San Felipe Stakes 2015

San Felipe Stakes (Grade II)
Purse $400,000
Distance 1 1/16 miles

Lord Nelson
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Dortmund
The Gomper
Kenjisstorm
Prospect Park
Bolo
Pulmarack
Sir Sampson
Pain and Misery

#3 Dortmund enters this race as an undefeated (4 for 4) morning line 8/5 favorite -- below is the video of his last thrilling victory (by a nose). in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

Dortmund is a deserving 8/5 favorite - however in his last two races he was really pushed by Firing Line, (who is looking for any race that doesn't involve Dortmund right now) -- the Robert B. Lewis Stakes also didn't have many horses racing....these are very mild concerns -- it is likely Dortmund will be the early leader and finish this race uncontested.

However #1 Lord Nelson,  #2 Ocho Ocho Ocho and #6 Prospect Park may prove to be worthy challengers ---

Lord Nelson has won 3 of 5 races including his last outing The San Vicente Stakes, here at Santa Anita.

I kind of miss Ocho Cinco

Ocho Ocho Ocho has been out of racing for over 100 days -- but his last race was a solid victory in the Delta Jackpot.

And finally Prospect Park ran with a lot of patience and confidence (a victory over #4 The Gomper) in an allowance race in late January.

I would love to offer up a big upset here but -- I think Dortmund will run away with this one. I think Prospect Park could surprise -- but at 4/1 odds that isn't much of a game changer.

Closing Speed likes: Dortmund, Prospect Park and Lord Nelson

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah thinks
Closing Speed should choose
Pain & Misery -- because
that's what his betting advice
usually is.

Tampa Bay Derby 2015

Tampa Bay Derby
Date/Track: 3/7/15 - Tampa Bay Downs
Post Time: 5:23 pm EST
Distance:  1 1/16 (Dirt)

Diving Rod
Ocean Knight
Carpe Diem
Ami's Flatter
My Johnny Be Good
Souper Colossal
Great Stuff
Moonlight Bandit
Danzig Moon

For #1 Diving Rod, #2 Ocean Knight, #4 Ami's Flatter and #5 My Johnny Be Good this will be a rematch of the Sam F. Davis Stakes - see video below:

The morning line of this race has Ocean Knight going off at 2/1 odds and Diving Rod going off at 6/1 odds  -- which seems like a sizable gap considering Ocean Knight barely won this race with a nod of his head.

For those who have followed racing for some time - Ocean Knight was sired by 2007 Preakness Winner (and one of my favorites) Curlin -- and they have a very similar running style.

However the "prime time" morning line favorite is #3 Carpe Diem - who finished 2nd in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Carpe Diem may be the most talented horse in the field however he hasn't seized the race in over 120 days.

I certainly have my reservations about a young horse having that much time off and then making him the favorite -- so this race could be prime for an upset -- well maybe a "mild" upset.

A horse that I think is flying under the radar in this one is: #6 Souper Colossal - and his last race can be seen here:

After watching this video
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
can't get the song
"Moon River"
out of his head.

If Carpe Diem can shake off the rust and can return to his late fall stride -- he'll be very difficult to defeat in his one.

However I'm going to take a little bit of a chance and.....

Closing Speed likes: Ocean Knight, Souper Colossal, and Carpe Diem.

I like a $2 Exacta Box of Ocean Knight / Souper Colossal and Diving Rod. ($6)

I can't help but add this last video for Robin Williams:

Risen Star Stakes - 2015

Risen Star Stakes

Date/Track: 2/21/2015, Fair Grounds Race Course

Post Time: 5:24 PM ET

Distance:  1 1/16 m (Dirt)

1 – St. Joe Bay

2 – Tiznow RJ

3 – Bluff

4 – J.S. Bach

5 – Imperia

6 – War Story

7 – Hero Of Humor

8 – Keen Ice

9 – Big Big Easy

10 – International Star

For #10 International Star, #7 Hero Of Humor,  #6 War Story and #2 Tiznow RJ this will be a rematch from the LeComte Stakes (See Video):

If you pay special attention to International Star you’ll see just what an impressive victory this was – he remains very patient and very disciplined while pinned up against the rail for most of the race.

And then when he is asked he fearlessly kicks it into another gear – shoots a small lane and finally takes over the race – this is the kind of seasoned ability I haven’t seen often in three year old horses. In fact for most horses this is making the most out of a difficult trip.

**An interesting side note to International Star is that he was sired by 2000 Kentucky Derby Champion Fusaichi Pegasus – the reason that is of interest is that breeders have had difficulty breeding Fusaichi Pegasus, so it’s a little rare to see one of his progeny.....maybe some old Prince Jams would help????

