Kentucky Derby 2018

Churchill Downs  – May 5^th, 2018

Race 12 - 6:50 PM (EST)

Kentucky Derby

Purse - $2,000,000

Distance - One And One Quarter Miles

Surface - Dirt

1 – Firenze Fire 2 – Free Drop Billy 3 – Promises Fulfilled 4 – Flameaway 5 – Audible 6 – Good Magic 7 – Justify 8 – Lone Sailor 9 –  Hofburg 10 – My Boy Jack

11 – Bolt D’oro 12 – Enticed 13 – Bravazo 14 –Mendelssohn 15 – Instilled Report 16 - Magnum Moon 17 – Solomini 18 – Vino Rosso 19 – Nobel Indy 20 – Combatant 21 – (AE)  Blended Citizen

 

The 144^th Kentucky Derby could be the most talented field of three year old horses I’ve seen…..well, ever.

Justify enters this race as the morning line favorite --- however it would not surprise me if UAE Derby winner #14 Mendelssohn becomes the favorite at the start of the race – take a look at his last start:

For those of you who don’t follow horse racing much – the UAE Derby is equal in purse money to the Kentucky Derby (2 Mill), so it’s not like this horse just clobbered a bunch of nobodies.

However…..there are a couple of very interesting strikes against this horse --- the UAE Derby is held in the Middle East….and this horse just got to Kentucky this past Thursday……I can’t imagine this horse isn’t due for some major jet lag!!

I have boots on the ground that tell me Mendelssohn looks ready --- however a UAE Derby winner has never won a Kentucky Derby (granted the UAE Derby is only 18 years old). Most UAE Derby winners don’t even come close…..still you can’t help but be intimidated with that Romp – that being said, Mendelssohn has won 4 out of 7 races….which is great, except two of his rivals this Saturday are undefeated.

The Next Prep race I’d like to look at is the Wood Memorial – where #18 Vino Rosso found the winner’s circle. Other contenders in this race are: #12 Enticed and #1 Firenze Fire.

Unfortunately for Firenze Fire he starts off the Kentucky Derby against the rail, and far better horses than he have been avalanched upon before the first turn and not been able to get out from under the wall of horses. I expect the same here.

Enticed – fades hard before they reach the final turn in this race….and the KY Derby is a longer race, so he’s not likely to pull off a victory (however Enticed could play a key factor in this race).

Finally Vino Rosso finishes strong….that being said I think Vino Rosso will need a lot of help to win against these other horses  - his post position isn’t much help.

Next let’s take a look at the Louisiana Derby which featured #8 Lone Sailor, #13 Bravaso,  #10 My Boy Jack and #19 Noble Indy.

Lone Sailor and Noble Indy put up a great fight for the finish line…..and with a slightly different trip I think they could have swapped finishes….My Boy Jack closes after going (by my eye) 11 wide and still finds a way to challenge…..meanwhile Bravaso finishes 8^th.

In my opinion these results are very similar to the Wood Memorial – some very solid horses here, but I don’t know if they have the resources to contend with the major players in this race.

***My Boy Jack did follow up after this race with a victory in the Lexington Stakes – and a lot of people seem to be stoked about this horse, I’m assuming because he’s a late closer. Truth be told I watched the Lexington Stakes and a horse by the name of Pony Up can “seriously” close….Pony Up didn’t qualify for the KY Derby, but I’ll be watching out for that horse.

Let’s move on to the Blue Grass Stakes – where 2017 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Champion #6 Good Magic picked up a victory against fellow contenders #2 Free Drop Billy and #4 Flameaway.

First of all, these horses all have very good post positions – however The Blue Grass Stakes year in and year out has been kind of a weird race – good horses often run poorly there – average horses will sometimes look unstoppable…..I mean it’s like a box of chocolates up in here – you never know what you’re going to get.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
is unhappy about coming out
of retirement for a
Forrest Gump Call back.

Coming into 2018 Good Magic looked like the “one” to beat….and then he finished 3^rd in the Fountain of Youth, and the Blue Grass Stakes win is solid but leaves me unconvinced.

The one thing I noticed most about this race is how well Good Magic stayed on the rail coming out of the final turn….as you watch these next few races you’ll see dominant horses leave themselves vulnerable on the inside. Good Magic may end up being the kind of disciplined horse who can steal a victory here.

Moving to the Florida Derby – Contenders #3 Promised Fulfilled, #5 Audible, #9 Hofburg:

The Florida Derby could provide us with some clues about how the Kentucky Derby will play out – you’ll notice Promised Fulfilled goes on a suicide run at 21.95 Quarter Mile before falling into a deep fade……I think they’ll run a similar style here……however if they have some patience...maybe a different outcome??

Audible and Hofburg both look like very solid contenders – I think both would need some help to win the Kentucky Derby, but I think either of these horses could crack the top 3.

Moving West to Arkansas  - Contenders #16 Magnum Moon, #17 Solomini, #20 Combatant.

