Kentucky Derby 2023

Churchill Downs  – May  6th, 2023
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $3,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface - Dirt 

1 – Hit Show 2 – Verifying 3 – Two Phil’s 4 – Confidence Game 5 – Tapit Trice 6 – Kingsbarns 7 – Reincarnate 8 –  Mage 9 –  Skinner 10 –  Practical Move

11 – Disarm 12 – Jace’s Road 13 – Sun Thunder 14 – Angel of Empire 15 – Forte 16 – Raise Cain 17 – Derma Sotogake 18 – Rocket Can 19 – Lord Miles 20 – Continuar 21 - Cyclone Mischief 22 - Mandarin Hero 23- King Russell

I’ll begin with the Morning Line Favorite (3-1)  #15 Forte – I believe this horse has a legitimate chance to become only the 2^nd horse in history (following American Phoaroh) to win the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and the Triple Crown – the Kentucky Derby is, in my humble opinion, his to lose.

Forte has won 6 out of 7 lifetime races, including four Grade I Stakes races and a Grade II stakes race. His only "non-win" was in July 2022.

Forte runs with the consistency of a computer simulation – He breaks well, he runs in traffic with poise and he closes like a modish bad boss from Glengarry Glen Ross!

He will find his spot near the top of the pack for most of the race and then turn it on for the win once he hits the final stretch. 

He deserves to be the favorite – he has a solid post position and the leading Rider in the US - Irad Ortiz, Jr. (who has never won a Kentucky Derby).

For a look at how Forte runs, here's the Florida Derby (including #8 Mage and #21 (AE) Cyclone Mischief.

 

The next favorite is #5 Tapit Thrice currently set at 5-1 – (when I say his name it makes me think of the song Knock Three Times on the ceiling if you want me…..c’mon, Tony Orlando & Dawn?!?!)

You people don't know what you're missing!

I digress – Tapit Thrice has won 4 out of 5 lifetime races – but his only loss was his debut race. Tapit Thrice usually prefers to sit at the back of the pack and make a late bolt for the wire. 

If this horse can run his race and find a gap to burst through coming out of the turn – he "could" be plenty dangerous.

However here are my concerns with Tapit Thrice – I’m not a big fan of Blue Grass Stakes Winners to win the Kentucky Derby – they haven’t won a Kentucky Derby since 1991. And while he certainly has a solid post – I don’t think it’s going to help him much considering his racing style, I believe a post further out would have been preferable.

I think he’s going to get swallowed up in traffic early….and trapped behind a wall of horses late. His Jockey Luis Saez (2^nd best in the US) has also never “technically” won a Kentucky Derby – (he and Maximum Security were disqualified in 2019).

A look at Tapit Thrice and #2 Verifying in the Blue Grass Stakes:

#14 Angel of Empire is a morning line of (8-1) and his rider is Flavien Prat – who has one Kentucky Derby Victory (2019 -- the one Saez could have, should have had).  Angel of Empire has 4 lifetime wins in 6 attempts and is, most notably, the Arkansas Derby Winner.

Angel of Empire will be on the immediate inside post of the favorite Forte – and Flavien Prat could definitely use that to their advantage OR he could just ignore the favorite and run his best race.

Usually the outside horses will slowly mesh with the rest of the pack to save some ground before the first turn……I’ll be watching to see if Prat attempts to keep Forte on the outside as long as possible – maybe throw off the Favorite's game a little bit. Horse racing at its finest is a Chess Match being played at 40 mph.

Also Forte’s Rider Irad Ortiz could anticipate Prat using some strategy early and could pull Forte back early or see if they can cut Angel of Empire off before the 1^st turn……could be something – may be nothing at all - but at the beginning of the race....that's where I'll be focused.

Angel of Empire will likely attempt to keep close (and preferably inside) to Forte and “hope” they have the best gap on the inside to shoot when they hit the final stretch.

If Forte has a bad trip – I believe Angel of Empire has the best chance to win.

See Arkansas Derby – also including #23 (AE) King Russell and #7 Reincarnate:

There is a lot of buzz around # 17 Derma Sotogake the Japanese bred horse who won impressively at the UAE Derby (United Emirates). He has 4 wins out of a lifetime 8 races – but more to the point - he has won 3 out of his last 4.

There have been several years in the past when I’ve thought a UAE Derby winner might take home the Kentucky Roses (or at least challenge)…..however the highest finish we’ve seen in the past ten years has been 7^th place.

A Japanese Bred horse has never won a Kentucky Derby and neither has a UAE Derby winner - Derma Sotogake is both. 

 Currently I think this horse is going to be overbet – if he swings up to 20-1 – I’m more interested.

 UAE Derby – also includes #20 Continuar (JPN):

#2 Verifying  (15-1) has an ugly starting spot – but if this horse gets incredibly lucky he could own the rail and have a clear shot to the finish.  Will need a lot of luck to win – but could break the top 4.

#4 Confidence Game (20-1) – won the Rebel Stakes in February and hasn’t been heard from since. This is a pure long shot play – solid post and “who knows” what this horse can do at this point. Long layoffs are sometimes great…..usually not in the KY Derby….but this horse is a mystery at this point.

#6 Kingsbarns (12-1) the Louisiana Derby winner has a solid starting post and is undefeated in 3 starts. Despite the victory in the LA Derby – the pace was slow and it just didn’t impress. Flavien Prat was his jockey for the Louisiana Derby and he’s riding a different horse….so that should tell you something. Give me 30-1 here and I’d be more interested.

