Belmont Stakes 2023

Belmont Park
RACE 12 - 7:02 PM
Belmont S. (Grade I)
Purse - $1,500,000
Distance - One And one ½ Miles
Surface – Dirt

1 – Tapit Shoes
2 – Tapit Trice                           
3 – Arcangelo
4 – National Treasure                                   
5 – Il Miracolo   
6 – Forte                           
7 – Hit Show
8 – Angel Of Empire
9 – Red Route One

Let’s begin with the Preakness Winner #4 National Treasure – who went stride for stride with Blazing Sevens and squeaked out a HUGE win. 

I thought both of those horses would fade and that Mage and Red Route One would give us an electric late charge….but that was not the case. 

If you missed it – here is the race:

There are a couple of interesting storylines with the 155^th Belmont Stakes – the most important is the hazardous air quality in New York from the wildfires in Canada. 

Here’s hoping this difficult time ends soon for our friends in New York. 

Air Quality will definitely have an effect on the Training, Riding and Racing before the Belmont - that is IF it's still run this Saturday.

The next biggest story is the hopeful return of, the current 5-2 favorite, #6 Forte. I thought there was a very good chance this horse could be a Triple Crown contender before he was scratched before the Kentucky Derby. 

I still believe he’s easily the best 3 year old running this year – and only two horses in the field have ever won at Belmont – and he’s one of them! 

However the distance does concern me, especially because we’ve never seen this horse run more than a mile and 1/8^th. 

With a unique longer distance after a two and half month lay-off and possible small injury…..this horse may be a little rusty for this race. 

I guess what I’m saying is…when he’s healthy and ready – he’s definitely the favorite – are we sure he’s completely healthy and ready??

#1 Tapit Shores – hasn’t produced a victory since December 2022 – he finished 2^nd behind #9 Red Route One in late April. This horse has like a 12 Owner Partnership….maybe he’s just entered so that the owners can party at Belmont…….I’d believe it.

#2 Tapit Trice – Finished a disappointing 7^th in the Kentucky Derby – before then he had 4 straight wins with Luis Saez on board – and Saez will be on board for the Belmont. This horse is a contender in this race – but I’m not a huge fan of him winning. Currently he’s the second favorite at 3-1 and I don’t think he should be. I don’t think he can close the deal at a Mile and a half. 

And yes Tapit Shores and Tapit Trice are half-brothers.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
thinks it would be awkward
to meet your half brother for
the first time in the Starters Gate
of a big race.

#3 Arcangelo – I think this horse may be flying under the radar a little – he’s got 2 straight victories with Castellano coming into this race and continues to improve as they add distance. 

And his last victory was here at Belmont! 

He hasn’t seen this kind of talent yet – so it could be overwhelming, but keep this horse in mind to take a top 3 spot at the end of the race – if you’re looking for a “value bet” he could be the one to add to your exotics. 

#4 National Treasure – the only horse running in the Belmont with a Triple Crown victory is going off as the 4^th Favorite……talk about no respect....but then again, the FILM is also kind of disrespected!!

This image is similar to me reviewing 
where I went WRONG in the Preakness.

I thought this horse would do a HARD FADE in the Preakness and I was wrong – out of 6 lifetime races he’s only finished out of the money once.

Jockey John Velazquez will be on board again – and I think National Treasure has more of a chance than people are giving him credit for.

 #5 Il Miracolo – Is the Colpo Lungo in this race at 30-1. He recently scored an Allowance Race victory but out of 6 Stakes races….he’s never finished better than 5^th.  If you were to make me your Race Day Consigliere I would tell you to “Stai lontano…Capiche??

#7 Hit Show – When you consider how difficult it is to climb out of the #1 spot in the Kentucky Derby – his 5^th place finish is impressive. This horse has 3 Wins and 1 Place in 6 races. He has Manuel Franco has his rider who has been with him during the last three races.

I just don’t see this horse improving with distance.

#8 Angel of Empire – Finished 3^rd behind Mage and Two Phil’s in the Kentucky Derby – and if Flavien Prat could have made the move around the edge when he wanted they might have won the Kentucky Derby.

I like Angel of Empire with distance and I believe Angel of Empire should be the 2^nd favorite in this race – currently at 7-2 odds he’s the third favorite.