First of all – kudos to the announcer for having Bad Moon on the Rise in his back pocket for the end of the race.

Next – Unlike the Blue Grass Stakes ALL of these horses have less than stellar starting positions…..sheesh Kentucky look after your own much?!?!

I believe Magnum Moon is a real contender in this race – and with Morning odds at 6/1 that’s not a bad price…..Magnum Moon enters this race undefeated  -- however he has two lightning fast horses on his inside and I don’t know that Magnum Moon will be able to put himself in a position to win – he’ll need help.

The two lightning fast horses I’m referring too are Santa Anita Derby Winner  #7 Justify and 2^nd place finisher #11 Bolt D’Oro. See for yourself.

From what I understand – Bolt D’Oro (who finished 2^nd in this race) was fast enough to defeat all of the horses who ran in the American Races…..the only horse that could have beat Bolt D’Oro did – and that was Justify.

Undefeated in 3 lifetime races, Justify enters this race as the Morning Line favorite.  

The “big” Strike against this horse is that he hasn’t raced a lot – most of these horses have almost twice as many outings as Justify (Mendelssohn is 4 out of 7 lifetime)……my concern is this horse may not have the kind of discipline to win against this talented of a field – then again he made mistakes in the Santa Anita and still beat, perhaps, the next best horse in America – that’s the other side of the coin, this horse has scary, scary talent.

In my opinion if Justify can run his race --- he’s rightfully the favorite and most likely will win the KY Derby.

***Here’s how I see the race unfolding – NBC will start by showing you how much sound Mendelssohn makes…he’s a loud horse.

As the race begins -- If #3 Promises Fulfilled can get out of the gate cleanly I think  he’s got a shot at the very early lead, along with #4 Flameaway – the real question is “How fast will they hit the quarter mile”?

**If these opening speedsters hit it in 21 or even 22 – I think they’ll fade hard before the end of the second turn – if however (one of them) can take the lead at around 23 seconds….they may be able to avoid traffic and (at 30-1) find a way to finish in the top 4.

I’m being told Enticed will NOT look to be at the top of the pack at the beginning of the race, but instead run a more conservative race until the final turn…..I don’t believe it – He’ll either be up early, or my guess is not at all – I don’t think he has the endurance to catch some of these horses once they have the lead – if Entice runs with Flameaway  and/or Promises Fulfilled…..could be dangerous for Justify – seeing two (or three) horse battle for a fast early lead….could tempt Justify to run out of his comfort zone and THAT’S exactly how I think Justify could lose this race….that’s where his inexperience could cost him.

**If Audible or Good Magic can keep Justify on their right shoulder going into the first turn that could cause Justify to expend enough early energy to have him vulnerable by the end of the race – a lot of this race could depend on if these two horses get a better opening break than Justify.

That being said – I don’t think Audible or Good Magic are going to be comfortable with the early speed at the top of the pack – I think Justify will look to find a way to get past them early.

I really like Audibles position - and I like the patience he showed in the Florida Derby -- I personally am putting Audible higher than Mendelssohn. 

Bolt D’oro and Mendelssohn will be on the outside looking in – the good news is they’ll be able to pick their spots once the pack starts to separate going into the first turn…..the bad news is – if Justify can break free of Audible and Good Magic and put himself along the rail just behind some opening leaders  -- they may be in a position where they’ve lost too much ground early – to do any real damage late.

Magnum Moon, Noble Indy and Vino Rosso – will likely stick to the middle of the pack and hope to steal this race late – out of these three I like Magnum Moon  – but luck will be a big factor --- as these horses will need a parting of the Red Sea moment to have an opening coming out of the final turn….but with the right position and a lot of luck – one of these horses could steal it.

In closing – Mendelssohn looks amazing, and I’m told he’s ready…..and when I hear people around the track buzzing, I’ve learned to listen – but I just don’t like the late arrival from a different time zone – I don’t believe this horse will be ready for this kind of race. I’m kicking him down a few spots.

**I would like to add if Mendelssohn wins the KY Derby --- we could be witnessing something very special…..like greatest 3 year old of all time special.

I am counting on Justify to run his race and not lose his composure – I think he takes the lead going into the final turn and doesn’t look back.

I like Audible to hang close with the leaders and slide into 2nd  followed by Bolt D’oro and Magnum Moon.

Closing Speed likes:  Justify, Audible and Magnum Moon.

If I’m betting $34 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box: 5,7,11,16 = $24

$1 Exacta: 7, 11 with 6,9,14,18,19 = $10

Some Longshots -- (If there is rain – I would consider betting $27 on Longshots – as follows)

$2 Win - – Good Magic (Especially if it’s raining)

$5 Win – Audible (If raining)

$5 Win - Magnum Moon (if raining)

$5 Win - Nobel Indy (if odds are higher than 20/1)

$10 Win -  Promises Fulfilled (if odds are higher than 20/1)