GOLDEN GATE - January 12,
2013
Race 4 - 2:18 PM
California Derby
Purse - $100,000
Distance - One And One Sixteenth Miles
1 – Will True Up
2 – Condiment
3 – Zeewat
4 – Wildcat Moon
5 – Tree of Life
6 – Butterfly Soul
7 –My Best Bet
When I began writing about Horse Racing I decided that I
would likely begin each season with the California Derby (because Cali is my
home) – and end my three year old write-ups with the West Virginia Derby….the
state where I was born.
The California Derby doesn’t always attract the most
talented horses – however there are two horses lining up at the starting gate this
year that may deserve your attention – and they are the 6/5 morning line
favorite #3 Zeewat and #5 Tree of Life.
#3 Zeewat – has been dominant with Russell Baze on board,
having won three races (out of a career five). Two strikes against this horse
is that he’ll carry the most weight (122) and this will be his first time
stretching out to a mile and 1/16th. However Zeewat has the highest
earnings of the field and unless he comes out flat….or another horse surprises –
I think Zeewat finishes in the top three without any surprise -- and also his good luck guy Baze will be aboard.
#5 Tree of Life is second in earnings and showed promise in his early career –
having won his first two races (both at 6 furlongs), however he’s followed that
with a 10th place finish and a 5th place finish in a mile
and 1/16th and a mile. He returns to racing after a 49 day rest ---- and he could be the
kind of horse that returns from a rest and dominates the field….he could also
finish 7th?!?!
I wouldn’t be surprised if Tree of Life slipped into
being the third favorite – and #2 Condiment switches places with him.
#2 Condiment – has only one victory in six races –
however he has three recent races at 1 mile and he finished second in two of them.
He has the inside track on both Zeewat and Tree of Life and with a little luck
his opponents could come out flat and he could pull off a minor upset. Problem
is…..I write that and then immediately remember : 1 victory in 6 races…..he’s
also lost to Zeewat twice.
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah thinks that the author making a "Condiment" play on words is a new low... |
Like a well relished frankfurter -- #1 Will True Up will have Condiment covering
his outside……
Will True Up may have the best sire in Lawyer Ron (a
challenger to Barbaro almost 10 years ago), however despite his excellent
breeding – Will True Up has only 1 win in 4 attempts, and the victory was at 6
furlongs. I think at the right odds you might throw down some cash in hopes
that his father’s talent arrives this Saturday…..but I would need 10/1….or
more, I just don’t see anything on paper that makes me a believer.
#4 Wildcat Moon – has two career victories in seven – and both of those victories were in his last two races. He’s carrying 116
lbs. and while his victories have only been in 6 furlong races – I like that he’s
coming into the race off of two consecutive victories. At 8/1 he’s got me
thinking.
#6 Butterfly Soul – with horses like Butterfly Soul and
Tree of Life, I can’t tell if I’m looking at horses or sitting at the Bodhi
Tree Bookstore….(oh wait they closed that store….bummer)…..anyway I think this
horse’s name is real groovy and I really dig that she’s a filly – I also really
like that she’s currently the longshot at 15-1 and carrying the least weight –
114.
She has two career victories (out of five attempts) and
both victories came under a mile. However she’s run in solid stakes races
and while her best recent finish was 2nd in a mile race – I like
that her last three races were a mile or longer. At 15-1 she’s tempting.
And finally #7 My Best Bet who has won three races out of
six….problem is he’s finished behind Zeewat and Condiment in two of those six
races…..and you have to wonder what could help this horse’s luck. There’s a
chance his outside post will help, and of course there’s a chance the other
horses will misjudge the distance….but I think “my best bet” is not to put
money on this horse winning this Saturday -- (which seeing how my confidence usually backfires...could make this horse your best bet...)
In closing Zeewat was absolutely stunning in the Gold
Rush Stakes here at Golden Gates – he pulled away easily from the rest of the
field and, without question, deserves to be the favorite.
I think having the inside slot and adding more distance
will help Condiment….but unless the time off and training have seriously improved
his closing abilities – I think a second place finish is (once again) very
likely – however I think Wildcat Moon will steal the 2nd place from
him and Condiment will finish third.
Now comes the betting side:
Since I didn’t cash a winning ticket from my last blog –
I’ll slow down the betting this week and only put $10 on the table.
$1 Exacta 3,4 with 2,3,4,6 ($6)
$4 Butterfly Soul to Win
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