Belmont Stakes - 2024

 SARATOGA
RACE 12 - 6:41 PM
Belmont S. (Grade I)
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One and one 1/4 Miles
Surface – Dirt

1 – Seize the Grey
2 – Resilience                           
3 – Mystik Dan
4 – The Wine Steward                                   
5 – Antiquarian   
6 – Dornoch                           
7 – Protective
8 – Honor Marie
9 – Sierra Leone
10 – Mindframe

For the few of us that will follow the Belmont Stakes without a Triple Crown on the line – the 2024 Belmont offers a few unique twists.

Let's set out on Wednesday for a Picnic
at Jerome Park for Saturday's Belmont Stakes
I believe they've begun calling this
area the Bronx.

 

First it’s at Saratoga Race Track (instead of at Belmont) – Saratoga marks the Fourth Race Track that the Belmont Stakes have been held at since the first one in 1867 – however all of the Belmont Stakes since 1905 have been at Belmont Park, until 2024.

Traditionally the Belmont Stakes is 1 ½ miles --- this year it will be shortened to the same distance as the Kentucky Derby 1 ¼ miles.

The next bit of interest is that in recent years, it’s not often you have separate winners in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and both decide to continue racing in the Belmont.

 Let’s begin with the Preakness Winner - #1 Seize the Grey. Seize the Grey may have caught an early break in the Preakness as the horse to his immediate right (Just Steel) angled to the right coming out of the gate and allowed Seize the Grey ample space to maneuver early.

Seize the Grey took the early lead and never relinquished it. His trip was impressive especially considering it was a muddy track and he remained unfazed. Rider Jaime Torres is back aboard and together they’ve produced back to back trips to the Winner’s Circle.

Seize the Grey is a surprising 8-1 (the fourth favorite) in this race. Seize the Grey has raced twice at Saratoga (2023) and has a Win and a Show at this track. I appreciate that this horse has an unfortunate starting spot and may not be a fan of the distance --- but he’s shown that he likes this track….I wouldn’t count him out.

#2 Resilience – The Wood Memorial winner returns to New York – however his most recent outing was his 6^th place finish in the Kentucky Derby.  Junior Alvarado was his jockey in the KY Derby and returns for the Belmont. 

10-1 odds make Resilience an interesting horse to add to Trifecta or even an Exacta – he’ll have relatively fresh legs and could be a threat to break the top 3 in this field.

Also the #18th spot in the Kentucky Derby may have really worked against this horse - he likes being up front early and wasn't able to position himself there in the KY Derby. Could be a much different horse if he can take the lead early.

#3 Mystik Dan – Winner of the KY Derby and Second place finisher in the Preakness is being listed as the third favorite at 5-1 odds. In his last 4 races – Mystik Dan has two wins, a place and a show.

He and Seize the Grey will be the only two horses who ran twice in May – and considering that this is likely to be the longest races they’ll ever run in their lifetime, there’s some concern for fatigue.

Other than that – this horse has shown he knows how to finish in the money – very risky to drop him from any Exacta or Trifecta bets.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
prefers NOT to be associated
with the painful puns and
word play of this blog

 

 

#4 The Wine Steward – *** The first foal this Colt Sires – I would have to name Chardoneigh…how about Zinfoaldel? Rosehay all Day? Run for Rose’s?.....okay, I promise I’m done.

The New York Bred - The Wine Steward won his first 3 races, and placed in his next 3…..finishing immediately behind #5 Antiquarian in the Peter Pan Stakes on May 11^th. His last three rides were with Luis Saez who will be riding #6 Dornoch.

I love the horse’s name – and I like his post position – but the step up in competition I believe will keep this Wine Steward in the cellar…..and not the one with the good wine!

#5 Antiquarian – Fresh from a Peter Pan Stakes victory – this horse offers 2 wins and a place in 4 lifetime races – and the return of John Velazquez on board.

In March this horse finished 6^th in the Louisiana Derby (Behind #8 Honor Marie) and I don’t see anything about this horse that may indicate he’s a solid choice for the distance or against this competition.

#6 Dornoch – Finished 5^th against Sierra Leone in the Bluegrass Stakes and 10^th in the Kentucky Derby.  Luis Saez has been his Jockey 6 out of 7 lifetime starts.

** Defeated Sierra Leone back in December – but hasn’t been able to meet the challenge since then.

#7 Protective – Finished 3^rd behind Antiquarian and The Wine Steward in the Peter Pan Stakes and 3^rd behind Resilience in the Wood Memorial.

