Kentucky Derby 2021

Churchill Downs  – May 1^st, 2021
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $3,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface - Dirt

1 – Known Agenda 2 – Like the King 3 – Brooklyn Strong 4 – Keepmeinmind 5 – Sainthood 6 – O Besos 7 – Mandaloun 8 – Medina Spirit 9 –  Hot Rod Charlie 10 – Midnight Bourbon

11 – Dynamic One 12 – Helium 13 – Hidden Stash 14 – Essential Quality 15 – Rock Your World 16 – King Fury  (SCR) 17 – Highly Motivated 18 – Super Stock 19 – Soup and Sandwich 20 – Bourbonic

** I've written a quick snapshot of all of the horses – but #8 is where it gets interesting.

Tough luck for #1 Known Agenda who drew the rail – this horse is a quality horse and definitely has potential to win big races down the road – HOWEVER this post remind me of 2010 with Lookin’ At Lucky, who was an exceptional horse but got swallowed up early and managed a 6^th place finish.  I would need 30-1 odds here before I would even consider it….and the morning line was 6-1. Hard Pass!

#2 Like the King – 3 wins in 6 Starts – I think the competition is too much for him here.        

#3 Brooklyn Strong – 3 wins in 5 Starts – but finished 7^th in his last race featuring Winner #20 Bourbonic and 2^nd Place #11 Dynamic One.

#4 Keepmeinmind – recently finished 5^th in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Favorite #14 Essential Quality, and 2^nd place #17 Highly Motivated.  This horse has finished 4 times in the money out of 6.

I can actually feel this Saint disapproving of that
play on words. 

#5 Sainthood – Recently finished behind #2 Like the King – one could say he doesn't have a prayer. 

#6 O Besos – Fun Trivia – He is the only horse to be sired by a Kentucky Derby Winner in this field (Orb 2013) – but O Besos hasn’t flashed that kind of talent so far – finishing recently behind #9 Hot Rod Charlie, #7 Mandaloun and #10 Midnight Bourbon (Twice). His last victory was in January.

#7 Mandaloun – Beat Midnight Bourbon in the Lecomte, Lost to Midnight Bourbon in the following race Risen Star and then finished 6^th behind Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon and O Besos. Would need a lot of help here.

#8 Medina Spirit – Jockey J.R. Velazquez has won three Kentucky Derby’s, including 2020 onboard Authentic.  This horse has a GREAT Post….however out of 5 Races this horse has only won 2 and has finished 2^nd in the rest. Was expected to take the Santa Anita Derby, (with my Favorite Life is Good off the derby trail) – but #15 Rock # Your World stole the show. At 15/1 odds, with this post and this jockey, you have my attention!

#9 Hot Rod Charlie – Also a great Post – this horse has 2 wins in 7 attempts and looked great in the Louisiana Derby…..HOWEVER, his jockey J. Rosario will be riding #15 Rock Your World.

**However the Jockey they have is Flavien Prat has won the KY Derby before --- winning  the controversial 2019 Kentucky Derby.

Louisiana Derby 2021:

#10 Midnight Bourbon – Jockey "Big Money" Mike Smith has a pair of Kentucky Derby wins – most recently 2018 with Justify. Out of 7 Starts this horse has hit the Winners circle only twice….however this horse has finished Win/Place/Show – 7 out of 7. At 20-1 this horse makes a good horse to round out a Trifecta bet. 

#11 Dynamic One – Placed in the Wood Memorial behind #20 Bourbonic – up until the Wood Memorial this horse had an unimpressive resume. I firmly believe he’s well overmatched here – however  maybe this horse is putting it together at the right time? Would need 50-1 odds before I’d be interested. 

#12 Helium – (Speaking of finding interesting odds) --- DEFINITELY put this horse on your long shot list. This horse is undefeated in three races – including the Tampa Bay Derby….and he’s going well under the radar at 50-1.  In Tampa he defeated #13 Hidden Stash, who recently finished 4^th behind Favorite Essential Quality and Highly Motivated. 

**This Long shot has everything working for him – he’s still fairly unknown and he’s got the inside spot on MOST of the more favored horses. I rarely like Long Shots….but this horse may have just lucked into the Kentucky Derby and could finish dead last…..OR he could be the unknown factor that SHOCKS Churchhill Downs!!!

