Belmont Stakes - 2024

 SARATOGA
RACE 12 - 6:41 PM
Belmont S. (Grade I)
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One and one 1/4 Miles
Surface – Dirt

1 – Seize the Grey
2 – Resilience                           
3 – Mystik Dan
4 – The Wine Steward                                   
5 – Antiquarian   
6 – Dornoch                           
7 – Protective
8 – Honor Marie
9 – Sierra Leone
10 – Mindframe

For the few of us that will follow the Belmont Stakes without a Triple Crown on the line – the 2024 Belmont offers a few unique twists.

Let's set out on Wednesday for a Picnic
at Jerome Park for Saturday's Belmont Stakes
I believe they've begun calling this
area the Bronx.

 

First it’s at Saratoga Race Track (instead of at Belmont) – Saratoga marks the Fourth Race Track that the Belmont Stakes have been held at since the first one in 1867 – however all of the Belmont Stakes since 1905 have been at Belmont Park, until 2024.

Traditionally the Belmont Stakes is 1 ½ miles --- this year it will be shortened to the same distance as the Kentucky Derby 1 ¼ miles.

The next bit of interest is that in recent years, it’s not often you have separate winners in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and both decide to continue racing in the Belmont.

 Let’s begin with the Preakness Winner - #1 Seize the Grey. Seize the Grey may have caught an early break in the Preakness as the horse to his immediate right (Just Steel) angled to the right coming out of the gate and allowed Seize the Grey ample space to maneuver early.

Seize the Grey took the early lead and never relinquished it. His trip was impressive especially considering it was a muddy track and he remained unfazed. Rider Jaime Torres is back aboard and together they’ve produced back to back trips to the Winner’s Circle.

Seize the Grey is a surprising 8-1 (the fourth favorite) in this race. Seize the Grey has raced twice at Saratoga (2023) and has a Win and a Show at this track. I appreciate that this horse has an unfortunate starting spot and may not be a fan of the distance --- but he’s shown that he likes this track….I wouldn’t count him out.

#2 Resilience – The Wood Memorial winner returns to New York – however his most recent outing was his 6^th place finish in the Kentucky Derby.  Junior Alvarado was his jockey in the KY Derby and returns for the Belmont. 

10-1 odds make Resilience an interesting horse to add to Trifecta or even an Exacta – he’ll have relatively fresh legs and could be a threat to break the top 3 in this field.

Also the #18th spot in the Kentucky Derby may have really worked against this horse - he likes being up front early and wasn't able to position himself there in the KY Derby. Could be a much different horse if he can take the lead early.

#3 Mystik Dan – Winner of the KY Derby and Second place finisher in the Preakness is being listed as the third favorite at 5-1 odds. In his last 4 races – Mystik Dan has two wins, a place and a show.

He and Seize the Grey will be the only two horses who ran twice in May – and considering that this is likely to be the longest races they’ll ever run in their lifetime, there’s some concern for fatigue.

Other than that – this horse has shown he knows how to finish in the money – very risky to drop him from any Exacta or Trifecta bets.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
prefers NOT to be associated
with the painful puns and
word play of this blog

 

 

#4 The Wine Steward – *** The first foal this Colt Sires – I would have to name Chardoneigh…how about Zinfoaldel? Rosehay all Day? Run for Rose’s?.....okay, I promise I’m done.

The New York Bred - The Wine Steward won his first 3 races, and placed in his next 3…..finishing immediately behind #5 Antiquarian in the Peter Pan Stakes on May 11^th. His last three rides were with Luis Saez who will be riding #6 Dornoch.

I love the horse’s name – and I like his post position – but the step up in competition I believe will keep this Wine Steward in the cellar…..and not the one with the good wine!

#5 Antiquarian – Fresh from a Peter Pan Stakes victory – this horse offers 2 wins and a place in 4 lifetime races – and the return of John Velazquez on board.

In March this horse finished 6^th in the Louisiana Derby (Behind #8 Honor Marie) and I don’t see anything about this horse that may indicate he’s a solid choice for the distance or against this competition.

#6 Dornoch – Finished 5^th against Sierra Leone in the Bluegrass Stakes and 10^th in the Kentucky Derby.  Luis Saez has been his Jockey 6 out of 7 lifetime starts.

** Defeated Sierra Leone back in December – but hasn’t been able to meet the challenge since then.

#7 Protective – Finished 3^rd behind Antiquarian and The Wine Steward in the Peter Pan Stakes and 3^rd behind Resilience in the Wood Memorial.

This will be Tyler Gaffalione’s first trip with this horse. He’s the 20-1 longshot for these reasons – I think he should be closer to 30-1 or even 50-1….however Gaffalione has been the Jockey for the favorite #9 Sierra Leone for his last three races…..there is some intrigue here.

#8 Honor Marie – Has Florent Geroux on board for the first time – finished 8^th in the Kentucky Derby after getting off to a rough start.

This horse has some late closing ability – There’s a slight chance this horse will take to this distance and finish in a 3^rd spot….but I’m not a buyer at 12-1…..(maybe 30-1).

#9 Sierra Leone – is the 9/5 favorite and the reason I have to now consider the Blue Grass Stakes worth considering.

Birds-eye Photo Finish in the
2024 Kentucky Derby

In 5 lifetime races this horse has 3 Wins and 2 Places – most recently finishing 2^nd behind Mystik Dan in the Kentucky Derby.

The “likely” reason this horse is the favorite is that – this horse closes late and his run in the Kentucky Derby gave some evidence that he’ll have the distance in him.