With this spot he could finish in the Top 4.

#8 Mage – (15-1) has only 3 lifetime races and has finished 2^nd, 4^th, and 1^st. Mage finished immediately behind the favorite Forte in the Arkansas Derby – I think he could be the most realistic "Longshot" of the bunch.

Our 38 Star Flag

My thinking is – that he has a very solid post position – there’s a chance Mage has a higher ceiling than some of the more experienced horses….we may have not seen this horse’s best race…..there’s also a chance that the lack of seasoning spooks Mage and he finishes in the back of the pack!

He’ll need a little luck as well – but if the others stall in traffic and he gets an opening – he could summon a victory in the Kentucky Derby. But I need these kinds of odds to keep my interest.

One important Kentucky Derby Trend to point out – Since 1882, only one horse (Justify = 2018) won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old…..that's 1882…meaning when the US only had 38 states!

 Kingbarns and Mage did NOT run as two year olds.

Entering the Kentucky Derby due to the many scratches is #22 Mandarin Hero - who finished 2nd behind Practical Move in the Santa Anita Derby. Out of lifetime 6 races this horse has 4 Wins and 2 Places. I think this horse has potential to land in the Top 4. This is a good horse that will be able to use this outside post to his advantage and may find a way to make you some money at 20-1.

Here’s how I see the race playing out –

#2 Verifying. #6 Kingsbarns and #7 Reincarnate will look to set the early pace.

Usually in these races one of the longshots goes on a suicidal pace…..and I usually know who it’s going to be….but this year I’m not sure......after a 10th glace I think it could be #7 Reincarnate and/or #21 Cyclone Mischief .... although that will be A LOT to ask from a horse posted at #21.

#14 Angel of Empire,  #17 Derma Sotogake and #22 Mandarin Hero will slowly blend into the pack and begin to work their ways towards the middle front.

#5 Tapit Trice – will likely be at the back of the pack…..perhaps even dead last until they reach the 2^nd turn.

If #2 Verifying can possess the rail and have an open avenue to the final stretch – he poses a threat…..BUT odds are he gets swallowed up by the pack – and can’t find a way out, until it’s too late.

#6 Kingsbarns – I think he has a better shot at placing himself in the perfect spot – but I think the more talented horses will push him and he’ll fade. I think likely coming out of the final turn is where the King runs out of steam.

#14 Angel of Empire  - if he can make the best move coming out of the final turn, either the perfect gap to burst through or making his way wide, but not having to go as wide as Derma Sotogake or Tapit Trice I now (after 5 scratches think it could be his race to lose).

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
has scratched from the 
149th KY Derby.
 

#17 Derma Sotogake – I've had a change of heart with this horse - primarily because I believe his post position has improved with so many scratches in this race. I don't trust this horse to win the race - but could DEFINITELY be a top 3 horse.

Finally #5 Tapit Trice – I’m just not a fan of a Bluegrass Stakes winner AND a late charging horse in the Kentucky Derby. I think he falls to the back of the pack – and makes a huge sweeping outside charge at the end and then he fades.

His Jockey is one of the best and may have Tapit Trice weave through traffic and find an inside hole to punch and I could be looking at having a big swing and a miss here….but I’m going to trust what I’ve seen over the past two decades. My gut tells me Tapit Trice comes out flat and finishes closer to 6th.

Closing Speed likes:  Angel of Empire, Mage, Mandarin Hero

History advices to toss out Kingsbarn, Mage, Tapit Trice, Derma Sotogake and Mandarin Hero as possible winners...however with so many great horses suddenly scratched it's very possible we see History "made" today or at least a very RARE winner from an unexpected Prep Race. 

Good Luck everyone.

If I’m betting $20 to $24 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box (with favorites): 5, 8, 14, 17 = $24

$1 Trifecta Box (The Bold call): 8,22, 14, 4, = $24

$1 Exacta Box: 17,14,22,8,5 = $20

Longshots:

$5 Win/Place – #17 = $10

$2 Across the Board - #4 – Confidence Game = $6
$2 Across the Board #2 – Verifying = $6
$2 Across the Board #22 – Mandarin Hero = $6

Kentucky Derby 2021

Churchill Downs  – May 1^st, 2021
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $3,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface - Dirt

1 – Known Agenda 2 – Like the King 3 – Brooklyn Strong 4 – Keepmeinmind 5 – Sainthood 6 – O Besos 7 – Mandaloun 8 – Medina Spirit 9 –  Hot Rod Charlie 10 – Midnight Bourbon

11 – Dynamic One 12 – Helium 13 – Hidden Stash 14 – Essential Quality 15 – Rock Your World 16 – King Fury  (SCR) 17 – Highly Motivated 18 – Super Stock 19 – Soup and Sandwich 20 – Bourbonic

** I've written a quick snapshot of all of the horses – but #8 is where it gets interesting.

Tough luck for #1 Known Agenda who drew the rail – this horse is a quality horse and definitely has potential to win big races down the road – HOWEVER this post remind me of 2010 with Lookin’ At Lucky, who was an exceptional horse but got swallowed up early and managed a 6^th place finish.  I would need 30-1 odds here before I would even consider it….and the morning line was 6-1. Hard Pass!

#2 Like the King – 3 wins in 6 Starts – I think the competition is too much for him here.        

#3 Brooklyn Strong – 3 wins in 5 Starts – but finished 7^th in his last race featuring Winner #20 Bourbonic and 2^nd Place #11 Dynamic One.