Angel of Empire had 2 victories and a second place in three Stakes races leading up to the Kentucky Derby. They have something to prove here.

#9 Red Route One – finished 4^th in the Preakness. I really thought this horse was ready to make an upset in the Preakness, but as they headed for home he didn’t offer much.

With a longer distance – and an improved field, I don’t like his chances.

How I see the 2023 Belmont –

I think Il Miracolo will set the pace along with National Treasure – Tapit Shoes may also join the early runners.

In the past there has been an effective strategy in the Belmont Stakes of taking an early lead and then just hoping to outlast the rest of the pack….the daunting distance can cause many horses to just give out before they even get close to the leader.

For National Treasure I think this strategy is worth considering – after all it worked in the Preakness.

If Forte is game, you can expect him to stalk the lead(s) but maintaining a smart pace. Angel of Empire will likely be stalking Forte – the idea may be that when Forte commits to the stretch run Flavien Prat will ask Angel of Empire to commit as well.

It will be interesting to me to see if they want to position Angel of Empire in front of Forte or immediately behind him.

The question will be where will Tapit Thrice and Arcangelo run – I imagine they will have the same strategy as Angel of Empire – in keeping close to Forte.

As we head for the LONG WOBBLY stretch home –

I think National Treasure will have a few lengths on most of the pack and clear ground in front of him.

I believe Forte, Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice and Arcangelo will make a solid bid at the lead.

I think Angel of Empire steals one from Forte at the wire…..National Treasure hanging on to 3rd with Arcangelo and Tapit Trice looking to take 4th.

Closing Speed likes:  Angel of Empire, Forte, National Treasure

If I’m betting $16 to $34 – this is what I like:

$10 Win - #4

$1 Box Exacta – 4,6,8 = $6

$1 Box Trifecta – 3,4,6,8 = $24

Belmont Stakes 2021

Belmont Park
RACE 11 - 6:49 PM
Belmont S. (Grade I)
Purse - $1,500,000

Distance - One And one ½ Miles
Surface – Dirt

 

1 – Bourbonic

2 – Essential Quality                                                       

3 – Rombauer

4 – Hot Rod Charlie                                         

5 – France Go de Ina      

6 – Known Agenda                                         

7 – Rock Your World

8 – Overtook

Writing about the 2021 Belmont Stakes feels more like I’m writing a Sherlock Holmes novel:

THE CASE OF THE BAFFLING BELMONT !!!!

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
questions how difficult this Belmont is
or if the writer just enjoys
alliteration.

In the past I have been far more comfortable choosing my pick for this race – but I believe this year the race may be much trickier to forecast. 

We’ll start with our suspects:

#1 Bourbonic – in my Kentucky Derby offering this is what I wrote: 

***This horse should ABSOLUTELY be on your radar for the Belmont Stakes!

Bourbonic finished a distant 13^th in the Kentucky Derby – however I believe this horse is the best built for this distance, AND Bourbonic is back on his home dirt in New York. He’s currently listed at 15/1 odds for a race I believe he’s got the stamina for – in fact, I think Bourbonic is the rare case of a horse that prefers this kind of distance – the problem  is – the Belmont Stakes are usually the only time a horse runs a mile and one half.

#2 Essential Quality – skipped the Preakness after finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Essential Quality was the favorite in the Kentucky Derby (morning odds have him as the favorite in the Belmont) – obviously many Horse Racing Bettors and Enthusiasts believe he’s still the best 3 year old of the crop.

Was the Kentucky Derby just bad luck??

Maybe the size of the race overwhelmed Essential Quality ---  OR is this horse only dominant at 1 1/8th miles or less??

I would not be surprised if the strategy for this horse is to take the early lead, ride the rail and just hope to lug his way home --- I’ve seen it work several times in the Belmont.  For my money – I think another horse will find a way to surpass him coming down the stretch.

Perhaps that horse will be Preakness winner #3 Rombauer – who stormed the final furlongs and looked downright dominant at the wire!!

I’ll be the first to admit – I was shocked.....I didn’t see anything on his resume that indicated he could contend…..but if you watch the Preakness finale again --- there’s little reason to suspect he won’t pull away with a huge win in the Belmont.

