Florida Derby & Louisiana Derby

Gulfstream Park  - April 1^st 2017

Race 14 - 6:40 PM

Florida Derby (Grade I)

Purse - $1,000,000

Distance – 1 1/8^th Mile

Surface – Dirt

1 - State of Honor

2 - Talk Logistics

3 - Charlie the Greek

4 - Always Dreaming

5 - Quinientos

6 - Coleman Rocky

7 - Unbridled Holiday

8- Impressive Edge

9- Battalion Runner

10 - Three Rules

11 - Gunnevera

                  

This year the first Saturday in April features two great Derbies – the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby! Both feature strong contenders for the Kentucky Derby / Triple Crown – however I’m going to focus on the Florida Derby because of #11 Gunnevera.

Gunnevera - the Horse we could all be talking about come Kentucky Derby Time

When last we saw Gunnevera he was long striding his way from the rest of the field in a commanding Fountain of Youth Stakes victory here at Gulfstream Park.

In contention with him were also #10 Three Rules (finished 3^rd), #2 Talk Logistics (finished 4^th), and #5 Quinientos who finished 6^th.

See Race Below:

I believe Gunnevera will likely win again here at the Florida Derby – however the odds makers have caught my attention – so let’s take a look at the other horses.

#1 State of Honor – Very solid horse, he will likely take the lead in this race – especially if he breaks well from the Gate. State of Honor recently finished 2^nd in the Tampa Bay Derby, and unfortunately faded as they came out of the final turn. I think there’s a very good chance State of Honor could finish in the top 3 – but I believe Gunnevera would have to have an off day for State of Honor to win.

#3 Charlie the Greek – is going off at 50-1 – he’s won 2 races in 12 attempts, and finished his last race 4^th against lesser competition. If I could talk to the owners I’d tell them -  

GYROutta Your League!!

 (you have to say it out loud)

GYROutta Your League!!

……huh...huh?????

(I know it's awful).

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
is unhappy about the horrible pun.
But more unhappy that he's not
eating Dolmades, Hummas,
Souvlaki and Baklava!!

Moving on from the bad pun -- #4 Always Dreaming is one of the horses that the odds makers have piqued my interest in.  He’s currently going off at 4-1 – he’s the third favorite in this race – his career record is 2 Wins in 4 Attempts – and his last victory was at this distance 1 and 1/8 mile.

And I usually trust the “locals” to have insight on a race like this – however the horse Always Dreaming recently defeated was Charlie the Greek (2^nd) -- (you know the 50-1 horse). I wouldn’t be surprised if Always Dreaming drops to the 5^th or 6^th favorite come race time – either that or I believe he’ll be overbet.

#6 Coleman Rocky – has 1 win in 5 races, he’s going off at 30-1. Wouldn’t surprise me if this horse looked sharp for about a mile and then dropped off.

#7 Unbridled Holiday – has 1 win in 7 races, he’s also going off at 30-1 – he’ll likely run in the middle of the pack, but I doubt he has enough to out run these horses at the end of the race.

#8 Impressive Edge is currently sitting at 12-1, and he recently picked up a victory in an Allowance Outing. He has 2 Wins in 5 Attempts……I’d really like to “like” this horse more – but either he’d have to blossom in this race or everyone else would have to really come out flat for me to believe he can win this one. He feels like bad bettors bait here.

#9 Battalion Runner – First of all, very cool name – he’s currently going off as the Second Favorite (3/1) in this race – he won his most recent outing and he has 2 victories in 3 attempts –

Now for the bad news – Battalion Runner hasn’t raced in 57 days - so I think he could come out a bit rusty. And this is an unfortunate Post Position for him, because I suspect Battalion Runner will want to compete for the early lead – and with 8 horses between him and the rail it could be a very difficult, energy expending, trip for him in first half mile.

#10 Three Rules – is currently sitting at 8/1 and finished third behind Gunnevera in the Fountain of Youth. 

Keep an eye out for the odds on this horse, because I think he’s underbet here. I think he should at least be the third favorite in this one – and while I don’t think he can beat Gunnevera (if Gunnevera is sharp) – I DO think he has a chance of beating everyone else in this race.

How I see the Race:

State Of Honor will look to grab the rail, dictate the early pace and hope (that because he’s taken the shortest trip, against the rail) that everyone in this race is exhausted in the final furlongs and he can steal the race – meanwhile Battalion Runner will hope to make a quick break and stalk State Of Honor and as they come out of the final turn – Battalion Runner will hit the jets, pass up State of Honor and hope that Gunnevera fades, hits traffic behind him or comes out flat.

Gunnevera will likely hang back – patiently let all of the front runners find their spacing, and when the moment is right – Gunnevera will be asked for his full throttle and we’ll see if he’s got it.

