or against this competition.

#6 Dornoch – Finished 5^th against Sierra Leone in the Bluegrass Stakes and 10^th in the Kentucky Derby.  Luis Saez has been his Jockey 6 out of 7 lifetime starts.

** Defeated Sierra Leone back in December – but hasn’t been able to meet the challenge since then.

#7 Protective – Finished 3^rd behind Antiquarian and The Wine Steward in the Peter Pan Stakes and 3^rd behind Resilience in the Wood Memorial.

This will be Tyler Gaffalione’s first trip with this horse. He’s the 20-1 longshot for these reasons – I think he should be closer to 30-1 or even 50-1….however Gaffalione has been the Jockey for the favorite #9 Sierra Leone for his last three races…..there is some intrigue here.

#8 Honor Marie – Has Florent Geroux on board for the first time – finished 8^th in the Kentucky Derby after getting off to a rough start.

This horse has some late closing ability – There’s a slight chance this horse will take to this distance and finish in a 3^rd spot….but I’m not a buyer at 12-1…..(maybe 30-1).

#9 Sierra Leone – is the 9/5 favorite and the reason I have to now consider the Blue Grass Stakes worth considering.

Birds-eye Photo Finish in the
2024 Kentucky Derby

In 5 lifetime races this horse has 3 Wins and 2 Places – most recently finishing 2^nd behind Mystik Dan in the Kentucky Derby.

The “likely” reason this horse is the favorite is that – this horse closes late and his run in the Kentucky Derby gave some evidence that he’ll have the distance in him.

Also unlike the Derby he won’t have to go 10 wide in the final turn.

However – this will be Flavien Prat’s first race with this horse – Prat is one of the best (if not currently THE best) Jockey in the game….but he’s never won a Belmont Stakes.

The morning line believes this horse will benefit from having fewer horses to weave through coming out of the final turn and…..the morning line also believes that skipping the Preakness will give this horse the fresher legs for this race….and I see where the morning line is coming from – but 9/5 on a horse for “potential” and a new Jockey…… with all things considered I don’t love these odds.

#10 Mindframe – Speaking of Great Jockeys – Irad Ortiz Jr, has won two recent Belmont Stakes  (2022 / 2016) and in Mindframe’s 2 Lifetime races has two victories.

Ortiz has also been a top rider here at Saratoga for the last two years.

Mindframe has shown some remarkable potential…..but this will be his first opportunity to meet Grade 1 stakes winners.

I appreciate he’s got one of the best Jockeys in the nation on board – and I appreciate that this horse has won his last two races by 13 and 7 lengths….and he has fresher legs having not raced since May 4^th.

But 7/2 odds…..better than a Kentucky Derby Winner AND Preakness Winner (who beat the Kentucky Derby Winner)?

If you've never seen a horse "glide" before - watch Mindframe in his first race.

Here's how I see the race - IF Seize the Grey is able to break free from the 1 spot and own the rail for the entire race I think he could very well win this race......but he'll need the best release out of the gate he's ever had.

IF Resilience grabs the early lead and the rail - I think he finishes top 3 - but the question is, which one of these two horses will get the early jump?

Mystik Dan is also in an excellent spot to own the inside for the shorter trip -- and no matter how it shakes out for the first three - I expect Mindframe to stalk the leaders mid-pack, and for Sierra Leone to keep an eye on Mindframe.

I think Mystik Dan will come out of the final turn with the lead and eventually lose ground to Sierra Leone and then we'll see if Mindframe is as dominate as people believe or if Seize the Grey and Resilience can take one of the top spots.

Closing Speed likes: Sierra Leone / Mystik Dan / Resilience.

For the record I'm rooting for Seize the Grey - I'm a big fan of what MyRaceHorse is trying to accomplish.....and also I just like the horse - I think he and Mystik Dan are very close in talent and if they switched post positions I'd likely switch their spots.

From a betting perspective - rarely do I like Superfectas....but:

Superfecta Box: 1/2/3/9/10 -- (30 cents will cost a total of $36).

