The Preakness - 2015

Pimlico  - May 16, 2015

Race 13 - 6:18 PM

Preakness Stakes.   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,500,000

Distance - One And Three Sixteenth Miles

Surface – Dirt

American Pharoah

Dortmund

Mr. Z

Danzig Moon

Tale of Verve

Bodhisattva

Diving Rod

Firing Line

Like most anyone who follows horse racing – or even just tuned in to the Kentucky Derby, I believe this race is a three horse race – between the Win, Place and Show horses of the KY Derby – American Pharoah, Dortmund and Firing Line.

If you missed the Kentucky Derby:

#1 American Pharoah – looked his normal, fantastic self in the Kentucky Derby – running just as I (and many expected) to victory. Watching this horse run is a thing of beauty – he seems to effortlessly glide into the final stretch, and then he’ll give you another level that separates him from the rest of the pack. He struggled a little with the distance in the Kentucky Derby – which is not unusual for all horses his age, and since the Preakness is a slightly shorter race, he should be solid here.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
does NOT like the sounds of
Tabasco Cat!

The big concern is that he starts on the rail – where a horse hasn’t won the Preakness since Tabasco Cat in 1994.

#2 Dortmund looked gassed at the end of the Kentucky Derby – there are two distinct possibilities – he just wasn’t “feeling” it for the biggest race of his life or more likely he just isn’t meant for a distance over a mile and 1/8.  I believe it’s the latter – at this point in his life (and maybe for his career) – he can challenge and beat almost anyone at 1 1/16 miles or 1 1/8 miles – which means he can win a LOT of money in his career, but the Triple Crown races may be out of reach.

Then again, if the Kentucky Derby was just an off day – or he didn’t like the feel of the track and he can return to his earlier Spring Form – he could certainly challenge today.

Similar to American Pharaoh – his post position also comes with a bit of historical bad news – the last horse to win from the #2 spot was Snow Chief in 1986.

"13 Month Old Baby
broke the looking glass"

#3 Mr. Z – has 1 victory in 13 attempts, in the Kentucky Derby he finished 13 – the Preakness is Race #13!!!! If you’re more superstitious – than Stevie Wonder….than I suppose go for it – but Mr. Z (while he’s a quality horse) hasn’t shown enough talent to really compete with these horses.

#4 Danzig Moon – has 1 victory in 6 attempts – he finished 5^th in the KY Derby – I think he “could” squeak into the top three with a lot of help – but I just don’t see it happening.

#5 Tale of the Verve – has 1 victory in 6 attempts – however his only victory, was his most recent race at this distance. He comes in slightly more rested than the horses who raced in the KY Derby, and his odds are at 30-1 – which has my interest, however he’s never raced against this kind of competition.

#6 Bodhisattva – has a very cool name which means the following: (in Mahayana Buddhism) a person who is able to reach nirvana but delays doing so out of compassion in order to save suffering beings.

Is it just me – or did the owners give this horse a name that implies he lets others cross the finish line before him?? 

He has gone to Nirvana first in 3 out of 11 races – and his last race was a victory here at Pimlico.

Bodhisattva – is another horse who has never competed at this level – so 20/1 odds seems legit. I like his victory in Pimlico – but not against the top three.

#7 Diving Rod – enters the Preakness with 2 victories in 5 attempts – however one of his victories was in his last race the Coolmore Lexington Stakes over a month ago.

What concerns me about this horse is that he is rested compared to the big three and he was sired by Tapit – Tapit horses always concern me. I believe this horse “could” sneak into the top three with some help – but I still don’t see it.

#8 Firing Line – the closest we have to an upset in the Preakness would likely have to come from Firing Line who finished a very competitive 2^nd in the Kentucky Derby (so not much of an upset really).

Firing Line has a great post for this race and will be able to dictate his own race – he is a gutsy fighter of a horse – however in the “big” races he tends to always find a way to finish 2^nd --- against Dortmund he twice finished 2^nd by a nose – he finally surpasses Dortmund by several lengths only to finish 2^nd against American Pharoah.

If you’re going to bet against the favorite – Firing Line seems to be your best option, however I think he lacks a killer instinct.

