Pimlico - May 19,
2018
Race 13 - 6:48 PM
Preakness Stakes (Grade I)
Purse - $1,500,000
Distance - One And Three Sixteenth Miles
Surface – Dirt
1 – Quip
2 – Lone Sailor
3 – Sporting Chance
4 – Diamond King
5 – Good Magic
6 – Tenfold
7 – Justify
8 – Bravazo
Let’s just get this out of the way….. .I am in AWE of Justify.
I do think #5 Good Magic has a shot at upsetting the heavy
favorite #7 Justify. But Good Magic will need the race of his lifetime and luck
(either good for him or bad for Justify) to pull it off.
Before you take a look at the Kentucky Derby video below –
there are a couple of factors I’d like to point out.
#3 Promises Fulfilled and Justify run the first quarter mile
in 22.24 seconds…in the mud.
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| Strangely Sensitive Cheetah hates cleaning mud from his fur. |
22.24 seconds in the mud – is ABSURD!
Even had there been no rain – and the track had been firm and
dry, 22.24 is usually too fast to maintain, if you want to win the Kentucky
Derby. Had the track been firm and dry….they likely would have run about a 21.9
(or faster)!
Again that’s absurd!
If a horse runs THAT fast…THAT early they are very likely to
fade
And if you look closely as the announcer says “And there goes Justify” –
watch Promises Fulfilled – Going into the final turn he was tied for first …..and then 11
horses pass him – he’s by my estimate, 20 lengths behind Justify before he falls off the
backside of the screen, and he’s not the only one.
Flameaway also falls out as they round the final turn.
That’s a HARD Fade…the kind of fade you expect from any
horse that runs a 22.24 in the mud at this distance……now compare Promises
Fulfilled to Justify….same early race – much different ending.
Again – I’m in awe of Justify.
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| Incidentally I'm still watching Archer...but they really need to step up their game this season. |
Bolt D’Oro runs a length or two behind Justify until the final
turn – (Bolt D’Oro who had just finished second behind Justify in the Santa
Anita Stakes).
If you watch Bolt D’Oro he makes his move coming out of the
final turn – but he’s absolutely gassed…..after another furlong or so, you can
see him wobbling in the middle of the track….that’s an exhausted horse!
Audible (who finished 3rd) ran the race I expected
him too – he found the inside after coming out of the final turn and made a
noble effort…..but it’s too late - Justify has a comfortable lead at the finish line. (I wish Audible was making another run at Justify in the Preakness - would have been interesting to see).
Kentucky Derby Video:
Usually I will offer insight on the other horses – but I do
believe this is a two horse race – between Good Magic and Justify.
I think #1 Quip could run with the early leaders – but I
think he’ll fade if he tries to keep up early….so he likely will end up out of
the money.
#8 Bravazo finished 6th and #2 Lone Sailor
finished 8th in the Kentucky Derby – I would expect them to finish
in the money here…..best case scenario 2nd place, most likely a
finish in 3rd and 4th.
Fatigue could play a factor for any of the horses that ran in the KY Derby and return two weeks later for the Preakness - but I still like the KY Derby contenders to do well here.
Fatigue could play a factor for any of the horses that ran in the KY Derby and return two weeks later for the Preakness - but I still like the KY Derby contenders to do well here.
Good Magic has a couple of things working for him in this
race – first it’s a shorter race, which may help…..also Good Magic starts this race
on the inside of Justify which should help.
From what I’m reading the forecast calls for rain again – so
the track could be very muddy – that doesn’t help anyone, as we’ve already seen
how Justify runs in the mud.
**Seriously did you see the final photos – Justify’s Jockey
Mike Smith looks pristine – everyone else is covered in mud!
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| Justify needs to sign on with a Laundry Detergent --- "Your Clothes won't just be fresh and clean..... they'll be Justified!" |
**However if Ownership becomes concerned that Justify could
hurt himself on the track (and I have seen this before) they may not let the
horse run “his kind of race”. Meaning Ownership could instruct the Jockey to
hold the horse back and basically jog the track – it’s unlikely, but it is
possible.
**It’s also possible that Good Magic’s ownership becomes
concerned about injury and they could jog him.
For Good Magic to win this race I think he’ll have to hope
for a slower first half – instead of a
speedy 45.77 half mile (in the mud) – hopefully something closer to 47…or even
a 48.
If Justify doesn’t tear the track up in the first half mile –
Good Magic may be able to reserve more of his energy and as they come out of
the final turn – if Good Magic can establish the inside, he can pick up a few
steps on Justify coming out of the turn…..and then hit his next gear and have
hopefully “just” enough to beat Justify in a shorter race (shorter than the KY
Derby).
It will be a fascinating chess match between Good Magic and
Justify to see how they approach the pace of this race --- IF Justify is able
to pass Good Magic early, establish the inside AND a comfortable lead – Good Magic
will likely finish the same way he did in the Kentucky Derby (or worse).
Closing Speed likes:
Justify, Good Magic, Lone Sailor
Whenever there is a HEAVY Favorite in a race (and Justify
will be a heavy favorite) your two choices are to bet against him in that race
or (in my opinion) make that horse the Key (or Anchor) in a Pick 3 or Pick 4
bet….(or if you’re feeling lucky – a Pick 6).
If I were betting $20 here’s how I’d do it.
Pick 4 beginning in Race 10 – (includes Races 10,11,12 and
13) = $20
Or Pick 4 Beginning in Race 11 (includes Races 11,12,13, and
14) = $20
If you choose to do a pick 3 beginning with Race 11 – that should
be a $5 bet.
A Pick 3 Bet beginning with Race 12 would be a $4 bet.
Race 11 is going to be tough – and Axe Man is less than a
sure thing…but I like him enough.
Race 10: 3,4,5,9
Race 11: 1,3,4,7,12
Race 12: #8 Axe man
Race 13: #7 Justify
Race 14: 1,3,5,7
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