High on Helium - Tampa Bay Derby:

#13 Hidden Stash – Hasn’t seen the Winners Circle since November 2020. Solid Horse, will run an admirable race, but I see this horse finishing 3^rd at best. 

#14 Essential Quality – Is the “Heavy” Favorite at 2-1. I “should” love this horse – who is undefeated in 5 Starts including the Juvenile Breeders Cup. This horse is the picture of poise and maturity for a 3 year old – this Colt doesn’t “race” he floats to victory. 

*** Maybe I’ve got a California Bias (I really don’t think I do) – maybe I’m just seeing what I “need” to see – maybe I’ve had too much Midnight Bourbon ---  but I think the 2021 Kentucky Derby is the perfect storm for an upset….and I may be alone on this – but I think this year is the year NOT to bet the favorite(s) to win. 

There’s nothing wrong with this horse – but after the Juvenile Breeders Cup (which he won handily) – he’s raced in “gimme” races like the Southwest and Bluegrass…..incidentally I’ve NEVER trusted the results of the Blue Grass Stakes – and it’s never produced a Kentucky Derby Winner!! (Closest was Good Magic in 2018 – finished 2^nd).

I believe this horse will finish in the top 3 – but I’m anticipating UPSET!

2020 Breeders Cup

#15 Rock Your World – Winner of the Santa Anita Derby – this horse shocked So. Cal by hitting the Winner’s Circle on Dirt after having only previously raced on Turf. Rock Your World is undefeated in 3 races. His Jockey is Jockey is Joel Rosario (who won the Kentucky Derby on the aforementioned Orb).

Santa Anita Derby 2021:

#16 – King Fury – is scratched – had two victories at Churchhill Downs  - would have been interesting......in the mean time 

And because of the disappointing scratch here's a very young girl singing We Will Rock You to a Full Soccer Stadium -- in honor of Rock Your World!

**To quote William Shakespeare - though she be but little, she is fierce!

#17 – Highly Motivated – Last victory was in Nov. 2020 – Solid horse, definitely should be a consideration for the top 5 --- would need a lot of help to steal a victory. Recently finished 2^nd in the Bluegrass Stakes behind Essential Quality.

#18 – Super Stock – Won the Arkansas Derby – and has two victories in 8 races.  Will have Jockey Santana aboard again (from Arkansas). Maybe this horse has finally found his stride?? My thought is he’s a grinder, good all-around horse but out of his league here. 

 

#19 – Soup and Sandwich – I love this horse’s name…..he has 2 wins out of 3 Races and finished behind Known Agenda in the Florida Derby.  Unfortunately he hasn’t kept the same Jockey for consecutive races and his last rider Velazquez will be aboard #8 Medina Spirit.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah is VERY disappointed
to have come out of retirement for this 
kind of Soup and Sandwich!

#20 – Bourbonic – If you like LATE closers, this horse might be your guy. Bourbonic is in the perfect spot – he’ll likely hang well back for most of the race and hope to find a hole to burst through in the final furlongs. This horse has 3 victories in 6 attempts….two of those victories came with Carmouche on board.

I’m not a big fan of late charging horses in the Derby – finding a hole through 18 other horses coming out of the final turn is asking for some substantial luck. However at 30-1 this horse might be worth the risk.

***This horse should ABSOLUTELY be on your radar for the Belmont Stakes!

Wood Memorial:

Here’s how I see the race playing out –

#1 Known Agenda gets buried quick and fast -- he's lost this race even before we've hit 3 full seconds.

#8 Medina Spirit and #9 Hot Rod Charlie are going to push to set the tempo --- #15 Rock Your World may also challenge to set the pace early -- he may look to stalk the pace a few lengths behind in the first turn.

The “Big” questions are – Will #12 Helium also step up and challenge? And WHAT exactly will the strategy be for the favorite #14 Essential Quality?? 

Rock Your World, Medina Spirit and Hot Rod Charlie – I believe one of these horses will be the pace setter. ** Midnight Bourbon and Sainthood could be up front as well. 

** If Essential Quality pushes the pace early – this could set up a late closer like #20 Bourbonic (who will likely be at the very back of the pack until the middle of the second turn). 