As I see it – Firing Line has the most going for him, he’ll be able to dictate his entire race and unless he’s fatigued (which is possible) I think he’s a lock for 1^st or 2^nd place.

American Pharoah and Dortmund will need a VERY clean break from the gate and hope to prevent horses #3 through #7 boxing them in.

Dortmund prefers to be a front runner – so if he gets “really” boxed in, I don’t know if he has the maturity to overcome it – this could be a very bad set-up for this horse.

American Pharoah I have seen run with maturity – and if he gets boxed in early I believe he can still overcome those obstacles – the problem is, will he still have enough time to be patient and break clean from being boxed in and still catch Firing Line in the final stretch??

I’m hoping to see American Pharoah make a run at the Triple Crown – so no surprises here:

Closing Speed likes: 
American Pharoah / Firing Line / Dortmund

I think if you’re betting $20 you use a pick 3 in races #12, #13 The Preakness, and #14.

Here’s my Pick 3 using American Pharoah as the “anchor” of my line-up.

Race #12 – it’s WIDE open and has tons of long shot potential – pick any 5 horses you like here – I’m going with: #3, #4, #7, #11 and #14

Race #13 - #1 American Pharoah

Race #14 –Upsets very possible, pick any 4 horses – my choice:  #2, #4, #8, #9

Kentucky Derby 2015

Churchhill Downs – May 2, 2015

Race 11 - 6:45 PM

Kentucky Derby (Grade I)

Purse - $2,000,000

Distance - One And One Quarter Miles

Surface - Dirt

1 –  Ocho Ocho Ocho 2 – Carpe Diem                                                 3 – Materiality                                                   4 – Tencendur                                                   5 – Danzig Moon                                                              6 – Mubtaahij                                                                    7 – El Kabeir 8 – Dortmund 9 –  Bolo 10 – Firing Line

11 – Stanford 12 – International Star 13 – Itsknockout 14 – Keen Ice 15 – Frosted 16 – War Story 17 – Mr. Z 18 – American Pharoah 19 – Upstart 20 – Far Right 21 - Frammento

**First some fun facts to entertain your friends:

• If you like "betting" the jockey Victor Espinoza won the Kentucky Derby last year and is riding the favorite American Pharoah this year.
• Jockey Calvin Borel has won three out of the last eight Kentucky Derbies and is on board #7 El Kabir.
• Only three of these horses were sired by Kentucky Derby winners - (Ocho, Ocho, Ocho / 2007 Street Sense) // (Dortmund // 2008 Big Brown) and (International Star // 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus)
• I've checked several times and they misspelled Pharoah -- my auto spell is NOT happy.

Most experts agree this is one of the most competitive Kentucky Derbies we've seen in a long time. Two of these horses are undefeated, and three of these horses only have one loss!!            

                                     

I believe you can easily make cases for 7 or 8 of these horses….and that’s what I’m about to do.

Let’s begin with #2 Carpe Diem – his only loss was in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile (2^nd place) and that was his only loss in 5 races. Incidentally he was defeated by Texas Red who is off the Derby Trail.

Here is Carpe Diem’s last race - the Blue Grass Stakes:

(also featuring: #1 Ocho Ocho Ocho & #5 Danzig Moon)

Carpe Diem has been very impressive his entire career and the morning line has Carpe Diem at 8/1 odds – unfortunately he may have the most to overcome of all of the really quality horses. Carpe Diem will need a fast, clean break out of the gate and then to overtake the lead in the first turn. If he can accomplish that he’ll have a solid shot at going Wire to Wire in this one.

Unfortunately there are so many good horses in this race, I think he could easily get swallowed up in traffic before they hit the first turn and never find a way out.  Nobody is going to “help” this horse win.

Next to Carpe Diem is Florida Derby winner  #3 Materiality, who outlasted serious contender #19 Upstart.

Here is the Florida Derby:

(also featuring #12 Itsknockout & #19 Upstart)

Materiality enters this race undefeated – and his victory in Florida is impressive. He’ll have the same struggle as Ocho Ocho Ocho and Carpe Diem in that he’ll need to escape the starting  gate without error or his race could be over in less than 4 seconds.