I’m guessing he does….and we’ll be talking about his Kentucky Derby odds soon.

Closing Speed likes:  Gunnevera / Battalion Runner / Three Rules

Louisiana Derby –

The Louisiana Derby is primarily a rematch from the Risen Star Stakes  and as you’ll see the Favorite Girvin found himself in the Winner’s Circle (see below)

  

I like Girvin to repeat here –

If I were betting $6 I would go with –

$1 Exacta – Girvin with Patch, Senior Investment and Monaco

And then also the reverse

$1 Exacta – Patch, Senior Investment and Monaco with Girvin. 

Girvin

San Felipe Stakes 2017

Santa Anita

March 11, 2017

Race 5  - 2:04 PM

San Felipe Stakes (Grade II)

Purse – 400,000

Distance - One And One Sixteenth Miles

Surface – Dirt

1 – Term of Art

2 – Vending Machine

3 – Ann Arbor Eddie

4 – Mastery

5 – Gormley

6 – Iliad

7 – Bluegrass Envy

There are two solid Kentucky Derby Prep races this weekend – the first is The Tampa Bay Derby – but in my opinion the only horse that will likely be a threat to contend in a Triple Crown Run would be #5 Tapwrit – he enters the Tampa Bay Derby as the favorite and I think he’ll likely chalk up a win in this one…..

However in the last few races I’ve written about – Upsets have been the norm. This could be a year where some horses develop late and it could be a very difficult season to predict!

Now let’s take a look at the San Felipe Stakes which I believe will be a VERY competitive race.

#1 Term of Art – recently finished 4^th in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes here at Santa Anita,  he’s a career 2 for 7 and he’s going off at 20-1....I’m not a fan.

#2 Vending Machine – has 3 wins in 8 lifetime attempts – he recently won (on Turf) here at Santa Anita 49 days ago – he’s also going off at 20/1  -- and he’s worth a look if you like the longshots. What I like about this horse is that he showed a lot of poise in his last race….but I don’t think he has enough talent to take on this group.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
loves candy....
but would be concerned if
this Vending Machine
had any "pop" out.

#3 Ann Arbor Eddie – is going off at 8/1 – and has enjoyed 3 wins in 5 Attempts – he was the FAVORITE in his last race the El Camino Real and finished 2^nd --- (although due to interference was pushed back to a 4^th place finish). – Ann Arbor Eddie will likely look to control the pace at the lead and hug the rail in this one....but he’ll need help to win.

#4 Mastery – last time we saw this horse he was pulling away with a 5 length win in the Cash Call Futurity in Los Alamitos. This horse is Undefeated in 3 lifetime attempts….however it’s also been 91 days since he raced last. He may be the best horse in this one…..but he may not be the best prepared – this could be another race where the favorite looks rusty…..and falls flat.

#5 Gormley – currently going off at 9/5, Gormely is the second favorite in this race.  His career record is 3 wins in 4 attempts …. and he barely squeaked out a victory in the Sham Stakes 63 days ago here at Santa Anita.

Sham Stakes:

I’m certainly impressed with both Gormley and American Anthem  -- they both show great early speed and they both show a LOT of fighting spirit…..certainly two horses to keep an eye on….from what I’m reading it’s likely we’ll see American Anthem in the Rebel Stakes on Mar. 18^th.

#6 Iliad – is currently the third favorite in this race going off at 5/2 – he has 2 victories in 3 attempts and unlike Gormely and Mastery, he has raced recently -- putting up a victory in the San Vicente (here at Santa Anita) 27 days ago.

As you watch the video – here are some things I’d like to point out – Iliad is a BEAST – he looks much larger than the other horses when he reels around the 2^nd turn, and he's probably still growing! He also has no problems keeping up with a “hot” early pace (21 seconds) and then finishing with ease…….

Also I’d like to add – kudos to ownership for naming him Iliad…..Classical, Mythical…even Horse Related…..I mean who names their prize horses Gormley and Vending Machine??

**Well Gormley at least is a Sculptor...but Vending Machine??

Finally #7 Bluegrass Envy – comes in as the “Super” longshot 50-1….despite excellent bloodlines (Any Given Saturday) and a much better name than Gormley and Vending Machine…..what he doesn’t have is a win….in 5 attempts. He last raced 42 days ago finishing 6^th. Young horses like these can surprise, but I think the talent is too deep for him to compete.

To me the interesting thing about this upcoming race will be how the horses deal with the early pace – will Gormley and Iliad go full out in the first half mile and not have anything left for the last few furlongs – if that were to happen I think this would help both Vending Machine and Mastery.