** If Essential Quality wrangles for the middle of the pack he could get jostled in the traffic – setting up the early leads. 

** If Rock Your World  had to endure a wide trip he could fade – and if Essential Quality is stuck in traffic – that opens things up for Medina Spirit / Hot Rod Charlie / (Maybe) Helium and Bourbonic. 

Sometime you’re betting the best HORSE in the Race – this year, you may be betting the “size” and “strategy” of the Kentucky Derby. 

Closing Speed likes:  Medina Spirit, Rock Your World, Midnight Bourbon (Essential Quality 4th)

If I’m betting $36 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box: 8,9,14,20 = $24

$1 Exacta: 14, 15 with 8,9,12, 20 = $12

Longshots:

$5 Win/Place – #8 Medina Spirit = $10

$2 Across the Board - #12 Helium = $6

 $2 Across the Board - # 20 Bourbonic = $6

$2  Across the Board - #10 Midnight Bourbon = $6

Orb - 2013 Twin Spires!

Belmont Stakes 2013

BELMONT PARK - June 08, 2013

Race 11 - 6:36 PM

Belmont S.   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,000,000

Distance - One And One Half Miles

1 – Frac Daddy

2 – Freedom Child

3 – Overanaylze

4 – Giant Finish

5 – Orb

6 – Incognito

7 – Oxbow

8 – Midnight Taboo

9 – Revolutionary

10 – Will Take Charge

11 – Vyjack

12 – Palace Malice

13 – Unlimited Budget

14 – Golden Soul

Let me begin by writing that I really thought #5 Orb was the best three year old racing this year and that I was confident we would be looking at Triple Crown Contention this Saturday.

According to his ownership when Orb was asked to go for the win down the stretch….he just didn’t respond --- so here’s the question for horse racing fans – was his lack of response a one time thing or is he going to be asleep again down the stretch when they add more distance in the Belmont Stakes??

The Morning Line has him as the favorite and if the Florida and Kentucky Derby Orb shows up I agree that he’s the one who should win…..but it’s a bit of tough sell when he finished 4^th in his last race – the Preakness.

After finishing 6^th in the Kentucky Derby and not having won a race since January -- #7 Oxbow shocked the racing world (and specifically one gentleman below) by going practically wire to wire for a Preakness victory!

I'm just guessing he didn't bet on Oxbow......

I really like Oxbow – and I think if they allow him to race for another few years he could become a key horse in Stakes Races, he’s just solid all around talent and kind of a working class colt. 

Currently he’s considered the third morning line favorite – and I like his chances – he’s got a solid post position, and I think he has a chance to win with the same strategy that put him in the Preakness Winner’s Circle.The distance is a major question.....but that's a major question for everyone in this race.

The Second Morning Line Favorite is #9 Revolutionary – and he has won three out of his last five races….his two losses were both to Orb.

Revolutionary could be dangerous because he skipped the Preakness – and he could benefit by having fresher legs than Orb and Oxbow. Revolutionary has shown a powerful late kick and he may have just enough going for him this Saturday to finally beat Orb.

Moving back to the top of the order –

#1 Frac Daddy – 16^th in the KY Derby and hasn’t won a race since last November. I like this rascal of a horse but I don’t think he’s got more than a mile and 1/16^th in him.

#2 Freedom Child – recently defeated #6 Incognito (5^th) in a romp here at Belmont in the Peter Pan Stakes. I think he could challenge Oxbow for the early lead and then it could come down to which horse is going to have the distance and is most comfortable at Belmont Park…..at 8/1 he’s a very interesting prospect that needs a little help.

Peter Pan Stakes:

#3 Overanalyze – if you believe in horses bouncing (meaning he wins a race than loses a race than wins the next race) then you’ll love Overanalyze who finished 11^th in the KY Derby – and has won 4 out of 8 lifetime races….never having two consecutive losses or victories in a row. So he’s due for a win. 

He was rusty having not raced for several months in his Gotham Stakes loss….won with style in a tough Arkansas Derby field…and then finished poorly in a sloppy Kentucky Derby – that I’m kind of dismissing because the mud was such a factor. At 12-1….how can you not put a couple of dollars on a horse that always seems to bounce back???

