Belmont Stakes 2014 - Triple Crown Edition

BELMONT PARK - June 07, 2014

Race 11 - 6:52 PM

Belmont S.   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,500,000

Distance - One And One Half Miles

Surface - Dirt

1 – Medal Count

2 – California Chrome

3 – Matterhorn

4 – Commanding Curve

5 – Ride On Curlin

6 – Matuszak

7 – Samraat

8 – Commissoner

9 – Wicked Strong

10 – General A Rod

11 - Tonelist

For anyone who doesn’t know, the Triple Crown in Horse Racing means a horse must win the Kentucky Derby  (in Kentucky) on the first Saturday in May, The Preakness (in Baltimore) two weeks later and then The Belmont Stakes (in New York) three weeks after that.

It is a task that involves taking on possibly 19 other horses in the first race – an unusually brief rest (by modern terms) to win the second race, and finally (after still a relatively short rest) winning the longest race they have ever run (and likely will ever run), a mile and ½ , for the final leg of the Triple Crown.

And to top it off – you can only do this during your three year old season – meaning #1 California Chrome can’t come back and try this again next year.

Now who's up for some Atari Pong?

Many GREAT horses have fallen short since 1978 when Affirmed was the last horse to win the American Triple Crown --- and today we’ll see if California Chrome can break the drought.

Since April California Chrome has performed like clock-work – his recipe for the winners circle has been to stay towards the top of the pack until then accelerate out of the final turn like he’s been shot out of a cannon.

California Chrome has glided home, unchallenged, in his last three races – in my opinion his biggest challengers today will be Fatigue from racing in four different states (California , Kentucky, Maryland and finally New York) in almost two months, and the daunting distance of this race.

His competitors are solid --- but all things being equal he has shown that he can beat all of them on a consistent basis.

To be up front – I think when it comes to the Belmont Stakes – if you take the favorite out of it – it’s always kind of a wide open race – because you just have no idea how these horses are going to react to this distance.

#1 Medal Count – his last win was the Transylvania Stakes in April, he looked good in the Blue Grass Stakes, however when he’s faced more quality talent he has not finished well (8^th in the Kentucky Derby, 5^th in the Fountain of Youth)

#11 Tonelist recently finished 1^st in the Peter Pan Stakes here in New York – defeating 2^nd place #8 Commissoner and 4^th place #3 Matterhorn.

Tonelist made a point of setting the early pace in the Peter Pan --- and ran very well on a sloppy track.  I’m not crazy about this post position today – but he could push California Chrome early and that could leave Chrome winded in the final furlong.

#4 Commanding Curve was closing on California Chrome in the final furlongs in the Kentucky Derby. This is the horse that concerns me the most – however I’m only basing that on how strong he looked at the end of the Kentucky Derby. His last victory was in November – but this horse has a solid post position and if he can finish as strongly as he did a month ago – he might be able to upset a tired Cali Chrome.

#5 Ride On Curlin could be the second best horse in this race – however this will be his fourth race in less than two months, and I think asking for a Belmont Victory out of this horse is asking too much. I like that they’re running him as if he’s going for the Triple Crown….but I think this horse needs to rest for a few months and start building towards a solid four year old season.

#6 Matuszak – his last race was a 2^nd place finish in April. He has shown nothing to indicate this is his race, but he’s exactly the kind of horse that comes out of nowhere.

#9 Wicked Strong is considered the second favorite in this race – he won the Wood Memorial and finished 4^th in the Kentucky Derby. Reports from Belmont are that he has looked sharp in workouts…..and he does have an advantage of being more rested than California Chrome and only having to race in two states (Kentucky and New York) over the past two months.

#7 Samraat – has finished just behind Wicked Strong in his past two races (2^nd in the Wood Memorial / 5^th in the Kentucky Derby).  Samraat had won 5 straight races before meeting up with Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial .

I think Wicked Strong, Samraat and Tonelist are the three best New York has to offer – they are properly rested and have home court advantage here in New York – Wicked Strong closed very well in the Wood Memorial – so he deserves to be considered a solid threat.

#10 General A Rod – similar to Ride On Curlin – this horse will be running in all three Triple Crown races and I have a lot of respect for racing like you’re going for it all. The General finished 4^th in the Preakness and 11^th in the Kentucky Derby. Solid horse – but he comes in with no advantages and just as fatigued as the Favorite who has beaten him soundly.

When the  bell rings and the gates fly open – I look for Samraat, Tonelist and California Chrome to set up shop at the top of the pack – pace will be incredibly important in this race – if these top three horses start dueling early and set a half mile pace under 48 seconds…..it could disastrous if you’re hoping for a Triple Crown bid.

As the come out of the final turn I’ll be looking for California Chrome to separate from the pack – I think he’ll be able to own the rail the entire race so he could put about 4 or more lengths between him and the rest as the head for home.

At this point we’ll see if Samraat or Tonelist are still in the hunt and pushing Cali Chrome or if they’ve begun to fade – in stretch for home I’ll start looking for Wicked Strong and Commanding Curve to start closing --- at it will simply come down to how fatigued California Chrome is, and if he has the fight to hold off any of the late closers.....or if one of these horses just "has" the distance in him?? As I stated it's more wide open then most might think.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah would
love a California Chrome victory
and a Nathan's Hot Dog with
Chili Fries......

