American Pharoah - Finally the One

Feb. 2 is Triple Crown and Grand Slam Champion American Pharoah’s birthday – and in honor of his birthday I thought that I would write (how I view) his story –

I think it’s best to start at the end of the 2014 Belmont Stakes – California Chrome had recently won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness – but (perhaps due to injury) California Chrome finished 4^th in the Belmont – and on National Television Owner Steve Coburn proclaimed:

“I’m 61 years old, and I’ll never see in my lifetime, I’ll never see another Triple Crown winner ..because the way they do this”. *See Video ------------------------ >

After over 35 years without a Triple Crown winner – those who still paid any attention to the Sport of Kings, certainly understood Mr. Coburn’s sentiments.

What was it going to take to build another Triple Crown winner?

What if I told you that American Pharoah’s story begins on February 9^th 1913 --- you read that correctly 1913…as in the year before World War 1 began in Europe.

Feb. 9 1913 – Hall of Fame Trainer John Andrew Nerud is born on a ranch in Nebraska.

The Great Race of 38!

1919 - Sir Barton wins the Triple Crown

1930 – Gallant Fox wins the Triple Crown

1935 – Mr. Nerud begins his career training Horses.

1935 – Omaha wins the Triple Crown

1937 – War Admiral wins the Triple Crown

1938 – Seabiscuit defeats War Admiral in the Pimlico Special

1941 – Whirlaway wins the Triple Crown

1943 – Count Fleet wins the Triple Crown

1948 – Citation wins the Triple Crown

1949 – Having returned from serving in the Navy in World War II – Mr. Nerud returns to training horses and has three significant victories (Hialeah Inaugural Handicap, Seminole Handicap and the New Rochelle Handicap)

Gallant Man & John Nerud

1953 – Trainer Bob Baffert is Born.

1957 – Mr. Nerud’s horse Gallant Man is beaten by a nose in the Kentucky Derby by Iron Leige – in what is a legendary misjudgment by Hall of Fame Jockey Willie Shoemaker:

Some Background - (link below)

The Gallant Mistake!

Nerud’s response: 

“You can’t turn the clock back; Shoemaker just made a mistake and pulled him up,” Nerud said. “But what are you going to do? If you’re a gentleman, you say nothing; you eat it and go home.”

The 1957 Kentucky Derby can be seen here brought to you by Universal International News....(I love these old newscasts)

Gallant Man skips the Preakness and returns to win the 1957 Belmont Stakes.

1968 – Dr Fager – Trained by Mr. Nerud and named after the neurosurgeon who saved Nerud’s life after a fall from his horse, is perhaps Mr. Nerud’s greatest horse – this quote sums it up perfectly:

In 1968, Dr. Fager was acclaimed champion older horse, champion sprinter, champion grass horse, and Horse of the Year. In short, he was considered the best at literally everything an American racehorse is asked to do, except jump a fence. Then again, he never tried.

The full article: Dr. Fager - the Stuff of Legend

1972 – Jockey Victor Espinoza is born

1973 – Secretariat wins the Triple Crown (ending a 25 year drought in dramatic fashion)

1977 – Fappiano is born (Dr. Fager is his Grand Sire on the Mare’s side) – He is breed and trained by Mr. Nerud – and  while Fappiano’s racing career is somewhat modest (a Metropolitan Handicap Victory) – his most important contribution will be in producing Champions.....that eventually lead us to American Pharoah.

1977 – Seattle Slew wins the Triple Crown

1978 – Affirmed wins the Triple Crown

1979 – Spectacular Bid wins KY Derby and Preakness – (finishes 3^rd in the Belmont).

1979 – John Nerud retires from Training Horses – but still continues as a Manager and Breeder. He is instrumental as a Founding Father of The Breeder’s Cup.

1981 – Pleasant Colony – Wins KY Derby and Preakness – (finishes 3^rd in the Belmont)

1984 – Swale (sired by Seattle Slew) Wins KY Derby and Belmont (loses Preakness).

1984 – The first year of The Breeder’s Cup kicks off at Hollywood Park in California.

1987 – Alysheba wins KY Derby and Preakness – (finished 4^th in the Belmont)

1989 – Sunday Silence – wins KY Derby and Preakness – (finished 2^nd in the Belmont).

Sunday Silence goes on to win the Breeders Cup.

1990 – Unbridled – Sired by Fappiano wins the KY Derby and the Breeders Cup Classic.

