Kentucky Derby 2019

Churchill Downs  – May 4^th, 2019

Race 12 - 6:50 PM (EST)

Kentucky Derby

Purse - $3,000,000

Distance - One And One Quarter Miles

Surface - Dirt

1 – War of Will 2 – Tax 3 – By My Standards 4 – Gray Magician 5 – Improbable 6 – Vekoma 7 – Maximum Security 8 – Tacitus 9 –  Plus Que Parfait 10 – Cutting Humor

11 – Haikal (SCR) 12 – Omaha Beach (SCR) 13 – Code of Honor 14 –Win Win Win 15 – Master Fencer 16 – Game Winner 17 – Roadster 18 – Long Range Toddy 19 – Spinoff 20 – Country House 21 – (AE)  Bodexpress

 There have been so many years in the past where I would begin my Kentucky Derby analysis by writing that “If you’re looking for one horse to win the Triple Crown it will be…….”

And this year I certainly would have stated that “That Horse” would be #12 Omaha Beach – Omaha Beach has a beautiful stride --- smooth like silk – and he runs with a mature presence and a lot of patience……on top of that – Omaha Beach closes well, he has raced and beaten substantial talent……AND.....He also won’t be joining us for the Kentucky Derby due to a Throat issue…..so there goes a full page I had written about his prospects.

 So with Omaha Beach – it leaves us with a fairly open 145th Kentucky Derby.

I’ll start by writing that **If the track is muddy (which it likely will be) – the race could open up even more and it wouldn’t surprise me if a long shot snuck into the top three……it would still surprise me if a horse over 20-1 won it……with the exception of one horse….which I’ll get too.

Let’s start with the horse that I think “should” be the favorite:

#5 – Improbable – This horse recently finished 2^nd on a muddy track going hoof to hoof with Omaha Beach. This horse may have only lost his last race because he took an outside position on Omaha Beach going into and coming out of the Second Turn – he lost ground, and Omaha Beach was way too good to lose ground too.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
thinks it's fair to be fussy
when you're in a gate, in the mud
and have a guy sitting on you.

With a Better Trip – No Omaha Beach in sight – and experience on a muddy track – what’s not to like??

**Well here’s the problem – Improbable also finished 2^nd in the Rebel Stakes against #18 Long Range Toddy (30-1) – Improbable was VERY fussy as they loaded him into the gate in his last race….and came close to getting scratched.

I think he’s the best horse left in this group (current odds makers disagree), but I don’t love that he hasn’t won a race since December.

Arkansas Derby:

#6 Vekoma – currently sits at 15-1 odds….this is the relative long shot that worries me. If Vekoma shoots up above 20-1….I’m definitely in for a few bucks….the reason I like this horse is that – despite his very odd stride (who remembers Phoebe running in the park in the show “Friends”) – 

Vekoma won the Bluegrass Stakes convincingly.

Vekoma flashed enough early speed that he will be able to stay ahead of the Kentucky Derby Wall of horses – he has a solid post position and if Improbable decides to take an early lead, could stalk the leader into the final turn.

I LOVE that this horse could hit the first turn only going about two or three wide and have clear sailing for most of the race….very enticing.

The thing I don’t love about Vekoma (outside of that ugly stride….make that ugly and FAST stride) is that he won the Bluegrass Stakes.

For years I’ve watched horses do very well in this race and then do nothing for the big dance – almost like it’s built purposefully to mess with you.

Bluegrass Stakes: 

 #7 Maximum Security – (8/1) in my opinion, this horse is sliding under the radar right now – undefeated in all of his starts – he executed a fantastic game plan for the Florida Derby and is in the exact same post position for the KY Derby.

The only downside I see is that he enjoyed a “casual” pace in the Florida Derby – and that race may have lined up very well for him…….I feel this could be the horse more people should be talking about.

 #8 Tacitus – Wood Memorial Winner – (8/1)  -- Tacitus will likely sit back in the middle of the pack, but also try to keep in front of what will be a wall of horses. Tacitus will likely hope that his “inside” competition will wear each other out early and he can storm by in the final furlongs.

I like this horse….I usually lean towards horses who can create early leads in the KY Derby…especially in the slop – he could be the one to steal it in the final furlongs going along the rail or breaking out wide.

 #16 Game Winner and #17 Roadster – Game Winner is the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Winner, who just finished 2^nd behind Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby.

In the Kentucky Derby – it often helps to start the race this far outside – Quality horses can avoid getting trapped early and pick the perfect spot to move inside going into the first turn.

Both of these horses may look to run along with Tacitus – towards the front middle of the pack.

**Perhaps it’s because I was “So” sold on Omaha Beach – that I’m overlooking these two horses (who basically are the two favorites) – but I just don’t see it with these two.