Trifecta Box: 1/2/3/9/10 - (50 cents will cost a total of $30)

Seize the Grey 6/1 odds or higher - I'd put $5 / $10 to win
Resilience 10/1 odds or higher - $5 Win or Place
Mystik Dan 6/1 odds or higher - $5 / $10 to win
Mindframe 10/1 odds or higher - $5 / $10 to win

2024 Preakness Stakes

Pimlico Race Track..
RACE 13 – 7:01 PM
Preakness S. (Grade I)
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One And 3/16ths  Mile
Surface – Dirt

1 – Mugatu
2 – Uncle Heavy                                                              
3 –Catching Freedom
4 – Muth                            
5 – Mystik Dan
6 – Seize the Grey                         
7 – Just Steel
8 – Tuscan Gold
9 - Imagination

I have to imagine that most people who follow horse racing believe the best three year old horses in the nation will be absent from The Preakness.

Fierceness, who faded in the Kentucky Derby – was the Florida Derby and Juvenile Champion.

Sierra Leone who missed by a nostril in the Kentucky Derby is out – although I’m hoping for a Belmont Stakes run – it looks like it would be a great distance for this horse.

And Arkansas Derby winner #4 Muth scratched.

Leaving us with a field of 8….and very little competition for Kentucky Derby Winner #5 Mystik Dan.

Let’s begin with #1 Mugatu – who’s last  victory was with Joe Bravo aboard in November 2023. He has two 3^rd place showings in his last 5 races…..and his best races are at One Mile….the extra 3/16ths are likely going to be too much for this horse. Outside of Bravo being back, not much to believe in here.

#2 Uncle Heavy – (Which sadly is NOT some kind of mash-up of Uncle Buck and the Sopranos) 

You woke up this morning...
Got a blue moon in your eyes

 – he switches to Irad Ortiz for his first new jockey in 5 Lifetime races – and he does have 3 wins in 5 attempts. He last raced  April 6^th, finishing 5^th against lack luster talent, but he may have some fresher legs coming into this race. He hasn’t raced against much talent….but at 20-1, in the rain, he may be worth a thought in this one…..but only if the odds are good!

 #4 Catching Freedom – The Louisiana Derby winner  finished 4^th behind Mystik Dan in the Kentucky Derby….and is the next closest finisher to participate in both races. His Jockey Flavien Prat is one of the best in the business and they were gaining some ground in the final furlongs at Twin Spires. He’s the second favorite and could be the one to steal a victory from Mystik Dan.

#5 Mystik Dan – Kenneth McPeek has been a GREAT Trainer this year and I’m certainly happy that he’s found major success and Brian Hernandez returns as Mystik Dan's rider – having ridden this horse 6 of his 7 races and his last three straight.

Mystik Dan had the perfect ride in the Kentucky Derby….you really can’t write it up better that that. Coming out of the three hole this horse found enough space to take the rail early and wait for the final turn to open up. Coming out of the turn Mystik Dan stuck to the rail and charged up the final furlongs with nothing in front of him -- He received JUST the luck he needed as Fierceness faded, and Sierra Leone didn’t have enough time to catch up.

 
Part of the problem of having confidence in this horse is the “luck” part.  

In March he finished 3^rd behind Muth and #7 Just Steel.

In Februrary he beat Just Steel in a Mile 1/16^th.

In January he finished 5^th behind Catching Freedom and Just Steel.

In the Kentucky Derby this horse proved that he could win at this distance and had the discipline and nerve to take the rail and wait for his moment…….OR (like his other races) is this horse about to regress?

I’m not sure he should be sitting at 5/2 odds.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
enjoys a positive affirmation
with a play on words!
Seize the Grey indeed!

#6 Seize the Grey – Rider Jaime Torres returns after a successful stakes race on Kentucky Derby Day. Out of 9 races this horse has 3 Wins and 3 Shows – finished a very disappointing 7^th in Keeneland against Sierra Leone and Just a Touch. I wish this horse had fresher legs…as he also raced just two weeks ago – but I think 15-1 are good odds for this horse. Don’t know that he’s got a win in him here, but like his chance to make the top 3.

#7 Just Steel – This horse has had 12 Lifetime races and earned 2 Wins, 4 Places, 1 Show…..and also finished 17^th in the Kentucky Derby.  Just Steel offered up the early speed in the last race and will likely be at the top to begin this race as well. Again, not fresh legs here and really faded in his last race….the intriguing part to me is that in his last 5 races Just Steel has finished 2^nd in three of those races and out of the money in the other two.