What makes his situation interesting however (and this Belmont so Baffling) is that his Jockey in the Preakness (Flavien Prat) will be riding and guiding #4 Hot Rod Charlie --- to make matters even stranger, John R. Velazquez (Rombauer’s Jockey in the Belmont) has never ridden this horse in a race.

 A bizarre bit of trivia for Rombauer is that in 8 races he has had 7 different jockeys?!?!

Here they are folks...all of Rombauers Riders
Who will ride him next?? It could be you!!

Velazquez is a fantastic rider, he’s won the Belmont Stakes twice --- but you have to question, what kind of working relationship will they have come race day?

 #4 Hot Rod Charlie – finished 3^rd in the Kentucky Derby with Flavien Prat aboard and didn’t compete in the Preakness.  Currently he’s going off as the “third” favorite with 7/2 odds.

 Hot Rod Charlie may also attempt to go wire to wire --- my gut tells me that if he ends up on the outside of Essential Quality and they both try to lug it out for the final ¼ mile – Essential Quality should be able to hold him off……but this is such a strange field – taking the odds on Hot Rod Charlie would make sense.

#5 France Go de Ina – is the longshot at 30-1 after finishing 7^th in the Preakness. “Maybe” this horse has acclimated to the US (after racing overseas) and is about to shock the world --- I think this horse will be lucky to finish in the top 5 – Le Pass.

#6 Known Agenda – at 6/1, I think people are doubting this horse because he hasn’t won since March and because of a horrible starting spot in the Kentucky Derby. It’s more like Forgotten Agenda!! I believe this horse is poised for a very solid race…..he’s had some bad luck – but has everything pointing in the right direction in the Belmont.

 #7 Rock Your World – I had this horse finishing 2^nd behind Medina Spirit in my Kentucky Derby post….instead this horse finished 17^th!! 

So will the “Real” Rock Your World please stand up…..please stand up??

This horse enjoyed 3 victories in Santa Anita – including defeating the Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit at Santa Anita…..my gut tells me this horse will look to compete early and fade fast.

I’m looking for him to tag along with Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie.

 #8 Overtook – recently finished 3^rd here at Belmont Park in the Peter Pan Stakes.  His 20/1 odds I think are very much worth a look in a Trifecta bet. Overtook may need some luck and hope some of the early runners fade….but in this race I think that’s very possible.

Here’s how I  picture the race – 

Bourbonic will drop WAAAAAAYYYY back --- he will begin to pick up steam after everyone else hits the middle of the last turn.

Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie will set the pace, I think Rock Your World will be in the early top 3, and stalk the lead.  My hunch is that they’re all watching what Essential Quality will do……I’ll be interested because they may see if Essential Quality can run a faster mile than expected and just hope to have a strong enough lead that everyone else won’t be able to make a final push!

Rombauer and Known Agenda will work the middle of the pack – both looking for their spots. 

Overtook is a bit of a mystery to me – he may run closer to the lead or may hang back with Rombauer and Known Agenda.

As they approach the final turn I suspect Rombauer will begin making his move – I think Known Agenda will follow…..at this point do either of them have the stamina to overtake the leaders?

Have the leaders put enough space behind them to lug home??

And FINALLY Bourbonic has woken up and is looks like a horse on fire from about 8 to 10 lengths back.

Closing Speed likes:  Known Agenda, Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, Bourbonic

If I’m betting $40 – this is what I like:

$5 Win - #1 - Bourbonic  (only at odds in the 15/1 area)

$5 Win - #8 Overtook  (only at odds in the 20/1 area)

$1 Box Exacta – 1, 2, 6

$1 Box Exacta – 1,2, 4, 6

The Case of the Baffling Belmont was all so
Elementary!

 

 

 

Belmont Stakes 2018 - Triple Crown Edition

Belmont Park - June 08, 2018

Race 11 - 6:46 PM

Belmont Stakes.   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,500,000

Distance - One And One Half Miles

Surface – Dirt

1 – Justify

2 – Free Drop Billy                                                           

3 – Bravazo

4 – Hofburg                                                       

5 – Restoring Hope                         

6 – Gronkowski                                                

7 – Tenfold

8 – Vino Rosso

9 – Noble Indy

10 – Blended Citizen

After the Preakness I couldn’t help but wonder  -

Was the reason that #1 Justify wasn’t as dominant in the Preakness (compared to the KY Derby) because he was worn out from simply racing two weeks before and also having to endure two consecutive races in the slop?