International Star has reminded me how much I enjoyed
Prince's International Lover and Baby I'm a Star!

The current favorite going into the Risen Star Stakes is #5 Imperia  who last raced 84 days ago and finished 2^nd in the Jockey Club Stakes El Kabeir.

Last fall Imperia definitely looked like a promising contender – however this will be his first outing at the Fair Grounds, and I think that he will be at a disadvantage especially when facing several horses who have experience on this track.

#8 Keen Ice – was sired by one of my favorites Curlin – and I think he could surprise here….but I don’t think we’re talking winners circle. 

He had a horrible trip in the Holy Bull (finishing 6^th behind Upstart and the Gang). He got out of the gates poorly and he went for the rail and then got cut off – forcing him to pull back and he never really recovered. If he gets out of the gates well and finds his stride he could mix things up here. At 8/1 he could work in an Exacta or Trifecta.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
will NOT enjoy the irony of being
Bluffed by a horse named Bluff,
if he wins!

#3 Bluff – is a Tapit horse and Tapit horses always concern me – but outside of the breeding, I just don't see enough on the resume to become a believer.

I see similar results to the LeComte:

Closing Speed likes:  International Star / War Story / Imperia

Betting a $1 Exacta – I like International Star / Imperia and Keen Ice for ($6).

Fountain of Youth Stakes - 2015

Fountain of Youth Stakes

Date/Track: 2/21/2015, Gulfstream Park

Post Time: 5:30 PM ET

Distance: 1 1/16 m (Dirt)

1 – Juan and Bina

2 – Bluegrass Singer

3 – Frammento

4 – Gorgeous Bird

5 – Itsaknockout

6 – Frosted

7 – Upstart

8 – Danny Boy

For #1 Juan and Bina, #2 Bluegrass Singer, #3 Frammento, #6 Frosted and #7 Upstart this will be a repeat of the Holy Bull (see Video):

The 8/5 odds favorite - Upstart is considered one the early favorites for the Triple Crown – as he has won 3 out of 5 attempts and finished 3^rd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (behind Texas Red and Carpe Diem).

Even if Upstart were to come out flat --- #6 Frosted is a quality contender and I would be very surprised to see someone from the field upset both of these horses.

#5 Itsaknockout currently has 4/1 odds and is undefeated after 2 races – however this seems like a HUGE leap in competition for this horse.

The same could be said for #4 Gorgeous Bird who is currently sitting at 6/1, and has two victories in three attempts.

Outside of using Upstart in a Pick 3 or Pick 4 --- I’m not crazy about putting money on this one -- just sit back and watch some great Thoroughbreds run.

A quick glance at Gulfstream Park - here is my Pick 3 – beginning with Race 9:

$1 Pick Three: 1,3,6,7 // 1,7,9,13,15 // 7 = $20.

Southwest Stakes 2015

Southwest Stakes (Grade III)

Purse - $300,000
Distance - 1 1/16 Miles

Surface Dirt

**J.S. Bach

Far Right

Private Prospect

Bayerd

The Truth or Else

Kantune

Phenomenal Phoenix

Majestico
Bold Conquest
Mr. Z
Bold Animaux

For many of these horses this will be a rematch of the Smarty Jones Stakes (see video):

Unfortunately for  # 10 Mr. Z. - he ran without a lot of disciple or control in the Smarty Jones Stakes.

It appears to me that in the first turn he's turning his head towards the infield, which is not an optimal racing style -- nor is sweeping to the middle of the track after coming out of the the second turn.

Mr. Z -- may be the most talented horse in this field -- however he also seems to be one of the least focused animals at this point in his career -- not terribly unusual for a three year old.....but he may have a case of Arrested Development......perhaps he should have been named......

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
REALLY misses
Arrested Development

Mr. Z is the most experienced horse entering the Southwest Stakes -- and I believe at post time he could be the favorite - despite having only 1 victory in 9 outings. If Mr. Z can just hold off on making big mistakes he could be the one to watch after this race.

#2 Far Right is the current favorite - and he has enjoyed 2 wins in 7 outings -- (as you've likely already watched) - he was superb in the Smarty Jones - his timing and ability to ride the rail in the home stretch shows a maturity you look for as we approach the Triple Crown. However I'm having a hard time with only 2 wins in 7 attempts.

Currently I'm getting conflicting information about #1 J.S. Bach - I'm reading in some materials that he IS racing and in others that he will likely run next weekend in the Risen Star Stakes.

J.S. Bach is currently one out of seven of these horses to only have 1 victory going into this race -- however J.S. Bach is going off at 4/1 and could be looking to make a name for himself in this one.

