Belmont Stakes 2021

Belmont Park
RACE 11 - 6:49 PM
Belmont S. (Grade I)
Purse - $1,500,000

Distance - One And one ½ Miles
Surface – Dirt

 

1 – Bourbonic

2 – Essential Quality                                                       

3 – Rombauer

4 – Hot Rod Charlie                                         

5 – France Go de Ina      

6 – Known Agenda                                         

7 – Rock Your World

8 – Overtook

Writing about the 2021 Belmont Stakes feels more like I’m writing a Sherlock Holmes novel:

THE CASE OF THE BAFFLING BELMONT !!!!

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
questions how difficult this Belmont is
or if the writer just enjoys
alliteration.

In the past I have been far more comfortable choosing my pick for this race – but I believe this year the race may be much trickier to forecast. 

We’ll start with our suspects:

#1 Bourbonic – in my Kentucky Derby offering this is what I wrote: 

***This horse should ABSOLUTELY be on your radar for the Belmont Stakes!

Bourbonic finished a distant 13^th in the Kentucky Derby – however I believe this horse is the best built for this distance, AND Bourbonic is back on his home dirt in New York. He’s currently listed at 15/1 odds for a race I believe he’s got the stamina for – in fact, I think Bourbonic is the rare case of a horse that prefers this kind of distance – the problem  is – the Belmont Stakes are usually the only time a horse runs a mile and one half.

#2 Essential Quality – skipped the Preakness after finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Essential Quality was the favorite in the Kentucky Derby (morning odds have him as the favorite in the Belmont) – obviously many Horse Racing Bettors and Enthusiasts believe he’s still the best 3 year old of the crop.

Was the Kentucky Derby just bad luck??

Maybe the size of the race overwhelmed Essential Quality ---  OR is this horse only dominant at 1 1/8th miles or less??

I would not be surprised if the strategy for this horse is to take the early lead, ride the rail and just hope to lug his way home --- I’ve seen it work several times in the Belmont.  For my money – I think another horse will find a way to surpass him coming down the stretch.

Perhaps that horse will be Preakness winner #3 Rombauer – who stormed the final furlongs and looked downright dominant at the wire!!

I’ll be the first to admit – I was shocked.....I didn’t see anything on his resume that indicated he could contend…..but if you watch the Preakness finale again --- there’s little reason to suspect he won’t pull away with a huge win in the Belmont.

What makes his situation interesting however (and this Belmont so Baffling) is that his Jockey in the Preakness (Flavien Prat) will be riding and guiding #4 Hot Rod Charlie --- to make matters even stranger, John R. Velazquez (Rombauer’s Jockey in the Belmont) has never ridden this horse in a race.

 A bizarre bit of trivia for Rombauer is that in 8 races he has had 7 different jockeys?!?!

Here they are folks...all of Rombauers Riders
Who will ride him next?? It could be you!!

Velazquez is a fantastic rider, he’s won the Belmont Stakes twice --- but you have to question, what kind of working relationship will they have come race day?

 #4 Hot Rod Charlie – finished 3^rd in the Kentucky Derby with Flavien Prat aboard and didn’t compete in the Preakness.  Currently he’s going off as the “third” favorite with 7/2 odds.

 Hot Rod Charlie may also attempt to go wire to wire --- my gut tells me that if he ends up on the outside of Essential Quality and they both try to lug it out for the final ¼ mile – Essential Quality should be able to hold him off……but this is such a strange field – taking the odds on Hot Rod Charlie would make sense.

#5 France Go de Ina – is the longshot at 30-1 after finishing 7^th in the Preakness. “Maybe” this horse has acclimated to the US (after racing overseas) and is about to shock the world --- I think this horse will be lucky to finish in the top 5 – Le Pass.