However if the pace is more modest (late 23’s) than I think we could see a nail biter between Iliad and Gormley with Mastery closing in at the end.

Closing Speed likes:  Iliad / Gormley / Mastery

If I’m betting $24 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box:  2/3/5/6  = $24

*It’s a pricy bet…but if a long shot pulls off an upset , it could be a solid ticket.

Fountain Of Youth Stakes

Gulfstream park  - March 4, 2017

Race 13

Fountain of Youth (Grade II)

Purse - 400,000

Distance - One And One Sixteenth Miles

Surface – Dirt

1 –  Hurican Americo 2 – Gunnevera                  3 – Quiinientos 4 – Talk Logistics                                               5 – Beasley                                         6 – Practical Joke                                                                         7 – Three Rules 8 – Irish War Cry 9 –  Made You Look 10 – Takaful 11 – Lookin for Eight

                                                               

There are two races on March 4^th that can help horses punch their ticket to the Kentucky Derby – the first is the Gotham in New York – and after reviewing that race I believe the heavy favorite El Areeb, the stunning grey colt – should find himself in the Winner’s Circle.

(El Areeb -- Means The Wise or The Intelligent)

The more interesting race should be the Fountain of Youth  which, for a few of these horses, will be a rematch of the Holy Bull stakes  -- that took place here at Gulfstream Park in February.

The winner of the Holy Bull Stakes was #8 Irish War Cry who is undefeated in three career races – #2 Gunnevera finished 2^nd (3 wins /  7 races) and #4 Talk Logistics finished 4^th (1 win / 4 races).

Irish War Cry broke out into the lead comfortably and never looked back – he has a powerful finish and deserves to be the favorite in this race.

See Holy Bull Stakes:

However there are three horses that could challenge the Favorite –

#6 Practical Joke – Personally I think this horse is over hyped coming into this race – his odds are 3-1 (making him the 2^nd favorite) and he hasn’t raced in 119 days – which was a third place showing in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. That said he has won 3 out of 4 races in his career – I don’t like a young horse coming off this big of a layoff but……they like him locally, and it’s wise to listen to the locals.

#9 Made You Look – Is currently sitting at 10-1 – and I’m definitely looking! Made You Look showed a lot of patience in his last race before turning on the jets in the final furlong to win by a few lengths – this horse has a “primo” starting spot to stalk Irish War Cry and when they come out of the turn – I think Made You Look may have enough fight to pull off an upset – the question is if he can keep up to begin with. He only has 3 wins in 6 attempts – but I like this horse.

#11 Lookin For Eight – Crushed his opponents in his last outing (a 7 furlong race) here at Gulfstream --  Lookin for Eight will also likely look to contend with Irish War Cry for the early lead – again the question is who will have the lead as they enter the final turn?  Lookin for Eight has 1 win in 2 races…..and he’s currently going off at 20-1…….I like those odds a lot – especially for a horse sired by Former Preakness Winner Lookin for Lucky.

Two horses I’m concerned about are - #7 Three Rules  and #5 Beasley.

Three Rules faded at the end of a 7 furlong race, and I just don’t see him contending in this one at all…..but I’m looking at his overall record of 5 wins in 7 races – and I’m concerned he may have just been flat in his most recent outing…..we’ll find out soon. His odds are at 12/1.

Beasley – Was Sired by Shackleford and has only 1 win in 3 races – and he most recently finished 2^nd in an allowance race --- however his odds are currently 6/1….which is clearly much better than Made You Look and Lookin for Eight? Somebody’s wrong....and I really hope it isn't Me....again!

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
hears the name
Irish War Cry
and is ready to drink
Jameson Whiskey
and listen to U2!

I’m throwing out –

50/1 - Hurican Americo  (1 win / 2 races)

50/1 – Quiinientos (1 win / 8 races)

Irish War Cry is the son of one of my all-time favorite horses Curlin….and it’s difficult to bet against against an “Irish” horse this close to St. Patrick’s Day and that is absolutely terrible reasoning for handicapping horses.....however -- 

Closing Speed likes:  Irish War Cry / Made You Look / Gunnevera             

If I’m betting $12 on this race I like:

$1 Exacta Box – 8,9,11

$ Exacta Box – 3,8,9

Risen Star Stakes 2017

Risen Star Stakes

Fair Grounds Race Course

Post Time: 5:00 PM CT

Distance: 1 1/16 m (Dirt)

1 –  Girvin 2 – Untrapped                                                   3 – Local Hero    4 –  Arklow                                                          5 –  Shareholder Value                                  6 – Guest Suite                                                 7 – US Officer 8 –  Cool Arrow 9 –  Mo Town 10 – Takeoff 11 – Sorry Erik 12 – Horse Fly 13 – It’s Your Nickel 14 – So Conflated

                                                               

Full Disclosure --- I think this race is completely up for grabs. I do believe there are a few “throw away” picks here……but, not as many as any bettor might like -- I would not be surprised to see a mild upset here....or a relative long shot pull off a victory!

