Arkansas Derby 2017

Oaklawn Park

Race 11 - 6:18 PM

Arkansas Derby   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,000,000

Distance - One And One Eighth Miles

Surface – Dirt

1 – Rockin Rudy

2 – Classic Empire

3 – Silver Dust

4 – Petrov

5 – Grandpa’s Dream

6 – Lookin at Lee

7 – Sonneteer

8 – Rowdy the Warrior

9 – Untrapped

10 – One Dreamy Dude

11 – Conquest Mo Money

12 - Malagacy

                               

I’m going to start off by writing that I believe there could be a sizeable upset in the Arkansas Derby – the favorites have a few things going against them…..enough, I believe,  to cost them a trip to the winner’s circle.

And some of these long shots only need a little edge to steal a big race – and they may get it here at Oaklawn.

The Arkansas Derby serves as a rematch for several of these horses who last raced in the Rebel Stakes 28 days ago.

#12 Malagacy earned a commanding victory over #7 Sonneteer (2^nd), #9 Untrapped (3^rd), #4 Petrov (4^th), #3 Silver Dust (5^th) and #6 Lookin at Lee (6^th).

See Video:

As the announcer so aptly stated there were three noses on the wire for 2^nd place – and I believe one of these three horses could be the one to steal a victory here in the Arkansas Derby.

Before I “show my work” on the upset – here’s a quick briefing on the field.

#1 Rockin Rudy – 1 victory in 3 career starts , I think he’ll be overwhelmed by the talent here. If he somehow breaks from the gate well and grabs the rail and sets the early pace….he could position himself for a top three spot…..but I just don’t think it’s going to happen.

#2 Classic Empire – He’s the Favorite in this race - currently going off at 8/5. This son of Pioneer of the Nile (half-brother to Grand Slam Champion American Pharoah)  enters this race as the Breeders Cup Juvenile Champion , BUT most recently 3^rd place finisher in the Holy Bull Stakes.

An additional issue I see for this horse is that he last ran 70 days ago – and this race is set up to be a kind of Boom or Bust for Classic Empire. He’s got a great post, but I’m concerned he either peaked too soon (his 2 year old season) or that he’ll have too much rust coming into this one…..or both!

From a bettors standpoint I think you either bet against him heavy……or you sit on your hands…i.e. not bet at all.

Or, instead of sitting your hands, you could hold a giant rabbit
Happy Easter everyone.

#3 Silver Dust (1 win in 4 attempts) and #6 Lookin at Lee (2 Wins in 8 attempts) – neither have shown me enough to win in this one.

#4 Petrov – 1 win in 5 attempts – I thought he had a very tough trip in his 4^th place finish…..he got bunched up in traffic coming out of the final turn and it seemingly took forever for him to find a gap to run through……I love his starting spot…..but I HATE that he only has one victory. 12/1 odds – worth a look!

#5 Grandpa’s Dream – 1 win in 4 races – 30/1 odds – in a race with a possible upset he may be worth a $2 bet…..but I think you and Grandpa will both be dreaming at that point.

#7 Sonneteer – He REALLY caught my attention with his 2^nd place finish in the Rebel Stakes and I was ready to GUARENTEE a big finish from this horse……I mean a BIG GUAAAAAA-----ROOOONNN---TEEEEE this horse was going to do something special here in the Arkansas Derby…..and then I reviewed his full history.

0 wins in 9 Races…….I mean that ZERO feels REALLY PUNCTUATED!

Like REALLY ZERO

I do think there’s an upset brewing here…..and 15/1 odds looks mighty nice…..but ZERO Wins…Zero.....I could be mumbling that all during the race.

#8 Rowdy the Warrior – he’s going off at 30/1 and has 1 victory in 9 races. Which of course makes it even more difficult to forget that ZERO sitting with Sonneteer.....I mean even Rowdy the Warrior a horse clearly with some kind of complex could put together 1 win.

Likely you’ll see Rowdy the Warrior begin at the back of the pack….and finish there as well.

#9 Untrapped – 1 win in 5 attempts – this horse is very good at finishing 2^nd or 3^rd --- he could be the upset contender here but I’m not loving his starting spot.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
refers to himself as
One Dreamy Dude
on his dating profile -
at JC Date
Jungle Cats Date

#10 – One Dreamy Dude – 0 Wins in 6 Attempts --- I think he’s basically a part of the field so that I have material for Strangely Sensitive Cheetah.

#11 Conquest Mo Money – 3 wins out of 4 attempts – and he finished 2^nd in the Sunland Derby. In the Sunland Derby he was forced to go far wide in the first turn and it really cost him ground he couldn’t make up --- he’s sitting at 15/1 and he very well could pose as an upset threat!

#12 Malagacy – Undefeated in 3 lifetime races – he’s definitely the horse to beat in this one, and in my opinion should still be considered the favorite in this race over Classic Empire.

So here is my breakdown of how I see this race going –

Malagacy “could” and likely will push to be a part of the early lead (i.e. the Pace) – Conquest Mo Money will do EVERYTHING in his power to make sure to keep Malagacy on his outside shoulder and not give Malagacy the opportunity to get an inside position…..this could be KEY.

If Malagacy goes for the rail and Conquest Mo Money succeeds in keeping him from getting it – both of these horses could come out of the final turn exhausted – leaving someone inside -- or someone with a reserve an opportunity.