This horse finished immediately behind Muth in March (but ahead of Mystik Dan), behind Mystik Dan in February, and behind Catching Freedom in January.

#8 Tuscan Gold – Only three lifetime races and two in 2024 – finished 3^rd in March behind Catching Freedom and comes in with very fresh legs and Tyler Gaffailione on board.  A little bit of an unknown factor here. Watch his odds.

#9 Imagination – Out of 6 Lifetime races this horse has 2 Wins and 4 Places. After winning the San Felipe in Santa Anita, Imagination finished 2^nd in the Santa Anita Derby. This is another horse with Fresh legs.

I don’t think Mugatu or Uncle Heavy have much to offer in this race – although if it’s a sloppy track it could be a weird race day…..but still I’m knocking these two out of contention.

I think Catching Freedom with Flavien Prat are going to be able to position themselves well with Mystik Dan……Mystik I believe will be looking to grab the inside again....we'll see if Catching Freedom blocks him from the rail.

It will be interesting if Just Steel decides to just run with Mystik Dan and not push the tempo – that being said I don’t love the change in Jockey for Just Steel – Rosario has had success with this horse, but it’s been more than a year.

Seize the Grey will likely also run towards the front of the pack – there’s a chance Seize the Grey and Just Steel fade due to a fast early speed…..and both of these horses have only had two weeks off.

Tuscan Gold is a mystery ---- I’d like better odds here.

Imagination may need the lead in this race and coming out of the 9^th spot in Mud isn’t selling me – BUT this horse is ONLY real contender that is coming in fresh.

My big questions
What the hell is Tuscan Gold going to do?
Will Seize the Grey ,  Just Steel and Imagination find themselves in an early speed battle and fade?
And will Mystik Dan be able to hold off a late charging Catching Freedom?

I’m rooting for Mystik Dan – but,

How many times did I mention Fresh Legs?
I'm like a ZZ Top Special Dance Mix!

Closing Speed likes:   

Catching Freedom, Mystik Dan, Tuscan Gold

*** If there's lots of SLOP- give me Imagination, Mystik Dan and Catching Freedom

$1 Box Trifecta – 3,5,7.9 = $24

$10 - #6 Seize the Grey to Win
$10 - #7 Just Steel to Win

 

Kentucky Derby 2024

Churchill Downs  – May  4th, 2024
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $5,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface - Dirt

 

1 – Dornoch 2 – Sierra Leone 3 – Mystik Dan 4 – Catching Freedom 5 – Catalytic 6 – Just Steel 7 – Honor Marie 8 –  Just a Touch 9 –  Encino 10 –  TO Password

11 – Forever Young 12 – Track Phantom 13 – West Saratoga 14 – Endlessly 15 – Domestic Product 16 – Grand Mo The First 17 – Fierceness 18 – Stronghold 19 – Resilience 20 –  Society Man 21 – Epic Ride 22 – Mugatu

I’ll begin with the Morning Line Favorite #17 Fierceness (5/2) – He is the Breeders Cup Juvenile Champion and Winner of the Florida Derby.

His Trainer Todd Pletcher has won Two Kentucky Derbies – His Jockey John Velazquez has won Three Kentucky Derbies – they won one of those Derbies together in 2017 with Always Dreaming (who was also a Florida Derby Winner).

Fierceness has a fantastic post position in this race.  Not to take anything away from this horse and this team…..but Bob Baffert and his horses also won’t be competing at the Kentucky Derby – so the competition is diminished. 

It’s absolutely his Derby to lose – the only question is – how will he handle the distance and could he come out flat – which is the same issue for all of the horses.

Also racing: #5 Catalytic, #16 Grand Mo The First

#2 Sierra Leone is the second current favorite (3-1) and is coming off of two straight trips to the Winners Circle at the Blue Grass Stakes and Risen Star Stakes. 

His Trainer Chad Brown has never won a KY Derby – but is one of the best in the business – Tyler Gaffalione also has never won a KY Derby – but is one of the most experienced Riders at Churchill Downs. 