#6 Known Agenda – at 6/1, I think people are doubting this horse because he hasn’t won since March and because of a horrible starting spot in the Kentucky Derby. It’s more like Forgotten Agenda!! I believe this horse is poised for a very solid race…..he’s had some bad luck – but has everything pointing in the right direction in the Belmont.

 #7 Rock Your World – I had this horse finishing 2^nd behind Medina Spirit in my Kentucky Derby post….instead this horse finished 17^th!! 

So will the “Real” Rock Your World please stand up…..please stand up??

This horse enjoyed 3 victories in Santa Anita – including defeating the Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit at Santa Anita…..my gut tells me this horse will look to compete early and fade fast.

I’m looking for him to tag along with Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie.

 #8 Overtook – recently finished 3^rd here at Belmont Park in the Peter Pan Stakes.  His 20/1 odds I think are very much worth a look in a Trifecta bet. Overtook may need some luck and hope some of the early runners fade….but in this race I think that’s very possible.

Here’s how I  picture the race – 

Bourbonic will drop WAAAAAAYYYY back --- he will begin to pick up steam after everyone else hits the middle of the last turn.

Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie will set the pace, I think Rock Your World will be in the early top 3, and stalk the lead.  My hunch is that they’re all watching what Essential Quality will do……I’ll be interested because they may see if Essential Quality can run a faster mile than expected and just hope to have a strong enough lead that everyone else won’t be able to make a final push!

Rombauer and Known Agenda will work the middle of the pack – both looking for their spots. 

Overtook is a bit of a mystery to me – he may run closer to the lead or may hang back with Rombauer and Known Agenda.

As they approach the final turn I suspect Rombauer will begin making his move – I think Known Agenda will follow…..at this point do either of them have the stamina to overtake the leaders?

Have the leaders put enough space behind them to lug home??

And FINALLY Bourbonic has woken up and is looks like a horse on fire from about 8 to 10 lengths back.

Closing Speed likes:  Known Agenda, Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, Bourbonic

If I’m betting $40 – this is what I like:

$5 Win - #1 - Bourbonic  (only at odds in the 15/1 area)

$5 Win - #8 Overtook  (only at odds in the 20/1 area)

$1 Box Exacta – 1, 2, 6

$1 Box Exacta – 1,2, 4, 6

The Case of the Baffling Belmont was all so
Elementary!

 

 

 

Kentucky Derby 2021

Churchill Downs  – May 1^st, 2021
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $3,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface - Dirt

1 – Known Agenda 2 – Like the King 3 – Brooklyn Strong 4 – Keepmeinmind 5 – Sainthood 6 – O Besos 7 – Mandaloun 8 – Medina Spirit 9 –  Hot Rod Charlie 10 – Midnight Bourbon

11 – Dynamic One 12 – Helium 13 – Hidden Stash 14 – Essential Quality 15 – Rock Your World 16 – King Fury  (SCR) 17 – Highly Motivated 18 – Super Stock 19 – Soup and Sandwich 20 – Bourbonic

** I've written a quick snapshot of all of the horses – but #8 is where it gets interesting.

Tough luck for #1 Known Agenda who drew the rail – this horse is a quality horse and definitely has potential to win big races down the road – HOWEVER this post remind me of 2010 with Lookin’ At Lucky, who was an exceptional horse but got swallowed up early and managed a 6^th place finish.  I would need 30-1 odds here before I would even consider it….and the morning line was 6-1. Hard Pass!

#2 Like the King – 3 wins in 6 Starts – I think the competition is too much for him here.        

#3 Brooklyn Strong – 3 wins in 5 Starts – but finished 7^th in his last race featuring Winner #20 Bourbonic and 2^nd Place #11 Dynamic One.

#4 Keepmeinmind – recently finished 5^th in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Favorite #14 Essential Quality, and 2^nd place #17 Highly Motivated.  This horse has finished 4 times in the money out of 6.

I can actually feel this Saint disapproving of that
play on words. 

#5 Sainthood – Recently finished behind #2 Like the King – one could say he doesn't have a prayer. 