In the KY Derby – Justify ran a 22.24 Quarter mile and was driving through the finish line with plenty of lengths between him and the next horse. In the Preakness he ran a slower first quarter mile (23.1) – and at the finish line Good Magic was in fighting distance….and Bravazo was closing fast! Did Justify get a little lucky holding these horses off?? Is it possible this Triple Crown contender has nothing left in the tank??

OR -- Did Justify just use the Preakness as a Prep race for the Belmont (which incidentally would mean that Justify is about as BADASS as they come)?  The slower first quarter mile makes a lot more sense if they’re preparing Justify for a longer race (which the Belmont will be). And as they came to the finish line, perhaps Jockey Mike Smith knew he had the win in his back pocket and just let Justify cruise home…..sure Bravazo was bearing down on the leader….but Mike Smith knew it was too late and there was no reason to push.

Justify arrives in New York
Is this the next Triple Crown Winner?

Take a look at the Preakness (what you can see through the Fog) – what do you think???

Morning line odds have Justify at 4/5 odds – so, in short, the experts believe that the Belmont Stakes is Justify’s race to “lose”.

And not only do I agree with that – I’m certainly hoping to see another Triple Crown winner….and a well-deserved one at that.

After watching #3 Bravazo close in the Preakness – he’s certainly the challenger to watch – it appeared that Bravazo just needed another 20 yards to overcome Justify – and in the Belmont he’ll have an additional 5/16^th’s of a mile to work with.

As a side note – (based on Belmont History and Bravazo’s previous races) I wouldn’t be surprised if Bravazo comes out flat for the Belmont and when he is asked to close – he doesn’t respond. He may have taken his best shot at Justify in Pimlico and come up short…..we’ll see.

Just the race itself will be tricky for all of these horses – they’ve never run this distance before – and the timing can be very problematic.

Some Belmont winners have used early speed to build up a large enough lead that when they head for home the competition is so worn down – all of the horses kind of “slog” to the finish line – with the early leader having established just enough of a lead to hold off his weary foes.

Photo of previous Belmont Stakes

This could very well be Justifys strategy – he certainly has the early speed – however if you wear your horse out too quickly in the Belmont, you can be an easy target in the stretch run – timing is crucial.

A strategy to defeat Justify (and while it’s not very sportsmanlike – it is legal) would be to BOX Justify in early – and keep him there until the final turn – his #1 post position certainly makes him an easy target for this.

When I say Box him in – that would mean one of these horses would have to jump out to a very early lead and move directly in front of him…..in the meantime the other horses would press Justify against the rail – leaving Justify nowhere to move and forced to run whatever pace is set up for him.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
doesn't like being Boxed in
OR put in a corner -
And he may watch Dirty Dancing
after the Belmont.

Boxing a horse can be very unnerving for the horse – and certainly frustrating for a great horse like Justify.

As they come out of the final turn – “eventually” a hole would open up for Justify to run through …. but by then it could be too late.

I just don’t see any of these horses willing to jump out front and cut Justify off – Mike Smith is a very wily Jockey and as long as Justify gets out of the gates well – I don’t think Mike Smith will allow Justify to get boxed in.

I believe what we'll see is Justify contend for the early lead (perhaps with Bravazo) -- and then the remaining contenders will hope that Justify fades in the LONG final stretch.

#4 Hofburg, #8 Vino Rosso and #9 Noble Indy – are definitely contenders to watch – these three horses in my opinion have substantial talent and they haven’t raced since the Kentucky Derby  -- so they’ll have fresher legs than Justify and Bravazo.

Coming down to the wire – I’m not concerned that Justify won’t have the “heart” to win – but I am concerned one of these other horses will be better suited for this distance.

But what can I say Closing Speed is a sucker for a Triple Crown Contender….

Closing Speed likes:  Justify, Noble Indy, Vino Russo

Closing Speed also thinks that it’s likely Current New England Patriot Rob Gronkowski will be at the Belmont Stakes – and there should be 4/1 odds on him taking his shirt off after the race.