This is just the kind of race that screams out a LONG SHOT to me -- Mr. Z is likely the superior horse, but seems to find new and unusual ways to lose.

If J.S. Bach runs - I like him -- but not at 4/1 odds.

If Far Right pulls off a victory here - he very well could be a contender.

But in honor or President's Day -- if I'm throwing out a couple of Washingtons or Lincolns - I like a few long shots in this one.

At 30-1 I like #7 Phenomenal Phoenix -- he hasn't matched up with this kind of competition, but I like his post position and I like his limited experience.

Also at 30-1 I like #12 Bold Animaux - same sire as Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, and he enters this one having won 3 out of 5 races. I fear he may not like the distance here, but at 30/1 he's worth a look.

And finally #9 Bold Conquest - sired by one of my favorites Curlin. 130 some days ago he finished 3rd (immediately behind Mr. Z) in the Breeders Futurity. He will likely come out rusty -- however in this field I'll might take the chance that he'll come out a rested and much better horse than he was last October.

For your betting dollar in this race I say Be BOLD, Be BACH or Be Phenomenal -

$5 - Win - Bold Conquest

$2 - Win - Bold Animaux

$2 - Win - Phenomenal Phoenix.

(If JS Bach runs - I'd likely do an exacta of JS Bach / Mr. Z and Bold Conquest - Bold Animaux and Phenomenal Phoenix -- for $5 -- but I don't think JS Bach is coming out to play.

Robert B. Lewis Stakes & Withers Stakes 2015

For a number of reasons I thought I'd skip writing about horse racing this year - my original goal, nearly 7 years ago,  was to champion a sport that (for a number of reasons) doesn't get the positive attention it deserves.

When I began writing I had really hoped by some stroke of luck I might cover a Triple Crown Winner from the his (or her) first big stakes victory to the walk off victory in the Belmont.

Move Along Nothing
to see here!

And a couple of times we came close - Big Brown, I'll Have Another and California Chrome almost did it.

And as the racing began in 2015 -- I approached it with cynicism -- in my memory the early three year old races seemed rarely competitive and also were seemingly filled with horses that were unlikely to be heard of once the "real" races began.

(Sadly) as I approached 2015 - I figured what's the point -- the populous is correct about Horse Racing there's nothing to see here....let's all just show up in May for two races and a call it a sport.

And then I saw three of the best races I've seen in a long time ---

The first race took place back in December - which was the Los Alamitos Futurity -- this features an incredible three horse finish of Mr. Z, Dortmund and Firing Line!

The rematch of two of these horses took place in Santa Anita just this past Saturday (Feb. 7) - between Dortmund and Firing Line in a rivalry rematch certainly worth watching!

For a little more insight on these rivals:

Dortmund was sired by Big Brown who won the 2008 KY Derby and Preakness - and in my opinion was the closest horse we've had in 15 years to winning the Triple Crown.

Firing Line was sired by Line of David - who was a very solid horse - winning the 2010 Arkansas Derby but failing to really compete in the Triple Crown races.

And here is the Rematch -

And finally one of the best finishes I've seen in a long time -- you'll likely need to watch this one twice.

Far from Over (so aptly named in this last outing) was sired by Blame who is the only horse to have ever defeated (fan favorite - the Queen of Racing herself) Zenyatta in the 2010 Breeders Cup Classic.

My feelings about these races and horse racing can pretty much be summed up here ---

Due to time limitations I may change how I approach my blog but you can be sure I will remain consistent in two things -- 

#1 This guy will still be apart of the blog - 

Strangely Sensitively Cheetah
does not like change....or
being at the end of the blog!

#2 My betting suggestions should still probably be ignored.

These very interesting prospects, Dortmund, Firing Line and Far From Over may have made me an offer I can't refuse.

Belmont Stakes 2014 - Triple Crown Edition

BELMONT PARK - June 07, 2014

Race 11 - 6:52 PM

Belmont S.   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,500,000

Distance - One And One Half Miles

Surface - Dirt

1 – Medal Count

2 – California Chrome

3 – Matterhorn

4 – Commanding Curve

5 – Ride On Curlin

6 – Matuszak

7 – Samraat

8 – Commissoner

9 – Wicked Strong

10 – General A Rod

11 - Tonelist

For anyone who doesn’t know, the Triple Crown in Horse Racing means a horse must win the Kentucky Derby  (in Kentucky) on the first Saturday in May, The Preakness (in Baltimore) two weeks later and then The Belmont Stakes (in New York) three weeks after that.

It is a task that involves taking on possibly 19 other horses in the first race – an unusually brief rest (by modern terms) to win the second race, and finally (after still a relatively short rest) winning the longest race they have ever run (and likely will ever run), a mile and ½ , for the final leg of the Triple Crown.