Also unlike the Derby he won’t have to go 10 wide in the final turn.

However – this will be Flavien Prat’s first race with this horse – Prat is one of the best (if not currently THE best) Jockey in the game….but he’s never won a Belmont Stakes.

The morning line believes this horse will benefit from having fewer horses to weave through coming out of the final turn and…..the morning line also believes that skipping the Preakness will give this horse the fresher legs for this race….and I see where the morning line is coming from – but 9/5 on a horse for “potential” and a new Jockey…… with all things considered I don’t love these odds.

#10 Mindframe – Speaking of Great Jockeys – Irad Ortiz Jr, has won two recent Belmont Stakes  (2022 / 2016) and in Mindframe’s 2 Lifetime races has two victories.

Ortiz has also been a top rider here at Saratoga for the last two years.

Mindframe has shown some remarkable potential…..but this will be his first opportunity to meet Grade 1 stakes winners.

I appreciate he’s got one of the best Jockeys in the nation on board – and I appreciate that this horse has won his last two races by 13 and 7 lengths….and he has fresher legs having not raced since May 4^th.

But 7/2 odds…..better than a Kentucky Derby Winner AND Preakness Winner (who beat the Kentucky Derby Winner)?

If you've never seen a horse "glide" before - watch Mindframe in his first race.

Here's how I see the race - IF Seize the Grey is able to break free from the 1 spot and own the rail for the entire race I think he could very well win this race......but he'll need the best release out of the gate he's ever had.

IF Resilience grabs the early lead and the rail - I think he finishes top 3 - but the question is, which one of these two horses will get the early jump?

Mystik Dan is also in an excellent spot to own the inside for the shorter trip -- and no matter how it shakes out for the first three - I expect Mindframe to stalk the leaders mid-pack, and for Sierra Leone to keep an eye on Mindframe.

I think Mystik Dan will come out of the final turn with the lead and eventually lose ground to Sierra Leone and then we'll see if Mindframe is as dominate as people believe or if Seize the Grey and Resilience can take one of the top spots.

Closing Speed likes: Sierra Leone / Mystik Dan / Resilience.

For the record I'm rooting for Seize the Grey - I'm a big fan of what MyRaceHorse is trying to accomplish.....and also I just like the horse - I think he and Mystik Dan are very close in talent and if they switched post positions I'd likely switch their spots.

From a betting perspective - rarely do I like Superfectas....but:

Superfecta Box: 1/2/3/9/10 -- (30 cents will cost a total of $36).

Trifecta Box: 1/2/3/9/10 - (50 cents will cost a total of $30)

Seize the Grey 6/1 odds or higher - I'd put $5 / $10 to win
Resilience 10/1 odds or higher - $5 Win or Place
Mystik Dan 6/1 odds or higher - $5 / $10 to win
Mindframe 10/1 odds or higher - $5 / $10 to win

2024 Preakness Stakes

Pimlico Race Track..
RACE 13 – 7:01 PM
Preakness S. (Grade I)
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One And 3/16ths  Mile
Surface – Dirt

1 – Mugatu
2 – Uncle Heavy                                                              
3 –Catching Freedom
4 – Muth                            
5 – Mystik Dan
6 – Seize the Grey                         
7 – Just Steel
8 – Tuscan Gold
9 - Imagination

I have to imagine that most people who follow horse racing believe the best three year old horses in the nation will be absent from The Preakness.

Fierceness, who faded in the Kentucky Derby – was the Florida Derby and Juvenile Champion.

Sierra Leone who missed by a nostril in the Kentucky Derby is out – although I’m hoping for a Belmont Stakes run – it looks like it would be a great distance for this horse.

And Arkansas Derby winner #4 Muth scratched.

Leaving us with a field of 8….and very little competition for Kentucky Derby Winner #5 Mystik Dan.

Let’s begin with #1 Mugatu – who’s last  victory was with Joe Bravo aboard in November 2023. He has two 3^rd place showings in his last 5 races…..and his best races are at One Mile….the extra 3/16ths are likely going to be too much for this horse. Outside of Bravo being back, not much to believe in here.

#2 Uncle Heavy – (Which sadly is NOT some kind of mash-up of Uncle Buck and the Sopranos) 

You woke up this morning...
Got a blue moon in your eyes

 – he switches to Irad Ortiz for his first new jockey in 5 Lifetime races – and he does have 3 wins in 5 attempts. He last raced  April 6^th, finishing 5^th against lack luster talent, but he may have some fresher legs coming into this race. He hasn’t raced against much talent….but at 20-1, in the rain, he may be worth a thought in this one…..but only if the odds are good!

 #4 Catching Freedom – The Louisiana Derby winner  finished 4^th behind Mystik Dan in the Kentucky Derby….and is the next closest finisher to participate in both races. His Jockey Flavien Prat is one of the best in the business and they were gaining some ground in the final furlongs at Twin Spires. He’s the second favorite and could be the one to steal a victory from Mystik Dan.

#5 Mystik Dan – Kenneth McPeek has been a GREAT Trainer this year and I’m certainly happy that he’s found major success and Brian Hernandez returns as Mystik Dan's rider – having ridden this horse 6 of his 7 races and his last three straight.

Mystik Dan had the perfect ride in the Kentucky Derby….you really can’t write it up better that that. Coming out of the three hole this horse found enough space to take the rail early and wait for the final turn to open up. Coming out of the turn Mystik Dan stuck to the rail and charged up the final furlongs with nothing in front of him -- He received JUST the luck he needed as Fierceness faded, and Sierra Leone didn’t have enough time to catch up.

