Churchill Downs –
May 4th, 2024
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $5,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface - Dirt
|
1 – Dornoch 2 – Sierra Leone 3 – Mystik Dan 4 – Catching Freedom 5 – Catalytic 6 – Just Steel 7 – Honor Marie 8 – Just a Touch 9 – 10 – TO Password |
11 – Forever Young 12 – Track Phantom 13 – West Saratoga 14 – Endlessly 15 – Domestic Product 16 – Grand Mo The First 17 – Fierceness 18 – Stronghold 19 – Resilience 20 – Society Man 21 – Epic Ride 22 – Mugatu |
His Trainer Todd Pletcher has won Two Kentucky Derbies – His Jockey John Velazquez has won Three Kentucky Derbies – they won one of those Derbies together in 2017 with Always Dreaming (who was also a Florida Derby Winner).
Fierceness has a fantastic post position in this race. Not to take anything away from this horse and this team…..but Bob Baffert and his horses also won’t be competing at the Kentucky Derby – so the competition is diminished.
It’s absolutely his Derby to
lose – the only question is – how will he handle the distance and could he come
out flat – which is the same issue for all of the horses.
Also racing: #5 Catalytic, #16 Grand Mo The First
#2 Sierra Leone is the second current favorite (3-1) and is coming off of two straight trips to the Winners Circle at the Blue Grass Stakes and Risen Star Stakes.
His Trainer Chad Brown has never won a KY Derby – but is one of the best in the business – Tyler Gaffalione also has never won a KY Derby – but is one of the most experienced Riders at Churchill Downs.
One item of note Tyler Gaffalione won the Tampa Bay Derby with #15 Domestic Product – and obviously choose to continue with Sierra Leone.
I don’t trust Blue Grass Stakes winners…..they normally don’t perform well in the KY Derby.
I don’t like Sierra Leone’s Post Position – however because this horse naturally likes to run from deep in the back of the pack, I don’t think this Post Position hurts his chances to win as much as it would many of the other horses.
I can see this horse having to give up a LOT of ground early….perhaps WAY to much for a horse like Fierceness, and not being able to break through the heavy traffic coming out of the second turn.
If this horse has to go 8 or 10 wide to make a late move – I don’t believe he’ll have the time to catch up for a win.
I don’t like the odds for this horse – as I believe he is going to absolutely depend on a gap opening up late (but not TOO late) and giving him a shot to shoot the gap and run inside and steal a win.
Lots of negatives here – could get
pinned to the rail and swallowed up by the traffic early and never given a shot
to break out…..if he can break away he’s very dangerous….but the other 19
Jockey’s know that as well.
Also Racing: #8 Just A Touch, #21 Epic Ride
 |
| Bonus Points if you knew this album came out in 1996! |
He is trained by Brad Cox who is dominating at Churchill Downs and has won 2 Kentucky Derbies previously. His KY Derby victory in 2019 was with Flavien Prat aboard and so far has been Prat’s only KY Derby win. Cox and Prat reunite here with Catching Freedom.
Not the best Post Position – as he may have trouble with traffic early AND the Louisiana Derby hasn’t produced a Kentucky Derby Winner since 1996.....some might say this horse is just a Wannabe!!
Catching Freedom finished 3rd behind Sierra Leone and #12 Track Phantom in the Risen Star Stakes….I don’t love the odds for this horse.
Below are the horses I believe COULD SHOCK / UPSET:
#9 Just A Touch (10/1) – is also a Brad Cox Trained horse and is ridden by Florent Geroux who is ON FIRE at Churchill right now…..winning at about 31% -- these two won a KY Derby (Geroux’s only) in 2021.
Just A Touch was sired by Justify who is not only the only KY Derby winning Sire – but also the only Triple Crown winner as a Sire.
Has a great Post Position – HOWEVER this horse hasn’t had a victory since January – finished 2nd in the Gotham and 2nd against Sierra Leone at Blue Grass.
 |
| Justify had a lot of Flash in the Splash |
#12 Track Phantom (20-1) – Ridden by Joel Rosario who had a KY Derby win in 2013 – and trained by Steven Asmussen.
 |
| Strangely Sensitive Cheetah still can't believe Natalie Portman and Jar Jar Binks shared a screen! |
Track Phantom had 3 straight wins at 1 1/16th mile……but when the distance increased he hasn’t had the endurance to finish strong……falling to 2nd place against Sierra Leone in the Risen Star and 4th against Catching Freedom and Honor Marie.
But on May the Fourth…..you
have to ask if he could be a Phantom Menance?!?!
#18 Stronghold (20/1)– Winner of the Santa Anita Derby and Sunland Derby winner.
I have been told I have a West Coast bias – but why is this horse going off at 20/1??
I recognize that his Trainer Philip D’Amato and Jockey Antonio Fresu don’t have a KY Derby victory on their resume….but this horse is right next to the favorite and has enough speed to stay towards the top of the pack.
** If Fierceness comes out flat or fades…..I like this horse a LOT better than 8/1 Catching Freedom.
Won’t be surprised if this
horse comes in closer to 8/1 or 6/1 at the bell…..if you can get any better
than 10/1 odds here – this could be a very good price.
#19 Resilience (20/1) – John R Velazquez rode this horse to victory in the Wood Memorial – but chose to stick with Fierceness for the KY Derby.
Junior Alvarado will be aboard – and Resilience will also ride closer to the top of the pack.
Bill Mott is his trainer and won a KY Derby in 2019.
Here’s the three scenrios I see happening –
1st Scenario
#17 Fierceness glides into position as they approach the first turn – he keeps pace or stalks the early leaders – he takes over after the first turn – he muscles out of the second turn and glides to victory. Sierra Leone “Maybe” makes a desperate attempt for 2nd place or a Longshot holds him off because he hit traffic late.
2nd Scenario
#2 Sierra Leone - “manages” the first few steps of the race without getting swallowed up in traffic. Falls VERY far behind a hot pace – begins making his creep going into the second turn – as they swing out of the second turn - Tyler Gaffalione sees the perfect hole, gives Sierra Leone the signal and they shoot through a hole near the rail and charge past the fading early leaders including a wobbly Fierceness.
I think this horse will HAVE to have an inside gap – I’ve seen much better horses fail to go 8 to 12 wide to win the KY Derby.
Granted if Scenario 2 happens this writer than has to “own” that the Blue Grass Stakes have something to offer.
3rd Scenario
If you’re betting on this race and want to win big….this is YOUR Scenario.
Fierceness comes out flat…..or gets caught in an early speed trap and is absolutely gassed with 2 or 3 furlongs to go…..they have misjudged the pace or the distance and he’s fading.
Meanwhile Sierra Leone struggled in traffic early – has never found a space to run freely and is trapped behind traffic coming out of the final turn…..He’s not going to make it!
Both of these can happen – which would leave us with a relatively BIG UPSET as the only other option.
And that’s when I think having some money on #6 Just Steel, #9 Just A Touch, #12 Track Phantom, #18 Stronghold, or #19 Resilience is the way to go.
Out of those 5 – I like Just a Touch and Stronghold the most.
Closing Speed likes: Fierceness, Just A Touch and Stronghold
If I’m betting $20 to $24 on this race I like:
$1 Trifecta Box (with favorites): 2, 9, 17, 18 = $24
$1 Exacta Box : 2,17 w 6, 9, 12, 18, 19 = $10
Longshots:
$5 Win/Place – #9 = $10
$5 Win/ Place - #18 - $10
Good Luck and.....May the Fourth be with you!
Mystic Dan not mentioned
ReplyDelete