And to top it off – you can only do this during your three year old season – meaning #1 California Chrome can’t come back and try this again next year.

Now who's up for some Atari Pong?

Many GREAT horses have fallen short since 1978 when Affirmed was the last horse to win the American Triple Crown --- and today we’ll see if California Chrome can break the drought.

Since April California Chrome has performed like clock-work – his recipe for the winners circle has been to stay towards the top of the pack until then accelerate out of the final turn like he’s been shot out of a cannon.

California Chrome has glided home, unchallenged, in his last three races – in my opinion his biggest challengers today will be Fatigue from racing in four different states (California , Kentucky, Maryland and finally New York) in almost two months, and the daunting distance of this race.

His competitors are solid --- but all things being equal he has shown that he can beat all of them on a consistent basis.

To be up front – I think when it comes to the Belmont Stakes – if you take the favorite out of it – it’s always kind of a wide open race – because you just have no idea how these horses are going to react to this distance.

#1 Medal Count – his last win was the Transylvania Stakes in April, he looked good in the Blue Grass Stakes, however when he’s faced more quality talent he has not finished well (8^th in the Kentucky Derby, 5^th in the Fountain of Youth)

#11 Tonelist recently finished 1^st in the Peter Pan Stakes here in New York – defeating 2^nd place #8 Commissoner and 4^th place #3 Matterhorn.

Tonelist made a point of setting the early pace in the Peter Pan --- and ran very well on a sloppy track.  I’m not crazy about this post position today – but he could push California Chrome early and that could leave Chrome winded in the final furlong.

#4 Commanding Curve was closing on California Chrome in the final furlongs in the Kentucky Derby. This is the horse that concerns me the most – however I’m only basing that on how strong he looked at the end of the Kentucky Derby. His last victory was in November – but this horse has a solid post position and if he can finish as strongly as he did a month ago – he might be able to upset a tired Cali Chrome.

#5 Ride On Curlin could be the second best horse in this race – however this will be his fourth race in less than two months, and I think asking for a Belmont Victory out of this horse is asking too much. I like that they’re running him as if he’s going for the Triple Crown….but I think this horse needs to rest for a few months and start building towards a solid four year old season.

#6 Matuszak – his last race was a 2^nd place finish in April. He has shown nothing to indicate this is his race, but he’s exactly the kind of horse that comes out of nowhere.

#9 Wicked Strong is considered the second favorite in this race – he won the Wood Memorial and finished 4^th in the Kentucky Derby. Reports from Belmont are that he has looked sharp in workouts…..and he does have an advantage of being more rested than California Chrome and only having to race in two states (Kentucky and New York) over the past two months.

#7 Samraat – has finished just behind Wicked Strong in his past two races (2^nd in the Wood Memorial / 5^th in the Kentucky Derby).  Samraat had won 5 straight races before meeting up with Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial .

I think Wicked Strong, Samraat and Tonelist are the three best New York has to offer – they are properly rested and have home court advantage here in New York – Wicked Strong closed very well in the Wood Memorial – so he deserves to be considered a solid threat.

#10 General A Rod – similar to Ride On Curlin – this horse will be running in all three Triple Crown races and I have a lot of respect for racing like you’re going for it all. The General finished 4^th in the Preakness and 11^th in the Kentucky Derby. Solid horse – but he comes in with no advantages and just as fatigued as the Favorite who has beaten him soundly.

When the  bell rings and the gates fly open – I look for Samraat, Tonelist and California Chrome to set up shop at the top of the pack – pace will be incredibly important in this race – if these top three horses start dueling early and set a half mile pace under 48 seconds…..it could disastrous if you’re hoping for a Triple Crown bid.

As the come out of the final turn I’ll be looking for California Chrome to separate from the pack – I think he’ll be able to own the rail the entire race so he could put about 4 or more lengths between him and the rest as the head for home.

At this point we’ll see if Samraat or Tonelist are still in the hunt and pushing Cali Chrome or if they’ve begun to fade – in stretch for home I’ll start looking for Wicked Strong and Commanding Curve to start closing --- at it will simply come down to how fatigued California Chrome is, and if he has the fight to hold off any of the late closers.....or if one of these horses just "has" the distance in him?? As I stated it's more wide open then most might think.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah would
love a California Chrome victory
and a Nathan's Hot Dog with
Chili Fries......

What can I say….I’d love to see California Chrome win a Triple Crown…..

Closing Speed likes: California Chrome / Commanding Curve / Tonelist

If I’m betting $26 on this race I like:

$10 – Wicked Strong to Win

$10 – Commanding Curve to Win

$6 – Exacta Box – California Chrome / Tonelist / Commanding Curve