1992 – Trainer Bob Baffert gets first major win with Thirty Slews in the Breeders Cup Sprint.

1994 – Thunder Glutch wins the KY Derby, finishes 3^rd in the Preakness and then wins the Belmont Stakes.

1997 – Silver Charm – trained by Bob Baffert – wins the KY Derby and Preakness – (finishes 2^nd in the Belmont).

1998 – Real Quiet – Grandsired by Fappiano, Trained by Bob Baffert – wins the KY Derby and Preakness (finishes 2^nd to Victory Gallop who was also Grand Sired by Fappiano).

1999 – Charismatic – wins KY Derby and Preakness – (finishes 3^rd in the Belmont).

2000 -- Thoroughbred Empire Maker is born – sired by Unbridled (1990) – Grandsired by Fappiano.

2001 – Victor Espinoza rides in his first Kentucky Derby and finishes 3^rd on Congaree.

2002 – War Emblem – Trained by Bob Baffert and with Jockey Victor Espinoza aboard – wins the KY Derby and Preakness – (finishing 8^th in the Belmont Stakes – after a nearly tragic beginning of the race with War Emblem falling to his knees coming out of the gate).

2003 – Funny Cide – wins KY Derby and Preakness – loses to Empire Maker in the Belmont Stakes.

**After victories in the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial (where he defeated Funny Cide) Empire Maker was considered the favorite that year in the Kentucky Derby – but instead he finished 2^nd. Nevertheless Empire Maker may end up living up to his name – as he is the Grand Sire to American Pharoah.

The 2003 Belmont Stakes I believe is worth watching because Empire Maker shows his ability to tackle the Distance and run well in Mud – something American Pharoah will also be able to master:

  

2004 – Smarty Jones wins the KY Derby and Preakness – and after having gone undefeated in all of his 8 lifetime races – he fades in the Belmont and finishes 2nd.

Heart break in NY - as he is a New York Bred horse and the Belmont is in NY!

2006 – After so many close calls for the Triple Crown I begin writing a blog on Horse Racing, determined to follow the sport into its greatest accomplishment…..the word on the track was that a horse named Barbaro looks to finally break the Triple Crown drought – Despite being relatively new to the sport, I was devastated watching Barbaro suffer an injury in the Preakness, especially after such a glorious victory in the Kentucky Derby. My Father offered some advice that year – Horse Racing can break your heart if you let it.

Barbaro's Jockey Edgar Prado moments after the injury in the Preakness.
Barbaro's saddle and blanket at his feet.

2006 – Pioneer of the Nile is born - sired by Empire Maker (Unbridled / Fappiano)

2008 – Big Brown – seemed unstoppable – he won the KY Derby from the 20^th position, and won the Preakness with relative ease. The competition he faced in the Belmont was kind of a joke (he was the 3-10 favorite)…..but Jockey Kent Desormeaux sensed a mechanical difficulty and pulled Big Brown up for fear of injury. Big Brown didn’t even finish the race. 

**I thought Big Brown was a lock that year!

Baby Pharoah!

2012 – American Pharoah is born – Sired by Pioneer of the Nile (Empire Maker / Unbridled / Fappiano).

2012 – I’ll Have Another – wins the KY Derby and the Preakess – but an injury prevents him from running in the Belmont Stakes. He became only the third horse, after Burgoo King in 1932 and Bold Venture in 1936, to be scratched from the Belmont Stakes after having won the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

2014 – California Chrome – with Jockey Victor Espinosa aboard -- wins the KY Derby and Preakness – finishes 4^th in the Belmont Stakes after sustaining an injury during the Belmont -- Owner Steve Coburn declares he'll never see a Triple Crown winner in his lifetime.

2015 – American Pharoah begins his march into Horse Racing history,

There's a few quirky tidbits in American Pharoah's background. 

The word Pharoah is misspelled in his name -- and there is some debate about whose fault that is? Interestingly enough the Triple Crown Blanket awarded to American Pharoah after his Belmont victory inadvertently used the "correct" spelling of Pharaoh -- so basically his misspelling was misspelled. 

As you will see in these Videos American Pharoah has a shorter tail than most of the other horses -- the "theory" is that a Stablemate of his Mr. Z chewed it off.....you can't make this stuff up.

The first race I'd like to look at is the Rebel Stakes -- at this point American Pharoah had lost his first race, and won the following two - this will be his second race at 1 1/16 miles.