 
Part of the problem of having confidence in this horse is the “luck” part.  

In March he finished 3^rd behind Muth and #7 Just Steel.

In Februrary he beat Just Steel in a Mile 1/16^th.

In January he finished 5^th behind Catching Freedom and Just Steel.

In the Kentucky Derby this horse proved that he could win at this distance and had the discipline and nerve to take the rail and wait for his moment…….OR (like his other races) is this horse about to regress?

I’m not sure he should be sitting at 5/2 odds.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
enjoys a positive affirmation
with a play on words!
Seize the Grey indeed!

#6 Seize the Grey – Rider Jaime Torres returns after a successful stakes race on Kentucky Derby Day. Out of 9 races this horse has 3 Wins and 3 Shows – finished a very disappointing 7^th in Keeneland against Sierra Leone and Just a Touch. I wish this horse had fresher legs…as he also raced just two weeks ago – but I think 15-1 are good odds for this horse. Don’t know that he’s got a win in him here, but like his chance to make the top 3.

#7 Just Steel – This horse has had 12 Lifetime races and earned 2 Wins, 4 Places, 1 Show…..and also finished 17^th in the Kentucky Derby.  Just Steel offered up the early speed in the last race and will likely be at the top to begin this race as well. Again, not fresh legs here and really faded in his last race….the intriguing part to me is that in his last 5 races Just Steel has finished 2^nd in three of those races and out of the money in the other two.

This horse finished immediately behind Muth in March (but ahead of Mystik Dan), behind Mystik Dan in February, and behind Catching Freedom in January.

#8 Tuscan Gold – Only three lifetime races and two in 2024 – finished 3^rd in March behind Catching Freedom and comes in with very fresh legs and Tyler Gaffailione on board.  A little bit of an unknown factor here. Watch his odds.

#9 Imagination – Out of 6 Lifetime races this horse has 2 Wins and 4 Places. After winning the San Felipe in Santa Anita, Imagination finished 2^nd in the Santa Anita Derby. This is another horse with Fresh legs.

I don’t think Mugatu or Uncle Heavy have much to offer in this race – although if it’s a sloppy track it could be a weird race day…..but still I’m knocking these two out of contention.

I think Catching Freedom with Flavien Prat are going to be able to position themselves well with Mystik Dan……Mystik I believe will be looking to grab the inside again....we'll see if Catching Freedom blocks him from the rail.

It will be interesting if Just Steel decides to just run with Mystik Dan and not push the tempo – that being said I don’t love the change in Jockey for Just Steel – Rosario has had success with this horse, but it’s been more than a year.

Seize the Grey will likely also run towards the front of the pack – there’s a chance Seize the Grey and Just Steel fade due to a fast early speed…..and both of these horses have only had two weeks off.

Tuscan Gold is a mystery ---- I’d like better odds here.

Imagination may need the lead in this race and coming out of the 9^th spot in Mud isn’t selling me – BUT this horse is ONLY real contender that is coming in fresh.

My big questions
What the hell is Tuscan Gold going to do?
Will Seize the Grey ,  Just Steel and Imagination find themselves in an early speed battle and fade?
And will Mystik Dan be able to hold off a late charging Catching Freedom?

I’m rooting for Mystik Dan – but,

How many times did I mention Fresh Legs?
I'm like a ZZ Top Special Dance Mix!

Closing Speed likes:   

Catching Freedom, Mystik Dan, Tuscan Gold

*** If there's lots of SLOP- give me Imagination, Mystik Dan and Catching Freedom

$1 Box Trifecta – 3,5,7.9 = $24

$10 - #6 Seize the Grey to Win
$10 - #7 Just Steel to Win

 

Kentucky Derby 2024

Churchill Downs  – May  4th, 2024
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $5,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface - Dirt

 

1 – Dornoch 2 – Sierra Leone 3 – Mystik Dan 4 – Catching Freedom 5 – Catalytic 6 – Just Steel 7 – Honor Marie 8 –  Just a Touch 9 –  Encino 10 –  TO Password

11 – Forever Young 12 – Track Phantom 13 – West Saratoga 14 – Endlessly 15 – Domestic Product 16 – Grand Mo The First 17 – Fierceness 18 – Stronghold 19 – Resilience 20 –  Society Man 21 – Epic Ride 22 – Mugatu

I’ll begin with the Morning Line Favorite #17 Fierceness (5/2) – He is the Breeders Cup Juvenile Champion and Winner of the Florida Derby.

His Trainer Todd Pletcher has won Two Kentucky Derbies – His Jockey John Velazquez has won Three Kentucky Derbies – they won one of those Derbies together in 2017 with Always Dreaming (who was also a Florida Derby Winner).

Fierceness has a fantastic post position in this race.  Not to take anything away from this horse and this team…..but Bob Baffert and his horses also won’t be competing at the Kentucky Derby – so the competition is diminished. 

It’s absolutely his Derby to lose – the only question is – how will he handle the distance and could he come out flat – which is the same issue for all of the horses.

Also racing: #5 Catalytic, #16 Grand Mo The First

#2 Sierra Leone is the second current favorite (3-1) and is coming off of two straight trips to the Winners Circle at the Blue Grass Stakes and Risen Star Stakes. 

His Trainer Chad Brown has never won a KY Derby – but is one of the best in the business – Tyler Gaffalione also has never won a KY Derby – but is one of the most experienced Riders at Churchill Downs. 

