CHURCHILL DOWNS - May 03, 2014
Race 11 - 6:24 PM
Kentucky Derby (Grade
I)
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One And One Fourth Miles
Surface - Dirt
1 – Vicar’s In
Trouble
2 – Harry’s
Holiday
3 – Uncle Sigh
4 – Danza
5 – California
Chrome
6 – Samraat
7 – We Miss Artie
8 – General A Rod
9 – Vinceremos
10 - Wildcat Red
11 – Hoppertunity -
Scratched
12 – Dance with Fate
13 – Chitu
14 – Medal Count
15 – Tapiture
16 – Intense Holiday
17 – Commanding Curve
18 – Candy Boy
19 – Ride On Curlin
20 - Wicked Strong
As we prepare for the 2014 Kentucky Derby many are disappointed because of what “could have been”.
So many very talented young horses found themselves off
the Derby trail due to injury – Horses like New Year’s Day and Havana who
finished 1st and 2nd in the Breeder’s Cup Futurity,
Florida Derby Winner Constitution, Cairo Prince who looked untouchable in the
early spring and several others give this year’s Triple Crown a “depleted”
feel.
And it’s my opinion that because so many horse racing
fans had their eyes on other horses – #5 California Chrome may seem like he’s
simply the best of the rest……however his Santa Anita Derby victory is something
to behold.
As you watch this race there are a number key points to
consider.
He keeps pace with Dublin Up in a 22.89 quarter mile –
which is a fairly swift pace for this distance and at this age.
In the final stretch he doesn’t wobble or wander into a
different lane – which is often a sign of fatigue in these young horses ---
instead he runs a VERY STRAIGHT line and he runs it several lengths in front of
a number of quality horses.
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One other item to consider – his mile and a quarter was
the fastest of “big” derby winners (Wood
Memorial / Arkansas Derby / Florida Derby / Louisiana Derby) and he did it
without being pushed.
Granted Santa Anita tends to be a little faster…..so there's room for doubt....but there's a lot of whispers that this horse ain't all that....despite his dominate victory....
See Video:
So there’s a VERY good reason this horse is the favorite –
and he has a sweet post position to start the race.
However he could get swallowed up in the pack of 18 other
horses --- and California Horses have fallen short many times before in
Kentucky so if you don’t feel like betting the favorite here are some other
horses I think you should consider.
#1 Vicar’s In Trouble – This horse has a great Twitter
account….no I’m not kidding – unfortunately this very talented Colt drew the #1
spot and I believe he’s going to get engulfed by EVERYONE to his right and will
probably lose this race in less than 2 seconds into it.
HOWEVER – if Vicar’s in Trouble can manage to shoot out
of the 1 spot and find a way to grab the early lead….he could be very tough to
catch…..but that’s asking A LOT!
No matter where he finishes – if he runs in the Preakness….don’t
forget this horse.
#4 Danza….okay for those of you who don’t know – this horse’s
sire was named Street Boss --- so you combine “Boss” with “Danza” and you get……
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Word play aside – Danza pulled off a solid victory in
the Arkansas Derby and being positioned just inside the favorite California Chrome might
just be the best place to be…..however in my opinion the Kentucky Derby could
be overwhelming for Danza as this will only be his fifth career race – and his
only two victories are the Arkansas Derby and his Maiden race back in July
2013.
He certainly flashed talent in the Arkansas Derby – but I
think this could be too much, too soon for this horse.
#6 Samraat – was undefeated in five races, until finishing 2nd
in the Wood Memorial --- maybe this was
just an off day for this horse, maybe the Trainers weren’t concern with winning
and were more focused on getting ready for the KY Derby??? My feeling is that at this point in his career asking for anything
over a mile and 1/8th is asking for more than he’s got.
#7 We Miss Artie – Okay you want my CRAZZZZZZZZYYYYY long
shot pick – then consider We Miss Artie winner of the Spiral Stakes, and also
the owner of a solid post position as well.
He’s got a solid late kick which has won a number of
Kentucky Derbies – I think he’s underbet…..however in February he finished 8th
behind Wildcat Red and General A-Rod, so he may be lucky just to finish in the
top 10 here. But he could easily be 100-1 at the bell.....
#10 Wildcat Red finished 2nd (behind
Constitution) in the Florida Derby – and I like this horse – however I think he
may need the early lead to contend (which I don’t think he’ll be able to get) –
and it appeared to me that he wilted at the end of the Florida Derby, which is
either a lack of competitiveness or struggling with a lesser distance than the KY
Derby --- neither make me optimistic. However with a little luck he could certainly
be in the top 3.
#12 Dance with Fate – If I’m betting just one horse to
upset California Chrome it would be the 20-1 Blue Grass Stakes winner Dance
with Fate! I’m not real crazy about
placing my hopes on the Blue Grass Stakes winner, because the surface for the
Blue Grass is Synthetic which is different from the Kentucky Dirt.
Dance with
Fate also finished only 2nd in the relatively lowly El Camino Real
Derby….which also doesn’t inspire…..he only has three victories in eight
attempts…..HOWEVER….
Dance with Fate shows solid maturity and patience in the Blue Grass which featured 14 horses….so numbers don’t rattle this horse.
He also closed strongly and looked very comfortable
stretching it out a little more distance…..one other thing to consider the past
seven Kentucky Derby Winners all came from Posts 10 or greater (and 4 out of those 7 were #11).
#12 Orb/ #11 I’ll Have Another / #11
Super Saver / #11 Animal Kingdom
/ # 11 Mine That Bird / #20 Big Brown / #10 Street Sense. – it hasn’t been
since Super Horse #8 Barbaro that we’ve had a winner inside #10.
In my humble opinion – Dance with Fate should be no less
than the third favorite in this race.
See Blue Grass Stakes:
#13 – Chitu is an interesting prospect. He’s won 3 out of 4 career races – however he
hasn’t raced since his victory 41 days ago in the Sunland Derby. His Sunland
time was 1:47 – similar to California Chrome. At 20-1 he may be worth a few
dollars to bet……he definitely fits the bill of the horse that crosses the
finish line first and everyone reaches for their program to find out who this horse is???
However in Feb. he was defeated by #18 Candy Boy --- and
Candy Boy finished well behind California Chrome in the Santa Anita.
#15 Tapiture worries me strictly because he’s a Tapit
horse……he’s finished progressively worse in his last two races (4th
and 2nd) after showing some promise as the victor in the Southwest
Stakes in February. I don’t think he can muster the distance…..but still he’s a
Tapit horse, and those Tapit horses seem to be wired to win.
#18 Ride On Curlin – I loved this horses sire Curlin –
and Jockey Calvin Borel definitely knows how to show up big in the Kentucky
Derby…..but only 2 wins in 9 races…..and even my “boy” Curlin didn’t win the KY
Derby.
#20 Wicked Strong – will likely go off as the second or
third favorite in this race and it makes a lot of sense. He finished strong in
the Wood Memorial, his post position doesn’t really affect his style of racing
as he’s likely to stay in the middle or back of the pack and close in the final
stretch.
He’s got a great closing kick and if California Chrome
doesn’t show up – he could be the one to beat.
Closing Speed likes: California Chrome / Dance With Fate
/ Wicked Strong
If I were betting $30…….
$10 – #11 to win (Dance With Fate) = $10
$1 – Exacta Box 5/10/20 – (California Chrome / Wildcat
Red / Wicked Strong) = $6
$1 – Exacta Box 5/11 with 5/6/10/11/19 = $10
$2 - #7 to place = $2
$2 - #18 to win = $2
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