Santa Anita
March 11, 2017
Race 5 - 2:04 PM
San Felipe Stakes (Grade II)
Purse – 400,000
Distance - One And One Sixteenth Miles
Surface – Dirt
1 – Term of Art
2 – Vending Machine
3 – Ann Arbor Eddie
4 – Mastery
5 – Gormley
6 – Iliad
7 – Bluegrass Envy
There are two solid Kentucky Derby Prep races this
weekend – the first is The Tampa Bay Derby – but in my opinion the only horse
that will likely be a threat to contend in a Triple Crown Run would be #5 Tapwrit –
he enters the Tampa Bay Derby as the favorite and I think he’ll likely chalk up
a win in this one…..
However in the last few races I’ve written about – Upsets
have been the norm. This could be a year where some horses develop late and it
could be a very difficult season to predict!
Now let’s take a look at the San Felipe Stakes which I
believe will be a VERY competitive race.
#1 Term of Art – recently finished 4th in the
Robert B. Lewis Stakes here at Santa Anita,
he’s a career 2 for 7 and he’s going off at 20-1....I’m not a fan.
#2 Vending Machine – has 3 wins in 8 lifetime attempts –
he recently won (on Turf) here at Santa Anita 49 days ago – he’s also going off
at 20/1 -- and he’s worth a look if you
like the longshots. What I like about this horse is that he showed a lot of
poise in his last race….but I don’t think he has enough talent to take on this
group.
 |
| Strangely Sensitive Cheetah loves candy.... but would be concerned if this Vending Machine had any "pop" out. |
#3 Ann Arbor Eddie – is going off at 8/1 – and has
enjoyed 3 wins in 5 Attempts – he was the FAVORITE in his last race the El
Camino Real and finished 2nd --- (although due to interference was
pushed back to a 4th place finish). – Ann Arbor Eddie will likely
look to control the pace at the lead and hug the rail in this one....but he’ll need help to win.
#4 Mastery – last time we saw this horse he was pulling
away with a 5 length win in the Cash Call Futurity in Los Alamitos. This horse
is Undefeated in 3 lifetime attempts….however it’s also been 91 days since he
raced last. He may be the best horse in this one…..but he may not be the best
prepared – this could be another race where the favorite looks rusty…..and
falls flat.
#5 Gormley – currently going off at 9/5, Gormely is the
second favorite in this race. His career
record is 3 wins in 4 attempts …. and he barely squeaked out a victory in the
Sham Stakes 63 days ago here at Santa Anita.
Sham Stakes:
I’m certainly impressed with both Gormley and American Anthem
-- they both show great early speed and
they both show a LOT of fighting spirit…..certainly two horses to keep an eye
on….from what I’m reading it’s likely we’ll see American Anthem in the Rebel
Stakes on Mar. 18th.
#6 Iliad – is currently the third favorite in this race
going off at 5/2 – he has 2 victories in 3 attempts and unlike Gormely and
Mastery, he has raced recently -- putting up a victory in the San
Vicente (here at Santa Anita) 27 days ago.
As you watch the video – here are some things I’d like to
point out – Iliad is a BEAST – he looks much larger than the other horses when
he reels around the 2nd turn, and he's probably still growing! He also has no problems keeping up
with a “hot” early pace (21 seconds) and then finishing with ease…….
Also I’d like to add – kudos to ownership for naming him
Iliad…..Classical, Mythical…even Horse Related…..I mean who names their prize
horses Gormley and Vending Machine??
**Well Gormley at least is a Sculptor...but Vending Machine??
Finally #7 Bluegrass Envy – comes in as the “Super”
longshot 50-1….despite excellent bloodlines (Any Given Saturday) and a much
better name than Gormley and Vending Machine…..what he doesn’t have is a win….in
5 attempts. He last raced 42 days ago finishing 6th. Young horses
like these can surprise, but I think the talent is too deep for him to compete.
To me the interesting thing about this upcoming race will
be how the horses deal with the early pace – will Gormley and Iliad go full out
in the first half mile and not have anything left for the last few furlongs –
if that were to happen I think this would help both Vending Machine and
Mastery.
However if the pace is more modest (late 23’s) than I
think we could see a nail biter between Iliad and Gormley with Mastery closing
in at the end.
Closing Speed likes: Iliad / Gormley / Mastery
If I’m betting $24 on this race I like:
$1 Trifecta Box: 2/3/5/6 = $24
*It’s a pricy bet…but if a long shot pulls off an upset , it
could be a solid ticket.