One item of note Tyler Gaffalione won the Tampa Bay Derby with #15 Domestic Product – and obviously choose to continue with Sierra Leone. 

I don’t trust Blue Grass Stakes winners…..they normally don’t perform well in the KY Derby. 

I don’t like Sierra Leone’s Post Position – however because this horse naturally likes to run from deep in the back of the pack, I don’t think this Post Position hurts his chances to win as much as it would many of the other horses. 

I can see this horse having to give up a LOT of ground early….perhaps WAY to much for a horse like Fierceness, and not being able to break through the heavy traffic  coming out of the second turn. 

If this horse has to go 8 or 10 wide to make a late move – I don’t believe he’ll have the time to catch up for a win. 

I don’t like the odds for this horse – as I believe he is going to absolutely depend on a gap opening up late (but not TOO late) and giving him a shot to shoot the gap and run inside and steal a win. 

Lots of negatives here – could get pinned to the rail and swallowed up by the traffic early and never given a shot to break out…..if he can break away he’s very dangerous….but the other 19 Jockey’s know that as well.

Also Racing: #8 Just A Touch, #21 Epic Ride

Bonus Points if you knew this album came
out in 1996!

#4 Catching Freedom is the next favorite (8/1) and current Louisiana Derby champion. 

He is trained by Brad Cox who is dominating at Churchill Downs and has won 2 Kentucky Derbies previously. His KY Derby victory in 2019 was with Flavien Prat aboard and so far has been Prat’s only KY Derby win. Cox and Prat reunite here with Catching Freedom. 

Not the best Post Position – as he may have trouble with traffic early AND  the Louisiana Derby hasn’t produced a Kentucky Derby Winner since 1996.....some might say this horse is just a Wannabe!!

Catching Freedom finished 3^rd behind Sierra Leone and #12 Track Phantom in the Risen Star Stakes….I don’t love the odds for this horse. 

Below are the horses I believe COULD SHOCK / UPSET:

#9 Just A Touch (10/1) – is also a Brad Cox Trained horse and is ridden by Florent Geroux who is ON FIRE at Churchill right now…..winning at about 31% -- these two won a KY Derby (Geroux’s only) in 2021.

Just A Touch was sired by Justify who is not only the only KY Derby winning Sire – but also the only Triple Crown winner as a Sire.

Has a great Post Position – HOWEVER this horse hasn’t had a victory since January – finished 2^nd in the Gotham and 2^nd against Sierra Leone at Blue Grass.

Justify had a lot of Flash in the Splash

#6 Just Steel (20/1) – also sired by Justify – with legend D Wayne Lucas as his trainer and Keith Asmussen as his rider.

The good news about this horse is that he’s seasoned – having 11 races in his young career – the bad news is he only has 2 wins. That last victory was at Churchill Downs in November.

 Excellent Post Position – he finished 2^nd in the Arkansas Derby…..maybe gets a break and gives us an upset?

 

#12 Track Phantom (20-1) – Ridden by Joel Rosario who had a KY Derby win in 2013 – and trained by Steven Asmussen.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
still can't believe
Natalie Portman and
Jar Jar Binks shared a screen!

 #9 Just A Touch and #12 Track Phantom could be the “early” speed in this race. 

Track Phantom had 3 straight wins at 1 1/16^th mile……but when the distance increased he hasn’t had the endurance to finish strong……falling to 2^nd place against Sierra Leone in the Risen Star and 4^th against Catching Freedom and Honor Marie. 

But on May the Fourth…..you have to ask if he could be a Phantom Menance?!?!

#18 Stronghold (20/1)– Winner of the Santa Anita Derby and Sunland Derby winner. 

I have been told I have a West Coast bias – but why is this horse going off at 20/1?? 

I recognize that his Trainer Philip D’Amato and Jockey Antonio Fresu don’t have a KY Derby victory on their resume….but this horse is right next to the favorite and has enough speed to stay towards the top of the pack. 

** If Fierceness comes out flat or fades…..I like this horse a LOT better than 8/1 Catching Freedom. 

Won’t be surprised if this horse comes in closer to 8/1 or 6/1 at the bell…..if you can get any better than 10/1 odds here – this could be a very good price.

#19 Resilience (20/1) – John R Velazquez rode this horse to victory in the Wood Memorial – but chose to stick with Fierceness for the KY Derby.

Junior Alvarado will be aboard – and Resilience will also ride closer to the top of the pack. 

Bill Mott is his trainer and won a KY Derby in 2019. 

Here’s the three scenrios I see happening – 

1^st Scenario

#17 Fierceness glides into position as they approach the first turn – he keeps pace or stalks the early leaders – he takes over after the first turn – he muscles out of the second turn and glides to victory. Sierra Leone “Maybe” makes a desperate attempt for 2^nd place or a Longshot holds him off because he hit traffic late.

2^nd Scenario

#2 Sierra Leone  - “manages” the first few steps of the race without getting swallowed up in traffic. Falls VERY far behind a hot pace – begins making his creep going into the second turn – as they swing out of the second turn - Tyler Gaffalione sees the perfect hole, gives Sierra Leone the signal and they shoot through a hole near the rail and charge past the fading early leaders including a wobbly Fierceness.

I think this horse will HAVE to have an inside gap – I’ve seen much better horses fail to go 8 to 12 wide to win the KY Derby. 

Granted if Scenario 2 happens  this writer than has to “own” that the Blue Grass Stakes have something to offer. 

3^rd Scenario

If you’re betting on this race and want to win big….this is YOUR Scenario.