#4 Giant Finish – finished 10^th in the Kentucky Derby, I think he’s outclassed here.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
Starring as Jungle Cat
in the best selling novel,
adaptation for film.....
MIDNIGHT TABOO!!!

#8 Midnight Taboo – comes in as a 30-1 mystery. He has one victory in three attempts and he finished 2^nd in his last race, an allowance race here in Belmont. With the quantity and quality of talent in this Belmont Stakes I just think this is asking too much of this inexperienced horse……at 100-1 he might catch my attention….although he’s got a great name….sounds like a trashy novel that everyone would read but nobody would admit too…….either that…..or a Tiki Drink that everyone would drink and never remember drinking.

#10 Will Take Charge – Defeated Oxbow in  the Rebel Stakes by a head when he stormed late down the final stretch to steal the victory……but since then he’s finished 8^th in the Kentucky Derby and 7^th in the Preakness….where O’ where did that late stormy action go? 

If Will Take Charge can find that lightning in a bottle again, I think he could upset – but my gut tells me his Rebel Stakes victory was just a unique outing for him. I think he could crack the top three – but he needs help to win, and he will need to find that great late kick that he only showed once.

#11 Vyjack – This horse was a New York favorite leading up to the Wood Memorial where he finished a disappointing 3^rd place, followed by  a VERY disappointing 18^th place in the KY Derby.  I’m tossing out the KY Derby result – but I don’t think this horse has got the distance for this race….in fact I think that’s what most people believe. But he may be worth a $2 bet if he stays at 20/1 odds……he is a very solid contender and if he has found the distance in his training he’ll fight for it.

#12 Palace Malice – One victory in seven attempts…..the problem with this horse is that he could push the early pace and force horses like Oxbow and Freedom Child to get caught in an early speed trap. He’s the kind of horse that really doesn't have a chance to win…but his style of racing could very well change the outcome.

The Filly #13 Unlimited Budget – has won four of her last five races, but her only loss was her most recent race the Kentucky Oaks (the filly version of the Kentucky Derby) where she finished 3^rd.

She is the daughter to Kentucky Derby Champion Street Sense – which makes her Zenyatta’s niece (or whatever the horse term for that is?).  She very well could have the breeding for this distance – but I don’t know if she’s got the talent?

 

She’s going off at 8/1 and she has the very dangerous Rosie Napravnik as her jockey --- could this be a “Girl Power” Belmont – that would be pretty cool??

Last, but certainly not least is the 2^nd place finisher in the Kentucky Derby #14 Golden Soul.  I think the distance will help Golden Soul – however he never seems to be able to “close the deal” and win the race when it counts.  Lifetime he has finished 2^nd behind Orb (KY Derby), Revolutionary (4^th – Louisiana Derby) and Oxbow (LeComte Stakes).

To be honest I’m rooting a little bit for Unlimited Budget – filly with a female rider taking the Belmont Stakes (certainly considered the most grueling of the Triple Crown races) would be pretty awesome! 

However that’s not who I’m going to pick to win…..I think Palace Malice, Oxbow and/or Freedom Child are going to wear out early….too fast too furious.

And I think the closers will pull out a victory.

Closing Speed likes: Revolutionary, Overanaylze, Orb

If I’m betting $20 here’s who I like

$1 Exacta Box – 3,5,9, 13 = $12

$4 – Freedom Child to win

If the following are still at 20/1 or higher:

$2 – Will Take Charge to win

$2 – Vyjack to win 

Preakness Stakes 2013

PIMLICO - May 18, 2013

Race 12 - 6:20 PM

Preakness S.   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,000,000

Distance - One And Three Sixteenth Miles

1 – Orb

2 – Goldenscents

3 – Titletown Five

4 – Departing

5 – Mylute

6 – Oxbow

7 – Will Take Charge

8 – Govenor Charlie

9 – Itsmyluckyday

I began writing this blog several years ago in hopes of following the early career of a Triple Crown winner – and we’ve come close to breaking the thirty four year drought twice in recent years with Big Brown and I’ll Have Another.

Big Brown had mechanical difficulty in the Belmont, and I’ll Have Another unfortunately sustained an injury after the Preakness and was unable to race in the Belmont.

