Kentucky Derby 2023

Churchill Downs  – May  6th, 2023
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $3,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface - Dirt 

1 – Hit Show 2 – Verifying 3 – Two Phil’s 4 – Confidence Game 5 – Tapit Trice 6 – Kingsbarns 7 – Reincarnate 8 –  Mage 9 –  Skinner 10 –  Practical Move

11 – Disarm 12 – Jace’s Road 13 – Sun Thunder 14 – Angel of Empire 15 – Forte 16 – Raise Cain 17 – Derma Sotogake 18 – Rocket Can 19 – Lord Miles 20 – Continuar 21 - Cyclone Mischief 22 - Mandarin Hero 23- King Russell

I’ll begin with the Morning Line Favorite (3-1)  #15 Forte – I believe this horse has a legitimate chance to become only the 2^nd horse in history (following American Phoaroh) to win the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and the Triple Crown – the Kentucky Derby is, in my humble opinion, his to lose.

Forte has won 6 out of 7 lifetime races, including four Grade I Stakes races and a Grade II stakes race. His only "non-win" was in July 2022.

Forte runs with the consistency of a computer simulation – He breaks well, he runs in traffic with poise and he closes like a modish bad boss from Glengarry Glen Ross!

He will find his spot near the top of the pack for most of the race and then turn it on for the win once he hits the final stretch. 

He deserves to be the favorite – he has a solid post position and the leading Rider in the US - Irad Ortiz, Jr. (who has never won a Kentucky Derby).

For a look at how Forte runs, here's the Florida Derby (including #8 Mage and #21 (AE) Cyclone Mischief.

 

The next favorite is #5 Tapit Thrice currently set at 5-1 – (when I say his name it makes me think of the song Knock Three Times on the ceiling if you want me…..c’mon, Tony Orlando & Dawn?!?!)

You people don't know what you're missing!

I digress – Tapit Thrice has won 4 out of 5 lifetime races – but his only loss was his debut race. Tapit Thrice usually prefers to sit at the back of the pack and make a late bolt for the wire. 

If this horse can run his race and find a gap to burst through coming out of the turn – he "could" be plenty dangerous.

However here are my concerns with Tapit Thrice – I’m not a big fan of Blue Grass Stakes Winners to win the Kentucky Derby – they haven’t won a Kentucky Derby since 1991. And while he certainly has a solid post – I don’t think it’s going to help him much considering his racing style, I believe a post further out would have been preferable.

I think he’s going to get swallowed up in traffic early….and trapped behind a wall of horses late. His Jockey Luis Saez (2^nd best in the US) has also never “technically” won a Kentucky Derby – (he and Maximum Security were disqualified in 2019).

A look at Tapit Thrice and #2 Verifying in the Blue Grass Stakes:

#14 Angel of Empire is a morning line of (8-1) and his rider is Flavien Prat – who has one Kentucky Derby Victory (2019 -- the one Saez could have, should have had).  Angel of Empire has 4 lifetime wins in 6 attempts and is, most notably, the Arkansas Derby Winner.

Angel of Empire will be on the immediate inside post of the favorite Forte – and Flavien Prat could definitely use that to their advantage OR he could just ignore the favorite and run his best race.

Usually the outside horses will slowly mesh with the rest of the pack to save some ground before the first turn……I’ll be watching to see if Prat attempts to keep Forte on the outside as long as possible – maybe throw off the Favorite's game a little bit. Horse racing at its finest is a Chess Match being played at 40 mph.

Also Forte’s Rider Irad Ortiz could anticipate Prat using some strategy early and could pull Forte back early or see if they can cut Angel of Empire off before the 1^st turn……could be something – may be nothing at all - but at the beginning of the race....that's where I'll be focused.

Angel of Empire will likely attempt to keep close (and preferably inside) to Forte and “hope” they have the best gap on the inside to shoot when they hit the final stretch.

If Forte has a bad trip – I believe Angel of Empire has the best chance to win.

See Arkansas Derby – also including #23 (AE) King Russell and #7 Reincarnate:

There is a lot of buzz around # 17 Derma Sotogake the Japanese bred horse who won impressively at the UAE Derby (United Emirates). He has 4 wins out of a lifetime 8 races – but more to the point - he has won 3 out of his last 4.

There have been several years in the past when I’ve thought a UAE Derby winner might take home the Kentucky Roses (or at least challenge)…..however the highest finish we’ve seen in the past ten years has been 7^th place.

A Japanese Bred horse has never won a Kentucky Derby and neither has a UAE Derby winner - Derma Sotogake is both. 

 Currently I think this horse is going to be overbet – if he swings up to 20-1 – I’m more interested.

 UAE Derby – also includes #20 Continuar (JPN):

#2 Verifying  (15-1) has an ugly starting spot – but if this horse gets incredibly lucky he could own the rail and have a clear shot to the finish.  Will need a lot of luck to win – but could break the top 4.