This will be Tyler Gaffalione’s first trip with this horse. He’s the 20-1 longshot for these reasons – I think he should be closer to 30-1 or even 50-1….however Gaffalione has been the Jockey for the favorite #9 Sierra Leone for his last three races…..there is some intrigue here.

#8 Honor Marie – Has Florent Geroux on board for the first time – finished 8^th in the Kentucky Derby after getting off to a rough start.

This horse has some late closing ability – There’s a slight chance this horse will take to this distance and finish in a 3^rd spot….but I’m not a buyer at 12-1…..(maybe 30-1).

#9 Sierra Leone – is the 9/5 favorite and the reason I have to now consider the Blue Grass Stakes worth considering.

Birds-eye Photo Finish in the
2024 Kentucky Derby

In 5 lifetime races this horse has 3 Wins and 2 Places – most recently finishing 2^nd behind Mystik Dan in the Kentucky Derby.

The “likely” reason this horse is the favorite is that – this horse closes late and his run in the Kentucky Derby gave some evidence that he’ll have the distance in him.

Also unlike the Derby he won’t have to go 10 wide in the final turn.

However – this will be Flavien Prat’s first race with this horse – Prat is one of the best (if not currently THE best) Jockey in the game….but he’s never won a Belmont Stakes.

The morning line believes this horse will benefit from having fewer horses to weave through coming out of the final turn and…..the morning line also believes that skipping the Preakness will give this horse the fresher legs for this race….and I see where the morning line is coming from – but 9/5 on a horse for “potential” and a new Jockey…… with all things considered I don’t love these odds.

#10 Mindframe – Speaking of Great Jockeys – Irad Ortiz Jr, has won two recent Belmont Stakes  (2022 / 2016) and in Mindframe’s 2 Lifetime races has two victories.

Ortiz has also been a top rider here at Saratoga for the last two years.

Mindframe has shown some remarkable potential…..but this will be his first opportunity to meet Grade 1 stakes winners.

I appreciate he’s got one of the best Jockeys in the nation on board – and I appreciate that this horse has won his last two races by 13 and 7 lengths….and he has fresher legs having not raced since May 4^th.

But 7/2 odds…..better than a Kentucky Derby Winner AND Preakness Winner (who beat the Kentucky Derby Winner)?

If you've never seen a horse "glide" before - watch Mindframe in his first race.

Here's how I see the race - IF Seize the Grey is able to break free from the 1 spot and own the rail for the entire race I think he could very well win this race......but he'll need the best release out of the gate he's ever had.

IF Resilience grabs the early lead and the rail - I think he finishes top 3 - but the question is, which one of these two horses will get the early jump?

Mystik Dan is also in an excellent spot to own the inside for the shorter trip -- and no matter how it shakes out for the first three - I expect Mindframe to stalk the leaders mid-pack, and for Sierra Leone to keep an eye on Mindframe.

I think Mystik Dan will come out of the final turn with the lead and eventually lose ground to Sierra Leone and then we'll see if Mindframe is as dominate as people believe or if Seize the Grey and Resilience can take one of the top spots.

Closing Speed likes: Sierra Leone / Mystik Dan / Resilience.

For the record I'm rooting for Seize the Grey - I'm a big fan of what MyRaceHorse is trying to accomplish.....and also I just like the horse - I think he and Mystik Dan are very close in talent and if they switched post positions I'd likely switch their spots.

From a betting perspective - rarely do I like Superfectas....but:

Superfecta Box: 1/2/3/9/10 -- (30 cents will cost a total of $36).

Trifecta Box: 1/2/3/9/10 - (50 cents will cost a total of $30)

Seize the Grey 6/1 odds or higher - I'd put $5 / $10 to win
Resilience 10/1 odds or higher - $5 Win or Place
Mystik Dan 6/1 odds or higher - $5 / $10 to win
Mindframe 10/1 odds or higher - $5 / $10 to win

2024 Preakness Stakes

Pimlico Race Track..
RACE 13 – 7:01 PM
Preakness S. (Grade I)
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One And 3/16ths  Mile
Surface – Dirt

1 – Mugatu
2 – Uncle Heavy                                                              
3 –Catching Freedom
4 – Muth                            
5 – Mystik Dan
6 – Seize the Grey                         
7 – Just Steel
8 – Tuscan Gold
9 - Imagination

I have to imagine that most people who follow horse racing believe the best three year old horses in the nation will be absent from The Preakness.

Fierceness, who faded in the Kentucky Derby – was the Florida Derby and Juvenile Champion.

Sierra Leone who missed by a nostril in the Kentucky Derby is out – although I’m hoping for a Belmont Stakes run – it looks like it would be a great distance for this horse.

And Arkansas Derby winner #4 Muth scratched.