Can you imagine being named after the guy on the left....poor horse.

If I’m betting $30 – this is what I like:

$1 Box Trifecta – 1,3,8,9 = $24

$1 Box Exacta – 3,4,9 = $6

The Belmont Stakes

Belmont Park – June 10, 2016

Race 12 - 6:37 PM (EST)

Belmont Stakes (Grade I)

Purse - $1,500,000

Distance - One And One Half Miles

Surface - Dirt

1 – Twisted Tom

2 – Tapwrit

3 – Gormley

4 – J. Boys Echo

5 – Hollywood Handsome

6 – Lookin at Lee

7 – Irish War Cry

8 – Senior Investment

9 – Meantime

10 – Multiplier

11 – Epicharis

12 - Patch

Ahhhh the Belmont Stakes ----  the Test of Champions!!!

(Or as most of America views it when there isn’t a Triple Crown on the line):

They're still running races??
Why run when no one can win a Triple Crown?

To make matters worse…… or at least to make matters less interesting:

The Kentucky Derby Winner Always Dreaming is recovering from a light injury.

The Preakness Winner Cloud Computing will be….I don’t know......rebooting that day,

And Classic Empire who would likely be the favorite in this race – and one would imagine would like to pick up a Triple Crown victory….will be Classically Napping – which anyone who enjoys a good nap will understand how that is done.

Having read Pride and Prejudice for the 200th time because it's our
only book -- Molly takes a nap.

Looking at the field I feel it’s important to write that I believe this Belmont Stakes is wide open – I think the odds should be much closer bunched together – and I believe there’s a very good chance for a “relative” Long Shot to help you bring home some cash!

So let’s take a look at who will be racing –

#1 Twisted Tom – he’s won 4 out 6 lifetime races – he visited the Winner’s Circle in his last race and his odds are currently an enticing 20/1. He hasn’t raced against this quality of horse though,

HOWEVER – the real question in the Belmont is if he can handle the distance?? He’s had 49 days away from racing – he could be the big surprise here – and I love his post, but I like the talent I’ve seen from the other horses.

I wouldn’t mind seeing his odds get closer to 30-1 before laying down a bet.

#2 Tapwrit – Finished 6^th in a muddy Kentucky Derby, and before that he finished 5^th in the Blue Grass Stakes.

The Blue Grass Stakes results are always funky – and the Kentucky Derby was slop that day – Tapwrit is a solid late closing horse, I like him in this race.

#3 Gormley – Winner of the Santa Anita Derby – and finished a disappointing 9^th in the Kentucky Derby.

Gormley has won 4 out of 7 lifetime races – he’s a very talented horse and he certainly has a solid shot here .

#4 J Boys Echo – There are a lot of people, that I respect, that think J. Boys Echo (going off at 15/1) is the horse to beat in the Belmont Stakes.  After finishing 15^th in the KY Derby and 4^th in the Blue Grass Stakes – I believe some bettors are throwing both of those races away – and instead looking at his victory in the Gotham stakes where he beat Preakness Winner Cloud Computing.

He only has 2 wins in 7 races – but the Gotham was a big one.  I’m hearing a lot of talk from the track, and those folks often know the inside scoop. Just letting you know.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
understands the hardships of
being Hollywood Handsome.

#5 Hollywood Handsome – 2 wins in 9 races and  going off at 30/1 – Has lost races to Multiplier and Patch. Probably just hoping to pick up some money in a 3^rd or 4^th place finish. Great name for a horse, but this horse has been without a Blockbuster so far.

#6 Lookin at Lee – Hasn’t won a race since August 2016 – however he’s very good at ending up in the money. He has 2 wins in 11 races – he finished 3^rd in the Arkansas Derby, 2^nd in the Kentucky Derby and 4^th in the Preakness Stakes.

I like Lookin at Lee – he’s a late closing horse – but I think (at this point) he's been raced too much – he maybe should be Classically Napping with Classic Empire and Molly -- I like him to be in the Top 3 but I don’t like him for a win here.

