2013 Wood Memorial Stakes

AQUEDUCT - April 06, 2013

Race 11 - 6:28 PM

Wood Memorial S.   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,000,000

Distance - One And One Eighth Miles

1 – Chrisandthecapper

2 –Normandy Invasion

3 – Quinzieme Monarque

4 – Elnaawi

5 – Vyjack

6 – Mr Palmer

7 – Always in a Tiz

8 - Verrazano

9 - Go Get the Basil

10 – Freedom Child

Ring A Ding Ding Baby....

This Saturday Race 11 features a kind of turf war between two brilliant young Thoroughbreds as #8 Verrazano invades #5 Vyjack’s home course (Aqueduct) for the title of best of the Empire State….and as the song goes if you can make it here you can make it anywhere!

Both horses will enter the race undefeated – Verrazano was absolutely scary in his last trip the Tampa Bay Derby. In fact he was so superior his morning line is currently 4/5 odds. He’s won his first three victories……however my one concern is that this will be his first race out of Florida.

Verrazano's Last Race:

By contrast I like that Vyjack may have a bit of a home field advantage in this race – as all four of his victories have been here at Aqueduct. I tend to lean towards a horse who hasn’t had to travel and has already shown he’s comfortable with the track. If he stays at 4/1 odds…..he may be a bargain.

The best part about this race is that neither of these stellar horses (Verrazano / Vyjack) have really been tested – and that streak (along with at least one of their undefeated streaks) will come to an end this Saturday.

#2 Normandy Invasion is currently slated as the third favorite at 5/1 odds --- he showed a lot of promise last November here at Aqueduct….but his most recent outing was a very disappointing 5^th place in the Risen Star Stakes (in Louisiana).  He’s the kind of horse that could take the next big step in his development, and he may find some comfort at Aqueduct where he was once successful. It would be a modest upset if he won – but I don’t think it’s out of the question – more likely he’s sneaks into the 2^nd spot at best.

Unless weather becomes a real factor in this race…..I think the rest of the field is really out classed in this one……however I do have

Two Longshot Alerts!!!

And they are-

#6 Mr. Palmer  going off at 12-1 – he’s won his last two races, the last race at this distance 1 1/8 th miles – which is a distance neither of the two favorites have attempted yet.

Now what if I told you there was a 30-1 long shot who also recently won his last race at 1 1/8^th miles – and also finished 2^nd behind recent Florida Derby winner Orb and ahead of 3^rd place Revolutionary (recent winner of the Louisiana  Derby)?

That current 30-1 horse would be #10 Freedom Child.

Sure it’s been since last November when he split the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby winners, but at this price I think he’s absolutely worth at least $2 at the betting booth.

In closing – after watching Verrazano’s last race it’s difficult to believe that anybody other than Vyjack is going to challenge this horse…..this is one of those weird races where –

I want Verrazano to win big with the idea that he’s the one to beat in the KY Derby.

I want Vyjack to win because I think there’s merit in being the best at a certain track.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
knows that when he writes
"Fondness"
The writer means he can't wait
to gloat about the one
longshot he got right.

And what can I say I have a  fondness for the underdog / long shot!

But my pick is relatively safe

Closing Speed likes: 8,5,10

If I’m betting $18 here’s who I like

$1 Trifecta Box – 5,8,10 = $6

$1 Exacta – 5/8 w 2/6/7/10 = $8

$2 Win - #6

$2 Win - #10

Gotham Stakes 2013

AQUEDUCT - March 02, 2013

Race 10 - 5:02 PM

Gotham S. (Grade III)

Purse - $400,000

Distance - One And One Sixteenth Miles

1 – Transparent

1A – Now and Then

2 – Champion Boy

3 – Escapefromreality

4 – One Pass

5 – Amerigo Vespucci

6 – Siete De Oros

7 – Vyjack

8- Elnaawi

9- Sky Captain

10 – West Hills Giant

11 – Overanalyze

For four of these horses this will be a rematch of the Withers Stakes from 28 days ago – where Escapefromreality finished 2^nd, immediately (and conveniently for me) followed by Siete De Oros, Amerigo Vespucci and finishing 5^th Champion Boy.

The winner of the Withers Stakes, Revolutionary – will be sitting this one out – but I highly recommend watching Revolutionary muscle through the last two furlongs and willing his way to the Winner’s Circle in this video: 

With his late running style and courage in the final stretch he’s certainly on my radar leading up to the KY Derby.

This is also a rematch of the January 5^th - Jerome Handicap – where #7 Vyjack defeated Siete De Oros and Amerigo Vespucci.

 Vyjack enters this race undefeated in three outings – however he also enters this race as the second morning line favorite – going off at 3/1.

#11 Overanalyze is the (slight) morning line favorite at 5/2 --- however he has been off for 98 days since his victory in the Remsen Stakes, where he narrowly defeated Normandy Invasion. The question you have to ask yourself as bettor is: Will this horse be better for having fresh legs and three months training since we last saw him – or – will he come out rusty?

In my opinion the Gotham boils down to the potential that Overanalyze brings to this race versus Vyjack’s recent and steady success – however there are a few horses that I believe could surprise this Saturday.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
still thinks Eartha Kitt
was the best Catwoman

#8 Elnaawi (Son of Former Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense) has only two races on his resume, but won his last outing and his breeding suggests distance may not be a factor for this horse. Going off as a bit of a mystery and at 8/1 in this race makes him intriguing.

#4 Ore Pass has won two out of his career three races and he may be the early leader in this race. He hasn’t been tested at this distance – and I think he’ll fade a few furlongs short….but I believe he’s also possible of pulling out a long shot upset here, especially if the track is muddy – 12/1 has me thinking.

Two horses that concern me are #1a Now and Then who enters this race with only one 6 furlong race to his credit – (however it was a victory) and #9 Sky Captain who was a fall time favorite with fans but has finished a disappointing 5^th and 2^nd in his last two races.

Sky Captain concerns me because I believe this horse could have a lot of talent and is just looking for the right race to flash his potential – at 8/1 odds he has my attention.

In closing, Vyjack is the horse to beat in this race --- and if weather isn’t a factor I don’t see this horse finishing any worse than 3^rd. If the track is sloppy they may still run the horse to give him a feel of running in the beginning of the month – but they may not push him to win on a muddy track – that goes for any Kentucky Derby hopeful.

I believe Overanalyze is a bit of a risk in this race for the odds they’re giving – but he could be the most talented horse in the field.  

I also can’t help but bite on the “mystery” of Elnaawi –

Closing Speed likes:  7,8,11

I believe the best option in this race is to take one of the favorites to win followed by a longshot.

Exacta $1 – 7,11 with 3,6,8,9 = $8