#4 Keepmeinmind – recently finished 5^th in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Favorite #14 Essential Quality, and 2^nd place #17 Highly Motivated.  This horse has finished 4 times in the money out of 6.

I can actually feel this Saint disapproving of that
play on words. 

#5 Sainthood – Recently finished behind #2 Like the King – one could say he doesn't have a prayer. 

#6 O Besos – Fun Trivia – He is the only horse to be sired by a Kentucky Derby Winner in this field (Orb 2013) – but O Besos hasn’t flashed that kind of talent so far – finishing recently behind #9 Hot Rod Charlie, #7 Mandaloun and #10 Midnight Bourbon (Twice). His last victory was in January.

#7 Mandaloun – Beat Midnight Bourbon in the Lecomte, Lost to Midnight Bourbon in the following race Risen Star and then finished 6^th behind Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon and O Besos. Would need a lot of help here.

#8 Medina Spirit – Jockey J.R. Velazquez has won three Kentucky Derby’s, including 2020 onboard Authentic.  This horse has a GREAT Post….however out of 5 Races this horse has only won 2 and has finished 2^nd in the rest. Was expected to take the Santa Anita Derby, (with my Favorite Life is Good off the derby trail) – but #15 Rock # Your World stole the show. At 15/1 odds, with this post and this jockey, you have my attention!

#9 Hot Rod Charlie – Also a great Post – this horse has 2 wins in 7 attempts and looked great in the Louisiana Derby…..HOWEVER, his jockey J. Rosario will be riding #15 Rock Your World.

**However the Jockey they have is Flavien Prat has won the KY Derby before --- winning  the controversial 2019 Kentucky Derby.

Louisiana Derby 2021:

#10 Midnight Bourbon – Jockey "Big Money" Mike Smith has a pair of Kentucky Derby wins – most recently 2018 with Justify. Out of 7 Starts this horse has hit the Winners circle only twice….however this horse has finished Win/Place/Show – 7 out of 7. At 20-1 this horse makes a good horse to round out a Trifecta bet. 

#11 Dynamic One – Placed in the Wood Memorial behind #20 Bourbonic – up until the Wood Memorial this horse had an unimpressive resume. I firmly believe he’s well overmatched here – however  maybe this horse is putting it together at the right time? Would need 50-1 odds before I’d be interested. 

#12 Helium – (Speaking of finding interesting odds) --- DEFINITELY put this horse on your long shot list. This horse is undefeated in three races – including the Tampa Bay Derby….and he’s going well under the radar at 50-1.  In Tampa he defeated #13 Hidden Stash, who recently finished 4^th behind Favorite Essential Quality and Highly Motivated. 

**This Long shot has everything working for him – he’s still fairly unknown and he’s got the inside spot on MOST of the more favored horses. I rarely like Long Shots….but this horse may have just lucked into the Kentucky Derby and could finish dead last…..OR he could be the unknown factor that SHOCKS Churchhill Downs!!!

High on Helium - Tampa Bay Derby:

#13 Hidden Stash – Hasn’t seen the Winners Circle since November 2020. Solid Horse, will run an admirable race, but I see this horse finishing 3^rd at best. 

#14 Essential Quality – Is the “Heavy” Favorite at 2-1. I “should” love this horse – who is undefeated in 5 Starts including the Juvenile Breeders Cup. This horse is the picture of poise and maturity for a 3 year old – this Colt doesn’t “race” he floats to victory. 

*** Maybe I’ve got a California Bias (I really don’t think I do) – maybe I’m just seeing what I “need” to see – maybe I’ve had too much Midnight Bourbon ---  but I think the 2021 Kentucky Derby is the perfect storm for an upset….and I may be alone on this – but I think this year is the year NOT to bet the favorite(s) to win. 

There’s nothing wrong with this horse – but after the Juvenile Breeders Cup (which he won handily) – he’s raced in “gimme” races like the Southwest and Bluegrass…..incidentally I’ve NEVER trusted the results of the Blue Grass Stakes – and it’s never produced a Kentucky Derby Winner!! (Closest was Good Magic in 2018 – finished 2^nd).

I believe this horse will finish in the top 3 – but I’m anticipating UPSET!

2020 Breeders Cup

#15 Rock Your World – Winner of the Santa Anita Derby – this horse shocked So. Cal by hitting the Winner’s Circle on Dirt after having only previously raced on Turf. Rock Your World is undefeated in 3 races. His Jockey is Jockey is Joel Rosario (who won the Kentucky Derby on the aforementioned Orb).

Santa Anita Derby 2021:

#16 – King Fury – is scratched – had two victories at Churchhill Downs  - would have been interesting......in the mean time 

And because of the disappointing scratch here's a very young girl singing We Will Rock You to a Full Soccer Stadium -- in honor of Rock Your World!

**To quote William Shakespeare - though she be but little, she is fierce!

#17 – Highly Motivated – Last victory was in Nov. 2020 – Solid horse, definitely should be a consideration for the top 5 --- would need a lot of help to steal a victory. Recently finished 2^nd in the Bluegrass Stakes behind Essential Quality.

#18 – Super Stock – Won the Arkansas Derby – and has two victories in 8 races.  Will have Jockey Santana aboard again (from Arkansas). Maybe this horse has finally found his stride?? My thought is he’s a grinder, good all-around horse but out of his league here. 