Leaving us with a field of 8….and very little competition for Kentucky Derby Winner #5 Mystik Dan.

Let’s begin with #1 Mugatu – who’s last  victory was with Joe Bravo aboard in November 2023. He has two 3^rd place showings in his last 5 races…..and his best races are at One Mile….the extra 3/16ths are likely going to be too much for this horse. Outside of Bravo being back, not much to believe in here.

#2 Uncle Heavy – (Which sadly is NOT some kind of mash-up of Uncle Buck and the Sopranos) 

You woke up this morning...
Got a blue moon in your eyes

 – he switches to Irad Ortiz for his first new jockey in 5 Lifetime races – and he does have 3 wins in 5 attempts. He last raced  April 6^th, finishing 5^th against lack luster talent, but he may have some fresher legs coming into this race. He hasn’t raced against much talent….but at 20-1, in the rain, he may be worth a thought in this one…..but only if the odds are good!

 #4 Catching Freedom – The Louisiana Derby winner  finished 4^th behind Mystik Dan in the Kentucky Derby….and is the next closest finisher to participate in both races. His Jockey Flavien Prat is one of the best in the business and they were gaining some ground in the final furlongs at Twin Spires. He’s the second favorite and could be the one to steal a victory from Mystik Dan.

#5 Mystik Dan – Kenneth McPeek has been a GREAT Trainer this year and I’m certainly happy that he’s found major success and Brian Hernandez returns as Mystik Dan's rider – having ridden this horse 6 of his 7 races and his last three straight.

Mystik Dan had the perfect ride in the Kentucky Derby….you really can’t write it up better that that. Coming out of the three hole this horse found enough space to take the rail early and wait for the final turn to open up. Coming out of the turn Mystik Dan stuck to the rail and charged up the final furlongs with nothing in front of him -- He received JUST the luck he needed as Fierceness faded, and Sierra Leone didn’t have enough time to catch up.

 
Part of the problem of having confidence in this horse is the “luck” part.  

In March he finished 3^rd behind Muth and #7 Just Steel.

In Februrary he beat Just Steel in a Mile 1/16^th.

In January he finished 5^th behind Catching Freedom and Just Steel.

In the Kentucky Derby this horse proved that he could win at this distance and had the discipline and nerve to take the rail and wait for his moment…….OR (like his other races) is this horse about to regress?

I’m not sure he should be sitting at 5/2 odds.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
enjoys a positive affirmation
with a play on words!
Seize the Grey indeed!

#6 Seize the Grey – Rider Jaime Torres returns after a successful stakes race on Kentucky Derby Day. Out of 9 races this horse has 3 Wins and 3 Shows – finished a very disappointing 7^th in Keeneland against Sierra Leone and Just a Touch. I wish this horse had fresher legs…as he also raced just two weeks ago – but I think 15-1 are good odds for this horse. Don’t know that he’s got a win in him here, but like his chance to make the top 3.

#7 Just Steel – This horse has had 12 Lifetime races and earned 2 Wins, 4 Places, 1 Show…..and also finished 17^th in the Kentucky Derby.  Just Steel offered up the early speed in the last race and will likely be at the top to begin this race as well. Again, not fresh legs here and really faded in his last race….the intriguing part to me is that in his last 5 races Just Steel has finished 2^nd in three of those races and out of the money in the other two.

This horse finished immediately behind Muth in March (but ahead of Mystik Dan), behind Mystik Dan in February, and behind Catching Freedom in January.

#8 Tuscan Gold – Only three lifetime races and two in 2024 – finished 3^rd in March behind Catching Freedom and comes in with very fresh legs and Tyler Gaffailione on board.  A little bit of an unknown factor here. Watch his odds.

#9 Imagination – Out of 6 Lifetime races this horse has 2 Wins and 4 Places. After winning the San Felipe in Santa Anita, Imagination finished 2^nd in the Santa Anita Derby. This is another horse with Fresh legs.

I don’t think Mugatu or Uncle Heavy have much to offer in this race – although if it’s a sloppy track it could be a weird race day…..but still I’m knocking these two out of contention.

I think Catching Freedom with Flavien Prat are going to be able to position themselves well with Mystik Dan……Mystik I believe will be looking to grab the inside again....we'll see if Catching Freedom blocks him from the rail.

It will be interesting if Just Steel decides to just run with Mystik Dan and not push the tempo – that being said I don’t love the change in Jockey for Just Steel – Rosario has had success with this horse, but it’s been more than a year.

Seize the Grey will likely also run towards the front of the pack – there’s a chance Seize the Grey and Just Steel fade due to a fast early speed…..and both of these horses have only had two weeks off.