I believe #1 Orb has the talent to be a Triple Crown winner – He’s won his last five races, against quality talent – and the distance of the Preakness should be perfect for his style.

There is a 70% chance of rain, and he's proven that he can run in the mud (see KY Derby). 

A number of people are concerned with his #1 post position – and I’ll add that I have some concerns, but I don’t see it as being a big disadvantage. 

Orb has shown a maturity and a racing style that will allow him to sit back and find a spot he’s comfortable running in. If he’s able to keep up with the middle of the pack and find an opening in the final stretch I suspect (as long as he doesn't come out flat) he’ll sail by his competition to the winner’s circle as he has in the past few races.

I certainly agree that Orb should be the favorite in this race…..but I think he’s facing a bigger challenge than his 1/1 morning odds indicate, considering the competition….and here they are......

#2 Goldenscents finished a very disappointing 17^th in the Kentucky Derby – but this horse has bounced back before (With Santa Anita Derby and Delta Downs Jackpot victories). I’m throwing away his KY Derby performance – too much mud and too many horses. I disagree with his 8/1 morning line odds, I think this horse should be the second favorite here.

#3 Titletown Five is the longshot here at 30-1 odds….now these odds I completely agree with. I believe he’s completely outclassed in this one.

#5 Mylute and #4 Departing are the second and third favorites in this race respectively.  Mylute finished 2^nd just ahead of Departing in the Louisiana Derby…..and Mylute was the next closest finisher to Orb in the Kentucky Derby (5^th), that's facing him again today….but I’m just not a believer in these two horses being the second and third favorites in this race. I do like their post positions --- but if the ground isn’t muddy I think there are bigger challengers to Orb than these two.

Like #6 Oxbow – I like Oxbow and I think if he continues racing he’s going to be a very good horse in the next few years. I think if he runs "his" race and Orb runs into traffic Oxbow could pull off an upset here, but he’s the kind of horse that will need help. Oxbow is just kind of a Blue Collar, Lunch Pail, get the job done kind of horse – however I don’t think he has the explosive talent of some of the other contenders.

The next three horses are the ones that scare me the most…..

#7 Will Take Charge --- again I’m throwing away the muddy crowded KY Derby --- and I’m looking at his victory in the Rebel Stakes. I think on solid ground this horse is a bigger contender than his 8^th place Kentucky Derby finish or his 12/1 odds would indicate. If the ground is muddy….he doesn’t seem to run well in the muck so I may cross him out at that point…..but if it’s dry – watch out.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
would like to be addressed
as Governor from time
to time.

#8 Governor Charlie – worries me the most. It’s been 55 days since he last raced, however in his last outing the Sunland Derby, he kept up with the leaders on a 23 second first quarter,  a 46 second half mile and finishes a Mile 1/8 well ahead of the rest. This horse may be able to go wire to wire in this race, and if the rest of the horses gang up on Orb and try to prevent him from winning by simply keeping him pinned to the rail or in traffic…..Governor Charlie could be the horse that benefits the most.

In my opinion this horse will be rusty having taken almost two months off – however he’ll also have the freshest legs on the track, especially compared to six Kentucky Derby challengers who just ran 14 days ago in a different state.

At 12/1 odds…..He’s definitely my LONG SHOT ALERT!

Finally #9 Itsmyluckyday --- currently going off at 10/1 after a 15^th place finish in the KY Derby. I still think this horse has SCARY TALENT….because he was absolutely stunning in his Holy Bull Victory. However this will be his third time going up against Orb and he has yet to beat him. It’s getting harder to believe that Itsmyluckyday just didn’t have a lucky day in the Holy Bull.

Closing Speed likes: Orb, Governor Charlie, Goldenscents

If I’m betting $8 here’s who I like

$1 Exacta = 1/8 w 1/2/7/8/9

If Governor Charlie’s odds stay around 15-1 or 20-1 --- I like laying down $10 to win, and $10 to place.

Good Luck Champ - I'm pulling for you!