 

#19 – Soup and Sandwich – I love this horse’s name…..he has 2 wins out of 3 Races and finished behind Known Agenda in the Florida Derby.  Unfortunately he hasn’t kept the same Jockey for consecutive races and his last rider Velazquez will be aboard #8 Medina Spirit.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah is VERY disappointed
to have come out of retirement for this 
kind of Soup and Sandwich!

#20 – Bourbonic – If you like LATE closers, this horse might be your guy. Bourbonic is in the perfect spot – he’ll likely hang well back for most of the race and hope to find a hole to burst through in the final furlongs. This horse has 3 victories in 6 attempts….two of those victories came with Carmouche on board.

I’m not a big fan of late charging horses in the Derby – finding a hole through 18 other horses coming out of the final turn is asking for some substantial luck. However at 30-1 this horse might be worth the risk.

***This horse should ABSOLUTELY be on your radar for the Belmont Stakes!

Wood Memorial:

Here’s how I see the race playing out –

#1 Known Agenda gets buried quick and fast -- he's lost this race even before we've hit 3 full seconds.

#8 Medina Spirit and #9 Hot Rod Charlie are going to push to set the tempo --- #15 Rock Your World may also challenge to set the pace early -- he may look to stalk the pace a few lengths behind in the first turn.

The “Big” questions are – Will #12 Helium also step up and challenge? And WHAT exactly will the strategy be for the favorite #14 Essential Quality?? 

Rock Your World, Medina Spirit and Hot Rod Charlie – I believe one of these horses will be the pace setter. ** Midnight Bourbon and Sainthood could be up front as well. 

** If Essential Quality pushes the pace early – this could set up a late closer like #20 Bourbonic (who will likely be at the very back of the pack until the middle of the second turn). 

** If Essential Quality wrangles for the middle of the pack he could get jostled in the traffic – setting up the early leads. 

** If Rock Your World  had to endure a wide trip he could fade – and if Essential Quality is stuck in traffic – that opens things up for Medina Spirit / Hot Rod Charlie / (Maybe) Helium and Bourbonic. 

Sometime you’re betting the best HORSE in the Race – this year, you may be betting the “size” and “strategy” of the Kentucky Derby. 

Closing Speed likes:  Medina Spirit, Rock Your World, Midnight Bourbon (Essential Quality 4th)

If I’m betting $36 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box: 8,9,14,20 = $24

$1 Exacta: 14, 15 with 8,9,12, 20 = $12

Longshots:

$5 Win/Place – #8 Medina Spirit = $10

$2 Across the Board - #12 Helium = $6

 $2 Across the Board - # 20 Bourbonic = $6

$2  Across the Board - #10 Midnight Bourbon = $6

Orb - 2013 Twin Spires!

Kentucky Derby 2019

Churchill Downs  – May 4^th, 2019

Race 12 - 6:50 PM (EST)

Kentucky Derby

Purse - $3,000,000

Distance - One And One Quarter Miles

Surface - Dirt

1 – War of Will 2 – Tax 3 – By My Standards 4 – Gray Magician 5 – Improbable 6 – Vekoma 7 – Maximum Security 8 – Tacitus 9 –  Plus Que Parfait 10 – Cutting Humor

11 – Haikal (SCR) 12 – Omaha Beach (SCR) 13 – Code of Honor 14 –Win Win Win 15 – Master Fencer 16 – Game Winner 17 – Roadster 18 – Long Range Toddy 19 – Spinoff 20 – Country House 21 – (AE)  Bodexpress

 There have been so many years in the past where I would begin my Kentucky Derby analysis by writing that “If you’re looking for one horse to win the Triple Crown it will be…….”

And this year I certainly would have stated that “That Horse” would be #12 Omaha Beach – Omaha Beach has a beautiful stride --- smooth like silk – and he runs with a mature presence and a lot of patience……on top of that – Omaha Beach closes well, he has raced and beaten substantial talent……AND.....He also won’t be joining us for the Kentucky Derby due to a Throat issue…..so there goes a full page I had written about his prospects.

 So with Omaha Beach – it leaves us with a fairly open 145th Kentucky Derby.

I’ll start by writing that **If the track is muddy (which it likely will be) – the race could open up even more and it wouldn’t surprise me if a long shot snuck into the top three……it would still surprise me if a horse over 20-1 won it……with the exception of one horse….which I’ll get too.

Let’s start with the horse that I think “should” be the favorite:

#5 – Improbable – This horse recently finished 2^nd on a muddy track going hoof to hoof with Omaha Beach. This horse may have only lost his last race because he took an outside position on Omaha Beach going into and coming out of the Second Turn – he lost ground, and Omaha Beach was way too good to lose ground too.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
thinks it's fair to be fussy
when you're in a gate, in the mud
and have a guy sitting on you.

With a Better Trip – No Omaha Beach in sight – and experience on a muddy track – what’s not to like??

**Well here’s the problem – Improbable also finished 2^nd in the Rebel Stakes against #18 Long Range Toddy (30-1) – Improbable was VERY fussy as they loaded him into the gate in his last race….and came close to getting scratched.

I think he’s the best horse left in this group (current odds makers disagree), but I don’t love that he hasn’t won a race since December.

Arkansas Derby:

#6 Vekoma – currently sits at 15-1 odds….this is the relative long shot that worries me. If Vekoma shoots up above 20-1….I’m definitely in for a few bucks….the reason I like this horse is that – despite his very odd stride (who remembers Phoebe running in the park in the show “Friends”) – 

Vekoma won the Bluegrass Stakes convincingly.