Game Winner has two recent losses (against Roadster and Omaha Beach) – and Roadster is a tad untested for me.

And (for good or bad) I lean towards early speed in this race – and Roadster will be looking to come in late.

Santa Anita Derby:

Here’s how I see the race unfolding -- #2 Tax will look to claim the early lead…..he very well may not make it and get swallowed up and never be heard from again…..but I think he’ll make it.

Tax will look to set up the pace – Improbable, Vekoma and Maximum Security will be nearby.

One of these horses may pull back a little, looking to go inside before the second turn – depends on how muddy it is.

Further back will likely be Tacitus, Game Winner and Roadster --- there is a chance Game Winner and Roadster “won’t” find a comfortable spot going into the first turn and could lose a LOT of ground and energy going FAR wide – it’s doubtful but an early surprise could essentially take these two horses out of the mix.

Also – more than likely some Long Shot (or Long Shots) will make an early suicide run – meaning they won’t have the endurance late to make up for their early speed…….usually that long shot looks like they’re running in tar around the middle of the second turn.

Coming out of the final turn – I expect Tax (and the unnamed Long Shot) will begin giving up ground.

Improbable will take command – Vekoma…….is my wild card – he could be neck and neck with the leader….he may be in 10^th place by now……Maximum Security will challenge as well.

**IF these three are worn out early – Tacitus will likely be in the best spot to take it all – BUT I think Maximum Security rides by Improbable – Tacitus, Roadster and Game Winner will make a bid but the race works out too well for Maximum Security.

Closing Speed likes:  Maximum Security, Improbable, Game Winner

If I’m betting $36 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box: 5,6,7,16 = $24

$1 Exacta: 5, 7 with 5,7,6,8,16,17,18 = $12

Longshot:

$5 Win/Place – #18 Long Range Toddy (30/1) 

(ONLY if it’s dry – solid horse, might hate the slop).

$5 Win/Place – #6 Vekoma (15/1)

$5 Win/Place - #13 Code of Honor (12/1)

Florida Derby & Louisiana Derby

Gulfstream Park  - April 1^st 2017

Race 14 - 6:40 PM

Florida Derby (Grade I)

Purse - $1,000,000

Distance – 1 1/8^th Mile

Surface – Dirt

1 - State of Honor

2 - Talk Logistics

3 - Charlie the Greek

4 - Always Dreaming

5 - Quinientos

6 - Coleman Rocky

7 - Unbridled Holiday

8- Impressive Edge

9- Battalion Runner

10 - Three Rules

11 - Gunnevera

                  

This year the first Saturday in April features two great Derbies – the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby! Both feature strong contenders for the Kentucky Derby / Triple Crown – however I’m going to focus on the Florida Derby because of #11 Gunnevera.

Gunnevera - the Horse we could all be talking about come Kentucky Derby Time

When last we saw Gunnevera he was long striding his way from the rest of the field in a commanding Fountain of Youth Stakes victory here at Gulfstream Park.

In contention with him were also #10 Three Rules (finished 3^rd), #2 Talk Logistics (finished 4^th), and #5 Quinientos who finished 6^th.

See Race Below:

I believe Gunnevera will likely win again here at the Florida Derby – however the odds makers have caught my attention – so let’s take a look at the other horses.

#1 State of Honor – Very solid horse, he will likely take the lead in this race – especially if he breaks well from the Gate. State of Honor recently finished 2^nd in the Tampa Bay Derby, and unfortunately faded as they came out of the final turn. I think there’s a very good chance State of Honor could finish in the top 3 – but I believe Gunnevera would have to have an off day for State of Honor to win.

#3 Charlie the Greek – is going off at 50-1 – he’s won 2 races in 12 attempts, and finished his last race 4^th against lesser competition. If I could talk to the owners I’d tell them -  

GYROutta Your League!!

 (you have to say it out loud)

GYROutta Your League!!

……huh...huh?????

(I know it's awful).

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
is unhappy about the horrible pun.
But more unhappy that he's not
eating Dolmades, Hummas,
Souvlaki and Baklava!!

Moving on from the bad pun -- #4 Always Dreaming is one of the horses that the odds makers have piqued my interest in.  He’s currently going off at 4-1 – he’s the third favorite in this race – his career record is 2 Wins in 4 Attempts – and his last victory was at this distance 1 and 1/8 mile.

And I usually trust the “locals” to have insight on a race like this – however the horse Always Dreaming recently defeated was Charlie the Greek (2^nd) -- (you know the 50-1 horse). I wouldn’t be surprised if Always Dreaming drops to the 5^th or 6^th favorite come race time – either that or I believe he’ll be overbet.