Fierceness comes out flat…..or gets caught in an early speed trap and is absolutely gassed with 2 or 3 furlongs to go…..they have misjudged the pace or the distance and he’s fading.

Meanwhile Sierra Leone struggled in traffic early – has never found a space to run freely and is trapped behind traffic coming out of the final turn…..He’s not going to make it!

Both of these can happen – which would leave us with a relatively BIG UPSET as the only other option.

And that’s when I think having some money on #6 Just Steel,  #9 Just A Touch, #12 Track Phantom, #18 Stronghold, or #19 Resilience is the way to go.

Out of those 5 – I like Just a Touch and Stronghold the most.

Closing Speed likes: Fierceness, Just A Touch and Stronghold

If I’m betting $20 to $24 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box (with favorites): 2, 9, 17, 18 = $24

$1 Exacta Box : 2,17 w  6, 9, 12, 18, 19  = $10

Longshots:

$5 Win/Place – #9 = $10
$5 Win/ Place - #18 - $10

Good Luck and.....May the Fourth be with you!

Belmont Stakes 2023

Belmont Park
RACE 12 - 7:02 PM
Belmont S. (Grade I)
Purse - $1,500,000
Distance - One And one ½ Miles
Surface – Dirt

1 – Tapit Shoes
2 – Tapit Trice                           
3 – Arcangelo
4 – National Treasure                                   
5 – Il Miracolo   
6 – Forte                           
7 – Hit Show
8 – Angel Of Empire
9 – Red Route One

Let’s begin with the Preakness Winner #4 National Treasure – who went stride for stride with Blazing Sevens and squeaked out a HUGE win. 

I thought both of those horses would fade and that Mage and Red Route One would give us an electric late charge….but that was not the case. 

If you missed it – here is the race:

There are a couple of interesting storylines with the 155^th Belmont Stakes – the most important is the hazardous air quality in New York from the wildfires in Canada. 

Here’s hoping this difficult time ends soon for our friends in New York. 

Air Quality will definitely have an effect on the Training, Riding and Racing before the Belmont - that is IF it's still run this Saturday.

The next biggest story is the hopeful return of, the current 5-2 favorite, #6 Forte. I thought there was a very good chance this horse could be a Triple Crown contender before he was scratched before the Kentucky Derby. 

I still believe he’s easily the best 3 year old running this year – and only two horses in the field have ever won at Belmont – and he’s one of them! 

However the distance does concern me, especially because we’ve never seen this horse run more than a mile and 1/8^th. 

With a unique longer distance after a two and half month lay-off and possible small injury…..this horse may be a little rusty for this race. 

I guess what I’m saying is…when he’s healthy and ready – he’s definitely the favorite – are we sure he’s completely healthy and ready??

#1 Tapit Shores – hasn’t produced a victory since December 2022 – he finished 2^nd behind #9 Red Route One in late April. This horse has like a 12 Owner Partnership….maybe he’s just entered so that the owners can party at Belmont…….I’d believe it.

#2 Tapit Trice – Finished a disappointing 7^th in the Kentucky Derby – before then he had 4 straight wins with Luis Saez on board – and Saez will be on board for the Belmont. This horse is a contender in this race – but I’m not a huge fan of him winning. Currently he’s the second favorite at 3-1 and I don’t think he should be. I don’t think he can close the deal at a Mile and a half. 

And yes Tapit Shores and Tapit Trice are half-brothers.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
thinks it would be awkward
to meet your half brother for
the first time in the Starters Gate
of a big race.

#3 Arcangelo – I think this horse may be flying under the radar a little – he’s got 2 straight victories with Castellano coming into this race and continues to improve as they add distance. 

And his last victory was here at Belmont! 

He hasn’t seen this kind of talent yet – so it could be overwhelming, but keep this horse in mind to take a top 3 spot at the end of the race – if you’re looking for a “value bet” he could be the one to add to your exotics. 

#4 National Treasure – the only horse running in the Belmont with a Triple Crown victory is going off as the 4^th Favorite……talk about no respect....but then again, the FILM is also kind of disrespected!!

This image is similar to me reviewing 
where I went WRONG in the Preakness.

I thought this horse would do a HARD FADE in the Preakness and I was wrong – out of 6 lifetime races he’s only finished out of the money once.

Jockey John Velazquez will be on board again – and I think National Treasure has more of a chance than people are giving him credit for.

 #5 Il Miracolo – Is the Colpo Lungo in this race at 30-1. He recently scored an Allowance Race victory but out of 6 Stakes races….he’s never finished better than 5^th.  If you were to make me your Race Day Consigliere I would tell you to “Stai lontano…Capiche??

#7 Hit Show – When you consider how difficult it is to climb out of the #1 spot in the Kentucky Derby – his 5^th place finish is impressive. This horse has 3 Wins and 1 Place in 6 races. He has Manuel Franco has his rider who has been with him during the last three races.

I just don’t see this horse improving with distance.

#8 Angel of Empire – Finished 3^rd behind Mage and Two Phil’s in the Kentucky Derby – and if Flavien Prat could have made the move around the edge when he wanted they might have won the Kentucky Derby.

I like Angel of Empire with distance and I believe Angel of Empire should be the 2^nd favorite in this race – currently at 7-2 odds he’s the third favorite.

Angel of Empire had 2 victories and a second place in three Stakes races leading up to the Kentucky Derby. They have something to prove here.

#9 Red Route One – finished 4^th in the Preakness. I really thought this horse was ready to make an upset in the Preakness, but as they headed for home he didn’t offer much.