Vekoma flashed enough early speed that he will be able to stay ahead of the Kentucky Derby Wall of horses – he has a solid post position and if Improbable decides to take an early lead, could stalk the leader into the final turn.

I LOVE that this horse could hit the first turn only going about two or three wide and have clear sailing for most of the race….very enticing.

The thing I don’t love about Vekoma (outside of that ugly stride….make that ugly and FAST stride) is that he won the Bluegrass Stakes.

For years I’ve watched horses do very well in this race and then do nothing for the big dance – almost like it’s built purposefully to mess with you.

Bluegrass Stakes: 

 #7 Maximum Security – (8/1) in my opinion, this horse is sliding under the radar right now – undefeated in all of his starts – he executed a fantastic game plan for the Florida Derby and is in the exact same post position for the KY Derby.

The only downside I see is that he enjoyed a “casual” pace in the Florida Derby – and that race may have lined up very well for him…….I feel this could be the horse more people should be talking about.

 #8 Tacitus – Wood Memorial Winner – (8/1)  -- Tacitus will likely sit back in the middle of the pack, but also try to keep in front of what will be a wall of horses. Tacitus will likely hope that his “inside” competition will wear each other out early and he can storm by in the final furlongs.

I like this horse….I usually lean towards horses who can create early leads in the KY Derby…especially in the slop – he could be the one to steal it in the final furlongs going along the rail or breaking out wide.

 #16 Game Winner and #17 Roadster – Game Winner is the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Winner, who just finished 2^nd behind Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby.

In the Kentucky Derby – it often helps to start the race this far outside – Quality horses can avoid getting trapped early and pick the perfect spot to move inside going into the first turn.

Both of these horses may look to run along with Tacitus – towards the front middle of the pack.

**Perhaps it’s because I was “So” sold on Omaha Beach – that I’m overlooking these two horses (who basically are the two favorites) – but I just don’t see it with these two.

Game Winner has two recent losses (against Roadster and Omaha Beach) – and Roadster is a tad untested for me.

And (for good or bad) I lean towards early speed in this race – and Roadster will be looking to come in late.

Santa Anita Derby:

Here’s how I see the race unfolding -- #2 Tax will look to claim the early lead…..he very well may not make it and get swallowed up and never be heard from again…..but I think he’ll make it.

Tax will look to set up the pace – Improbable, Vekoma and Maximum Security will be nearby.

One of these horses may pull back a little, looking to go inside before the second turn – depends on how muddy it is.

Further back will likely be Tacitus, Game Winner and Roadster --- there is a chance Game Winner and Roadster “won’t” find a comfortable spot going into the first turn and could lose a LOT of ground and energy going FAR wide – it’s doubtful but an early surprise could essentially take these two horses out of the mix.

Also – more than likely some Long Shot (or Long Shots) will make an early suicide run – meaning they won’t have the endurance late to make up for their early speed…….usually that long shot looks like they’re running in tar around the middle of the second turn.

Coming out of the final turn – I expect Tax (and the unnamed Long Shot) will begin giving up ground.

Improbable will take command – Vekoma…….is my wild card – he could be neck and neck with the leader….he may be in 10^th place by now……Maximum Security will challenge as well.

**IF these three are worn out early – Tacitus will likely be in the best spot to take it all – BUT I think Maximum Security rides by Improbable – Tacitus, Roadster and Game Winner will make a bid but the race works out too well for Maximum Security.

Closing Speed likes:  Maximum Security, Improbable, Game Winner

If I’m betting $36 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box: 5,6,7,16 = $24

$1 Exacta: 5, 7 with 5,7,6,8,16,17,18 = $12

Longshot:

$5 Win/Place – #18 Long Range Toddy (30/1) 

(ONLY if it’s dry – solid horse, might hate the slop).

$5 Win/Place – #6 Vekoma (15/1)

$5 Win/Place - #13 Code of Honor (12/1)

Kentucky Derby 2018

Churchill Downs  – May 5^th, 2018

Race 12 - 6:50 PM (EST)

Kentucky Derby

Purse - $2,000,000

Distance - One And One Quarter Miles

Surface - Dirt

1 – Firenze Fire 2 – Free Drop Billy 3 – Promises Fulfilled 4 – Flameaway 5 – Audible 6 – Good Magic 7 – Justify 8 – Lone Sailor 9 –  Hofburg 10 – My Boy Jack

11 – Bolt D’oro 12 – Enticed 13 – Bravazo 14 –Mendelssohn 15 – Instilled Report 16 - Magnum Moon 17 – Solomini 18 – Vino Rosso 19 – Nobel Indy 20 – Combatant 21 – (AE)  Blended Citizen

 

The 144^th Kentucky Derby could be the most talented field of three year old horses I’ve seen…..well, ever.

Justify enters this race as the morning line favorite --- however it would not surprise me if UAE Derby winner #14 Mendelssohn becomes the favorite at the start of the race – take a look at his last start:

For those of you who don’t follow horse racing much – the UAE Derby is equal in purse money to the Kentucky Derby (2 Mill), so it’s not like this horse just clobbered a bunch of nobodies.

However…..there are a couple of very interesting strikes against this horse --- the UAE Derby is held in the Middle East….and this horse just got to Kentucky this past Thursday……I can’t imagine this horse isn’t due for some major jet lag!!

I have boots on the ground that tell me Mendelssohn looks ready --- however a UAE Derby winner has never won a Kentucky Derby (granted the UAE Derby is only 18 years old). Most UAE Derby winners don’t even come close…..still you can’t help but be intimidated with that Romp – that being said, Mendelssohn has won 4 out of 7 races….which is great, except two of his rivals this Saturday are undefeated.