#6 Coleman Rocky – has 1 win in 5 races, he’s going off at 30-1. Wouldn’t surprise me if this horse looked sharp for about a mile and then dropped off.

#7 Unbridled Holiday – has 1 win in 7 races, he’s also going off at 30-1 – he’ll likely run in the middle of the pack, but I doubt he has enough to out run these horses at the end of the race.

#8 Impressive Edge is currently sitting at 12-1, and he recently picked up a victory in an Allowance Outing. He has 2 Wins in 5 Attempts……I’d really like to “like” this horse more – but either he’d have to blossom in this race or everyone else would have to really come out flat for me to believe he can win this one. He feels like bad bettors bait here.

#9 Battalion Runner – First of all, very cool name – he’s currently going off as the Second Favorite (3/1) in this race – he won his most recent outing and he has 2 victories in 3 attempts –

Now for the bad news – Battalion Runner hasn’t raced in 57 days - so I think he could come out a bit rusty. And this is an unfortunate Post Position for him, because I suspect Battalion Runner will want to compete for the early lead – and with 8 horses between him and the rail it could be a very difficult, energy expending, trip for him in first half mile.

#10 Three Rules – is currently sitting at 8/1 and finished third behind Gunnevera in the Fountain of Youth. 

Keep an eye out for the odds on this horse, because I think he’s underbet here. I think he should at least be the third favorite in this one – and while I don’t think he can beat Gunnevera (if Gunnevera is sharp) – I DO think he has a chance of beating everyone else in this race.

How I see the Race:

State Of Honor will look to grab the rail, dictate the early pace and hope (that because he’s taken the shortest trip, against the rail) that everyone in this race is exhausted in the final furlongs and he can steal the race – meanwhile Battalion Runner will hope to make a quick break and stalk State Of Honor and as they come out of the final turn – Battalion Runner will hit the jets, pass up State of Honor and hope that Gunnevera fades, hits traffic behind him or comes out flat.

Gunnevera will likely hang back – patiently let all of the front runners find their spacing, and when the moment is right – Gunnevera will be asked for his full throttle and we’ll see if he’s got it.

I’m guessing he does….and we’ll be talking about his Kentucky Derby odds soon.

Closing Speed likes:  Gunnevera / Battalion Runner / Three Rules

Louisiana Derby –

The Louisiana Derby is primarily a rematch from the Risen Star Stakes  and as you’ll see the Favorite Girvin found himself in the Winner’s Circle (see below)

  

I like Girvin to repeat here –

If I were betting $6 I would go with –

$1 Exacta – Girvin with Patch, Senior Investment and Monaco

And then also the reverse

$1 Exacta – Patch, Senior Investment and Monaco with Girvin. 

Girvin

Florida Derby 2016

Gulfstream Park – April 2, 2016

Race 14 - 6:48 PM

Florida Derby (Grade I)

Distance - One And One Eighth Miles

1 – Sawyers Mickey

2 – Fellowship                                  

3 – Majesto                                                       

4 – Nyquist                                                        

5 – Copingaway                                                               

6 – Chovanes                                                    

7 – Takeittotheedge

8 – Fashionable Freddy

9 –  Mohayman

10 – Isofass

#4 Nyquist and #9 Mohayman are considered by many to be the two best three year old horses in the country --- and (it’s possible) they could be starting a great rivalry here at Gulfstream Park in the Florida Derby.

#4 Nyquist is undefeated in 6 races including the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and the San Vicente Stakes.

#9 Mohayman is also undefeated – having won his last two races The Fountain of Youth and the Holy Bull Stakes here at Gulfstream Park.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
thinks that having a Father
named Uncle Mo would be
very confusing. 

Nyquist (like his father Uncle Mo) has a tendency to set a demanding pace (he put up a 22.7 ¼ mile in his last outing) – he will, most likely, look to take the lead early – control the rail – and have enough stamina to finish before any late closers can catch him……and as I wrote before – so far no one has.

Mohayman will likely stalk the pace – he will likely position himself in the middle of the pack and look to have enough time and enough energy to close on Nyquist.

What will be very interesting is to see how much distance is between Nyquist and Mohayman going into the first turn and coming out of the second turn.

Mohayman doesn’t want to burn out too early trying to keep up with Nyquist in the first three quarters of the race --- he also doesn’t want to give Nyquist so much room that he doesn’t have time to catch Nyquist in the final furlongs.  

Currently Nyquist is the second favorite currently set at 6/5 odds --- Mohayman is currently at 1/1 odds – I don’t think I’ve ever seen odds this low AND this close in one race.

With a two dollar bet --

6/5 odds pays $4.40

1/1 odds pays $4.00

Just to look over the remaining horses –

#1 Sawyers Mickey is currently at 30-1 and has never won a race in 7 attempts

#2 Fellowship (15-1) finished 3^rd in the Fountain of Youth against Mohayman and has two victories in 10 attempts.