Let’s begin with the favorites.

#1 Girvin – is going off at 6-1 – I see this horse as being closer to 8-1 or 10-1  -- he has 1 victory in 2 races, at this point I believe his odds (and hopes) are based on his Sire Tale of Ekati – very good horse in his day, but “he’s” not running today.

#3 Local Hero – has 1 victory in 3 races – in two of those races he finished second – and his lone victory was his last race here at the Fairgrounds. Local Hero has a great starting spot – and he’s very comfortable taking an early lead and not letting up. Currently he’s going off as the second favorite, that could change (in many ways) before the bell. His sire was Hard Spun – and this horse looks like a contender.

#6 Guest Suite – has won 3 out of 5 races --  He most recently won the LeComte Stakes here at the Fairgrounds with an impressive run in the mud  -- very solid choice here.

** However #2 Untrapped finished 2^nd in the LeComte and Untrapped was gaining ground on the leader as they hit the wire…..at 10-1 odds he could surprise -- also HorseRacingNation has him ranked higher than Guest Suite.

Rounding out the Lecomte were the following horses:

#10 Takeoff (3^rd), #4 Arklow (4^th), #5 Shareholder Value (5^th).

The favorite is #9 Mo Town – he has won 2 out of 3 career races – and his last victory at the Remsen Stakes is definitely worth a view:

As you can see Mo Town finishes strongly -- However I am not crazy about the 91 days he’s had off since his last race, or that he’s switching tracks. 

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
can't help but sing
along to Motown's
Sugar Pie, Honey Bunch!!!

It would not surprise me if he needs this race to shake off some rust, also would not surprise me if he doesn’t take to the track – could be a big disappointment.

**Also can we PLEASE stop celebrating his sire Uncle Mo – he had a terrible name, and was a relatively disappointing 3 year old horse – I don’t care how well he breeds!

Also in the mix is #8 Cool Arrow – (sounds like a bad Marvel Super Hero, or a nickname that Cupid is hoping will pick up steam) – Cool Arrow has 3 victories in 6 attempts – he also has the most earnings of any of these horses $282K. He recently picked up a win over #7 US Officer in the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes – at 15-1 this horse has my attention.

However both Cool Arrow and US Officer are coming off of a 76 day layoff.

You know.....maybe you call me Cool Arrow???

Meanwhile rounding out the bunch are the Longshots….however these odds have me interested.

#11 Sorry Erik – 30-1 odds --- 3 wins in 8 attempts – that’s a lot of experience for a horse this age. And he’s fresh off of a victory.

#12 Horse Fly – 30-1 odds – 1 victory in 6 attempts – Also fresh off of a victory.

#13 It’s your Nickel – 30-1 odds – 2 victories in 3 attempts – Fresh off of a victory

#14 So Conflated – 10-1 odds – 2 victories in 3 attempts and winner of the California Derby  – Fresh off of a victory.

All of these “longshots” have raced in the last 20 to 35 days -- and at this age, that kind of consistency can help.  

My picks and my betting strategy would be completely different in this one.

Closing Speed likes: Local Hero, Untrapped, Mo Town

If I’m betting $10 on this race I like:

$1 Exacta - 3/9 with 2/6/8/11/14

Preakness Stakes 2016

Pimlico  - May 21, 2016

Race 13 - 6:45 PM

Preakness Stakes.   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,500,000

Distance - One And Three Sixteenth Miles

Surface – Dirt

1 –  Cherry Wine 2 – Uncle Lino                                                    3 – Nyquist         4 – Awesome Speed                                                      5 – Exaggerator                                                 6 – Lani                                                                 7 – Collected 8 – Laoban 9 –  Abiding Star 10 – Fellowship 11 - Stradivari

                                                               

For anyone who missed #3 Nyquist victory in the Kentucky Derby see the video below.

Two things that caught my attention during the race -- 

This is the second straight race that Nyquist has gone VERY wide on the final turn, I believe this may be one of the only weak spots this horse has in his racing style at this time --- I’m sure his trainers are working on it – however his wide sweeps could make him vulnerable…..that is if there was a horse equal to his talents – and so far there hasn’t been.

Also you’ll notice that #5 Exaggerator really struggles to work through the wall of horses coming out of the final turn and does an admiral job of closing on Nyquist in the final furlong. 

Perhaps with less horses and a distance greater than a mile and 1/8 ….. Exaggerator may have enough space and distance to steal one from Nyquist.