#7 Irish War Cry – Currently he’s the favorite in this race at 7/2. He finished a disappointing 10^th in the Kentucky Derby, however he had a very unfortunate starting position in that race – a month before the KY Derby he won the Wood Memorial (here in New York) – beating Preakness winner Cloud Computing.

Irish War Cry has 4 wins in 6 races and when it comes to running a Mile and 1/8^th I think Irish War Cry is likely the best horse in this field. But I don’t know that he’s going to have the distance in this one.

#8 Senior Investment – has won 3 out of 9 career races and most notably finished 1^st in the Lexington Stakes and 3^rd in the Preakness.

Senior Investment looks like he has the distance in him for the Belmont Stakes – I really think this horse has a shot – the big question is if he’ll be rested enough after only a 21 day lay off from the Preakness.

#9 Meantime – has 1 win in 4 attempts – my hunch here is that Meantime hopes to build a very early lead and then hope all the other horses are too exhausted to catch up --- I have seen this work in the Belmont before, but I don’t know that Meantime will be able to build that kind of lead.

#10 Multiplier – Won the Illinois Derby and then finished 6^th in the Preakness Stakes. Multiplier has a good late kick – but I’ve gotta say I’m disappointed with that 6^th place finish in the Preakness, along with the fact that he’ll only have 21 days rest before this race.

#11 Epicharis – the true wild card in this race!  This horse is currently the 2^nd favorite in this race going off at 4/1, just behind Irish War Cry at 7/2.

Epicharis is a lifetime 4 wins in 5 races and his only loss was in the UAE Derby where he finished 2^nd by a nod of the head to (I REALLY HATE RAINY KENTUCKY MUD) Thunder Snow.

Thunder Snow would be the horse in the very back - FREAKING OUT!

Epicharis definitely has the Past Performances and Talent to deserve being the favorite or second favorite in this race.

However – he hasn’t raced in 77 days and he will have to acclimate to a different continent and also (more importantly) different drug rules  -- legal supplements vary from State to State in the US – let alone the World.

Under normal circumstances I would understand considering this horse the ideal horse to win here. But horses traveling this kind of distance usually don’t fare well in their first race in a new environment.

#12 Patch – The one eyed wonder only has 1 win in 4 attempts – although he did finish 2^nd in the Louisiana Derby. This horse is a great story --- and I do think this race is fairly wide open, but he’ll need a break out performance and some sizeable luck to pull off a win here. Would have preferred his ownership raced him in the Iowa Derby in early July.

Here's how I see the Belmont Stakes -- I'm looking for Meantime, Irish War Cry and Epicharis to set the early pace -- Gormley and J. Boys Echo will likely be in the middle of the pack -- and I'll be looking for Tapwit, Lookin' at Lee and Multiplier to be towards the back as they enter the second turn.

Coming out of the final turn -- I believe Meantime will fade...HARD -- like the kind of fade where he goes from 2nd to last in about 3 seconds.

Irish War Cry and Epicharis may have enough talent and stamina to finish the Belmont like a 15 round heavyweight fight -- where Irish War Cry and Epicharis will basically be looking just to keep standing at the end.

In this scenario -- the late closers will be too far from the lead to significantly close ground on the leaders -- the closers will have "some" burst, but not enough to steal a victory.

I don't believe Irish War Cry and Epicharis pull this one off though -- I think Epicharis comes out rusty and fades early.

I think Irish War Cry will swing out of the final turn free and clear -- but I don't think he'll have enough of a lead or the endurance to hold off the late closers.

I like Gormley, Tapwrit, J. Boys Echo and especially Senior Investment to make enough of a late run to pull off a mild upset.

I don't think Multiplier or Patch can do it -- and I think Lookin' At Lee could finish anywhere between 2nd and 7th -- just depends on how much energy he has left in the tank.

In the end -- I like Irish War Cry to be the early leader who has just enough to finish in the money.

I like Tapwrit -- because he's had enough rest, and he can close.

But I'm taking Senior Investment -- because this horse has awesome closing abilities and I like his chances in this one!

Closing Speed likes:  Senior Investment, Tapwrit, & Irish War Cry

If I’m betting $29 on this race I like:

$1 Exacta: 2/4/7/8 = $24

$5 Gormley to Win.

