2014 Rebel Stakes

OAKLAWN PARK - March 15, 2014

Race 10 - 6:04 PM

Rebel S.   (Grade II)

Purse - $600,000

Distance - One And One Sixteenth Miles

Surface – Dirt

Jet Cat

Ride On Curlin

Tapiture

Strong Mandate

Hoppertunity

Sheltowee’s Boy

Street Strategy

Kobe’s Back

I feel it’s important to offer some forewarning that the forecast for this race is WET – and that can certainly alter how some Owners/Trainers will approach this race.

Owners of a horse that is already in good shape to go to the Kentucky Derby and still has another “Big Race” in front of them, like the Arkansas Derby next month, may have their “Super Star” horse just get out and breeze the track without any real effort to win.

The idea here is to make sure your horse stays on the schedule they’ve made, but more importantly make sure their prize pony comes back in one piece....they may not care at all about winning.

I’ve also seen sub par horses go all out in the mud – because Jockey’s /  Trainer’s / Owners realize this may be their best opportunity to pull off an upset, and sneak into the Kentucky Derby….better to be invited and lose than to not be invited at all!!  So Bettors Beware.

I’m approaching this race with the idea that all of the horses will be putting in their best efforts – and I really hope they do because this race features several excellent horses.

For #2 Ride on Curlin, #3 Tapiture and #4 Strong Mandate the Rebel Stakes will serve as a rematch from the Southwest Stakes here at Oaklawn last month.

If you watch the video below you’ll see Ride On Curlin makes a very early move after the quarter mile but can’t sustain the momentum --- in the end he fades into a very close third with the bulk of the pack.

Arkansas Derby Winner, Preakness Winner and
apparently cornrow wearing gangsta!
You're my boy Curlin!

As I look at Ride On Curlin’s resume he seems to be most effective racing under a mile (with his only two wins coming at 6 Furlongs and 5 ½ furlongs).

As much as I want to believe that this horse will become a repeat of his sire Curlin (one of my favorites ever!) – and as much as I also want to believe that by going nearly 8 wide in the first turn of the Southwest he just got thrown off his game…… I advise not buying into the name here.

The Southwest Stakes were seemingly set-up perfect for Tapiture as he was able to claim the rail, set the pace and close out with a very solid victory.

Unless weather somehow becomes a factor – Tapiture has the perfect starting spot for a repeat performance and with a victory or a place in this race all but assures himself a spot in the Kentucky Derby.

Strong Mandate was the favorite in the Southwest Stakes however, in contrast to Tapiture, he had several obstacles to overcome. If you watch the race, he gets bumped coming out of the gate, squeezed and forced to fall back early which forces him to go well wide into the first turn.

They do a great job of recovering as they are less than a length  behind the leader at about ¾ of a mile, however he’s still forced to go five or six wide in the final turn – and Tapiture just had it too easy for Strong Mandate to be able to catch up.

Something to consider if the track is muddy – Strong Mandate has  a victory on a damp track and Tapiture is still untested on mud.

See Race:
Southwest Stakes 2014

#8 Kobe’s Back is currently the third favorite {7-2}, behind Tapiture and Strong Mandate – and this horse is an intrigue as he enters the Rebel Stakes. I really don’t like that this he’s traveled from California and he’s never raced at Oaklawn – especially since the two favorites have recently raced here.

I’m also concerned that his two victories were under a mile and in the Cash Call Futurity (the only race he’s run at 1 1/16^th a mile) he finished 10^th.

But when you stop looking at his paper and instead watch him run:

All I can envision now is a Gray late charging Monster barreling down the track and winning with ease! Tough call to make on this horse. He's the kind of horse that I think could finish 1st or finish almost dead last....very tough call here.He is also untested in the mud.

Finally there’s #7 Street Strategy – ridden by Calvin Borel -- who is giving good odds at 8-1. He’s the least experienced horse in the field with only two attempts – however out of those two races he has a victory and a 2^nd place finish – he also has some experience with a damp track, and his only two races have been here at Oaklawn.

His Sire (Juvenile Champion / Kentucky Derby Winner) Street Sense certainly had no trouble with distance, so one presumes this horse will be up for a mile 1/16.

His lack of experience concerns me, especially with this caliber of talent  – however I think this horse may only need a little help to pull off an upset here.

One last consideration (especially if the track is muddy) is #6 Sheltowee’s Boy who is currently going off at 15-1. He has two victories, a place and one 4^th place finish in four races.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
does NOT care for Mud and Rain
and neither does Tiny Cheetah!

He has a Win and a Place on Wet Tracks and for the most part though - I think Sheltowee’s Boy,  #5 Hoppertunity or #1 Jet Cat are outclassed here – but if the track is sloppy and you think the good horses will be holding back….you may want to consider Sheltowee’s Boy.