You'll notice Tiz Wonderful hops in the air at the beginning of the race, you'll also notice the muddy track -- neither of these distractions phase American Pharoah -- he's able to remain focused and runs in the mud without any issues -- his ability in Mud will definitely become a factor down the road -- but this horse shows such incredible focus for a young three year old horse. 

In the Arkansas Derby what impresses me most is how poised American Pharoah remains even though a Long Shot tries to lure him into an early speed trap. A lot of quality horses (and especially young horses) have difficulty not being the front runner -- and even the best of horses will often chase down the early speedsters and fade in the final furlongs -- he shows remarkable poise in his early career.  

This is the first time American Pharoah has run in a 1 1/8th mile race, and he handles it beautifully -- American Pharoah bides his time -- and then proceeds to crush the competition -- this was a masterful performance. 

The following race was the Kentucky Derby -- and the poise he had shown in the Arkansas Derby would be tested again. Coming out of the 18th Post Position -- American Pharoah has an advantage in that he'll be able to avoid getting boxed in early -- however the disadvantage is that American Pharoah will be giving ground to the inside horses (and literally running a longer race than they are -- and as they come out of the final turn, I see him going nearly 8 Wide from the Rail -- that's a LOT of space) -- this is a test of his endurance and poise -- and in the end he's (somehow) just got more left in the tank than any other horse.

In Mid May Baltimore was still reeling from the Riots of late April -- There was a chance the Preakness would be cancelled, and while the events in Baltimore were far more important than a Horse Race -- it seemed like destiny might throw another wrench into a possible Triple Crown -- the race day was allowed but as the Preakness approached, dark, violent clouds encroached on Pimlico. 

It was a driving rain and it was just in time for the for the Preakness! Historically I've seen Owners with amazing horses purposefully "not" run their horses to their full potential for fear of injury. It was very possible the economics of Horse Racing could also end American Pharoah's bid for the Triple Crown -- would they actually let him run??

I've never seen a Preakness this sloppy before....and as they approached the gate -- I thought bad luck would once again strip us from a Triple Crown winner -- the weather, the atmosphere, even the horse (Mr. Z) who ate his tail was in this one -- it seemed all so bleak. 

But American Pharoah doesn't even skip a beat -- he BLAZES in the mud -- giving us a 22 second opening! Despite the pouring rain....despite the blazing 22 second 1/4 of a mile, in the MUD -- nobody is even close to him at the finish line -- in my opinion this is the horse Empire Maker could have been.

Thirty Seven Years had gone by since Affirmed had won the last Triple Crown -- 15 times (and twice in the past two years) Horses had won Two of the Races in the Triple Crown without being able to close the deal.

This would be the third time Jockey Victor Espinosa would have at winning a Triple Crown -- having been in the same position just the year before with California Chrome.

This would be Trainer Bob Bafferts fourth attempt at winning a Triple Crown -- Victor Espinosa had been his Jockey in 2002 on War Emblem.

It's no secret that the Belmont Stakes is about Endurance -- especially for any Triple Crown contender, because they are usually the only horse who has raced in ALL Three of the Triple Crown races -- and this is exactly why Owner Steve Coburn had gone on a rant the year before.

As you'll see --- American Pharoah takes an early lead and as he hits the final stretch I think everyone held their breath waiting for a long shot to dash any Triple Crown hopes once again. 

But just when it seemed American Pharoah might be fading (at the 2:20 mark).....he finds another gear -- simply remarkable.

I still get chills as I hear "American Pharoah is FINALLY the One!"

American Pharoah continued racing in 2015 -- winning his next race the Haskell Invitational before losing (finishing 2nd) in the Travers Stakes -- personally I think he was exhausted from the travel and too much racing in the Travers....but he still managed to finish 2nd.

He finished his career with a victory in the Breeders Cup Classic -- the first horse to ever win the Triple Crown and a Breeders Cup Race.

American Pharoah retired after the Breeders Cup -- and in three year or so we'll start to see another generation from the Fappiano / Unbridled / Empire Maker / Pioneer of the Nile bloodline.

California Chrome Owner, Steve Coburn, was alive and well to witness American Pharoah accomplish what Mr. Coburn stated he would never see in his lifetime only the year before. California Chrome continued to race in his 4th year, and from what I'm reading will continue running in 2016.

