The Preakness 2023

Pimlico Race Track
RACE 13 – 7:01 PM
Preakness S. (Grade I)
Purse - $1,500,000
Distance - One And 3/16ths  Mile
Surface – Dirt

1 – National Treasure
2 – Chase the Chaos                                                 
3 – Mage
4 – Coffeewithchris                       
5 – Red Route One
6 – Perform                                       
7 – Blazing Sevens
8 – First Mission

Mage is the one in the middle.

I am a bit saddened that only one horse from the Kentucky Derby will be racing in the Preakness – the good news is, it is the Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness Favorite #3 Mage.

If you haven’t seen the Kentucky Derby the replay is below.

However if you only watched it casually or only watched it once – I’d ask for you to watch it again with a few specifics in mind.

 Using the Youtube Video timer:  

If you go to the 1:35 point you will see Mage and Angel of Empire going stride for stride in the final turn – Mage is strategically on the outside – but still in the middle of the track (it’s a strange NBC Angle from above).

At 1:45 – You will see Mage block off an outside hole for Angel of Empire – boxing Angel of Empire inside.

It takes Angel of Empire 20 seconds (2:05) to swing outside and find open ground – just enough time for Mage to fly by Two Phils and still beat Angel of Empire to the finish line!

Rider Javier Castellano absolutely made the difference in this race.

 

So let’s move onto the Preakness.

 #8 Mage – is the morning line favorite at 8-5 – and while I certainly agree he should be the favorite, I think those odds are far too cocky for a horse that only has 2 lifetime wins. 

Yes he’s very likely the best horse in this field and he seems to favor races longer than a mile – but 8/5 on a horse with just two wins? I don’t know about that. 

Searching for clues on these odds.

#1 National Treasure – is another horse that I’m not so positive deserves the odds of 4-1. While I love this horses name because the film National Treasure is guilty pleasure of mine – similar to the film, just because it’s loved doesn’t mean it’s that good…..(who am I kidding – it’s wonderful!)

Jockey John Velazquez has been National Treasures jockey for all 5 of this horses races – he’s a very good rider and knows the horse well. However if you look at this horse’s history – he’s actually struggled with the any race further than a mile.

 He has the talent to land in the top three – but could very easily be “fade” material.

 #2 Chase the Chaos – Is the El Camino Derby winner and therefore an automatic invite to the Preakness. I like that Trainer / Ownership are going with a very successful Pimilico Jockey – Sheldon Russell, who has won 7 out of 13 races here at Pimilico this meet.

But I don’t see anything on this horse’s resume to suggest a wager….even at 50-1.

#4 Coffeewithchris – This horse has 12 lifetime races, and for a 3 year old that’s a LOT. Out of those 12 races this horse has been a Win/Place or Show 8 times…..which is also impressive.

Current 20-1 odds makes some sense – as this horse hasn’t necessarily challenged this level of talent – but I really like the success rate here – and he should be considered as a Exacta / Trifecta contender player.

 #5 Red Route One – finished 6^th behind Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby – but won his last race, coming from as far back as 8 lengths.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
would like to point out that
the writers Father DID like
Two Phils in that race.

 At 10-1 odds and an ability to close late – this horse also has my interest in an Exacta / Trifecta.  He has hit the board 5 out of 9 lifetime races.  And Joel Rosario was on board with his most recent win.

 #6 Perform – has won his last 2 races and has hit the board 4 out of 7 races lifetime. Finished well behind Mage this past January. 

 His morning line is 15-1 – I really don’t see much in this horse…..but to be fair, I didn’t see much in Two Phils who finished 2^nd in the KY Derby.

#7 Blazing Sevens – I think this horse will be overbet because it’s the #7 horse and his name is Blazing Sevens! He’s a solid horse who has been training well.  He has 2 Victories in 6 lifetime attempts.

But hasn’t won a race since October 2022. I think 10-1 odds would be reasonable for this horse.

 #8 First Mission – This horse is the current 2^nd favorite after Mage. He has raced in only three races but has 2 wins and 1 place…..his last two races were both trips to the Winner’s Circle.

He may need to be the early speed in this race and certainly could fancy a Wire to Wire trip. I don’t love his outside position against a horse like Mage in this race.

 Here’s how I see the race:

#8 First Mission bolts for the early lead and may have to contend with #4 Coffeewithchris.

#3 Mage will likely enjoy a leisurely first mile staying within a few lengths of the leaders.

#1 National Treasure could be a bit of a wildcard – this horse could look to stay on the inside, but also stay stride for stride with Mage….however that also could lead to this horse getting boxed inside when it counts?

 #5 Red Route One and #6 Perform I think will stay at the back of the pack.

I think #8 First Mission fades…..I’ll be surprised if he has the maturity to pace himself and then outrun Mage down the stretch -- as this is only Mage's 4th race......it may be a mistake to discount First Mission on a lack of races. I may be rooting for a longer shot here because it would be more interesting.

 #4 Coffeewithchris – could finish well because his early position may help him stay in the race.

 **If Mage were to fade in this race - #4 Coffeewithchris and #5 Red Route One could churn up some sizeable upsets.

However I think Mage flys by everyone in the final stretch – and Red Route One, First Mission and National Treasure fight it out a few lengths behind.

Closing Speed likes:  Mage, Coffeewithchris and Red Route One

If I'm betting this race:

 $1 Box Trifecta – 3,4,5,8 = $24

$1 Box Exacta – 3,4,5 = $6