Tuscan Gold is a mystery ---- I’d like better odds here.

Imagination may need the lead in this race and coming out of the 9^th spot in Mud isn’t selling me – BUT this horse is ONLY real contender that is coming in fresh.

My big questions
What the hell is Tuscan Gold going to do?
Will Seize the Grey ,  Just Steel and Imagination find themselves in an early speed battle and fade?
And will Mystik Dan be able to hold off a late charging Catching Freedom?

I’m rooting for Mystik Dan – but,

How many times did I mention Fresh Legs?
I'm like a ZZ Top Special Dance Mix!

Closing Speed likes:   

Catching Freedom, Mystik Dan, Tuscan Gold

*** If there's lots of SLOP- give me Imagination, Mystik Dan and Catching Freedom

$1 Box Trifecta – 3,5,7.9 = $24

$10 - #6 Seize the Grey to Win
$10 - #7 Just Steel to Win

 

Kentucky Derby 2024

Churchill Downs  – May  4th, 2024
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $5,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface - Dirt

 

1 – Dornoch 2 – Sierra Leone 3 – Mystik Dan 4 – Catching Freedom 5 – Catalytic 6 – Just Steel 7 – Honor Marie 8 –  Just a Touch 9 –  Encino 10 –  TO Password

11 – Forever Young 12 – Track Phantom 13 – West Saratoga 14 – Endlessly 15 – Domestic Product 16 – Grand Mo The First 17 – Fierceness 18 – Stronghold 19 – Resilience 20 –  Society Man 21 – Epic Ride 22 – Mugatu

I’ll begin with the Morning Line Favorite #17 Fierceness (5/2) – He is the Breeders Cup Juvenile Champion and Winner of the Florida Derby.

His Trainer Todd Pletcher has won Two Kentucky Derbies – His Jockey John Velazquez has won Three Kentucky Derbies – they won one of those Derbies together in 2017 with Always Dreaming (who was also a Florida Derby Winner).

Fierceness has a fantastic post position in this race.  Not to take anything away from this horse and this team…..but Bob Baffert and his horses also won’t be competing at the Kentucky Derby – so the competition is diminished. 

It’s absolutely his Derby to lose – the only question is – how will he handle the distance and could he come out flat – which is the same issue for all of the horses.

Also racing: #5 Catalytic, #16 Grand Mo The First

#2 Sierra Leone is the second current favorite (3-1) and is coming off of two straight trips to the Winners Circle at the Blue Grass Stakes and Risen Star Stakes. 

His Trainer Chad Brown has never won a KY Derby – but is one of the best in the business – Tyler Gaffalione also has never won a KY Derby – but is one of the most experienced Riders at Churchill Downs. 

One item of note Tyler Gaffalione won the Tampa Bay Derby with #15 Domestic Product – and obviously choose to continue with Sierra Leone. 

I don’t trust Blue Grass Stakes winners…..they normally don’t perform well in the KY Derby. 

I don’t like Sierra Leone’s Post Position – however because this horse naturally likes to run from deep in the back of the pack, I don’t think this Post Position hurts his chances to win as much as it would many of the other horses. 

I can see this horse having to give up a LOT of ground early….perhaps WAY to much for a horse like Fierceness, and not being able to break through the heavy traffic  coming out of the second turn. 

If this horse has to go 8 or 10 wide to make a late move – I don’t believe he’ll have the time to catch up for a win. 

I don’t like the odds for this horse – as I believe he is going to absolutely depend on a gap opening up late (but not TOO late) and giving him a shot to shoot the gap and run inside and steal a win. 

Lots of negatives here – could get pinned to the rail and swallowed up by the traffic early and never given a shot to break out…..if he can break away he’s very dangerous….but the other 19 Jockey’s know that as well.

Also Racing: #8 Just A Touch, #21 Epic Ride

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out in 1996!

#4 Catching Freedom is the next favorite (8/1) and current Louisiana Derby champion. 

He is trained by Brad Cox who is dominating at Churchill Downs and has won 2 Kentucky Derbies previously. His KY Derby victory in 2019 was with Flavien Prat aboard and so far has been Prat’s only KY Derby win. Cox and Prat reunite here with Catching Freedom. 

Not the best Post Position – as he may have trouble with traffic early AND  the Louisiana Derby hasn’t produced a Kentucky Derby Winner since 1996.....some might say this horse is just a Wannabe!!

Catching Freedom finished 3^rd behind Sierra Leone and #12 Track Phantom in the Risen Star Stakes….I don’t love the odds for this horse. 