The Next Prep race I’d like to look at is the Wood Memorial – where #18 Vino Rosso found the winner’s circle. Other contenders in this race are: #12 Enticed and #1 Firenze Fire.

Unfortunately for Firenze Fire he starts off the Kentucky Derby against the rail, and far better horses than he have been avalanched upon before the first turn and not been able to get out from under the wall of horses. I expect the same here.

Enticed – fades hard before they reach the final turn in this race….and the KY Derby is a longer race, so he’s not likely to pull off a victory (however Enticed could play a key factor in this race).

Finally Vino Rosso finishes strong….that being said I think Vino Rosso will need a lot of help to win against these other horses  - his post position isn’t much help.

Next let’s take a look at the Louisiana Derby which featured #8 Lone Sailor, #13 Bravaso,  #10 My Boy Jack and #19 Noble Indy.

Lone Sailor and Noble Indy put up a great fight for the finish line…..and with a slightly different trip I think they could have swapped finishes….My Boy Jack closes after going (by my eye) 11 wide and still finds a way to challenge…..meanwhile Bravaso finishes 8^th.

In my opinion these results are very similar to the Wood Memorial – some very solid horses here, but I don’t know if they have the resources to contend with the major players in this race.

***My Boy Jack did follow up after this race with a victory in the Lexington Stakes – and a lot of people seem to be stoked about this horse, I’m assuming because he’s a late closer. Truth be told I watched the Lexington Stakes and a horse by the name of Pony Up can “seriously” close….Pony Up didn’t qualify for the KY Derby, but I’ll be watching out for that horse.

Let’s move on to the Blue Grass Stakes – where 2017 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Champion #6 Good Magic picked up a victory against fellow contenders #2 Free Drop Billy and #4 Flameaway.

First of all, these horses all have very good post positions – however The Blue Grass Stakes year in and year out has been kind of a weird race – good horses often run poorly there – average horses will sometimes look unstoppable…..I mean it’s like a box of chocolates up in here – you never know what you’re going to get.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
is unhappy about coming out
of retirement for a
Forrest Gump Call back.

Coming into 2018 Good Magic looked like the “one” to beat….and then he finished 3^rd in the Fountain of Youth, and the Blue Grass Stakes win is solid but leaves me unconvinced.

The one thing I noticed most about this race is how well Good Magic stayed on the rail coming out of the final turn….as you watch these next few races you’ll see dominant horses leave themselves vulnerable on the inside. Good Magic may end up being the kind of disciplined horse who can steal a victory here.

Moving to the Florida Derby – Contenders #3 Promised Fulfilled, #5 Audible, #9 Hofburg:

The Florida Derby could provide us with some clues about how the Kentucky Derby will play out – you’ll notice Promised Fulfilled goes on a suicide run at 21.95 Quarter Mile before falling into a deep fade……I think they’ll run a similar style here……however if they have some patience...maybe a different outcome??

Audible and Hofburg both look like very solid contenders – I think both would need some help to win the Kentucky Derby, but I think either of these horses could crack the top 3.

Moving West to Arkansas  - Contenders #16 Magnum Moon, #17 Solomini, #20 Combatant.

First of all – kudos to the announcer for having Bad Moon on the Rise in his back pocket for the end of the race.

Next – Unlike the Blue Grass Stakes ALL of these horses have less than stellar starting positions…..sheesh Kentucky look after your own much?!?!

I believe Magnum Moon is a real contender in this race – and with Morning odds at 6/1 that’s not a bad price…..Magnum Moon enters this race undefeated  -- however he has two lightning fast horses on his inside and I don’t know that Magnum Moon will be able to put himself in a position to win – he’ll need help.

The two lightning fast horses I’m referring too are Santa Anita Derby Winner  #7 Justify and 2^nd place finisher #11 Bolt D’Oro. See for yourself.

From what I understand – Bolt D’Oro (who finished 2^nd in this race) was fast enough to defeat all of the horses who ran in the American Races…..the only horse that could have beat Bolt D’Oro did – and that was Justify.

Undefeated in 3 lifetime races, Justify enters this race as the Morning Line favorite.  

The “big” Strike against this horse is that he hasn’t raced a lot – most of these horses have almost twice as many outings as Justify (Mendelssohn is 4 out of 7 lifetime)……my concern is this horse may not have the kind of discipline to win against this talented of a field – then again he made mistakes in the Santa Anita and still beat, perhaps, the next best horse in America – that’s the other side of the coin, this horse has scary, scary talent.

In my opinion if Justify can run his race --- he’s rightfully the favorite and most likely will win the KY Derby.

***Here’s how I see the race unfolding – NBC will start by showing you how much sound Mendelssohn makes…he’s a loud horse.

As the race begins -- If #3 Promises Fulfilled can get out of the gate cleanly I think  he’s got a shot at the very early lead, along with #4 Flameaway – the real question is “How fast will they hit the quarter mile”?

**If these opening speedsters hit it in 21 or even 22 – I think they’ll fade hard before the end of the second turn – if however (one of them) can take the lead at around 23 seconds….they may be able to avoid traffic and (at 30-1) find a way to finish in the top 4.