Kentucky Derby:

Most experts consider the Preakness a two horse race – you either like Nyquist to keep on winning, at a distance he should be able to handle easily – or you’re hoping Exaggerator will be able to pull off an upset.

The Preakness, in my opinion, is Nyquist’s race to lose…Nyquist is undefeated in 8 races --- and in those 8 races he has defeated Exaggerator (the second favorite in this race) 4 times.

Overall there is less talent, fewer horses, and less distance in the Preakness compared to the Kentucky Derby -- this race is offering every advantage to Nyquist.....and he really doesn't need it.

The second favorite is #5 Exaggerator who has 4 victories in 10 races --- if Nyquist didn’t exist, he would likely have 6 victories in 10 races.

An interesting side note in this year’s Preakness is that Nyquist shares the same sire (Uncle Mo) with #2 Uncle Lino, #8 Laoban, and #9 Abiding Star.

Here’s a review of the rest of the field.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
can't help but start humming
Spill the Wine by War
when he sees Cherry Wine.

 #1 Cherry Wine – has 2 wins in 8 attempts and has a tendency to fall back early and close late. His last race was a 3^rd place finish 42 days ago in the Blue Grass Stakes.

#2 Uncle Lino – 2 wins in 7 races – his last race was a victory in the California Chrome Stakes in Los Alamitos – and he finished 3^rd (behind Exaggerator) in the Santa Anita Derby.

#4 Awesome Speed – has won 4 out of 6 races – and is coming off a recent victory 42 days ago.

#6 Lani – has 3 victories in 7 attempts – however one of his victories was the very impressive UAE Derby  -- Lani showcased a great closing stride in the UAE Derby – however word on the track is that Lani is….eccentric -- or just crazy! Below is a portion of an article from Yahoo.

Looney Lani -- Keeping the Preakness Weird

Lani isn't going to start delivering Pizza in Adult Films...
is he???

Looney Lani earned a reputation at Churchill Downs in the run-up to the Derby by being, shall we say, overly excited when he took to the track for morning workouts. The Churchill notes crew employed the euphemism "studdish," since he certainly appeared more interested in breeding than breezing on several mornings. Some publicity photos were even photoshopped to remove the protruding evidence of Lani's ardor.

Then there were the days before the Derby when Lani didn't feel like running. His exercise rider could not coax a gallop out of him on the day of his last major workout, and the move was postponed. Nobody seemed quite sure what he was going to do on any given morning.

#7 Collected – has 4 victories in 6 attempts – with his last race being a victory in the Lexington Stakes.  Collected will likely try to stalk Nyquist in the first turn and go stride for stride with him from there.

#8 Laoban – has never won a race in 5 outings…….he did finish 4^th in the Blue Grass Stakes

#9 Abiding Star – has 5 victories in 11 races – and recently won the 2016 Parx Derby (in Philadelphia).

#10 Fellowship – has 2 wins in 12 races – with a recent 4^th place finish in the Pat Day Mile

#11 Stradavari – has 2 wins in 3 races – with a recent Allowance Race victory.

Stradavari is currently the 3^rd favorite in this race and there is some “buzz” around this horse – but I don’t think he’s ready for this kind of talent -- granted he may really only be competing for 3rd place (the Show).

Here is how I see the race playing out –

Cherry Wine will gladly fall back – I'm looking for Cherry Wine to stay on the inside and close strongly coming out of the final turn. If he got VERY LUCKY -- and Nyquist goes FAR WIDE in the last turn -- Cherry Wine may be in a position to stay close the the rail and steal one from both Nyquist and Exaggerator......lot of things need to happen for Cherry Wine though.

Uncle Lino will hope to keep up with Nyquist and prevent Nyquist from grabbing the rail……he may succeed….however Nyquist may bolt to the lead and cut Uncle Lino off before the first turn, leaving Uncle Lino boxed in.

There are two very interesting questions that will be answered in the first quarter mile – will Exaggerator attempt to run at the top of the pack and keep pace with Nyquist……and if he does --- what kind of pace will Nyquist set.

A great example of this is the San Vicente Stakes – granted this is only a 7 furlong race, but you’ll notice Nyquist runs a 22.5 ¼ mile…..and Exaggerator is right there with him.

San Vicente:

Exaggerator may also be looking to fall back to the middle of the pack in hopes that some of the other horses push Nyquist to a blazing early pace ….. and that Nyquist will be too spent to finish strongly and Exaggerator can fly by in the final furlong to steal a victory.

The problem for Exaggerator is that the strategy of “hoping Nyquist is spent” hasn’t worked yet……despite dangerous early speed, Nyquist (so far) has had plenty of endurance to finish races.