What can I say….I’d love to see California Chrome win a Triple Crown…..

Closing Speed likes: California Chrome / Commanding Curve / Tonelist

If I’m betting $26 on this race I like:

$10 – Wicked Strong to Win

$10 – Commanding Curve to Win

$6 – Exacta Box – California Chrome / Tonelist / Commanding Curve

Preakness 2014

PIMLICO - May 17, 2014

Race 12 - 6:18 PM

Preakness S.   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,500,000

Distance - One And Three Sixteenth Miles

Surface - Dirt

1 – Dynamic Impact

2 – General A Rod

3 – California Chrome

4 – Ring Weekend

5 – Bayern

6 – Ria Antonia

7 – Kid Cruz

8 – Social inclusion

9 – Pablo Del Monte

10 – Ride On Curlin

#3 California Chrome enters this race as the 3/5 favorite – which means most people believe he’s got this race in the bag….and for good reason -  

California Chrome has won his last five races, many of them solid challenges. He is fresh off a strong Kentucky Derby victory – and for his style of racing he is in the perfect starting position (#3).

The only two things I can imagine preventing him from doing very well in this race is if the other horses purposefully box him in at some point and prevent him from escaping in traffic – it may seem unsportsmanlike, but I’ve seen mediocre horses do what they can to prevent a great horse from winning just to give themselves some kind of shot.

The other possible letdown would be if Jockey Victor Espinoza “asks” California Chrome to kick in at the end of the final turn and the horse just doesn’t have it in him this time.

Personally I believe that Espinoza is too good of a Jockey to let his horse get boxed in – and I also think California Chrome is going come out of the final turn firing on all cylinders -- so far this horse has run like clockwork.

It is very possible that California Chrome will go Wire to Wire in this race – meaning he’ll take the rail in the first turn and glide for most of the race until hitting the after burners coming out of the final turn and win this race by about 5 lengths. If all of this sounds a little too predictable or easy….what can I say he’s a 3/5 favorite?!?!

If (and it’s a big IF) #1 Dynamic Impact – can break very well, take the rail and push California Chrome wide in the first and final turns, and then find the strength to go toe to toe with the Kentucky Derby Champion down the stretch….he has a shot.

However if he doesn’t come out of the gate well – he could easily fall in the middle of the pack and never be heard from again – I also think he could try to keep up with a faster early pace then he’s prepared for and fade badly coming out of the final turn.

#2 General A Rod is a solid horse – but hasn’t won a race since January. Unless he “finds his stride” or California Chrome loses his – I don’t see him pulling off an upset -- General A Rod strikes me as a horse who will do very well should he continue running over the next few years.

#4 Ring Weekend – is a Tapit horse….and Tapit horses always concern me. I think this horse “could” be a lot of trouble for California Chrome – but that’s only if Ring Weekend takes an early lead and never looks back, which was his recipe for the Tampa Bay Derby.

See Video

However Ring Weekend finished 2^nd against lesser competition in the Calder Stakes and it’s been 42 days since his last race. You could chalk an upset here to a horse bouncing back after a solid rest…..but I think it’s also likely this horse comes out rusty and finishes towards the back of the pack.

#5 Bayern – finished third in the Arkansas Derby and second in the Derby Trial Stakes. A solid horse – great jockey, but he seems out classed here.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
likes a Filly with an Attitude!

#6 Ria Antonia – the filly fresh off of her 6^th place finish in the Kentucky Oaks. She has two victories (including the Breeder’s Cup Fillies) – but hasn’t won a race since that one back in November. I think the Owners/Management believes there’s a lack of talent in this race and maybe Ria can compete better against the fellas – interesting.

#7 Kid Cruz – He’s won 3 out of his last 4 races including his last victory which was here at Pimlico. He’s a bit of an unknown and at 20-1 could be worth a $2 bet.

#8 Social Inclusion is currently going off as the Second Favorite – however he doesn’t have a lot of experience as he has only three career races (although he won his first two). His last race was a 3^rd place finish in the Wood Memorial 42 days ago.

I think most people are looking at his early speed as a sign he could be a challenger – but I disagree with him being the second favorite.

#9 Pablo Del Monte – he has won a 2 races in his 6 race career – he strikes me as a horse just happy to be here – I think 40-1 odds would be more suitable here – his  last victory was October 2013.

#10 – Ride On Curlin -  He has experience – 10 races – but he also doesn’t win much – Twice. He had a rough trip in the Kentucky Derby, but still finished a respectable 7^th – I think he could easily end up in the top 3 – I just don’t see him beating California Chrome if the Cali runs his race today.

Most people agree this is California Chrome’s race to lose – I think if there’s going to be a surprise it will be Ring Weekend or Kid Cruz……but it seems unlikely.

Closing Speed like: California Chrome / Ride On Curlin / Ring Weekend (3/10/4)

With these odds it’s difficult to make a bet – but….

$1 Exacta Box (3/7/8) = $6

$1 Pick 3 (beginning with the Race before the Preakness) – 1/3/4/6/7 with 3 with 1/2/3/4/5 = $25