Materiality is going off at 12-1 – I think fair odds would have him closer to 15 or 20 to 1. I don’t like his lack of experience….and he’ll need some luck in the beginning – but (similar to Carpe Diem) if he can escape the traffic and grab the rail early, he looks legit.

#6 Mubtaahij (means “elated” in Arabic” – however he’s an Irish Horse) absolutely crushed the competition in the UAE Derby – (for those who don’t know the UAE Derby is in Dubai) – See Here:

It’s not often we get the UAE Derby winner in the Kentucky Derby – so this is really cool! This horse brings a lot of mystery to the table and it would not surprise me if his odds go from 20-1 to somewhere around 10-1 or lower. Watching this race he looks like a monster to me (not the only one in this field though) ---- however most horses do not travel well – and Dubai to Kentucky is no easy trip, including the time change that I’m sure messes with a horses schedule.

He’s got everything going for him except the jet lag – I like this horse to be competitive, but a victory is asking a lot.

***Incidentally he's an Irish Horse -- and Irish Horses are always tricky -- for me they either seem to finish first (when I don't bet on them) or last (when I do).

#8 Dortmund is currently the 2^nd morning line favorite and for a number of very good reasons. He is undefeated in 6 races and has a fantastic post position. His last victory was the Santa Anita Derby – (also featuring #9 Bolo).

**As a side note Dortmund, twice squeaked out wins against #10 Firing Line.

Dortmund deserves to be a favorite in this race, however I don’t like the 3-1 morning odds. I don’t think he’s seen enough competition, and I think there’s too much talent in this race for him to be sitting at 3-1.

#12 International Star is currently going off at 20-1 – and this may be the horse flying under the radar. His lifetime record is 5 wins in 9 races – however he’s won his last three. Here he is duking it out in the Louisiana Derby:

(also featured: #11 Stanford, #14 Keen Ice, & #16 War Story)

International Star has a great post position – he’s got a lot of experience and he’s on a 3 race winning streak – he’s very tempting at 20-1 – if his odds stay here or go higher, you should really consider at least wagering $2 on this one.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
says the Cold Never Bothered
Him Anyway......

 Going off at 15-1 is Wood Memorial Winner #15 Frosted – I personally am not enamored with Frosted, and not just because when I think of his name I think of a very popular Disney Tune……I think the general consensus was that #7 El Kabeir would finally put his talent together and win the Wood Memorial, instead he came in a distant 3^rd, so Frosted was a bit of a surprise. 

See Wood Memorial: (also featuring #4 Tencendur and #7 El Kabeir)

Frosted only has 2 victories in 7 attempts and I would need to see odds north of 20-1 before even considering this horse.

Finally we come to the favorite #18 American Pharoah – winner of the Arkansas Derby, and a horse who has also won 4 of his last 5 races.

(Arkansas Derby – also featuring #17 Mr. Z and #20 Far Right)

The expectation is that American Pharoah will patiently wait in the opening stretch to find the right spot and then slowly move to the left….he’ll have ample time to do it from the 18^th spot, and he should be able to dictate where he'll be going into the first turn.

He’ll go wide in the first turn and at that point we’ll find out what kind of competition he’ll be looking at……did Carpe Diem or Materiality find a way to survive the opening …if they did American Pharoah will need to have the race of a lifetime….if they didn’t, things are looking up for American Pharoah.

Coming out of the first turn American Pharoah will be close to the lead –(a length or a few lengths off) and we’ll see if anyone is there to challenge him – likely Dortmund, Firing Line (don’t forget this horse) or International Star – all could be a few lengths ahead  or even with him as they hit the second turn.

If all of the major contenders (except Mubtaahij) are behind American Pharoah as they come out of the second turn and head for home…..then I believe only Mubtaahij stands a real chance at catching this horse from behind.

If Dortmund, Firing Line or International Star have the inside (and American Pharoah is forced wide in the final turn) and any of these horses have a length or two ahead of American Pharoah….it could be a nail-biting finish!!