One item of note Tyler Gaffalione won the Tampa Bay Derby with #15 Domestic Product – and obviously choose to continue with Sierra Leone. 

I don’t trust Blue Grass Stakes winners…..they normally don’t perform well in the KY Derby. 

I don’t like Sierra Leone’s Post Position – however because this horse naturally likes to run from deep in the back of the pack, I don’t think this Post Position hurts his chances to win as much as it would many of the other horses. 

I can see this horse having to give up a LOT of ground early….perhaps WAY to much for a horse like Fierceness, and not being able to break through the heavy traffic  coming out of the second turn. 

If this horse has to go 8 or 10 wide to make a late move – I don’t believe he’ll have the time to catch up for a win. 

I don’t like the odds for this horse – as I believe he is going to absolutely depend on a gap opening up late (but not TOO late) and giving him a shot to shoot the gap and run inside and steal a win. 

Lots of negatives here – could get pinned to the rail and swallowed up by the traffic early and never given a shot to break out…..if he can break away he’s very dangerous….but the other 19 Jockey’s know that as well.

Also Racing: #8 Just A Touch, #21 Epic Ride

Bonus Points if you knew this album came
out in 1996!

#4 Catching Freedom is the next favorite (8/1) and current Louisiana Derby champion. 

He is trained by Brad Cox who is dominating at Churchill Downs and has won 2 Kentucky Derbies previously. His KY Derby victory in 2019 was with Flavien Prat aboard and so far has been Prat’s only KY Derby win. Cox and Prat reunite here with Catching Freedom. 

Not the best Post Position – as he may have trouble with traffic early AND  the Louisiana Derby hasn’t produced a Kentucky Derby Winner since 1996.....some might say this horse is just a Wannabe!!

Catching Freedom finished 3^rd behind Sierra Leone and #12 Track Phantom in the Risen Star Stakes….I don’t love the odds for this horse. 

Below are the horses I believe COULD SHOCK / UPSET:

#9 Just A Touch (10/1) – is also a Brad Cox Trained horse and is ridden by Florent Geroux who is ON FIRE at Churchill right now…..winning at about 31% -- these two won a KY Derby (Geroux’s only) in 2021.

Just A Touch was sired by Justify who is not only the only KY Derby winning Sire – but also the only Triple Crown winner as a Sire.

Has a great Post Position – HOWEVER this horse hasn’t had a victory since January – finished 2^nd in the Gotham and 2^nd against Sierra Leone at Blue Grass.

Justify had a lot of Flash in the Splash

#6 Just Steel (20/1) – also sired by Justify – with legend D Wayne Lucas as his trainer and Keith Asmussen as his rider.

The good news about this horse is that he’s seasoned – having 11 races in his young career – the bad news is he only has 2 wins. That last victory was at Churchill Downs in November.

 Excellent Post Position – he finished 2^nd in the Arkansas Derby…..maybe gets a break and gives us an upset?

 

#12 Track Phantom (20-1) – Ridden by Joel Rosario who had a KY Derby win in 2013 – and trained by Steven Asmussen.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
still can't believe
Natalie Portman and
Jar Jar Binks shared a screen!

 #9 Just A Touch and #12 Track Phantom could be the “early” speed in this race. 

Track Phantom had 3 straight wins at 1 1/16^th mile……but when the distance increased he hasn’t had the endurance to finish strong……falling to 2^nd place against Sierra Leone in the Risen Star and 4^th against Catching Freedom and Honor Marie. 

But on May the Fourth…..you have to ask if he could be a Phantom Menance?!?!

#18 Stronghold (20/1)– Winner of the Santa Anita Derby and Sunland Derby winner. 

I have been told I have a West Coast bias – but why is this horse going off at 20/1?? 

I recognize that his Trainer Philip D’Amato and Jockey Antonio Fresu don’t have a KY Derby victory on their resume….but this horse is right next to the favorite and has enough speed to stay towards the top of the pack. 

** If Fierceness comes out flat or fades…..I like this horse a LOT better than 8/1 Catching Freedom. 

Won’t be surprised if this horse comes in closer to 8/1 or 6/1 at the bell…..if you can get any better than 10/1 odds here – this could be a very good price.

