Preakness 2014

PIMLICO - May 17, 2014

Race 12 - 6:18 PM

Preakness S.   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,500,000

Distance - One And Three Sixteenth Miles

Surface - Dirt

1 – Dynamic Impact

2 – General A Rod

3 – California Chrome

4 – Ring Weekend

5 – Bayern

6 – Ria Antonia

7 – Kid Cruz

8 – Social inclusion

9 – Pablo Del Monte

10 – Ride On Curlin

#3 California Chrome enters this race as the 3/5 favorite – which means most people believe he’s got this race in the bag….and for good reason -  

California Chrome has won his last five races, many of them solid challenges. He is fresh off a strong Kentucky Derby victory – and for his style of racing he is in the perfect starting position (#3).

The only two things I can imagine preventing him from doing very well in this race is if the other horses purposefully box him in at some point and prevent him from escaping in traffic – it may seem unsportsmanlike, but I’ve seen mediocre horses do what they can to prevent a great horse from winning just to give themselves some kind of shot.

The other possible letdown would be if Jockey Victor Espinoza “asks” California Chrome to kick in at the end of the final turn and the horse just doesn’t have it in him this time.

Personally I believe that Espinoza is too good of a Jockey to let his horse get boxed in – and I also think California Chrome is going come out of the final turn firing on all cylinders -- so far this horse has run like clockwork.

It is very possible that California Chrome will go Wire to Wire in this race – meaning he’ll take the rail in the first turn and glide for most of the race until hitting the after burners coming out of the final turn and win this race by about 5 lengths. If all of this sounds a little too predictable or easy….what can I say he’s a 3/5 favorite?!?!

If (and it’s a big IF) #1 Dynamic Impact – can break very well, take the rail and push California Chrome wide in the first and final turns, and then find the strength to go toe to toe with the Kentucky Derby Champion down the stretch….he has a shot.

However if he doesn’t come out of the gate well – he could easily fall in the middle of the pack and never be heard from again – I also think he could try to keep up with a faster early pace then he’s prepared for and fade badly coming out of the final turn.

#2 General A Rod is a solid horse – but hasn’t won a race since January. Unless he “finds his stride” or California Chrome loses his – I don’t see him pulling off an upset -- General A Rod strikes me as a horse who will do very well should he continue running over the next few years.

#4 Ring Weekend – is a Tapit horse….and Tapit horses always concern me. I think this horse “could” be a lot of trouble for California Chrome – but that’s only if Ring Weekend takes an early lead and never looks back, which was his recipe for the Tampa Bay Derby.

See Video

However Ring Weekend finished 2^nd against lesser competition in the Calder Stakes and it’s been 42 days since his last race. You could chalk an upset here to a horse bouncing back after a solid rest…..but I think it’s also likely this horse comes out rusty and finishes towards the back of the pack.

#5 Bayern – finished third in the Arkansas Derby and second in the Derby Trial Stakes. A solid horse – great jockey, but he seems out classed here.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
likes a Filly with an Attitude!

#6 Ria Antonia – the filly fresh off of her 6^th place finish in the Kentucky Oaks. She has two victories (including the Breeder’s Cup Fillies) – but hasn’t won a race since that one back in November. I think the Owners/Management believes there’s a lack of talent in this race and maybe Ria can compete better against the fellas – interesting.

#7 Kid Cruz – He’s won 3 out of his last 4 races including his last victory which was here at Pimlico. He’s a bit of an unknown and at 20-1 could be worth a $2 bet.

#8 Social Inclusion is currently going off as the Second Favorite – however he doesn’t have a lot of experience as he has only three career races (although he won his first two). His last race was a 3^rd place finish in the Wood Memorial 42 days ago.

I think most people are looking at his early speed as a sign he could be a challenger – but I disagree with him being the second favorite.

#9 Pablo Del Monte – he has won a 2 races in his 6 race career – he strikes me as a horse just happy to be here – I think 40-1 odds would be more suitable here – his  last victory was October 2013.

#10 – Ride On Curlin -  He has experience – 10 races – but he also doesn’t win much – Twice. He had a rough trip in the Kentucky Derby, but still finished a respectable 7^th – I think he could easily end up in the top 3 – I just don’t see him beating California Chrome if the Cali runs his race today.

Most people agree this is California Chrome’s race to lose – I think if there’s going to be a surprise it will be Ring Weekend or Kid Cruz……but it seems unlikely.

Closing Speed like: California Chrome / Ride On Curlin / Ring Weekend (3/10/4)

With these odds it’s difficult to make a bet – but….