Closing Speed likes: American Pharoah / Firing Line and Dortmund

If I’m betting $24 on this race I like:

$1 Exacta Box: 2,3,18 (Carpe Diem / Materiality/ American Pharoah) = $6

$1 Exacta Box: 6,10,19 with 8, 18 = $6

$1 Exacta Box: 8,18 with 6,10,19 = $6

$2 – to win – 20, 19, 6 = 6

San Felipe Stakes 2015

San Felipe Stakes (Grade II)
Purse $400,000
Distance 1 1/16 miles

Lord Nelson
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Dortmund
The Gomper
Kenjisstorm
Prospect Park
Bolo
Pulmarack
Sir Sampson
Pain and Misery

#3 Dortmund enters this race as an undefeated (4 for 4) morning line 8/5 favorite -- below is the video of his last thrilling victory (by a nose). in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

Dortmund is a deserving 8/5 favorite - however in his last two races he was really pushed by Firing Line, (who is looking for any race that doesn't involve Dortmund right now) -- the Robert B. Lewis Stakes also didn't have many horses racing....these are very mild concerns -- it is likely Dortmund will be the early leader and finish this race uncontested.

However #1 Lord Nelson,  #2 Ocho Ocho Ocho and #6 Prospect Park may prove to be worthy challengers ---

Lord Nelson has won 3 of 5 races including his last outing The San Vicente Stakes, here at Santa Anita.

I kind of miss Ocho Cinco

Ocho Ocho Ocho has been out of racing for over 100 days -- but his last race was a solid victory in the Delta Jackpot.

And finally Prospect Park ran with a lot of patience and confidence (a victory over #4 The Gomper) in an allowance race in late January.

I would love to offer up a big upset here but -- I think Dortmund will run away with this one. I think Prospect Park could surprise -- but at 4/1 odds that isn't much of a game changer.

Closing Speed likes: Dortmund, Prospect Park and Lord Nelson

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah thinks
Closing Speed should choose
Pain & Misery -- because
that's what his betting advice
usually is.

Robert B. Lewis Stakes & Withers Stakes 2015

For a number of reasons I thought I'd skip writing about horse racing this year - my original goal, nearly 7 years ago,  was to champion a sport that (for a number of reasons) doesn't get the positive attention it deserves.

When I began writing I had really hoped by some stroke of luck I might cover a Triple Crown Winner from the his (or her) first big stakes victory to the walk off victory in the Belmont.

Move Along Nothing
to see here!

And a couple of times we came close - Big Brown, I'll Have Another and California Chrome almost did it.

And as the racing began in 2015 -- I approached it with cynicism -- in my memory the early three year old races seemed rarely competitive and also were seemingly filled with horses that were unlikely to be heard of once the "real" races began.

(Sadly) as I approached 2015 - I figured what's the point -- the populous is correct about Horse Racing there's nothing to see here....let's all just show up in May for two races and a call it a sport.

And then I saw three of the best races I've seen in a long time ---

The first race took place back in December - which was the Los Alamitos Futurity -- this features an incredible three horse finish of Mr. Z, Dortmund and Firing Line!

The rematch of two of these horses took place in Santa Anita just this past Saturday (Feb. 7) - between Dortmund and Firing Line in a rivalry rematch certainly worth watching!

For a little more insight on these rivals:

Dortmund was sired by Big Brown who won the 2008 KY Derby and Preakness - and in my opinion was the closest horse we've had in 15 years to winning the Triple Crown.

Firing Line was sired by Line of David - who was a very solid horse - winning the 2010 Arkansas Derby but failing to really compete in the Triple Crown races.

And here is the Rematch -

And finally one of the best finishes I've seen in a long time -- you'll likely need to watch this one twice.

Far from Over (so aptly named in this last outing) was sired by Blame who is the only horse to have ever defeated (fan favorite - the Queen of Racing herself) Zenyatta in the 2010 Breeders Cup Classic.

My feelings about these races and horse racing can pretty much be summed up here ---

Due to time limitations I may change how I approach my blog but you can be sure I will remain consistent in two things -- 

#1 This guy will still be apart of the blog - 

Strangely Sensitively Cheetah
does not like change....or
being at the end of the blog!

#2 My betting suggestions should still probably be ignored.

These very interesting prospects, Dortmund, Firing Line and Far From Over may have made me an offer I can't refuse.