2013 Florida Derby

GULFSTREAM PARK - March 30, 2013

Race 12 - 6:19 PM

Besilu Stables Florida Derby   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,000,000

Distance - One And One Eighth Miles

I believe that the horse that wins the Florida Derby will be the Kentucky Derby favorite – three extremely talented horses make this race the most competitive race (outside of a few past KY Derbies) that I can remember.

#3  - Itsmyluckyday – ran so well in his last outing, The Holy Bull Stakes, that he broke a track record. If this horse can be consistent with those kinds of races – he’ll not only be the best three year old in the country…he’ll be the best three year old horse we’ve seen in a long time.

However he hasn’t always been consistent – in his last four races he’s won the last two, but finished 4^th and 6^th in the two races previously.  It’s very difficult to tell with young horses – because sometimes the light bulb just “comes on” and they make a jump in  how well they race…..but this horse could also be a BOOM or BUST kind of horse that will occasionally just not show up for a race.

I do think he’ll show up today – he’s got a great post position and he seems to like Gulfstream Park.

#1  -  Shanghai Bobby – in contrast to Itsmyluckyday – Shanghai Bobby had won his first five races including the Breeders Cup Juvenile. His only loss was against Itsmyluckyday in the Holy Bull and he will be looking for revenge in the Florida Derby.

Shanghai will have the rail in this race and if he can make the most of it he may be able to control the tempo and benefit from the shorter trip. Then again he could get cut off early, get bogged down in traffic before the first turn -- and it could be the difference between finishing 1st or finishing 4th.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
wonders why it's called
Ducking someone ??
Are Ducks notorious chickens?

I really like this horse – and I like that his ownership is putting him up in a rematch against the only horse he’s ever lost too…..they ain’t ducking nobody. Consider that his management could have shipped this horse to Santa Anita (where they won the Breeders Cup) and faced significantly lesser talent.

Also kudos to the Shanghai Bobby team for making the most out of twitter – this sport needs all the passion and good PR it can get!

  

And finally let’s not forget about #6 Orb – who has won three straight races including the Fountain of Youth stakes. His last two victories were here at Gulfstream Park and it wouldn’t surprise me if he were the sharpest coming into this race.

Itsmyluckyday and Shanghai haven’t raced for almost 2 months – Orb last ran about a month ago.

Shanghai Bobby & Orb will both hover around the same odds – I prefer Shanghai because he’s a Champion kind of horse – who will consistently run well, and has been doing it since he first hit the track. He’s seen the best horses and with the exception of Itsmyluckyday – beaten them all.

Orb – may be a horse on the rise, and as I stated – he may be the sharpest out of the three. However in my opinion he’ll need a little help to beat Luckyday and Shaghai.

Difficult to imagine any horse defeating Itsmyluckyday after his Holy Bull Performance. He’ll deservedly go off as the favorite in this race – and if he wins this race by a few lengths --- we could be watching something very special here.

If he finishes fourth…..he’ll make betting this horse in the Kentucky Derby,  a nightmare.

I don’t think the other 7 horses have a chance for an upset victory – but I do think #8 Merit Man or #7 Indy’s Illusion could sneak into the top three with a lot of help.

I’m rooting for Shanghai Bobby --- but I think Itsmyluckyday will be too tough to beat here.

This really isn’t a good race to bet --- just sit back and enjoy.