With a longer distance – and an improved field, I don’t like his chances.

How I see the 2023 Belmont –

I think Il Miracolo will set the pace along with National Treasure – Tapit Shoes may also join the early runners.

In the past there has been an effective strategy in the Belmont Stakes of taking an early lead and then just hoping to outlast the rest of the pack….the daunting distance can cause many horses to just give out before they even get close to the leader.

For National Treasure I think this strategy is worth considering – after all it worked in the Preakness.

If Forte is game, you can expect him to stalk the lead(s) but maintaining a smart pace. Angel of Empire will likely be stalking Forte – the idea may be that when Forte commits to the stretch run Flavien Prat will ask Angel of Empire to commit as well.

It will be interesting to me to see if they want to position Angel of Empire in front of Forte or immediately behind him.

The question will be where will Tapit Thrice and Arcangelo run – I imagine they will have the same strategy as Angel of Empire – in keeping close to Forte.

As we head for the LONG WOBBLY stretch home –

I think National Treasure will have a few lengths on most of the pack and clear ground in front of him.

I believe Forte, Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice and Arcangelo will make a solid bid at the lead.

I think Angel of Empire steals one from Forte at the wire…..National Treasure hanging on to 3rd with Arcangelo and Tapit Trice looking to take 4th.

Closing Speed likes:  Angel of Empire, Forte, National Treasure

If I’m betting $16 to $34 – this is what I like:

$10 Win - #4

$1 Box Exacta – 4,6,8 = $6

$1 Box Trifecta – 3,4,6,8 = $24

The Preakness 2023

Pimlico Race Track
RACE 13 – 7:01 PM
Preakness S. (Grade I)
Purse - $1,500,000
Distance - One And 3/16ths  Mile
Surface – Dirt

1 – National Treasure
2 – Chase the Chaos                                                 
3 – Mage
4 – Coffeewithchris                       
5 – Red Route One
6 – Perform                                       
7 – Blazing Sevens
8 – First Mission

Mage is the one in the middle.

I am a bit saddened that only one horse from the Kentucky Derby will be racing in the Preakness – the good news is, it is the Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness Favorite #3 Mage.

If you haven’t seen the Kentucky Derby the replay is below.

However if you only watched it casually or only watched it once – I’d ask for you to watch it again with a few specifics in mind.

 Using the Youtube Video timer:  

If you go to the 1:35 point you will see Mage and Angel of Empire going stride for stride in the final turn – Mage is strategically on the outside – but still in the middle of the track (it’s a strange NBC Angle from above).

At 1:45 – You will see Mage block off an outside hole for Angel of Empire – boxing Angel of Empire inside.

It takes Angel of Empire 20 seconds (2:05) to swing outside and find open ground – just enough time for Mage to fly by Two Phils and still beat Angel of Empire to the finish line!

Rider Javier Castellano absolutely made the difference in this race.

 

So let’s move onto the Preakness.

 #8 Mage – is the morning line favorite at 8-5 – and while I certainly agree he should be the favorite, I think those odds are far too cocky for a horse that only has 2 lifetime wins. 

Yes he’s very likely the best horse in this field and he seems to favor races longer than a mile – but 8/5 on a horse with just two wins? I don’t know about that. 

Searching for clues on these odds.

#1 National Treasure – is another horse that I’m not so positive deserves the odds of 4-1. While I love this horses name because the film National Treasure is guilty pleasure of mine – similar to the film, just because it’s loved doesn’t mean it’s that good…..(who am I kidding – it’s wonderful!)

Jockey John Velazquez has been National Treasures jockey for all 5 of this horses races – he’s a very good rider and knows the horse well. However if you look at this horse’s history – he’s actually struggled with the any race further than a mile.

 He has the talent to land in the top three – but could very easily be “fade” material.

 #2 Chase the Chaos – Is the El Camino Derby winner and therefore an automatic invite to the Preakness. I like that Trainer / Ownership are going with a very successful Pimilico Jockey – Sheldon Russell, who has won 7 out of 13 races here at Pimilico this meet.

But I don’t see anything on this horse’s resume to suggest a wager….even at 50-1.

#4 Coffeewithchris – This horse has 12 lifetime races, and for a 3 year old that’s a LOT. Out of those 12 races this horse has been a Win/Place or Show 8 times…..which is also impressive.

Current 20-1 odds makes some sense – as this horse hasn’t necessarily challenged this level of talent – but I really like the success rate here – and he should be considered as a Exacta / Trifecta contender player.

 #5 Red Route One – finished 6^th behind Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby – but won his last race, coming from as far back as 8 lengths.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
would like to point out that
the writers Father DID like
Two Phils in that race.

 At 10-1 odds and an ability to close late – this horse also has my interest in an Exacta / Trifecta.  He has hit the board 5 out of 9 lifetime races.  And Joel Rosario was on board with his most recent win.

 #6 Perform – has won his last 2 races and has hit the board 4 out of 7 races lifetime. Finished well behind Mage this past January. 

 His morning line is 15-1 – I really don’t see much in this horse…..but to be fair, I didn’t see much in Two Phils who finished 2^nd in the KY Derby.

#7 Blazing Sevens – I think this horse will be overbet because it’s the #7 horse and his name is Blazing Sevens! He’s a solid horse who has been training well.  He has 2 Victories in 6 lifetime attempts.

But hasn’t won a race since October 2022. I think 10-1 odds would be reasonable for this horse.

 #8 First Mission – This horse is the current 2^nd favorite after Mage. He has raced in only three races but has 2 wins and 1 place…..his last two races were both trips to the Winner’s Circle.