I’m being told Enticed will NOT look to be at the top of the pack at the beginning of the race, but instead run a more conservative race until the final turn…..I don’t believe it – He’ll either be up early, or my guess is not at all – I don’t think he has the endurance to catch some of these horses once they have the lead – if Entice runs with Flameaway  and/or Promises Fulfilled…..could be dangerous for Justify – seeing two (or three) horse battle for a fast early lead….could tempt Justify to run out of his comfort zone and THAT’S exactly how I think Justify could lose this race….that’s where his inexperience could cost him.

**If Audible or Good Magic can keep Justify on their right shoulder going into the first turn that could cause Justify to expend enough early energy to have him vulnerable by the end of the race – a lot of this race could depend on if these two horses get a better opening break than Justify.

That being said – I don’t think Audible or Good Magic are going to be comfortable with the early speed at the top of the pack – I think Justify will look to find a way to get past them early.

I really like Audibles position - and I like the patience he showed in the Florida Derby -- I personally am putting Audible higher than Mendelssohn. 

Bolt D’oro and Mendelssohn will be on the outside looking in – the good news is they’ll be able to pick their spots once the pack starts to separate going into the first turn…..the bad news is – if Justify can break free of Audible and Good Magic and put himself along the rail just behind some opening leaders  -- they may be in a position where they’ve lost too much ground early – to do any real damage late.

Magnum Moon, Noble Indy and Vino Rosso – will likely stick to the middle of the pack and hope to steal this race late – out of these three I like Magnum Moon  – but luck will be a big factor --- as these horses will need a parting of the Red Sea moment to have an opening coming out of the final turn….but with the right position and a lot of luck – one of these horses could steal it.

In closing – Mendelssohn looks amazing, and I’m told he’s ready…..and when I hear people around the track buzzing, I’ve learned to listen – but I just don’t like the late arrival from a different time zone – I don’t believe this horse will be ready for this kind of race. I’m kicking him down a few spots.

**I would like to add if Mendelssohn wins the KY Derby --- we could be witnessing something very special…..like greatest 3 year old of all time special.

I am counting on Justify to run his race and not lose his composure – I think he takes the lead going into the final turn and doesn’t look back.

I like Audible to hang close with the leaders and slide into 2nd  followed by Bolt D’oro and Magnum Moon.

Closing Speed likes:  Justify, Audible and Magnum Moon.

If I’m betting $34 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box: 5,7,11,16 = $24

$1 Exacta: 7, 11 with 6,9,14,18,19 = $10

Some Longshots -- (If there is rain – I would consider betting $27 on Longshots – as follows)

$2 Win - – Good Magic (Especially if it’s raining)

$5 Win – Audible (If raining)

$5 Win - Magnum Moon (if raining)

$5 Win - Nobel Indy (if odds are higher than 20/1)

$10 Win -  Promises Fulfilled (if odds are higher than 20/1)

Kentucky Derby 2016

Churchhill Downs – May 7, 2016

Race 12 - 6:34 PM

Kentucky Derby (Grade I)

Purse - $2,000,000

Distance - One And One Quarter Miles

Surface - Dirt

1 –  Trojan Nation 2 – Suddenbreakingnews 3 – Creator                          4 – Mo Tom                                                        5 – Gun Runner 6 - My Man Sam 7 – Oscar Nominated 8 – Lani 9 –  Destin 10 – Whitmore

11 – Exaggerator 12 – Tom’s Ready 13 – Nyquist 14 – Mohaymen 15 – Outwork 16 – Shagaf 17 – Mor Spirit 18 – Majesto 19 – Brody’s Cause 20 – Danzig Candy

                                                               

From what I’m seeing the 2016 Kentucky Derby is split into two groups – the first group believes that #13 Nyquist is a far superior horse to the rest of the field and this is “his” race to lose.

Why do haters gotta hate??

The second group might fall in the “haters gotta hate” group – that’s just looking for any way the heavy favorite could fail or because they’re hoping to make some money on a longshot.

Full disclosure (as a fan) I’m in the first group – Nyquist has been nothing short of amazing in his undefeated 7 race career. He’s won on four different tracks, in three different states.  He fearlessly was transferred to Florida to take on (perhaps) the second best horse in the nation #14 Mohaymen – on Mohaymen’s “home court” – defeating all in the Florida Derby.

Florida Derby:

(also featuring #14Mohaymen and  #18 Majesto)

Nyquist has all of the trademarks that make up a “GREAT” Kentucky Derby favorite – he possesses enough early speed that he can separate from a field of 12 to 19 horses and set his own early pace.

My “fear” for Nyquist is that while he has shown racing maturity he “could” fall for an early speed trap and burn himself out too early……but again, he’s shown maturity so far.

Nyquist also appears comfortable with longer distances and able to sustain enough endurance so that he doesn’t fade in the final furlongs.

In the Florida Derby you’ll notice he does go VERY wide in the final turn and he does waver in the final furlongs – which does indicate some fatigue – but, in my opinion, the undefeated Juvenile Champion looks like a fighter and I think once he hits the final stretch and builds two or three lengths on the other horses….it’s OVER.

However, for those looking for a surprise victory, there are a few interesting horses.

#3 Creator (currently going off at 10/1) is a story of Good News / Bad News – the Bad News is that this horse has only won 2 races out of 8 – however he won his last race The Arkansas Derby and Creator seems poised to be a bigger threat at longer distances – so additional good news is that this horse could be just getting into races he’s comfortable with.

As you watch the Arkansas Derby you’ll see that the Big Grey Colt likes to hang WAAAAAYYY back until he makes his final push…..it’s also interesting to see that both Creator and Suddenbreakingnews seem to be finding their stride late in the race......