#6 O Besos – Fun Trivia – He is the only horse to be sired by a Kentucky Derby Winner in this field (Orb 2013) – but O Besos hasn’t flashed that kind of talent so far – finishing recently behind #9 Hot Rod Charlie, #7 Mandaloun and #10 Midnight Bourbon (Twice). His last victory was in January.

#7 Mandaloun – Beat Midnight Bourbon in the Lecomte, Lost to Midnight Bourbon in the following race Risen Star and then finished 6^th behind Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon and O Besos. Would need a lot of help here.

#8 Medina Spirit – Jockey J.R. Velazquez has won three Kentucky Derby’s, including 2020 onboard Authentic.  This horse has a GREAT Post….however out of 5 Races this horse has only won 2 and has finished 2^nd in the rest. Was expected to take the Santa Anita Derby, (with my Favorite Life is Good off the derby trail) – but #15 Rock # Your World stole the show. At 15/1 odds, with this post and this jockey, you have my attention!

#9 Hot Rod Charlie – Also a great Post – this horse has 2 wins in 7 attempts and looked great in the Louisiana Derby…..HOWEVER, his jockey J. Rosario will be riding #15 Rock Your World.

**However the Jockey they have is Flavien Prat has won the KY Derby before --- winning  the controversial 2019 Kentucky Derby.

Louisiana Derby 2021:

#10 Midnight Bourbon – Jockey "Big Money" Mike Smith has a pair of Kentucky Derby wins – most recently 2018 with Justify. Out of 7 Starts this horse has hit the Winners circle only twice….however this horse has finished Win/Place/Show – 7 out of 7. At 20-1 this horse makes a good horse to round out a Trifecta bet. 

#11 Dynamic One – Placed in the Wood Memorial behind #20 Bourbonic – up until the Wood Memorial this horse had an unimpressive resume. I firmly believe he’s well overmatched here – however  maybe this horse is putting it together at the right time? Would need 50-1 odds before I’d be interested. 

#12 Helium – (Speaking of finding interesting odds) --- DEFINITELY put this horse on your long shot list. This horse is undefeated in three races – including the Tampa Bay Derby….and he’s going well under the radar at 50-1.  In Tampa he defeated #13 Hidden Stash, who recently finished 4^th behind Favorite Essential Quality and Highly Motivated. 

**This Long shot has everything working for him – he’s still fairly unknown and he’s got the inside spot on MOST of the more favored horses. I rarely like Long Shots….but this horse may have just lucked into the Kentucky Derby and could finish dead last…..OR he could be the unknown factor that SHOCKS Churchhill Downs!!!

High on Helium - Tampa Bay Derby:

#13 Hidden Stash – Hasn’t seen the Winners Circle since November 2020. Solid Horse, will run an admirable race, but I see this horse finishing 3^rd at best. 

#14 Essential Quality – Is the “Heavy” Favorite at 2-1. I “should” love this horse – who is undefeated in 5 Starts including the Juvenile Breeders Cup. This horse is the picture of poise and maturity for a 3 year old – this Colt doesn’t “race” he floats to victory. 

*** Maybe I’ve got a California Bias (I really don’t think I do) – maybe I’m just seeing what I “need” to see – maybe I’ve had too much Midnight Bourbon ---  but I think the 2021 Kentucky Derby is the perfect storm for an upset….and I may be alone on this – but I think this year is the year NOT to bet the favorite(s) to win. 

There’s nothing wrong with this horse – but after the Juvenile Breeders Cup (which he won handily) – he’s raced in “gimme” races like the Southwest and Bluegrass…..incidentally I’ve NEVER trusted the results of the Blue Grass Stakes – and it’s never produced a Kentucky Derby Winner!! (Closest was Good Magic in 2018 – finished 2^nd).

I believe this horse will finish in the top 3 – but I’m anticipating UPSET!