Belmont Stakes - Triple Crown Edition

Belmont Park – June 6, 2015

Race 11 - 6:50 PM

Belmont Stakes (Grade I)

Purse - $1,500,000

Distance - One And One Half Miles

Surface – Dirt

1 – Mubtaahij

2 – Tale of the Verve

3 – Made from Lucky

4 – Frammento

5 – American Pharoah

6 – Frosted

7 – Keen Ice

8 – Materiality

When I first began writing about horse racing my goals were to learn about horse racing and share what I was learning with other casual fans who may not know much about the sport – another goal of mine was to continue writing until I had followed a Triple Crown winner……and over the past years, accomplishing the latter goal has felt like this:

In 2008 I really thought Big Brown was a lock to win the Triple Crown, but due to equipment failure he was unable to complete the race.

2012 brought the rise of I’ll Have Another  – however an injury before the Belmont prevented him from even entering the race.

And finally last year came the California favorite – California Chrome, who sustained an injury at the beginning of the race and finished 4^th in the Belmont, likely due to the discomfort of the injury.

The Belmont has been a lot of Badluck the past few years --- however #5 American Pharoah will suit up today and hopefully bring home the first Triple Crown in almost 40 years.

American Pharoah has only lost one race – and it was the first race of his career. Since then he has been magnificent – twice he has defeated opponents on a sloppy track in pouring rain.

He’s shown a fighters quality down the stretch when rivals were looking to steal away his victory and he runs with a maturity that is uncommon for his age.

In other words – if you’re looking for a Triple Crown contender who’s got it all – look no further than American Pharoah.

His biggest challengers today are fatigue and the daunting distance of this race.

For those who don’t follow horse racing – these horses have never run a mile and ½ before – it is likely the longest distance they’ll ever run in their careers.

Also  – out of this group of horses, only American Pharoah has raced three times (Kentucky Derby, Preakness and The Belmont) in 5 weeks -- most of the time these horse will run once a month at most!

Looking at his competition –

#1 Mubtaahij – concerns me the most – he had a terrible Kentucky Derby, but this horse may have the best breeding and training for the Belmont Distance. This horse closes  swiftly like he’s got warp speed – so he could be the real heartbreaker in this one......he's also an Irish horse -- and for some reason the Irish horses are always trouble.

#2 Tale of the Verve – finished a distant 2^nd in the Preakness Stakes behind American Pharoah – Tale of the Verve only has 1 victory in 7 attempts – maybe the ownership thinks he’s got the distance in this one?

#3 Madefromlucky – won the Peter Pan Stakes here at Belmont a month ago – he’s been defeated twice by American Pharoah already (finishing 2^nd in the Rebel, and 4^th in the Arkansas Derby) – I think Madefromlucky could be a real contender to finish in the top three.

#4 Frammento – 30/1 longshot, who finished 11^th in the Kentucky Derby – and he has 1 career victory.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
would like to order a
 Frosted, Keen Iced
Frammento....please!

#6 Frosted – finished 4^th in the Kentucky Derby  but was closing in on the top three at the wire. If American Pharoah is fatigued, I agree with the general consensus (Frosted is the second favorite) that  Frosted certainly could be one of the horses to contend for a victory – however this horse only has 2 victories in 8 attempts.

#7 Keen Ice finished 7^th in the Kentucky Derby and has 1 victory in 8 attempts.

#8 Materiality – finished 6^th in the Kentucky Derby – however the Kentucky Derby was this horse’s only loss in 4 attempts. I don’t know if this horse has the distance in him, but I think Materiality could be the horse that pushes American Pharoah today.

The Belmont is Coming........

As a horse racing enthusiast and American Pharoah fan – I’m hoping for a Triple Crown victory today…..the smart handicapper would likely tell you that the Belmont Stakes will once again crush my hopes ----like George R.R. Martin was writing it’s outcome –

But this blog was designed for a Triple Crown victory…..so ---

Closing Speed likes:  American Pharoah,  Mubtaahij, Frosted

If I'm betting $26 today --

$6 Exacta Box - Frosted, Keen Ice and Frammento (because fate would just love to kick me in the shins and have my imaginary Cheetah make the right call on this one).

$5 to win on numbers #1, #2, #3 and #8.