#19 Resilience (20/1) – John R Velazquez rode this horse to victory in the Wood Memorial – but chose to stick with Fierceness for the KY Derby.

Junior Alvarado will be aboard – and Resilience will also ride closer to the top of the pack. 

Bill Mott is his trainer and won a KY Derby in 2019. 

Here’s the three scenrios I see happening – 

1^st Scenario

#17 Fierceness glides into position as they approach the first turn – he keeps pace or stalks the early leaders – he takes over after the first turn – he muscles out of the second turn and glides to victory. Sierra Leone “Maybe” makes a desperate attempt for 2^nd place or a Longshot holds him off because he hit traffic late.

2^nd Scenario

#2 Sierra Leone  - “manages” the first few steps of the race without getting swallowed up in traffic. Falls VERY far behind a hot pace – begins making his creep going into the second turn – as they swing out of the second turn - Tyler Gaffalione sees the perfect hole, gives Sierra Leone the signal and they shoot through a hole near the rail and charge past the fading early leaders including a wobbly Fierceness.

I think this horse will HAVE to have an inside gap – I’ve seen much better horses fail to go 8 to 12 wide to win the KY Derby. 

Granted if Scenario 2 happens  this writer than has to “own” that the Blue Grass Stakes have something to offer. 

3^rd Scenario

If you’re betting on this race and want to win big….this is YOUR Scenario.

Fierceness comes out flat…..or gets caught in an early speed trap and is absolutely gassed with 2 or 3 furlongs to go…..they have misjudged the pace or the distance and he’s fading.

Meanwhile Sierra Leone struggled in traffic early – has never found a space to run freely and is trapped behind traffic coming out of the final turn…..He’s not going to make it!

Both of these can happen – which would leave us with a relatively BIG UPSET as the only other option.

And that’s when I think having some money on #6 Just Steel,  #9 Just A Touch, #12 Track Phantom, #18 Stronghold, or #19 Resilience is the way to go.

Out of those 5 – I like Just a Touch and Stronghold the most.

Closing Speed likes: Fierceness, Just A Touch and Stronghold

If I’m betting $20 to $24 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box (with favorites): 2, 9, 17, 18 = $24

$1 Exacta Box : 2,17 w  6, 9, 12, 18, 19  = $10

Longshots:

$5 Win/Place – #9 = $10
$5 Win/ Place - #18 - $10

Good Luck and.....May the Fourth be with you!

Belmont Stakes 2023

Belmont Park
RACE 12 - 7:02 PM
Belmont S. (Grade I)
Purse - $1,500,000
Distance - One And one ½ Miles
Surface – Dirt

1 – Tapit Shoes
2 – Tapit Trice                           
3 – Arcangelo
4 – National Treasure                                   
5 – Il Miracolo   
6 – Forte                           
7 – Hit Show
8 – Angel Of Empire
9 – Red Route One

Let’s begin with the Preakness Winner #4 National Treasure – who went stride for stride with Blazing Sevens and squeaked out a HUGE win. 

I thought both of those horses would fade and that Mage and Red Route One would give us an electric late charge….but that was not the case. 

If you missed it – here is the race:

There are a couple of interesting storylines with the 155^th Belmont Stakes – the most important is the hazardous air quality in New York from the wildfires in Canada. 

Here’s hoping this difficult time ends soon for our friends in New York. 

Air Quality will definitely have an effect on the Training, Riding and Racing before the Belmont - that is IF it's still run this Saturday.

The next biggest story is the hopeful return of, the current 5-2 favorite, #6 Forte. I thought there was a very good chance this horse could be a Triple Crown contender before he was scratched before the Kentucky Derby. 

I still believe he’s easily the best 3 year old running this year – and only two horses in the field have ever won at Belmont – and he’s one of them! 

However the distance does concern me, especially because we’ve never seen this horse run more than a mile and 1/8^th. 

With a unique longer distance after a two and half month lay-off and possible small injury…..this horse may be a little rusty for this race. 

I guess what I’m saying is…when he’s healthy and ready – he’s definitely the favorite – are we sure he’s completely healthy and ready??

#1 Tapit Shores – hasn’t produced a victory since December 2022 – he finished 2^nd behind #9 Red Route One in late April. This horse has like a 12 Owner Partnership….maybe he’s just entered so that the owners can party at Belmont…….I’d believe it.