John Nerud (at 102 years old) also lived long enough to watch American Pharoah win a Triple Crown -- having been partially responsible for the success nearly 40 years before in breeding Fappiano.

Mr. Nerud had even contacted Trainer Bob Baffert before the race to wish him luck.

Mr. Nerud passed away, nearly a month after the Belmont Stakes, on August 15, 2015 --- perhaps one of the last people to have direct contacts with all of the Triple Crown winners since 1919.

Below is a great article on Mr. Nerud's life:

John Nerud - Hall of Fame Trainer

Where's the competition?

American Pharoah with Trainer Bob Baffert

Belmont Stakes - Triple Crown Edition

Belmont Park – June 6, 2015

Race 11 - 6:50 PM

Belmont Stakes (Grade I)

Purse - $1,500,000

Distance - One And One Half Miles

Surface – Dirt

1 – Mubtaahij

2 – Tale of the Verve

3 – Made from Lucky

4 – Frammento

5 – American Pharoah

6 – Frosted

7 – Keen Ice

8 – Materiality

When I first began writing about horse racing my goals were to learn about horse racing and share what I was learning with other casual fans who may not know much about the sport – another goal of mine was to continue writing until I had followed a Triple Crown winner……and over the past years, accomplishing the latter goal has felt like this:

In 2008 I really thought Big Brown was a lock to win the Triple Crown, but due to equipment failure he was unable to complete the race.

2012 brought the rise of I’ll Have Another  – however an injury before the Belmont prevented him from even entering the race.

And finally last year came the California favorite – California Chrome, who sustained an injury at the beginning of the race and finished 4^th in the Belmont, likely due to the discomfort of the injury.

The Belmont has been a lot of Badluck the past few years --- however #5 American Pharoah will suit up today and hopefully bring home the first Triple Crown in almost 40 years.

American Pharoah has only lost one race – and it was the first race of his career. Since then he has been magnificent – twice he has defeated opponents on a sloppy track in pouring rain.

He’s shown a fighters quality down the stretch when rivals were looking to steal away his victory and he runs with a maturity that is uncommon for his age.

In other words – if you’re looking for a Triple Crown contender who’s got it all – look no further than American Pharoah.

His biggest challengers today are fatigue and the daunting distance of this race.

For those who don’t follow horse racing – these horses have never run a mile and ½ before – it is likely the longest distance they’ll ever run in their careers.

Also  – out of this group of horses, only American Pharoah has raced three times (Kentucky Derby, Preakness and The Belmont) in 5 weeks -- most of the time these horse will run once a month at most!

Looking at his competition –

#1 Mubtaahij – concerns me the most – he had a terrible Kentucky Derby, but this horse may have the best breeding and training for the Belmont Distance. This horse closes  swiftly like he’s got warp speed – so he could be the real heartbreaker in this one......he's also an Irish horse -- and for some reason the Irish horses are always trouble.

#2 Tale of the Verve – finished a distant 2^nd in the Preakness Stakes behind American Pharoah – Tale of the Verve only has 1 victory in 7 attempts – maybe the ownership thinks he’s got the distance in this one?

#3 Madefromlucky – won the Peter Pan Stakes here at Belmont a month ago – he’s been defeated twice by American Pharoah already (finishing 2^nd in the Rebel, and 4^th in the Arkansas Derby) – I think Madefromlucky could be a real contender to finish in the top three.

#4 Frammento – 30/1 longshot, who finished 11^th in the Kentucky Derby – and he has 1 career victory.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
would like to order a
 Frosted, Keen Iced
Frammento....please!

#6 Frosted – finished 4^th in the Kentucky Derby  but was closing in on the top three at the wire. If American Pharoah is fatigued, I agree with the general consensus (Frosted is the second favorite) that  Frosted certainly could be one of the horses to contend for a victory – however this horse only has 2 victories in 8 attempts.

#7 Keen Ice finished 7^th in the Kentucky Derby and has 1 victory in 8 attempts.

#8 Materiality – finished 6^th in the Kentucky Derby – however the Kentucky Derby was this horse’s only loss in 4 attempts. I don’t know if this horse has the distance in him, but I think Materiality could be the horse that pushes American Pharoah today.

The Belmont is Coming........