He may need to be the early speed in this race and certainly could fancy a Wire to Wire trip. I don’t love his outside position against a horse like Mage in this race.

 Here’s how I see the race:

#8 First Mission bolts for the early lead and may have to contend with #4 Coffeewithchris.

#3 Mage will likely enjoy a leisurely first mile staying within a few lengths of the leaders.

#1 National Treasure could be a bit of a wildcard – this horse could look to stay on the inside, but also stay stride for stride with Mage….however that also could lead to this horse getting boxed inside when it counts?

 #5 Red Route One and #6 Perform I think will stay at the back of the pack.

I think #8 First Mission fades…..I’ll be surprised if he has the maturity to pace himself and then outrun Mage down the stretch -- as this is only Mage's 4th race......it may be a mistake to discount First Mission on a lack of races. I may be rooting for a longer shot here because it would be more interesting.

 #4 Coffeewithchris – could finish well because his early position may help him stay in the race.

 **If Mage were to fade in this race - #4 Coffeewithchris and #5 Red Route One could churn up some sizeable upsets.

However I think Mage flys by everyone in the final stretch – and Red Route One, First Mission and National Treasure fight it out a few lengths behind.

Closing Speed likes:  Mage, Coffeewithchris and Red Route One

If I'm betting this race:

 $1 Box Trifecta – 3,4,5,8 = $24

$1 Box Exacta – 3,4,5 = $6

Kentucky Derby 2023

Churchill Downs  – May  6th, 2023
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $3,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface - Dirt 

1 – Hit Show 2 – Verifying 3 – Two Phil’s 4 – Confidence Game 5 – Tapit Trice 6 – Kingsbarns 7 – Reincarnate 8 –  Mage 9 –  Skinner 10 –  Practical Move

11 – Disarm 12 – Jace’s Road 13 – Sun Thunder 14 – Angel of Empire 15 – Forte 16 – Raise Cain 17 – Derma Sotogake 18 – Rocket Can 19 – Lord Miles 20 – Continuar 21 - Cyclone Mischief 22 - Mandarin Hero 23- King Russell

I’ll begin with the Morning Line Favorite (3-1)  #15 Forte – I believe this horse has a legitimate chance to become only the 2^nd horse in history (following American Phoaroh) to win the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and the Triple Crown – the Kentucky Derby is, in my humble opinion, his to lose.

Forte has won 6 out of 7 lifetime races, including four Grade I Stakes races and a Grade II stakes race. His only "non-win" was in July 2022.

Forte runs with the consistency of a computer simulation – He breaks well, he runs in traffic with poise and he closes like a modish bad boss from Glengarry Glen Ross!

He will find his spot near the top of the pack for most of the race and then turn it on for the win once he hits the final stretch. 

He deserves to be the favorite – he has a solid post position and the leading Rider in the US - Irad Ortiz, Jr. (who has never won a Kentucky Derby).

For a look at how Forte runs, here's the Florida Derby (including #8 Mage and #21 (AE) Cyclone Mischief.

 

The next favorite is #5 Tapit Thrice currently set at 5-1 – (when I say his name it makes me think of the song Knock Three Times on the ceiling if you want me…..c’mon, Tony Orlando & Dawn?!?!)

You people don't know what you're missing!

I digress – Tapit Thrice has won 4 out of 5 lifetime races – but his only loss was his debut race. Tapit Thrice usually prefers to sit at the back of the pack and make a late bolt for the wire. 

If this horse can run his race and find a gap to burst through coming out of the turn – he "could" be plenty dangerous.

However here are my concerns with Tapit Thrice – I’m not a big fan of Blue Grass Stakes Winners to win the Kentucky Derby – they haven’t won a Kentucky Derby since 1991. And while he certainly has a solid post – I don’t think it’s going to help him much considering his racing style, I believe a post further out would have been preferable.

I think he’s going to get swallowed up in traffic early….and trapped behind a wall of horses late. His Jockey Luis Saez (2^nd best in the US) has also never “technically” won a Kentucky Derby – (he and Maximum Security were disqualified in 2019).

A look at Tapit Thrice and #2 Verifying in the Blue Grass Stakes:

#14 Angel of Empire is a morning line of (8-1) and his rider is Flavien Prat – who has one Kentucky Derby Victory (2019 -- the one Saez could have, should have had).  Angel of Empire has 4 lifetime wins in 6 attempts and is, most notably, the Arkansas Derby Winner.

Angel of Empire will be on the immediate inside post of the favorite Forte – and Flavien Prat could definitely use that to their advantage OR he could just ignore the favorite and run his best race.

Usually the outside horses will slowly mesh with the rest of the pack to save some ground before the first turn……I’ll be watching to see if Prat attempts to keep Forte on the outside as long as possible – maybe throw off the Favorite's game a little bit. Horse racing at its finest is a Chess Match being played at 40 mph.

Also Forte’s Rider Irad Ortiz could anticipate Prat using some strategy early and could pull Forte back early or see if they can cut Angel of Empire off before the 1^st turn……could be something – may be nothing at all - but at the beginning of the race....that's where I'll be focused.

Angel of Empire will likely attempt to keep close (and preferably inside) to Forte and “hope” they have the best gap on the inside to shoot when they hit the final stretch.

If Forte has a bad trip – I believe Angel of Empire has the best chance to win.

See Arkansas Derby – also including #23 (AE) King Russell and #7 Reincarnate:

There is a lot of buzz around # 17 Derma Sotogake the Japanese bred horse who won impressively at the UAE Derby (United Emirates). He has 4 wins out of a lifetime 8 races – but more to the point - he has won 3 out of his last 4.