The other problem for Exaggerator is running at the front isn’t really what he does best…..so he’d be changing his own style in hopes of beating Nyquist at Nyquist’s own game……also NOT a successful strategy…..this of course is why Exaggerator is 0 for 4 against Nyquist.

***If Exaggerator decides to hang back in the middle of the pack and set himself up on the inside coming out of the final turn AND Nyquist sweeps wide or is pushed Wide in the final turn -- Exaggerator may be able to steal one on the inside -- I think it's possible, but unlikely.

Collected I believe will stalk Nyquist – Awesome Speed may also work to be in the top 4 horses.

Once they hit the final turn I believe Awesome Speed and Uncle Lino will fade -- Collected may be able to hang in there for a third place finish.

Closing Speed likes:  Nyquist / Exaggerator / Cherry Wine

I was given some betting advice many years ago that has served me well -- if you believe it's really only a two horse race -- split the favorites with a long shot --- it is rare that the race will favor both horses......so it's good to put a long shot in the middle.

OR

If you're very confident that the favorite is going to win (and there isn't much money in it for you) the other way to go is to bet a Pick 3 / Pick 4 and have your "Sure Thing" anchor the Picks......I'm going with the latter advice.

If I’m betting $24  I like:

A pick 3 starting:

Race 11: 3/6/7/9

Race 12: 7/9/11/12

Race 13; 3

And two long shot $1 Exactas:

1,6,7,11 with 3 = $4

3 with 1,6,7,11 = $4

Kentucky Derby 2016

Churchhill Downs – May 7, 2016

Race 12 - 6:34 PM

Kentucky Derby (Grade I)

Purse - $2,000,000

Distance - One And One Quarter Miles

Surface - Dirt

1 –  Trojan Nation 2 – Suddenbreakingnews 3 – Creator                          4 – Mo Tom                                                        5 – Gun Runner 6 - My Man Sam 7 – Oscar Nominated 8 – Lani 9 –  Destin 10 – Whitmore

11 – Exaggerator 12 – Tom’s Ready 13 – Nyquist 14 – Mohaymen 15 – Outwork 16 – Shagaf 17 – Mor Spirit 18 – Majesto 19 – Brody’s Cause 20 – Danzig Candy

                                                               

From what I’m seeing the 2016 Kentucky Derby is split into two groups – the first group believes that #13 Nyquist is a far superior horse to the rest of the field and this is “his” race to lose.

Why do haters gotta hate??

The second group might fall in the “haters gotta hate” group – that’s just looking for any way the heavy favorite could fail or because they’re hoping to make some money on a longshot.

Full disclosure (as a fan) I’m in the first group – Nyquist has been nothing short of amazing in his undefeated 7 race career. He’s won on four different tracks, in three different states.  He fearlessly was transferred to Florida to take on (perhaps) the second best horse in the nation #14 Mohaymen – on Mohaymen’s “home court” – defeating all in the Florida Derby.

Florida Derby:

(also featuring #14Mohaymen and  #18 Majesto)

Nyquist has all of the trademarks that make up a “GREAT” Kentucky Derby favorite – he possesses enough early speed that he can separate from a field of 12 to 19 horses and set his own early pace.

My “fear” for Nyquist is that while he has shown racing maturity he “could” fall for an early speed trap and burn himself out too early……but again, he’s shown maturity so far.

Nyquist also appears comfortable with longer distances and able to sustain enough endurance so that he doesn’t fade in the final furlongs.

In the Florida Derby you’ll notice he does go VERY wide in the final turn and he does waver in the final furlongs – which does indicate some fatigue – but, in my opinion, the undefeated Juvenile Champion looks like a fighter and I think once he hits the final stretch and builds two or three lengths on the other horses….it’s OVER.

However, for those looking for a surprise victory, there are a few interesting horses.

#3 Creator (currently going off at 10/1) is a story of Good News / Bad News – the Bad News is that this horse has only won 2 races out of 8 – however he won his last race The Arkansas Derby and Creator seems poised to be a bigger threat at longer distances – so additional good news is that this horse could be just getting into races he’s comfortable with.

As you watch the Arkansas Derby you’ll see that the Big Grey Colt likes to hang WAAAAAYYY back until he makes his final push…..it’s also interesting to see that both Creator and Suddenbreakingnews seem to be finding their stride late in the race......

Arkansas Derby:

(also featuring #2 Suddenbreakingnews & #10 Whitmore)

#5 Gun Runner – Winner of both the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star Stakes) has won 4 out of 5 career races.

*If Gun Runner can break from the gate well and take the rail – he could challenge Nyquist early – I think Gun Runner has a shot to land in the top three with some luck.

There’s also a chance that he could get swallowed in a swarm of horses and never have a chance to break out.