As a horse racing enthusiast and American Pharoah fan – I’m hoping for a Triple Crown victory today…..the smart handicapper would likely tell you that the Belmont Stakes will once again crush my hopes ----like George R.R. Martin was writing it’s outcome –

But this blog was designed for a Triple Crown victory…..so ---

Closing Speed likes:  American Pharoah,  Mubtaahij, Frosted

If I'm betting $26 today --

$6 Exacta Box - Frosted, Keen Ice and Frammento (because fate would just love to kick me in the shins and have my imaginary Cheetah make the right call on this one).

$5 to win on numbers #1, #2, #3 and #8.

The Preakness - 2015

Pimlico  - May 16, 2015

Race 13 - 6:18 PM

Preakness Stakes.   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,500,000

Distance - One And Three Sixteenth Miles

Surface – Dirt

American Pharoah

Dortmund

Mr. Z

Danzig Moon

Tale of Verve

Bodhisattva

Diving Rod

Firing Line

Like most anyone who follows horse racing – or even just tuned in to the Kentucky Derby, I believe this race is a three horse race – between the Win, Place and Show horses of the KY Derby – American Pharoah, Dortmund and Firing Line.

If you missed the Kentucky Derby:

#1 American Pharoah – looked his normal, fantastic self in the Kentucky Derby – running just as I (and many expected) to victory. Watching this horse run is a thing of beauty – he seems to effortlessly glide into the final stretch, and then he’ll give you another level that separates him from the rest of the pack. He struggled a little with the distance in the Kentucky Derby – which is not unusual for all horses his age, and since the Preakness is a slightly shorter race, he should be solid here.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
does NOT like the sounds of
Tabasco Cat!

The big concern is that he starts on the rail – where a horse hasn’t won the Preakness since Tabasco Cat in 1994.

#2 Dortmund looked gassed at the end of the Kentucky Derby – there are two distinct possibilities – he just wasn’t “feeling” it for the biggest race of his life or more likely he just isn’t meant for a distance over a mile and 1/8.  I believe it’s the latter – at this point in his life (and maybe for his career) – he can challenge and beat almost anyone at 1 1/16 miles or 1 1/8 miles – which means he can win a LOT of money in his career, but the Triple Crown races may be out of reach.

Then again, if the Kentucky Derby was just an off day – or he didn’t like the feel of the track and he can return to his earlier Spring Form – he could certainly challenge today.

Similar to American Pharaoh – his post position also comes with a bit of historical bad news – the last horse to win from the #2 spot was Snow Chief in 1986.

"13 Month Old Baby
broke the looking glass"

#3 Mr. Z – has 1 victory in 13 attempts, in the Kentucky Derby he finished 13 – the Preakness is Race #13!!!! If you’re more superstitious – than Stevie Wonder….than I suppose go for it – but Mr. Z (while he’s a quality horse) hasn’t shown enough talent to really compete with these horses.

#4 Danzig Moon – has 1 victory in 6 attempts – he finished 5^th in the KY Derby – I think he “could” squeak into the top three with a lot of help – but I just don’t see it happening.

#5 Tale of the Verve – has 1 victory in 6 attempts – however his only victory, was his most recent race at this distance. He comes in slightly more rested than the horses who raced in the KY Derby, and his odds are at 30-1 – which has my interest, however he’s never raced against this kind of competition.

#6 Bodhisattva – has a very cool name which means the following: (in Mahayana Buddhism) a person who is able to reach nirvana but delays doing so out of compassion in order to save suffering beings.

Is it just me – or did the owners give this horse a name that implies he lets others cross the finish line before him?? 

He has gone to Nirvana first in 3 out of 11 races – and his last race was a victory here at Pimlico.

Bodhisattva – is another horse who has never competed at this level – so 20/1 odds seems legit. I like his victory in Pimlico – but not against the top three.

#7 Diving Rod – enters the Preakness with 2 victories in 5 attempts – however one of his victories was in his last race the Coolmore Lexington Stakes over a month ago.

What concerns me about this horse is that he is rested compared to the big three and he was sired by Tapit – Tapit horses always concern me. I believe this horse “could” sneak into the top three with some help – but I still don’t see it.

#8 Firing Line – the closest we have to an upset in the Preakness would likely have to come from Firing Line who finished a very competitive 2^nd in the Kentucky Derby (so not much of an upset really).

Firing Line has a great post for this race and will be able to dictate his own race – he is a gutsy fighter of a horse – however in the “big” races he tends to always find a way to finish 2^nd --- against Dortmund he twice finished 2^nd by a nose – he finally surpasses Dortmund by several lengths only to finish 2^nd against American Pharoah.