Kentucky Derby 2013

CHURCHILL DOWNS - May 04, 2013

Race 11 - 6:24 PM

Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands   (Grade I)

Purse - $2,000,000

Distance - One And One Fourth Miles

1 – Black Onyx

2 – Oxbow

3 – Revolutionary

4 – Golden  Soul

5 – Normandy Invasion

6 – Mylute

7 – Giant Finish

8 - Goldencents

9 – Overanalyze

10 – Palace Malice

11 - Lines of Battle

12 – Itsmyluckyday

13 – Falling Sky

14 – Verrazano

15 – Charming Kitten

16 – Orb

17 – Will Take Charge

18 – Frac Daddy

19 – Java’s War

20 - Vyjack

They're saying 90% chance of showers……historically this race is difficult to break down, the parity of this years talent makes it exceptionally difficult to break down…..and then you tell me there will likely be rain and mud?!?! Ohhhhh Kentucky Derby how you task me!

With one exception – I’m writing my breakdown with the idea that we’ll luck out and weather won’t be a barrier in tomorrow’s race --- despite the mere 10% chance of that happening.

If you decide to bet tomorrow and the track is just a mess -- my suggestion is to bet a number of long-shots ...because the playing field will (in my opinion) be more even and at the same time more unpredictable.

#1 Black Onyx (Spiral Stakes winner) – has been scratched…… If this horse returns for the Preakness I think he could be a threat – ownership probably hated the inside position and the chance of bad weather.

#2 Oxbow. I like this horse, but he needed a little help in this one and instead he picked up a difficult opening spots for his style of racing. I think he’ll get buried early in this race and won’t be able to break free until it’s too late.

#3 Revolutionary (Louisiana Derby winner) – Rarely will you see me write this in my blog, because I’m not big on “Betting the Jockey” but if the track is just a mess of mud  tomorrow – I like Revolutionary a LOT in the Kentucky Derby. He’s a very talented colt, he’ll fight for a victory – but Calvin Borel just “GETS” this track. Borel won in the mud a few years ago with Mine That Bird – and I believe (in this race) he could be a difference maker.

#4 Golden Soul – unless he’s great in the mud?? He’s got one victory last December against no one special. Sold starting spot….but that’s all I see – I think he’s over matched here.

#5 Normandy Invasion – Interesting prospect of a horse (I see him becoming a very good four and five year old), solid post position – but I think he’ll need a lot of help to win here. Wouldn't surprise me if he landed in the top 5 though. Last trip to the winners circle was in November.

#6 Mylute – (2^nd in the Louisiana Derby) love the starting spot, he’s a fighter…but I see him as being outclassed here as well. Solid horse…but not a superstar.

#7 Giant Finish – (3^rd in the Spiral Stakes) I think he’s a sleeping talent….but I haven’t seen enough to put my $2 down on this horse even though I love the odds (50-1…and likely higher when they go off) and I love the starting spot. He's the kind of long shot I like in bad weather.

#8 Goldencents – (Santa Anita Derby Winner) – Santa Anita is in my back yard and for a number of years I put the Santa Anita Derby winner as a sentimental favorite of mine….only to be greatly disappointed year in and year out (I’m looking at your Colonel John..and Pioneer of the Nile)….but last year Santa Anita Derby winner I’ll Have Another took the first two races in the Triple Crown against equally difficult talent, compared to this year.

Of course last year I gave up on
Santa Anita Winners.
D'oh!

Goldencents has talent, a great starting spot and a jockey with an extremely cool dialect!! But I can’t help but see this horse as being a very good horse among a few possibly great ones. Then again perhaps he is peaking at the right time?

#9 Overanalyze – (Arkansas Derby Winner) Great opening spot and after a long layoff this horse could be coming into his talent. I believe this horse could have another gear that he hasn't shown us yet – he won the Arkansas Derby going wide for much of the race, which he’ll have to repeat, but he’s a tempting bet. If this horse has “found his stride” than he could easily be a modest upset here. A lot of things working for this 12-1 horse.

#10 Palace Malice – (2^nd Blue Grass Stakes) Good opening spot….and his Dad, Curlin, was a Champion….however his dad isn’t running today. I’d be surprised if this horse cracks the top 10.

#11 Lines of Battle (UAE Derby Winner) It’s unique to get the UAE Derby winner in the Kentucky Derby….Lines of Battle has already won the Middle East version of the Kentucky Derby and is only going off at 30-1 here?? I don’t like how much he’s had to travel….but I see this horse more like 10-1 than 30-1. I think you throw down a few bucks if the weather is bad.