Arkansas Derby:

(also featuring #2 Suddenbreakingnews & #10 Whitmore)

#5 Gun Runner – Winner of both the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star Stakes) has won 4 out of 5 career races.

*If Gun Runner can break from the gate well and take the rail – he could challenge Nyquist early – I think Gun Runner has a shot to land in the top three with some luck.

There’s also a chance that he could get swallowed in a swarm of horses and never have a chance to break out.

Louisiana Derby

(also featuring #4 Mo Tom & #12 Tom’s Ready)

#11 Exaggerator – was the winner of the Santa Anita Derby, and has 4 career victories in 9 attempts (one of his losses was against Nyquist in February). Exaggerator was sired by one of my favorites (Curlin) and he possesses a great late kick --- and I love that he’s comfortable in traffic – I don’t love him at 8/1 – I’d be more interested at 12/1 or higher.

Santa Anita Derby

(also featuring #17 Mor Spirit and #20 Danzig Candy)

 #15 Outwork has won 3 of his 4 career races – including the Wood Memorial --- his one loss was against #9 Destin in the Tampa Bay Derby.

I like Outwork but I think he received a tough luck post position – I believe he needed to be on the inside of Nyquist to have a solid shot and I don’t think this horse is going to be able to overtake Nyquist early or have a better late kick than some of the other horses – tough draw.

#9 Destin is a bit of a mystery – he hasn’t raced in 56 days – he’s won his last two stakes races – and I love his starting spot……but I HATE the long layoff and the fact that he hasn’t really competed against top talent. But a VERY intriguing longshot.

Wood Memorial

(also featuring #1 Trojan Nation and #16 Shagaf)

To round out the field –

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
wonders why they didn't name
the horse Oscar Winner?
I mean....they had a choice.

#7 Oscar Nominated – has won his last two races (including the Spiral Stakes) and has won a total of 3 out of 7 career attempts.  I like his starting spot…..but he strikes me as a horse that’s just happy to be there – I believe he’ll be overwhelmed by the level of talent in this one.

#8 Lani – I’m always VERY interested when the UAE Derby winner comes out of the Middle East to race in the Kentucky Derby – This horse has won in Japan and the Dubai – it appears to me that this horse likes to run in the middle of the pack – and closes out very smoothly.  That being said – while this horse has a premium post position - he hasn’t raced in 42 days and he’s dealing with a very difficult traveling transition.  Full disclosure – I always think the UAE Derby winner will surprise….and the only one that’s surprised is me when they finish so poorly.

#19 Brody’s Cause – he’s another quality horse that will strike very late in a race. He has won 3 out of 6 career races and if he can find a lane coming out of the final turn, he could certainly be an upset contender --- but only if Nyquist is fatigued.

#6 My Man Sam – finished 2^nd to Brody’s Cause in the recent Blue Grass Stakes – but My Man Sam was driving in the final furlongs.  He’s got only 1 victory in 4 attempts….but he looks like he likes the distance…..I don’t love him at 20/1…..but if he hits 30/1 or higher…..he’s interesting.

Here’s how I see the race breaking down –

#1 Trojan Nation likely gets swallowed up in less than one full second from a collapsing dune of horses and is likely never heard from again – meanwhile on the opposite side #20 Danzig Candy will have to make a very difficult decision – either Danzig Candy will burst out and hit the pace at a suicide level in hopes of grabbing a top spot and somehow sustaining it……or come out of the gate weakly and look to find a spot in the top half of the pack – either way I think Danzig Candy will have a very difficult time making this post work for him.

I believe Brody’s Cause, Suddenbreakingnews, Exaggerator and Creator will ALL fall back to the back of the pack – Creator will likely be the furthest back….and Exaggerator may work his way closer to middle of the pack.

Gun Runner could get swallowed up early – but I think he could make the first turn and be the early leader – I suspect he’ll be joined by Nyquist, Mohaymen and Outwork. Destin could also be there.

If Nyquist is pushing an early quarter at 21 or 22 seconds he could be in trouble – however if Nyquist has a clear path in front of him and he’s running a 23.5 second quarter --- I think EVERYBODY else is in trouble.

Nyquist may have to fight off getting boxed in by the other horses – in what I consider poor sportsmanship – sometimes the other jockeys will try to box the favorite in…..doesn’t translate into their horses winning as much as it does the favorite losing.

Coming into the final turn I believe Outwork and Mohaymen will likely begin to fade…..they may have run 5 or 6 wide the entire race and it will have been too much to maintain. 

We’ll see if Gun Runner is able to challenge.

Midway in the final turn I suspect we’ll begin hearing that Brody’s Cause, My Man Sam, Suddenbreakingnews, Exaggerator  and Creator are making their late pushes….IF one of these horses can find an open lane close to the rail or the inside track of Nyquist – I think any of these horses have a shot at an upset over Nyquist.

However if a lane through that wall of horses doesn’t open up early enough or if the late closing horses are forced AROUND the wall of horses (i.e. to the far outside)  – and Nyquist has built up a lead and still has enough strength to finish – I suspect Nyquist will be on his way to the Winner’s Circle.

Closing Speed likes: Nyquist / Exaggerator / Brody's Cause

If I’m betting $38 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box: 11,13, 19 = $6

$1 Exacta: 5,7,8,9 w 13 = $4

$1 Exacta: 13 w 5,7,8,9 = $4

(Or just $2 -  5,7,8,9 to win = $8)

$1 Exacta Box: 2,,3,11,13 = $24