2020 Breeders Cup

#15 Rock Your World – Winner of the Santa Anita Derby – this horse shocked So. Cal by hitting the Winner’s Circle on Dirt after having only previously raced on Turf. Rock Your World is undefeated in 3 races. His Jockey is Jockey is Joel Rosario (who won the Kentucky Derby on the aforementioned Orb).

Santa Anita Derby 2021:

#16 – King Fury – is scratched – had two victories at Churchhill Downs  - would have been interesting......in the mean time 

And because of the disappointing scratch here's a very young girl singing We Will Rock You to a Full Soccer Stadium -- in honor of Rock Your World!

**To quote William Shakespeare - though she be but little, she is fierce!

#17 – Highly Motivated – Last victory was in Nov. 2020 – Solid horse, definitely should be a consideration for the top 5 --- would need a lot of help to steal a victory. Recently finished 2^nd in the Bluegrass Stakes behind Essential Quality.

#18 – Super Stock – Won the Arkansas Derby – and has two victories in 8 races.  Will have Jockey Santana aboard again (from Arkansas). Maybe this horse has finally found his stride?? My thought is he’s a grinder, good all-around horse but out of his league here. 

 

#19 – Soup and Sandwich – I love this horse’s name…..he has 2 wins out of 3 Races and finished behind Known Agenda in the Florida Derby.  Unfortunately he hasn’t kept the same Jockey for consecutive races and his last rider Velazquez will be aboard #8 Medina Spirit.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah is VERY disappointed
to have come out of retirement for this 
kind of Soup and Sandwich!

#20 – Bourbonic – If you like LATE closers, this horse might be your guy. Bourbonic is in the perfect spot – he’ll likely hang well back for most of the race and hope to find a hole to burst through in the final furlongs. This horse has 3 victories in 6 attempts….two of those victories came with Carmouche on board.

I’m not a big fan of late charging horses in the Derby – finding a hole through 18 other horses coming out of the final turn is asking for some substantial luck. However at 30-1 this horse might be worth the risk.

***This horse should ABSOLUTELY be on your radar for the Belmont Stakes!

Wood Memorial:

Here’s how I see the race playing out –

#1 Known Agenda gets buried quick and fast -- he's lost this race even before we've hit 3 full seconds.

#8 Medina Spirit and #9 Hot Rod Charlie are going to push to set the tempo --- #15 Rock Your World may also challenge to set the pace early -- he may look to stalk the pace a few lengths behind in the first turn.

The “Big” questions are – Will #12 Helium also step up and challenge? And WHAT exactly will the strategy be for the favorite #14 Essential Quality?? 

Rock Your World, Medina Spirit and Hot Rod Charlie – I believe one of these horses will be the pace setter. ** Midnight Bourbon and Sainthood could be up front as well. 

** If Essential Quality pushes the pace early – this could set up a late closer like #20 Bourbonic (who will likely be at the very back of the pack until the middle of the second turn). 

** If Essential Quality wrangles for the middle of the pack he could get jostled in the traffic – setting up the early leads. 

** If Rock Your World  had to endure a wide trip he could fade – and if Essential Quality is stuck in traffic – that opens things up for Medina Spirit / Hot Rod Charlie / (Maybe) Helium and Bourbonic. 

Sometime you’re betting the best HORSE in the Race – this year, you may be betting the “size” and “strategy” of the Kentucky Derby. 

Closing Speed likes:  Medina Spirit, Rock Your World, Midnight Bourbon (Essential Quality 4th)

If I’m betting $36 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box: 8,9,14,20 = $24

$1 Exacta: 14, 15 with 8,9,12, 20 = $12

Longshots:

$5 Win/Place – #8 Medina Spirit = $10

$2 Across the Board - #12 Helium = $6

 $2 Across the Board - # 20 Bourbonic = $6

$2  Across the Board - #10 Midnight Bourbon = $6

Orb - 2013 Twin Spires!