#2 Tapit Trice – Finished a disappointing 7^th in the Kentucky Derby – before then he had 4 straight wins with Luis Saez on board – and Saez will be on board for the Belmont. This horse is a contender in this race – but I’m not a huge fan of him winning. Currently he’s the second favorite at 3-1 and I don’t think he should be. I don’t think he can close the deal at a Mile and a half. 

And yes Tapit Shores and Tapit Trice are half-brothers.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
thinks it would be awkward
to meet your half brother for
the first time in the Starters Gate
of a big race.

#3 Arcangelo – I think this horse may be flying under the radar a little – he’s got 2 straight victories with Castellano coming into this race and continues to improve as they add distance. 

And his last victory was here at Belmont! 

He hasn’t seen this kind of talent yet – so it could be overwhelming, but keep this horse in mind to take a top 3 spot at the end of the race – if you’re looking for a “value bet” he could be the one to add to your exotics. 

#4 National Treasure – the only horse running in the Belmont with a Triple Crown victory is going off as the 4^th Favorite……talk about no respect....but then again, the FILM is also kind of disrespected!!

This image is similar to me reviewing 
where I went WRONG in the Preakness.

I thought this horse would do a HARD FADE in the Preakness and I was wrong – out of 6 lifetime races he’s only finished out of the money once.

Jockey John Velazquez will be on board again – and I think National Treasure has more of a chance than people are giving him credit for.

 #5 Il Miracolo – Is the Colpo Lungo in this race at 30-1. He recently scored an Allowance Race victory but out of 6 Stakes races….he’s never finished better than 5^th.  If you were to make me your Race Day Consigliere I would tell you to “Stai lontano…Capiche??

#7 Hit Show – When you consider how difficult it is to climb out of the #1 spot in the Kentucky Derby – his 5^th place finish is impressive. This horse has 3 Wins and 1 Place in 6 races. He has Manuel Franco has his rider who has been with him during the last three races.

I just don’t see this horse improving with distance.

#8 Angel of Empire – Finished 3^rd behind Mage and Two Phil’s in the Kentucky Derby – and if Flavien Prat could have made the move around the edge when he wanted they might have won the Kentucky Derby.

I like Angel of Empire with distance and I believe Angel of Empire should be the 2^nd favorite in this race – currently at 7-2 odds he’s the third favorite.

Angel of Empire had 2 victories and a second place in three Stakes races leading up to the Kentucky Derby. They have something to prove here.

#9 Red Route One – finished 4^th in the Preakness. I really thought this horse was ready to make an upset in the Preakness, but as they headed for home he didn’t offer much.

With a longer distance – and an improved field, I don’t like his chances.

How I see the 2023 Belmont –

I think Il Miracolo will set the pace along with National Treasure – Tapit Shoes may also join the early runners.

In the past there has been an effective strategy in the Belmont Stakes of taking an early lead and then just hoping to outlast the rest of the pack….the daunting distance can cause many horses to just give out before they even get close to the leader.

For National Treasure I think this strategy is worth considering – after all it worked in the Preakness.

If Forte is game, you can expect him to stalk the lead(s) but maintaining a smart pace. Angel of Empire will likely be stalking Forte – the idea may be that when Forte commits to the stretch run Flavien Prat will ask Angel of Empire to commit as well.

It will be interesting to me to see if they want to position Angel of Empire in front of Forte or immediately behind him.

The question will be where will Tapit Thrice and Arcangelo run – I imagine they will have the same strategy as Angel of Empire – in keeping close to Forte.

As we head for the LONG WOBBLY stretch home –

I think National Treasure will have a few lengths on most of the pack and clear ground in front of him.

I believe Forte, Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice and Arcangelo will make a solid bid at the lead.

I think Angel of Empire steals one from Forte at the wire…..National Treasure hanging on to 3rd with Arcangelo and Tapit Trice looking to take 4th.

Closing Speed likes:  Angel of Empire, Forte, National Treasure

If I’m betting $16 to $34 – this is what I like:

$10 Win - #4

$1 Box Exacta – 4,6,8 = $6

$1 Box Trifecta – 3,4,6,8 = $24