#12 Itsmyluckyday – (2^nd Florida Derby) First of all I think he’ll be over bet because of his name…..however this horse concerns me more than any other “longshot” in the field. He strikes me as a horse who has VERY SCARY talent…..but he also strikes me as a horse who doesn’t have that drive – that NEED to win consistently. I can see this horse winning by 5 lengths or finishing in the bottom half.  15-1 makes him considerably tempting. And sure….throw in some mud and he becomes even more of an enigma.

#13 Falling Star – Seems out classed here.

#14 Verrazano – (Wood Memorial winner) He’s undefeated. One of his owners just won the College Basketball Championship – and this horse (unlike Itsmyluckyday) seems to have the talent AND the drive to win big races. Unfortunately I believe weather hurts this horse perhaps more than the other horses.

One thing I have seen in horse racing is that if you have a champion caliber animal – you may decide NOT to push that animal if the weather is bad….it seems (in other bad weather races) a few managements have reigned in their horses, making sure the champion caliber horses have a safe trip as opposed to risking whatever you need to do for victory…and if you lose the Kentucky Derby you lose a shot at immortality…..however you could also be saving an amazing animal that breeding offers are already being whispered about.

Then again....you could just tell the jockey to win, no matter the risk (it is the Kentucky Derby after all!!!)

Tough call. If the weather is bad and this horse comes out flat and then he turns around and tears up the Preakness (in good weather)……you’ll know my reason why.

#15 Charming Kitten – Seems outclassed here. 

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
hopes that when you read
Charming Kitten
You thought of him.

#16 Orb (Florida Derby Winner) he’s the morning line favorite and will probably flip flop a few times with Verrazano for that distinction before the gates open. The reason Orb will be favored is that he seems to have everything going his way right now.

Fantastic opening spot for his style of racing. He’s won his last four races against quality talent – and even with muddy conditions I believe he’ll be a strong contender in the end.

He’s a late charging horse, so traffic could be an issue for him late – but I think his early position will give him the opportunity to pick his spot going into the first turn and allow him to run the race he’ll want to run.  Unlike what I see right now in Itsmyluckyday – this is a horse who is both mentally and physically ready to be a champion…..but there is a LOT of talent in this race this year.

#17 Will Take Charge – (Rebel Stakes Winner) Quite frankly….this horse scares the hell out of me. He hasn’t raced in 49 days which could make him a little rusty coming into this race. He did not run well in the mud in the Southwest Stakes --- but he ran VERY well in the Rebel Stakes and Smarty Jones Stakes.

He’ll be able to stalk the likely favorite (Orb) and both of them are late charging horses.  I don’t like placing my hopes on a horse who has been sitting out for a month and a half….but this long shot is definitely worth a look. He’s a dangerous horse.

#18 Frac Daddy – Similar to Palace Malice --- I like this horse, I loved their sires….but I don’t see them doing well in the big dance.

#19 Java’s War – (Blue Grass Stakes winner and Half brother to Revolutionary) – I also really like this horse – however he doesn’t have a great opening spot for his style of racing and I think he’s slightly outclassed here. He’s the kind of horse that could also develop into a great four or five year old horse.

#20 Vyjack – (3^rd Wood Memorial) he absolutely dominated the New York group before Verrazano showed up in the Wood Memorial . Very solid horse….but I don’t see him having much of a chance in this one.

In closing I believe Orb and Verrazano are the two most talented and proven horses entering the Kentucky Derby….and both of them will need luck to defeat one another (along with quite a bit of surrounding talent).

If the track is muddy – I like Revolutionary – don’t get me wrong this horse could very well win this race without the help of bad weather and a great jockey….however if the playing field becomes more even due to bad weather – Calvin Borel has been a game changer here before.

I think with a little good luck Goldencents or Overanalyze could win this race and it would be a modest upset. However with just a slight amount of bad luck I think either of these horses could end up finishing in the bottom half of the field. It really is just that talented of a field this year.

The horses that scare the hell out of me are:

 UAE Champion Lines of Battle  -- because he’s already claimed being the best three year old horse in one half of the world -- then he travels here, gets a great opening spot and is given mouth watering odds!!!

