Pimlico Race Track..
RACE 13 – 7:01 PM
Preakness S. (Grade I)
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One And 3/16ths Mile
Surface – Dirt
1 – Mugatu
2 – Uncle Heavy
3 –Catching Freedom
4 – Muth
5 – Mystik Dan
6 – Seize the Grey
7 – Just Steel
8 – Tuscan Gold
9 - Imagination
I have to imagine that most people who follow horse racing believe the best three year old horses in the nation will be absent from The Preakness.
Fierceness, who
faded in the Kentucky Derby – was the Florida Derby and Juvenile Champion.
Sierra Leone who missed by a nostril
in the Kentucky Derby is out – although I’m hoping for a Belmont Stakes run –
it looks like it would be a great distance for this horse.
And Arkansas Derby winner #4 Muth scratched.
Leaving us with a field of 8….and very little competition for Kentucky Derby
Winner #5 Mystik Dan.
Let’s begin with #1 Mugatu – who’s
last victory was with Joe Bravo aboard
in November 2023. He has two 3rd place showings in his last 5 races…..and
his best races are at One Mile….the extra 3/16ths are likely going to be too
much for this horse. Outside of Bravo being back, not much to believe in here.
#2 Uncle Heavy – (Which sadly is NOT some kind of mash-up of Uncle Buck and the Sopranos)
 | |
| You woke up this morning... Got a blue moon in your eyes |
#4 Catching Freedom – The Louisiana Derby winner finished 4th behind Mystik Dan in the Kentucky Derby….and is the next closest finisher to participate in both races. His Jockey Flavien Prat is one of the best in the business and they were gaining some ground in the final furlongs at Twin Spires. He’s the second favorite and could be the one to steal a victory from Mystik Dan.
#5 Mystik Dan – Kenneth McPeek has been a GREAT Trainer this year and I’m certainly happy that he’s found major success and Brian Hernandez returns as Mystik Dan's rider – having ridden this horse 6 of his 7 races and his last three straight.
Mystik Dan had the perfect ride in the Kentucky Derby….you really can’t write it up better that that. Coming out of the three hole this horse found enough space to take the rail early and wait for the final turn to open up. Coming out of the turn Mystik Dan stuck to the rail and charged up the final furlongs with nothing in front of him -- He received JUST the luck he needed as Fierceness faded, and Sierra Leone didn’t have enough time to catch up.
Part of the problem of having confidence in this horse is the “luck” part.
In March he finished 3rd behind Muth and #7 Just Steel.
In Februrary he beat Just Steel in a Mile 1/16th.
In January he finished 5th behind Catching Freedom and Just Steel.
In the Kentucky Derby this horse proved that he could win at this distance and had the discipline and nerve to take the rail and wait for his moment…….OR (like his other races) is this horse about to regress?
I’m not sure he should be sitting at 5/2 odds.
 | ||
| Strangely Sensitive Cheetah enjoys a positive affirmation with a play on words! Seize the Grey indeed! |
#7 Just Steel – This horse has had 12 Lifetime races and earned 2 Wins, 4 Places, 1 Show…..and also finished 17th in the Kentucky Derby. Just Steel offered up the early speed in the last race and will likely be at the top to begin this race as well. Again, not fresh legs here and really faded in his last race….the intriguing part to me is that in his last 5 races Just Steel has finished 2nd in three of those races and out of the money in the other two.
This horse finished immediately behind Muth in March (but ahead of Mystik Dan), behind Mystik Dan in February, and behind Catching Freedom in January.
#8 Tuscan Gold – Only three lifetime races and two in 2024 – finished 3rd in March behind Catching Freedom and comes in with very fresh legs and Tyler Gaffailione on board. A little bit of an unknown factor here. Watch his odds.
#9 Imagination – Out of 6 Lifetime races this horse has 2 Wins and 4 Places. After winning the San Felipe in Santa Anita, Imagination finished 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby. This is another horse with Fresh legs.
I don’t think Mugatu or Uncle Heavy have much to offer in this race – although if it’s a sloppy track it could be a weird race day…..but still I’m knocking these two out of contention.
I think Catching Freedom with Flavien Prat are going to be able to position themselves well with Mystik Dan……Mystik I believe will be looking to grab the inside again....we'll see if Catching Freedom blocks him from the rail.
It will be interesting if Just Steel decides to just run with Mystik Dan and not push the tempo – that being said I don’t love the change in Jockey for Just Steel – Rosario has had success with this horse, but it’s been more than a year.
Seize the Grey will likely also run towards the front of the pack – there’s a chance Seize the Grey and Just Steel fade due to a fast early speed…..and both of these horses have only had two weeks off.
Tuscan Gold is a mystery ---- I’d like better odds here.
Imagination may need the lead in this race and coming out of the 9th spot in Mud isn’t selling me – BUT this horse is ONLY real contender that is coming in fresh.
My big questions
What the hell is Tuscan Gold going to do?
Will Seize the Grey , Just Steel and Imagination
find themselves in an early speed battle and fade?
And will Mystik Dan be able to hold off a late charging Catching Freedom?
I’m rooting for Mystik Dan – but,
 |
| How many times did I mention Fresh Legs? I'm like a ZZ Top Special Dance Mix! |
Catching Freedom, Mystik Dan, Tuscan Gold
*** If there's lots of SLOP- give me Imagination, Mystik Dan and Catching Freedom
$1 Box Trifecta – 3,5,7.9 = $24
$10 - #6 Seize the Grey to Win
$10 - #7 Just Steel to Win
No comments:
Post a Comment