#4 Confidence Game (20-1) – won the Rebel Stakes in February and hasn’t been heard from since. This is a pure long shot play – solid post and “who knows” what this horse can do at this point. Long layoffs are sometimes great…..usually not in the KY Derby….but this horse is a mystery at this point.

#6 Kingsbarns (12-1) the Louisiana Derby winner has a solid starting post and is undefeated in 3 starts. Despite the victory in the LA Derby – the pace was slow and it just didn’t impress. Flavien Prat was his jockey for the Louisiana Derby and he’s riding a different horse….so that should tell you something. Give me 30-1 here and I’d be more interested.

With this spot he could finish in the Top 4.

#8 Mage – (15-1) has only 3 lifetime races and has finished 2^nd, 4^th, and 1^st. Mage finished immediately behind the favorite Forte in the Arkansas Derby – I think he could be the most realistic "Longshot" of the bunch.

Our 38 Star Flag

My thinking is – that he has a very solid post position – there’s a chance Mage has a higher ceiling than some of the more experienced horses….we may have not seen this horse’s best race…..there’s also a chance that the lack of seasoning spooks Mage and he finishes in the back of the pack!

He’ll need a little luck as well – but if the others stall in traffic and he gets an opening – he could summon a victory in the Kentucky Derby. But I need these kinds of odds to keep my interest.

One important Kentucky Derby Trend to point out – Since 1882, only one horse (Justify = 2018) won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old…..that's 1882…meaning when the US only had 38 states!

 Kingbarns and Mage did NOT run as two year olds.

Entering the Kentucky Derby due to the many scratches is #22 Mandarin Hero - who finished 2nd behind Practical Move in the Santa Anita Derby. Out of lifetime 6 races this horse has 4 Wins and 2 Places. I think this horse has potential to land in the Top 4. This is a good horse that will be able to use this outside post to his advantage and may find a way to make you some money at 20-1.

Here’s how I see the race playing out –

#2 Verifying. #6 Kingsbarns and #7 Reincarnate will look to set the early pace.

Usually in these races one of the longshots goes on a suicidal pace…..and I usually know who it’s going to be….but this year I’m not sure......after a 10th glace I think it could be #7 Reincarnate and/or #21 Cyclone Mischief .... although that will be A LOT to ask from a horse posted at #21.

#14 Angel of Empire,  #17 Derma Sotogake and #22 Mandarin Hero will slowly blend into the pack and begin to work their ways towards the middle front.

#5 Tapit Trice – will likely be at the back of the pack…..perhaps even dead last until they reach the 2^nd turn.

If #2 Verifying can possess the rail and have an open avenue to the final stretch – he poses a threat…..BUT odds are he gets swallowed up by the pack – and can’t find a way out, until it’s too late.

#6 Kingsbarns – I think he has a better shot at placing himself in the perfect spot – but I think the more talented horses will push him and he’ll fade. I think likely coming out of the final turn is where the King runs out of steam.

#14 Angel of Empire  - if he can make the best move coming out of the final turn, either the perfect gap to burst through or making his way wide, but not having to go as wide as Derma Sotogake or Tapit Trice I now (after 5 scratches think it could be his race to lose).

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
has scratched from the 
149th KY Derby.
 

#17 Derma Sotogake – I've had a change of heart with this horse - primarily because I believe his post position has improved with so many scratches in this race. I don't trust this horse to win the race - but could DEFINITELY be a top 3 horse.

Finally #5 Tapit Trice – I’m just not a fan of a Bluegrass Stakes winner AND a late charging horse in the Kentucky Derby. I think he falls to the back of the pack – and makes a huge sweeping outside charge at the end and then he fades.

His Jockey is one of the best and may have Tapit Trice weave through traffic and find an inside hole to punch and I could be looking at having a big swing and a miss here….but I’m going to trust what I’ve seen over the past two decades. My gut tells me Tapit Trice comes out flat and finishes closer to 6th.

Closing Speed likes:  Angel of Empire, Mage, Mandarin Hero

History advices to toss out Kingsbarn, Mage, Tapit Trice, Derma Sotogake and Mandarin Hero as possible winners...however with so many great horses suddenly scratched it's very possible we see History "made" today or at least a very RARE winner from an unexpected Prep Race. 

Good Luck everyone.

If I’m betting $20 to $24 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box (with favorites): 5, 8, 14, 17 = $24

$1 Trifecta Box (The Bold call): 8,22, 14, 4, = $24

$1 Exacta Box: 17,14,22,8,5 = $20

Longshots:

$5 Win/Place – #17 = $10

$2 Across the Board - #4 – Confidence Game = $6
$2 Across the Board #2 – Verifying = $6
$2 Across the Board #22 – Mandarin Hero = $6