Louisiana Derby

(also featuring #4 Mo Tom & #12 Tom’s Ready)

#11 Exaggerator – was the winner of the Santa Anita Derby, and has 4 career victories in 9 attempts (one of his losses was against Nyquist in February). Exaggerator was sired by one of my favorites (Curlin) and he possesses a great late kick --- and I love that he’s comfortable in traffic – I don’t love him at 8/1 – I’d be more interested at 12/1 or higher.

Santa Anita Derby

(also featuring #17 Mor Spirit and #20 Danzig Candy)

 #15 Outwork has won 3 of his 4 career races – including the Wood Memorial --- his one loss was against #9 Destin in the Tampa Bay Derby.

I like Outwork but I think he received a tough luck post position – I believe he needed to be on the inside of Nyquist to have a solid shot and I don’t think this horse is going to be able to overtake Nyquist early or have a better late kick than some of the other horses – tough draw.

#9 Destin is a bit of a mystery – he hasn’t raced in 56 days – he’s won his last two stakes races – and I love his starting spot……but I HATE the long layoff and the fact that he hasn’t really competed against top talent. But a VERY intriguing longshot.

Wood Memorial

(also featuring #1 Trojan Nation and #16 Shagaf)

To round out the field –

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
wonders why they didn't name
the horse Oscar Winner?
I mean....they had a choice.

#7 Oscar Nominated – has won his last two races (including the Spiral Stakes) and has won a total of 3 out of 7 career attempts.  I like his starting spot…..but he strikes me as a horse that’s just happy to be there – I believe he’ll be overwhelmed by the level of talent in this one.

#8 Lani – I’m always VERY interested when the UAE Derby winner comes out of the Middle East to race in the Kentucky Derby – This horse has won in Japan and the Dubai – it appears to me that this horse likes to run in the middle of the pack – and closes out very smoothly.  That being said – while this horse has a premium post position - he hasn’t raced in 42 days and he’s dealing with a very difficult traveling transition.  Full disclosure – I always think the UAE Derby winner will surprise….and the only one that’s surprised is me when they finish so poorly.

#19 Brody’s Cause – he’s another quality horse that will strike very late in a race. He has won 3 out of 6 career races and if he can find a lane coming out of the final turn, he could certainly be an upset contender --- but only if Nyquist is fatigued.

#6 My Man Sam – finished 2^nd to Brody’s Cause in the recent Blue Grass Stakes – but My Man Sam was driving in the final furlongs.  He’s got only 1 victory in 4 attempts….but he looks like he likes the distance…..I don’t love him at 20/1…..but if he hits 30/1 or higher…..he’s interesting.

Here’s how I see the race breaking down –

#1 Trojan Nation likely gets swallowed up in less than one full second from a collapsing dune of horses and is likely never heard from again – meanwhile on the opposite side #20 Danzig Candy will have to make a very difficult decision – either Danzig Candy will burst out and hit the pace at a suicide level in hopes of grabbing a top spot and somehow sustaining it……or come out of the gate weakly and look to find a spot in the top half of the pack – either way I think Danzig Candy will have a very difficult time making this post work for him.

I believe Brody’s Cause, Suddenbreakingnews, Exaggerator and Creator will ALL fall back to the back of the pack – Creator will likely be the furthest back….and Exaggerator may work his way closer to middle of the pack.

Gun Runner could get swallowed up early – but I think he could make the first turn and be the early leader – I suspect he’ll be joined by Nyquist, Mohaymen and Outwork. Destin could also be there.

If Nyquist is pushing an early quarter at 21 or 22 seconds he could be in trouble – however if Nyquist has a clear path in front of him and he’s running a 23.5 second quarter --- I think EVERYBODY else is in trouble.

Nyquist may have to fight off getting boxed in by the other horses – in what I consider poor sportsmanship – sometimes the other jockeys will try to box the favorite in…..doesn’t translate into their horses winning as much as it does the favorite losing.

Coming into the final turn I believe Outwork and Mohaymen will likely begin to fade…..they may have run 5 or 6 wide the entire race and it will have been too much to maintain. 

We’ll see if Gun Runner is able to challenge.

Midway in the final turn I suspect we’ll begin hearing that Brody’s Cause, My Man Sam, Suddenbreakingnews, Exaggerator  and Creator are making their late pushes….IF one of these horses can find an open lane close to the rail or the inside track of Nyquist – I think any of these horses have a shot at an upset over Nyquist.

However if a lane through that wall of horses doesn’t open up early enough or if the late closing horses are forced AROUND the wall of horses (i.e. to the far outside)  – and Nyquist has built up a lead and still has enough strength to finish – I suspect Nyquist will be on his way to the Winner’s Circle.