There have been several years in the past when I’ve thought a UAE Derby winner might take home the Kentucky Roses (or at least challenge)…..however the highest finish we’ve seen in the past ten years has been 7^th place.

A Japanese Bred horse has never won a Kentucky Derby and neither has a UAE Derby winner - Derma Sotogake is both. 

 Currently I think this horse is going to be overbet – if he swings up to 20-1 – I’m more interested.

 UAE Derby – also includes #20 Continuar (JPN):

#2 Verifying  (15-1) has an ugly starting spot – but if this horse gets incredibly lucky he could own the rail and have a clear shot to the finish.  Will need a lot of luck to win – but could break the top 4.

#4 Confidence Game (20-1) – won the Rebel Stakes in February and hasn’t been heard from since. This is a pure long shot play – solid post and “who knows” what this horse can do at this point. Long layoffs are sometimes great…..usually not in the KY Derby….but this horse is a mystery at this point.

#6 Kingsbarns (12-1) the Louisiana Derby winner has a solid starting post and is undefeated in 3 starts. Despite the victory in the LA Derby – the pace was slow and it just didn’t impress. Flavien Prat was his jockey for the Louisiana Derby and he’s riding a different horse….so that should tell you something. Give me 30-1 here and I’d be more interested.

With this spot he could finish in the Top 4.

#8 Mage – (15-1) has only 3 lifetime races and has finished 2^nd, 4^th, and 1^st. Mage finished immediately behind the favorite Forte in the Arkansas Derby – I think he could be the most realistic "Longshot" of the bunch.

Our 38 Star Flag

My thinking is – that he has a very solid post position – there’s a chance Mage has a higher ceiling than some of the more experienced horses….we may have not seen this horse’s best race…..there’s also a chance that the lack of seasoning spooks Mage and he finishes in the back of the pack!

He’ll need a little luck as well – but if the others stall in traffic and he gets an opening – he could summon a victory in the Kentucky Derby. But I need these kinds of odds to keep my interest.

One important Kentucky Derby Trend to point out – Since 1882, only one horse (Justify = 2018) won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old…..that's 1882…meaning when the US only had 38 states!

 Kingbarns and Mage did NOT run as two year olds.

Entering the Kentucky Derby due to the many scratches is #22 Mandarin Hero - who finished 2nd behind Practical Move in the Santa Anita Derby. Out of lifetime 6 races this horse has 4 Wins and 2 Places. I think this horse has potential to land in the Top 4. This is a good horse that will be able to use this outside post to his advantage and may find a way to make you some money at 20-1.

Here’s how I see the race playing out –

#2 Verifying. #6 Kingsbarns and #7 Reincarnate will look to set the early pace.

Usually in these races one of the longshots goes on a suicidal pace…..and I usually know who it’s going to be….but this year I’m not sure......after a 10th glace I think it could be #7 Reincarnate and/or #21 Cyclone Mischief .... although that will be A LOT to ask from a horse posted at #21.

#14 Angel of Empire,  #17 Derma Sotogake and #22 Mandarin Hero will slowly blend into the pack and begin to work their ways towards the middle front.

#5 Tapit Trice – will likely be at the back of the pack…..perhaps even dead last until they reach the 2^nd turn.

If #2 Verifying can possess the rail and have an open avenue to the final stretch – he poses a threat…..BUT odds are he gets swallowed up by the pack – and can’t find a way out, until it’s too late.

#6 Kingsbarns – I think he has a better shot at placing himself in the perfect spot – but I think the more talented horses will push him and he’ll fade. I think likely coming out of the final turn is where the King runs out of steam.

#14 Angel of Empire  - if he can make the best move coming out of the final turn, either the perfect gap to burst through or making his way wide, but not having to go as wide as Derma Sotogake or Tapit Trice I now (after 5 scratches think it could be his race to lose).

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
has scratched from the 
149th KY Derby.
 

#17 Derma Sotogake – I've had a change of heart with this horse - primarily because I believe his post position has improved with so many scratches in this race. I don't trust this horse to win the race - but could DEFINITELY be a top 3 horse.

Finally #5 Tapit Trice – I’m just not a fan of a Bluegrass Stakes winner AND a late charging horse in the Kentucky Derby. I think he falls to the back of the pack – and makes a huge sweeping outside charge at the end and then he fades.

His Jockey is one of the best and may have Tapit Trice weave through traffic and find an inside hole to punch and I could be looking at having a big swing and a miss here….but I’m going to trust what I’ve seen over the past two decades. My gut tells me Tapit Trice comes out flat and finishes closer to 6th.

Closing Speed likes:  Angel of Empire, Mage, Mandarin Hero

History advices to toss out Kingsbarn, Mage, Tapit Trice, Derma Sotogake and Mandarin Hero as possible winners...however with so many great horses suddenly scratched it's very possible we see History "made" today or at least a very RARE winner from an unexpected Prep Race. 

Good Luck everyone.

If I’m betting $20 to $24 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box (with favorites): 5, 8, 14, 17 = $24

$1 Trifecta Box (The Bold call): 8,22, 14, 4, = $24

$1 Exacta Box: 17,14,22,8,5 = $20

Longshots:

$5 Win/Place – #17 = $10

$2 Across the Board - #4 – Confidence Game = $6
$2 Across the Board #2 – Verifying = $6
$2 Across the Board #22 – Mandarin Hero = $6