If you’re going to bet against the favorite – Firing Line seems to be your best option, however I think he lacks a killer instinct.

As I see it – Firing Line has the most going for him, he’ll be able to dictate his entire race and unless he’s fatigued (which is possible) I think he’s a lock for 1^st or 2^nd place.

American Pharoah and Dortmund will need a VERY clean break from the gate and hope to prevent horses #3 through #7 boxing them in.

Dortmund prefers to be a front runner – so if he gets “really” boxed in, I don’t know if he has the maturity to overcome it – this could be a very bad set-up for this horse.

American Pharoah I have seen run with maturity – and if he gets boxed in early I believe he can still overcome those obstacles – the problem is, will he still have enough time to be patient and break clean from being boxed in and still catch Firing Line in the final stretch??

I’m hoping to see American Pharoah make a run at the Triple Crown – so no surprises here:

Closing Speed likes: 
American Pharoah / Firing Line / Dortmund

I think if you’re betting $20 you use a pick 3 in races #12, #13 The Preakness, and #14.

Here’s my Pick 3 using American Pharoah as the “anchor” of my line-up.

Race #12 – it’s WIDE open and has tons of long shot potential – pick any 5 horses you like here – I’m going with: #3, #4, #7, #11 and #14

Race #13 - #1 American Pharoah

Race #14 –Upsets very possible, pick any 4 horses – my choice:  #2, #4, #8, #9

Kentucky Derby 2015

Churchhill Downs – May 2, 2015

Race 11 - 6:45 PM

Kentucky Derby (Grade I)

Purse - $2,000,000

Distance - One And One Quarter Miles

Surface - Dirt

1 –  Ocho Ocho Ocho 2 – Carpe Diem                                                 3 – Materiality                                                   4 – Tencendur                                                   5 – Danzig Moon                                                              6 – Mubtaahij                                                                    7 – El Kabeir 8 – Dortmund 9 –  Bolo 10 – Firing Line

11 – Stanford 12 – International Star 13 – Itsknockout 14 – Keen Ice 15 – Frosted 16 – War Story 17 – Mr. Z 18 – American Pharoah 19 – Upstart 20 – Far Right 21 - Frammento

**First some fun facts to entertain your friends:

• If you like "betting" the jockey Victor Espinoza won the Kentucky Derby last year and is riding the favorite American Pharoah this year.
• Jockey Calvin Borel has won three out of the last eight Kentucky Derbies and is on board #7 El Kabir.
• Only three of these horses were sired by Kentucky Derby winners - (Ocho, Ocho, Ocho / 2007 Street Sense) // (Dortmund // 2008 Big Brown) and (International Star // 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus)
• I've checked several times and they misspelled Pharoah -- my auto spell is NOT happy.

Most experts agree this is one of the most competitive Kentucky Derbies we've seen in a long time. Two of these horses are undefeated, and three of these horses only have one loss!!            

                                     

I believe you can easily make cases for 7 or 8 of these horses….and that’s what I’m about to do.

Let’s begin with #2 Carpe Diem – his only loss was in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile (2^nd place) and that was his only loss in 5 races. Incidentally he was defeated by Texas Red who is off the Derby Trail.

Here is Carpe Diem’s last race - the Blue Grass Stakes:

(also featuring: #1 Ocho Ocho Ocho & #5 Danzig Moon)

Carpe Diem has been very impressive his entire career and the morning line has Carpe Diem at 8/1 odds – unfortunately he may have the most to overcome of all of the really quality horses. Carpe Diem will need a fast, clean break out of the gate and then to overtake the lead in the first turn. If he can accomplish that he’ll have a solid shot at going Wire to Wire in this one.

Unfortunately there are so many good horses in this race, I think he could easily get swallowed up in traffic before they hit the first turn and never find a way out.  Nobody is going to “help” this horse win.

Next to Carpe Diem is Florida Derby winner  #3 Materiality, who outlasted serious contender #19 Upstart.

Here is the Florida Derby:

(also featuring #12 Itsknockout & #19 Upstart)

Materiality enters this race undefeated – and his victory in Florida is impressive. He’ll have the same struggle as Ocho Ocho Ocho and Carpe Diem in that he’ll need to escape the starting  gate without error or his race could be over in less than 4 seconds.