That someone very well could be Classic Empire – who will have a shorter trip on the rail into the first turn and could (and should) position himself to have the inside track coming out of the final turn 

*IF both Malagacy and Conquest Mo Money are sucking wind --- he could breeze the final furlongs and take a solid victory….that is….unless he comes out flat, or he’s not up for the distance?!?!

IF (and this is a solid IF) Conquest Mo Money presents issues for Malagacy and both of them are wiped out coming out of the final turn AND Classic Empire comes out rusty – this makes way for a sizeable upset.

I SO BADLY want to go with Sonneteer but WHO picks a horse to win a HUGE Kentucky Derby Prep that has Zero Wins…….

This is what betting on Sonneteer feels like.....

I'm going with Petrov for the win....but I think there are a number of possible upsets here -- if you're betting tomorrow -- Be Brave!

Closing Speed likes:  Petrov / Malagacy / Classic Empire

If I’m betting $30 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box 4/2/11/12

$6 Win Bet #7

2013 Arkansas Derby

OAKLAWN PARK - April 13, 2013

Race 10 - 5:28 PM

Arkansas Derby   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,000,000

Distance - One And One Eighth Miles

1 – Carve

2 – War Academy

3 – Divine Ambition

4 – Falling Sky

5 – Den’s Legacy

6 – Heaven's Runway

7 – Texas Bling

8 - Frac Daddy

9 – Overanalyze

10 – Oxbow

The Arkansas Derby serves as a rematch of the Rebel Stakes for a healthy bounty of these horses, including #10 Oxbow, who finished 2^nd, #5 Den’s Legacy (3^rd), #7 Texas Bling (4^th), and #1 Carve (6^th).

Rebel Stakes:

To my surprise the horse getting all of the Morning Line Love is #2 War Academy – who has Oaklawn buzzing with comparisons to last year’s super contender Bodemeister.

Respect the Buzz!

Last year after only three relatively minor prep races, Bodemeister successfully won the Arkansas Derby (before finishing 2^nd in the KY Derby and Preakness). 

War Academy enters the fray with two allowance race victories, and a fourth place finish in the Grade II San Vicente --- so why is he the favorite again??

One thing I have learned to respect is a certain “buzz” about a promising three year old horse – and it wouldn’t surprise me if the “promise” of War Academy comes to fruition (when you hear this kind of buzz you should listen)…..but I certainly don’t see this horse as a 2-1 favorite, especially considering that most of the field has been better seasoned here at Oaklawn (see Rebel Stakes), and this will be War Academy’s first attempt at this track.

In fact unlike a number of other Prep Races --- (I’m looking at you Florida Derby & Wood Memorial) – I see the Arkansas Derby as being a wide open race.

#3 Divine Ambition is starting at 20-1 – but finished with an impressive 2^nd place finish in the Rushaway Stakes. He has two victories in five attempts and with a little luck could certainly contend here (that is unless he's running in the Bluegrass Stakes -- he is entered in both races).

Strangely Sensitively Cheetah is
slightly concerned about the
Religious Theme of 3,4 and 6....

#4 Falling Sky returns from a third place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby--- finishing well behind “The Monster” Verrazano – and a scrappy Java’s War (who will be contending in the Bluegrass Stakes). 

Falling Sky is going off at 10-1 and I’m not convinced he isn’t better prepared than the favorite.

#6 Heaven’s Runway is no chump. In the Southwest Stakes he finished behind Super Ninety Nine and Fear the Kitten – but ahead of Rebel Stakes winner Will Take Charge (finished 6^th). Keep in mind the Southwest Stakes was a very muddy affair that day – and Heaven’s Runway could surprise if the ground is firm.  He may be the early speed in this race – and if he can muster the distance could be a lot of (profitable) trouble at 30-1!!

#8 Frac Daddy is coming off a disappointing 7^th place finish in the Florida Derby – it pains me to write this because I was a big fan of Frac Daddy’s….um….Daddy – Scat Daddy – but Frac Daddy doesn’t appear to have enough talent to be a real contender here. He does strike me as a horse that may be a late bloomer, and develop into a class horse over the next year.....then again I may just be holding on to some false hope for this horse.

I believe, third favorite (4-1) #9 Overanalyze could be primed for a big run here. He returned from hiatus (after winning the Remsen Stakes in November) – and ran a predictably rusty 5^th place finish in the Gotham Stakes in March.

Overanalyze showed a lot promise back in November – but his last outing certainly doesn’t inspire confidence.

And of course let’s not forget that Oxbow only lost the Rebel Stakes by a nose -- in my opinion he doesn't have the buzz....but he does have the experience -- and that could be the real difference here.

As they enter the final stretch it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Oxbow and Overanalyze leading the charge, with Den’s Legacy somewhere in the top 5….the question is will another horse (like Heaven’s Runway) completely surprise here – will the buzz around War Academy be true or be quieted??

Throw a dart in this one – it’s practically wide open.

I’m going with some consistency and taking Oxbow to win this one – but I’m taking a surprise with Falling Sky Second and Overanalyze third.

Closing Speed likes: 10,4,9

At the betting booth I like

$2 Exacta – 9,10 w 3,4,6, = $6

$2 Win Bets on – 3 & 4 = $4

Total $10

The Bluegrass Stakes have never been especially kind to me…….

But Closing Speed likes:

Java’s War / Uncaptured  & West Hills Giant.

I like

$1 Exacta  – 4,7 w 1,11,12 = $6

$2 Win Bets on – 11, 12 = $4