$1 Exacta Box (3/7/8) = $6

$1 Pick 3 (beginning with the Race before the Preakness) – 1/3/4/6/7 with 3 with 1/2/3/4/5 = $25

Tampa Bay Derby - 2014

TAMPA BAY - March 08, 2014

Race 11 - 5:25 PM

Tampa Bay Derby   (Grade II)

Purse - $350,000

Distance - One And One Sixteenth Miles

Surface – Dirt

Ring Weekend

Surfing U.S.A.

Matador

Coltimus Prime

Conquest Titan

Vinceremos

East Hall

Cousin Stephen

My Kodiak Warrior

Tuscan Getaway

There are two reasons I believe these horses entered the Tampa Bay Derby – the first is to secure a portion of the 85 Kentucky Derby points available in this race…..the winner would essentially be secured a spot to the big dance in May.

The second (and no less important) reason is that none of these horses want to be in a position of “needing” points and have to face Cairo Prince in the Florida Derby.  He may be the Prince of Cairo – but he’s currently the KING of Florida.

As you’ll see in the video – #5 Conquest Titan lands a distant second against Cairo Prince in the Holy Bull….and Conquest Titan could likely be the favorite in this race when the gates open.

Link to Video:
Holy Bull Stakes

It will be very interesting to see what the strategy will be for any number of these horses.

There are three long shots who I believe will attempt to take the lead going into or coming out of the first turn.

#1 Ring Weekend has the rail and while going for the early lead isn’t necessarily his racing style I think due to his post position and the competition around him – they may attempt to stay at the front of the pack.

My biggest concern with Ring Weekend is that he was sired by Tapit….and Tapit horses always seem to get the best of me.

Ring Weekend also has three races at this distance -- and he won his last one....he's in a great spot to surprise here.

#4 Coltimus Prime is another long shot (15-1) that could bolt for an early lead in this race – in fact I expect him to set the early pace – in his last outing he ran out of gas and finished 2^nd so stamina could be a concern. He also hasn’t raced in 90 days….which for the younger horses usually means they’ll struggle.

And finally #10 Tuscan Getaway (20-1) will also likely run with the early pack. This horse intrigues me and not just because his name makes me think of Diane Lane in Under the Tuscan Sun -- which is distracting in all the best possible ways.....

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
thinks a Zebra dinner under the
glow of the Savannah Moonlight
with Ms. Lane
is the purrfect evening.

Tuscan Getaway went wire to wire in his last outing (an Allowance Race) at this same distance – however that was 112 days ago. I think this is a lousy starting point (10^th) for this horse – however his style of racing is perfect for an upset here….and if in the past 112 days he’s built up his stamina….He could steal this one - but needs a ton of help here!

However a lot of this race could depend on how the favorite 

#2 Surfing U.S.A. approaches this race. He’s also very comfortable being a front runner – but in his last race he gave way and finished 2^nd at this same distance. I’m not a big fan of Surfing USA as the favorite here – he could easily fall into a speed duel that leaves him winded in the final furlongs with any of the longshots OR he may have trouble pulling back early and taking on the late closers at their own game.

#8  Cousin Stephen is yet another horse that could decide to challenge early. Cousin Stephen led the way in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and as they hit the final turn he just seems to run out of steam as #6 Vinceremos sneaks out a victory by surviving on the inside.

Cousin Stephen also doesn’t have the best starting post for his style of racing and I have similar concerns of a speed trap or lack of stamina like I do with Surfing USA.

#6 Vinceremos impressed me in the Sam F. Davis – because it appeared like he was going to fade out of contention as they entered the final turn….but as they exited the turn he slingshots back into the lead and has enough fight to hold everyone else off.

Link to the race:
Sam F. Davis Stakes

I like a horse that has a fighting spirit, I like that this horse is capable of running a “smart” race – and I like that he’s won his past two races….I’ll be very interested to see how jockey Edgar Prado approaches this challenge – because I don’t know how comfortable this horse will be running in the middle of the pack getting dirt kicked in his face…..and the battle for the “early jump” could force any number of horses to run far wide or get bottled up in traffic.

I may be emphasizing the battle for the “early jump” too much in this race but I have to think the second favorite #5 Conquest Titan would happily watch the bulk of his competitors wear themselves out in the first mile of the race so he can breeze by them in the last 16^th.

Conquest Titan is a very solid late charging colt and in my opinion is in a perfect spot to pull off the victory here – I’m a little concerned he didn’t finish closer to Cairo Prince in his last outing….however if he wins here – that may be a strong indication of just how good Cairo Prince is.

They say Pace makes the Race – and I believe that to be absolutely key in this one --

Closing Speed likes:

Ahem....still distracted....But as far as the horses go -

Closing Speed likes:
Conquest Titan / Vinceremos / Surfing USA   (5/6/2)

However I would bet this race differently - because I like a "long shot" to break up the favorites.and Ring Weekend is the one that concerns me.

$1 Exacta Box - 5/6/1 = $6 -- is how I might approach it.