Itsmyluckyday – because I think this horse has explosive ability….but it’s also an elusive and unpredictable ability.

Will Take Charge – I see a horse that could be a little like I’ll Have Another from last year – who comes in under the radar and makes you check your program twice after he crosses the finish line.

I’m looking forward to a great race – and I hope the storm clouds spare us a soupy track.

Closing Speed likes: Orb, Overanalyze, Revolutionary.

On a personal note I’ll be very happy if a couple of different horses win……however with such a closely contested race I think you bet the longshots a little more.

If I’m betting $20 here’s who I like

$4 – Win #11 Lines of Battle

$1 - Exacta -  3, 9, 12, 17 w/ 14 & 16 = $8

$1 – Exacta – 14 & 16 w/ 3,9,12,17 = $8

**And if the track is bad $10 Win #3 Revolutionary.

2013 Florida Derby

GULFSTREAM PARK - March 30, 2013

Race 12 - 6:19 PM

Besilu Stables Florida Derby   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,000,000

Distance - One And One Eighth Miles

I believe that the horse that wins the Florida Derby will be the Kentucky Derby favorite – three extremely talented horses make this race the most competitive race (outside of a few past KY Derbies) that I can remember.

#3  - Itsmyluckyday – ran so well in his last outing, The Holy Bull Stakes, that he broke a track record. If this horse can be consistent with those kinds of races – he’ll not only be the best three year old in the country…he’ll be the best three year old horse we’ve seen in a long time.

However he hasn’t always been consistent – in his last four races he’s won the last two, but finished 4^th and 6^th in the two races previously.  It’s very difficult to tell with young horses – because sometimes the light bulb just “comes on” and they make a jump in  how well they race…..but this horse could also be a BOOM or BUST kind of horse that will occasionally just not show up for a race.

I do think he’ll show up today – he’s got a great post position and he seems to like Gulfstream Park.

#1  -  Shanghai Bobby – in contrast to Itsmyluckyday – Shanghai Bobby had won his first five races including the Breeders Cup Juvenile. His only loss was against Itsmyluckyday in the Holy Bull and he will be looking for revenge in the Florida Derby.

Shanghai will have the rail in this race and if he can make the most of it he may be able to control the tempo and benefit from the shorter trip. Then again he could get cut off early, get bogged down in traffic before the first turn -- and it could be the difference between finishing 1st or finishing 4th.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
wonders why it's called
Ducking someone ??
Are Ducks notorious chickens?

I really like this horse – and I like that his ownership is putting him up in a rematch against the only horse he’s ever lost too…..they ain’t ducking nobody. Consider that his management could have shipped this horse to Santa Anita (where they won the Breeders Cup) and faced significantly lesser talent.

Also kudos to the Shanghai Bobby team for making the most out of twitter – this sport needs all the passion and good PR it can get!

  

And finally let’s not forget about #6 Orb – who has won three straight races including the Fountain of Youth stakes. His last two victories were here at Gulfstream Park and it wouldn’t surprise me if he were the sharpest coming into this race.

Itsmyluckyday and Shanghai haven’t raced for almost 2 months – Orb last ran about a month ago.

Shanghai Bobby & Orb will both hover around the same odds – I prefer Shanghai because he’s a Champion kind of horse – who will consistently run well, and has been doing it since he first hit the track. He’s seen the best horses and with the exception of Itsmyluckyday – beaten them all.

Orb – may be a horse on the rise, and as I stated – he may be the sharpest out of the three. However in my opinion he’ll need a little help to beat Luckyday and Shaghai.

Difficult to imagine any horse defeating Itsmyluckyday after his Holy Bull Performance. He’ll deservedly go off as the favorite in this race – and if he wins this race by a few lengths --- we could be watching something very special here.

If he finishes fourth…..he’ll make betting this horse in the Kentucky Derby,  a nightmare.

I don’t think the other 7 horses have a chance for an upset victory – but I do think #8 Merit Man or #7 Indy’s Illusion could sneak into the top three with a lot of help.

I’m rooting for Shanghai Bobby --- but I think Itsmyluckyday will be too tough to beat here.

This really isn’t a good race to bet --- just sit back and enjoy.