Materiality is going off at 12-1 – I think fair odds would have him closer to 15 or 20 to 1. I don’t like his lack of experience….and he’ll need some luck in the beginning – but (similar to Carpe Diem) if he can escape the traffic and grab the rail early, he looks legit.

#6 Mubtaahij (means “elated” in Arabic” – however he’s an Irish Horse) absolutely crushed the competition in the UAE Derby – (for those who don’t know the UAE Derby is in Dubai) – See Here:

It’s not often we get the UAE Derby winner in the Kentucky Derby – so this is really cool! This horse brings a lot of mystery to the table and it would not surprise me if his odds go from 20-1 to somewhere around 10-1 or lower. Watching this race he looks like a monster to me (not the only one in this field though) ---- however most horses do not travel well – and Dubai to Kentucky is no easy trip, including the time change that I’m sure messes with a horses schedule.

He’s got everything going for him except the jet lag – I like this horse to be competitive, but a victory is asking a lot.

***Incidentally he's an Irish Horse -- and Irish Horses are always tricky -- for me they either seem to finish first (when I don't bet on them) or last (when I do).

#8 Dortmund is currently the 2^nd morning line favorite and for a number of very good reasons. He is undefeated in 6 races and has a fantastic post position. His last victory was the Santa Anita Derby – (also featuring #9 Bolo).

**As a side note Dortmund, twice squeaked out wins against #10 Firing Line.

Dortmund deserves to be a favorite in this race, however I don’t like the 3-1 morning odds. I don’t think he’s seen enough competition, and I think there’s too much talent in this race for him to be sitting at 3-1.

#12 International Star is currently going off at 20-1 – and this may be the horse flying under the radar. His lifetime record is 5 wins in 9 races – however he’s won his last three. Here he is duking it out in the Louisiana Derby:

(also featured: #11 Stanford, #14 Keen Ice, & #16 War Story)

International Star has a great post position – he’s got a lot of experience and he’s on a 3 race winning streak – he’s very tempting at 20-1 – if his odds stay here or go higher, you should really consider at least wagering $2 on this one.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
says the Cold Never Bothered
Him Anyway......

 Going off at 15-1 is Wood Memorial Winner #15 Frosted – I personally am not enamored with Frosted, and not just because when I think of his name I think of a very popular Disney Tune……I think the general consensus was that #7 El Kabeir would finally put his talent together and win the Wood Memorial, instead he came in a distant 3^rd, so Frosted was a bit of a surprise. 

See Wood Memorial: (also featuring #4 Tencendur and #7 El Kabeir)

Frosted only has 2 victories in 7 attempts and I would need to see odds north of 20-1 before even considering this horse.

Finally we come to the favorite #18 American Pharoah – winner of the Arkansas Derby, and a horse who has also won 4 of his last 5 races.

(Arkansas Derby – also featuring #17 Mr. Z and #20 Far Right)

The expectation is that American Pharoah will patiently wait in the opening stretch to find the right spot and then slowly move to the left….he’ll have ample time to do it from the 18^th spot, and he should be able to dictate where he'll be going into the first turn.

He’ll go wide in the first turn and at that point we’ll find out what kind of competition he’ll be looking at……did Carpe Diem or Materiality find a way to survive the opening …if they did American Pharoah will need to have the race of a lifetime….if they didn’t, things are looking up for American Pharoah.

Coming out of the first turn American Pharoah will be close to the lead –(a length or a few lengths off) and we’ll see if anyone is there to challenge him – likely Dortmund, Firing Line (don’t forget this horse) or International Star – all could be a few lengths ahead  or even with him as they hit the second turn.

If all of the major contenders (except Mubtaahij) are behind American Pharoah as they come out of the second turn and head for home…..then I believe only Mubtaahij stands a real chance at catching this horse from behind.

If Dortmund, Firing Line or International Star have the inside (and American Pharoah is forced wide in the final turn) and any of these horses have a length or two ahead of American Pharoah….it could be a nail-biting finish!!

Closing Speed likes: American Pharoah / Firing Line and Dortmund

If I’m betting $24 on this race I like:

$1 Exacta Box: 2,3,18 (Carpe Diem / Materiality/ American Pharoah) = $6

$1 Exacta Box: 6,10,19 with 8, 18 = $6

$1 Exacta Box: 8,18 with 6,10,19 = $6

$2 – to win – 20, 19, 6 = 6