Closing Speed likes: Nyquist / Exaggerator / Brody's Cause

If I’m betting $38 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box: 11,13, 19 = $6

$1 Exacta: 5,7,8,9 w 13 = $4

$1 Exacta: 13 w 5,7,8,9 = $4

(Or just $2 -  5,7,8,9 to win = $8)

$1 Exacta Box: 2,,3,11,13 = $24

Arkansas Derby 2016

ARKANSAS DERBY   (GRADE I)

Purse - $1,000,000

Distance - One And One Eighth Miles

Surface - Dirt

1 –  Discreetness 2 –  Cutacorner                                 3 –  Creator                                         4 – Suddenbreakingnews                                             5 – American Pioneer                                                     6 – Unbridled Outlaw                                                     7 – Dazzling Gem 8 – Whitmore 9 –  Luna De Loco 10 –  Cupid 11 – Gray Sky 12 - Gettysburg

                                                               

For the most part, the Arkansas Derby is a rematch of the Rebel Stakes in March – and in my opinion it’s likely that the Arkansas Derby will also be a replay of the Rebel Stakes.

In the Rebel, #10 Cupid went wire to wire to the Winner’s Circle holding off #8 Whitmore and a late charging #3 Creator.  

The remainder of the field included #1 Discreetness, #2 Cutacorner, #4 Suddenbreakingnews, and #11 Gray Sky.

As you watch the race – one item of note happens at the 1:28 mark – you’ll see Cupid have an awkward step near (or into) the rail  – the announcer doesn’t acknowledge it – but I believe Cupid would have finished much stronger had he come out of the final turn smoother.

The Rebel Stakes:

 To round out the field we have:

#5 American Pioneer  (NOT a close relation to Arkansas Derby Champion and Triple Crown Champion American Pharoah) – American Pioneer has 1 win in two races and has never contended against this kind of competition – I don’t like his inexperience here and I really don’t like his 8/1 odds – I’d think about it, if this horse were closer to 30-1.

#6 Unbridled Outlaw – he has 1 victory in 5 attempts – and finished 2^nd in his most recent outing – at 10/1 I’m not a fan.

#7 Dazzling Gem finished 3^rd in the Louisiana Derby and is back at the track after only 21 days off –  I believe Dazzling Gem is worth a look in this race – in the Louisiana Derby he was fading in his 3^rd place finish – but it wasn’t the best trip for him and he’s the only horse with experience at this distance.

Dazzling Gem is well positioned to work his way into the middle of the pack --- and then we’ll see if he can finish stronger this time out. I don’t like him to win – but at 10/1 odds I like him to finish better than American Pioneer and Unbridled Outlaw.

#9 Luna De Loco – finished 13^th (in a 14 horse race) in the Southwest Stakes – this horse tapped out around the ½ mile marker of his last race and hasn’t raced in 35 days  – perhaps the horse had a minor injury to get over or just needed more training – he’s had two victories out of four races – but I just haven’t seen anything to make me believe he can contend in the Ark. Derby.

And finally #12 Gettysburg finished 2^nd at Sunland in his last race and has a career record of 1 win in 5 races – I don’t love him at 6/1.

The Arkansas Derby is (in my opinion) Cupid’s race to lose – HOWEVER starting in the 10^th spot, the added distance and this quality field could test his abilities.

However Cupid does have a great song....and that should count for something....Ladies and Gentlemen Mr. Sam Cooke!!

Alright.....back to racing.....#3 Creator and #4 Suddenbreakingnews will likely drop to the back of the pack and cruise along there for the first ½ mile or so -- I'll be looking for both of these horses to make a strong late charge at the end of the race.

I’ll be very curious to see what #8 Whitmore will do with his inside position of Cupid.

Cupid will likely want to take the lead and set the pace – the question is - can (or will) Whitmore attempt to keep up the early pace with Cupid in hopes of coming out of the final turn with a better position than Cupid?

Or will Whitmore let Cupid fly by and position himself in the middle of the pack – hoping to finish stronger than his last outing?

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah likes
the idea of Cupid but is NOT
a fan of getting shot with his
arrow.

All things being equal – Cupid is the horse to beat in this race – but with the added distance in this race and a less than optimal post position --- Cupid will have to earn this one.

I think Dazzling Gem (12/1) is a legit long shot possibility.

I’m looking for Suddenbreakingnews to rebound from a mediocre Rebel Stakes – but I think Creator is being overlooked at 10/1.

Closing Speed likes:  Cupid/ Creator and Suddenbreakingnews.

If I’m betting $10 on this race I like:

$1 Exacta Box: 3,4,10 = $6

$2 Win – #3 Creator

$2 Win – #7 Dazzling Gem