Below are the horses I believe COULD SHOCK / UPSET:

#9 Just A Touch (10/1) – is also a Brad Cox Trained horse and is ridden by Florent Geroux who is ON FIRE at Churchill right now…..winning at about 31% -- these two won a KY Derby (Geroux’s only) in 2021.

Just A Touch was sired by Justify who is not only the only KY Derby winning Sire – but also the only Triple Crown winner as a Sire.

Has a great Post Position – HOWEVER this horse hasn’t had a victory since January – finished 2^nd in the Gotham and 2^nd against Sierra Leone at Blue Grass.

Justify had a lot of Flash in the Splash

#6 Just Steel (20/1) – also sired by Justify – with legend D Wayne Lucas as his trainer and Keith Asmussen as his rider.

The good news about this horse is that he’s seasoned – having 11 races in his young career – the bad news is he only has 2 wins. That last victory was at Churchill Downs in November.

 Excellent Post Position – he finished 2^nd in the Arkansas Derby…..maybe gets a break and gives us an upset?

 

#12 Track Phantom (20-1) – Ridden by Joel Rosario who had a KY Derby win in 2013 – and trained by Steven Asmussen.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
still can't believe
Natalie Portman and
Jar Jar Binks shared a screen!

 #9 Just A Touch and #12 Track Phantom could be the “early” speed in this race. 

Track Phantom had 3 straight wins at 1 1/16^th mile……but when the distance increased he hasn’t had the endurance to finish strong……falling to 2^nd place against Sierra Leone in the Risen Star and 4^th against Catching Freedom and Honor Marie. 

But on May the Fourth…..you have to ask if he could be a Phantom Menance?!?!

#18 Stronghold (20/1)– Winner of the Santa Anita Derby and Sunland Derby winner. 

I have been told I have a West Coast bias – but why is this horse going off at 20/1?? 

I recognize that his Trainer Philip D’Amato and Jockey Antonio Fresu don’t have a KY Derby victory on their resume….but this horse is right next to the favorite and has enough speed to stay towards the top of the pack. 

** If Fierceness comes out flat or fades…..I like this horse a LOT better than 8/1 Catching Freedom. 

Won’t be surprised if this horse comes in closer to 8/1 or 6/1 at the bell…..if you can get any better than 10/1 odds here – this could be a very good price.

#19 Resilience (20/1) – John R Velazquez rode this horse to victory in the Wood Memorial – but chose to stick with Fierceness for the KY Derby.

Junior Alvarado will be aboard – and Resilience will also ride closer to the top of the pack. 

Bill Mott is his trainer and won a KY Derby in 2019. 

Here’s the three scenrios I see happening – 

1^st Scenario

#17 Fierceness glides into position as they approach the first turn – he keeps pace or stalks the early leaders – he takes over after the first turn – he muscles out of the second turn and glides to victory. Sierra Leone “Maybe” makes a desperate attempt for 2^nd place or a Longshot holds him off because he hit traffic late.

2^nd Scenario

#2 Sierra Leone  - “manages” the first few steps of the race without getting swallowed up in traffic. Falls VERY far behind a hot pace – begins making his creep going into the second turn – as they swing out of the second turn - Tyler Gaffalione sees the perfect hole, gives Sierra Leone the signal and they shoot through a hole near the rail and charge past the fading early leaders including a wobbly Fierceness.

I think this horse will HAVE to have an inside gap – I’ve seen much better horses fail to go 8 to 12 wide to win the KY Derby. 

Granted if Scenario 2 happens  this writer than has to “own” that the Blue Grass Stakes have something to offer. 

3^rd Scenario

If you’re betting on this race and want to win big….this is YOUR Scenario.

Fierceness comes out flat…..or gets caught in an early speed trap and is absolutely gassed with 2 or 3 furlongs to go…..they have misjudged the pace or the distance and he’s fading.

Meanwhile Sierra Leone struggled in traffic early – has never found a space to run freely and is trapped behind traffic coming out of the final turn…..He’s not going to make it!

Both of these can happen – which would leave us with a relatively BIG UPSET as the only other option.

And that’s when I think having some money on #6 Just Steel,  #9 Just A Touch, #12 Track Phantom, #18 Stronghold, or #19 Resilience is the way to go.

Out of those 5 – I like Just a Touch and Stronghold the most.

Closing Speed likes: Fierceness, Just A Touch and Stronghold

If I’m betting $20 to $24 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box (with favorites): 2, 9, 17, 18 = $24

$1 Exacta Box : 2,17 w  6, 9, 12, 18, 19  = $10

Longshots:

$5 Win/Place – #9 = $10
$5 Win/ Place - #18 - $10

Good Luck and.....May the Fourth be with you!