#3 Majesto (20/1)  - 1 win in 5 Races

#5 Copingaway (50/1) 1 win – 14 races

#6 Chovanes (30/1) 1 win – 4 races

#7 Takeittotheedge (20/1) – he won in his only race, which was a 7 furlong race here at Gulfstream Park.

#8 Fashionable Freddy (30/1) – 1 win in 5 races

#10 Isofass (30/1) – 1 win in 4 races.

To give this some perspective Nyquist has 6 victories – Mohayman has 5 victories – and the rest of the field combined have 8 victories.

In my attempt to pick a winner in this race – I have gone back and forth several times –

Mohayman has never had to close on this kind of early speed – Nyquist may not have enough endurance to hold Mohayman off.

Mohayman has experience on this track – Nyquist is the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Champion.

I usually take the horse that has experience with the track, and Mohayman has won his last two races at Gulfstream Park…..but it is certainly not easy not choosing the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile that has quite a bit of racing experience already.

So Closing Speed likes: Mohayman,  Nyquist and Majesto

I would not bet on this race – this is a race you just sit back and hope to watch two young greats go at it.

However if you’re betting $18 I would go with a Pick 3 bet beginning in race #12

Race #12 – 3,5,6 with Race #13 – 4,7,9 with Race #14 4,9.

2013 Florida Derby

GULFSTREAM PARK - March 30, 2013

Race 12 - 6:19 PM

Besilu Stables Florida Derby   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,000,000

Distance - One And One Eighth Miles

I believe that the horse that wins the Florida Derby will be the Kentucky Derby favorite – three extremely talented horses make this race the most competitive race (outside of a few past KY Derbies) that I can remember.

#3  - Itsmyluckyday – ran so well in his last outing, The Holy Bull Stakes, that he broke a track record. If this horse can be consistent with those kinds of races – he’ll not only be the best three year old in the country…he’ll be the best three year old horse we’ve seen in a long time.

However he hasn’t always been consistent – in his last four races he’s won the last two, but finished 4^th and 6^th in the two races previously.  It’s very difficult to tell with young horses – because sometimes the light bulb just “comes on” and they make a jump in  how well they race…..but this horse could also be a BOOM or BUST kind of horse that will occasionally just not show up for a race.

I do think he’ll show up today – he’s got a great post position and he seems to like Gulfstream Park.

#1  -  Shanghai Bobby – in contrast to Itsmyluckyday – Shanghai Bobby had won his first five races including the Breeders Cup Juvenile. His only loss was against Itsmyluckyday in the Holy Bull and he will be looking for revenge in the Florida Derby.

Shanghai will have the rail in this race and if he can make the most of it he may be able to control the tempo and benefit from the shorter trip. Then again he could get cut off early, get bogged down in traffic before the first turn -- and it could be the difference between finishing 1st or finishing 4th.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
wonders why it's called
Ducking someone ??
Are Ducks notorious chickens?

I really like this horse – and I like that his ownership is putting him up in a rematch against the only horse he’s ever lost too…..they ain’t ducking nobody. Consider that his management could have shipped this horse to Santa Anita (where they won the Breeders Cup) and faced significantly lesser talent.

Also kudos to the Shanghai Bobby team for making the most out of twitter – this sport needs all the passion and good PR it can get!

  

And finally let’s not forget about #6 Orb – who has won three straight races including the Fountain of Youth stakes. His last two victories were here at Gulfstream Park and it wouldn’t surprise me if he were the sharpest coming into this race.

Itsmyluckyday and Shanghai haven’t raced for almost 2 months – Orb last ran about a month ago.

Shanghai Bobby & Orb will both hover around the same odds – I prefer Shanghai because he’s a Champion kind of horse – who will consistently run well, and has been doing it since he first hit the track. He’s seen the best horses and with the exception of Itsmyluckyday – beaten them all.

Orb – may be a horse on the rise, and as I stated – he may be the sharpest out of the three. However in my opinion he’ll need a little help to beat Luckyday and Shaghai.

Difficult to imagine any horse defeating Itsmyluckyday after his Holy Bull Performance. He’ll deservedly go off as the favorite in this race – and if he wins this race by a few lengths --- we could be watching something very special here.

If he finishes fourth…..he’ll make betting this horse in the Kentucky Derby,  a nightmare.

I don’t think the other 7 horses have a chance for an upset victory – but I do think #8 Merit Man or #7 Indy’s Illusion could sneak into the top three with a lot of help.

I’m rooting for Shanghai Bobby --- but I think Itsmyluckyday will be too tough to beat here.

This really isn’t a good race to bet --- just sit back and enjoy.