If the horses come out to run tomorrow – Closing Speed likes: Tapiture / Strong Mandate / Street Strategy.

My $1 Exacta Box is:  3,4, 7 = $6  -- the hope here is that a relative long shot will break up the two favorites.

2013 Arkansas Derby

OAKLAWN PARK - April 13, 2013

Race 10 - 5:28 PM

Arkansas Derby   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,000,000

Distance - One And One Eighth Miles

1 – Carve

2 – War Academy

3 – Divine Ambition

4 – Falling Sky

5 – Den’s Legacy

6 – Heaven's Runway

7 – Texas Bling

8 - Frac Daddy

9 – Overanalyze

10 – Oxbow

The Arkansas Derby serves as a rematch of the Rebel Stakes for a healthy bounty of these horses, including #10 Oxbow, who finished 2^nd, #5 Den’s Legacy (3^rd), #7 Texas Bling (4^th), and #1 Carve (6^th).

Rebel Stakes:

To my surprise the horse getting all of the Morning Line Love is #2 War Academy – who has Oaklawn buzzing with comparisons to last year’s super contender Bodemeister.

Respect the Buzz!

Last year after only three relatively minor prep races, Bodemeister successfully won the Arkansas Derby (before finishing 2^nd in the KY Derby and Preakness). 

War Academy enters the fray with two allowance race victories, and a fourth place finish in the Grade II San Vicente --- so why is he the favorite again??

One thing I have learned to respect is a certain “buzz” about a promising three year old horse – and it wouldn’t surprise me if the “promise” of War Academy comes to fruition (when you hear this kind of buzz you should listen)…..but I certainly don’t see this horse as a 2-1 favorite, especially considering that most of the field has been better seasoned here at Oaklawn (see Rebel Stakes), and this will be War Academy’s first attempt at this track.

In fact unlike a number of other Prep Races --- (I’m looking at you Florida Derby & Wood Memorial) – I see the Arkansas Derby as being a wide open race.

#3 Divine Ambition is starting at 20-1 – but finished with an impressive 2^nd place finish in the Rushaway Stakes. He has two victories in five attempts and with a little luck could certainly contend here (that is unless he's running in the Bluegrass Stakes -- he is entered in both races).

Strangely Sensitively Cheetah is
slightly concerned about the
Religious Theme of 3,4 and 6....

#4 Falling Sky returns from a third place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby--- finishing well behind “The Monster” Verrazano – and a scrappy Java’s War (who will be contending in the Bluegrass Stakes). 

Falling Sky is going off at 10-1 and I’m not convinced he isn’t better prepared than the favorite.

#6 Heaven’s Runway is no chump. In the Southwest Stakes he finished behind Super Ninety Nine and Fear the Kitten – but ahead of Rebel Stakes winner Will Take Charge (finished 6^th). Keep in mind the Southwest Stakes was a very muddy affair that day – and Heaven’s Runway could surprise if the ground is firm.  He may be the early speed in this race – and if he can muster the distance could be a lot of (profitable) trouble at 30-1!!

#8 Frac Daddy is coming off a disappointing 7^th place finish in the Florida Derby – it pains me to write this because I was a big fan of Frac Daddy’s….um….Daddy – Scat Daddy – but Frac Daddy doesn’t appear to have enough talent to be a real contender here. He does strike me as a horse that may be a late bloomer, and develop into a class horse over the next year.....then again I may just be holding on to some false hope for this horse.

I believe, third favorite (4-1) #9 Overanalyze could be primed for a big run here. He returned from hiatus (after winning the Remsen Stakes in November) – and ran a predictably rusty 5^th place finish in the Gotham Stakes in March.

Overanalyze showed a lot promise back in November – but his last outing certainly doesn’t inspire confidence.

And of course let’s not forget that Oxbow only lost the Rebel Stakes by a nose -- in my opinion he doesn't have the buzz....but he does have the experience -- and that could be the real difference here.

As they enter the final stretch it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Oxbow and Overanalyze leading the charge, with Den’s Legacy somewhere in the top 5….the question is will another horse (like Heaven’s Runway) completely surprise here – will the buzz around War Academy be true or be quieted??

Throw a dart in this one – it’s practically wide open.

I’m going with some consistency and taking Oxbow to win this one – but I’m taking a surprise with Falling Sky Second and Overanalyze third.

Closing Speed likes: 10,4,9

At the betting booth I like

$2 Exacta – 9,10 w 3,4,6, = $6

$2 Win Bets on – 3 & 4 = $4

Total $10

The Bluegrass Stakes have never been especially kind to me…….

But Closing Speed likes:

Java’s War / Uncaptured  & West Hills Giant.

I like

$1 Exacta  – 4,7 w 1,11,12 = $6

$2 Win Bets on – 11, 12 = $4