2014 Rebel Stakes

OAKLAWN PARK - March 15, 2014

Race 10 - 6:04 PM

Rebel S.   (Grade II)

Purse - $600,000

Distance - One And One Sixteenth Miles

Surface – Dirt

Jet Cat

Ride On Curlin

Tapiture

Strong Mandate

Hoppertunity

Sheltowee’s Boy

Street Strategy

Kobe’s Back

I feel it’s important to offer some forewarning that the forecast for this race is WET – and that can certainly alter how some Owners/Trainers will approach this race.

Owners of a horse that is already in good shape to go to the Kentucky Derby and still has another “Big Race” in front of them, like the Arkansas Derby next month, may have their “Super Star” horse just get out and breeze the track without any real effort to win.

The idea here is to make sure your horse stays on the schedule they’ve made, but more importantly make sure their prize pony comes back in one piece....they may not care at all about winning.

I’ve also seen sub par horses go all out in the mud – because Jockey’s /  Trainer’s / Owners realize this may be their best opportunity to pull off an upset, and sneak into the Kentucky Derby….better to be invited and lose than to not be invited at all!!  So Bettors Beware.

I’m approaching this race with the idea that all of the horses will be putting in their best efforts – and I really hope they do because this race features several excellent horses.

For #2 Ride on Curlin, #3 Tapiture and #4 Strong Mandate the Rebel Stakes will serve as a rematch from the Southwest Stakes here at Oaklawn last month.

If you watch the video below you’ll see Ride On Curlin makes a very early move after the quarter mile but can’t sustain the momentum --- in the end he fades into a very close third with the bulk of the pack.

Arkansas Derby Winner, Preakness Winner and
apparently cornrow wearing gangsta!
You're my boy Curlin!

As I look at Ride On Curlin’s resume he seems to be most effective racing under a mile (with his only two wins coming at 6 Furlongs and 5 ½ furlongs).

As much as I want to believe that this horse will become a repeat of his sire Curlin (one of my favorites ever!) – and as much as I also want to believe that by going nearly 8 wide in the first turn of the Southwest he just got thrown off his game…… I advise not buying into the name here.

The Southwest Stakes were seemingly set-up perfect for Tapiture as he was able to claim the rail, set the pace and close out with a very solid victory.

Unless weather somehow becomes a factor – Tapiture has the perfect starting spot for a repeat performance and with a victory or a place in this race all but assures himself a spot in the Kentucky Derby.

Strong Mandate was the favorite in the Southwest Stakes however, in contrast to Tapiture, he had several obstacles to overcome. If you watch the race, he gets bumped coming out of the gate, squeezed and forced to fall back early which forces him to go well wide into the first turn.

They do a great job of recovering as they are less than a length  behind the leader at about ¾ of a mile, however he’s still forced to go five or six wide in the final turn – and Tapiture just had it too easy for Strong Mandate to be able to catch up.

Something to consider if the track is muddy – Strong Mandate has  a victory on a damp track and Tapiture is still untested on mud.

See Race:
Southwest Stakes 2014

#8 Kobe’s Back is currently the third favorite {7-2}, behind Tapiture and Strong Mandate – and this horse is an intrigue as he enters the Rebel Stakes. I really don’t like that this he’s traveled from California and he’s never raced at Oaklawn – especially since the two favorites have recently raced here.

I’m also concerned that his two victories were under a mile and in the Cash Call Futurity (the only race he’s run at 1 1/16^th a mile) he finished 10^th.

But when you stop looking at his paper and instead watch him run:

All I can envision now is a Gray late charging Monster barreling down the track and winning with ease! Tough call to make on this horse. He's the kind of horse that I think could finish 1st or finish almost dead last....very tough call here.He is also untested in the mud.

Finally there’s #7 Street Strategy – ridden by Calvin Borel -- who is giving good odds at 8-1. He’s the least experienced horse in the field with only two attempts – however out of those two races he has a victory and a 2^nd place finish – he also has some experience with a damp track, and his only two races have been here at Oaklawn.

His Sire (Juvenile Champion / Kentucky Derby Winner) Street Sense certainly had no trouble with distance, so one presumes this horse will be up for a mile 1/16.

His lack of experience concerns me, especially with this caliber of talent  – however I think this horse may only need a little help to pull off an upset here.

One last consideration (especially if the track is muddy) is #6 Sheltowee’s Boy who is currently going off at 15-1. He has two victories, a place and one 4^th place finish in four races.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
does NOT care for Mud and Rain
and neither does Tiny Cheetah!

He has a Win and a Place on Wet Tracks and for the most part though - I think Sheltowee’s Boy,  #5 Hoppertunity or #1 Jet Cat are outclassed here – but if the track is sloppy and you think the good horses will be holding back….you may want to consider Sheltowee’s Boy.

If the horses come out to run tomorrow – Closing Speed likes: Tapiture / Strong Mandate / Street Strategy.

My $1 Exacta Box is:  3,4, 7 = $6  -- the hope here is that a relative long shot will break up the two favorites.

Tampa Bay Derby - 2014

TAMPA BAY - March 08, 2014

Race 11 - 5:25 PM

Tampa Bay Derby   (Grade II)

Purse - $350,000

Distance - One And One Sixteenth Miles

Surface – Dirt

Ring Weekend

Surfing U.S.A.

Matador

Coltimus Prime

Conquest Titan

Vinceremos

East Hall

Cousin Stephen

My Kodiak Warrior

Tuscan Getaway

There are two reasons I believe these horses entered the Tampa Bay Derby – the first is to secure a portion of the 85 Kentucky Derby points available in this race…..the winner would essentially be secured a spot to the big dance in May.

The second (and no less important) reason is that none of these horses want to be in a position of “needing” points and have to face Cairo Prince in the Florida Derby.  He may be the Prince of Cairo – but he’s currently the KING of Florida.

As you’ll see in the video – #5 Conquest Titan lands a distant second against Cairo Prince in the Holy Bull….and Conquest Titan could likely be the favorite in this race when the gates open.

Link to Video:
Holy Bull Stakes

It will be very interesting to see what the strategy will be for any number of these horses.

There are three long shots who I believe will attempt to take the lead going into or coming out of the first turn.

#1 Ring Weekend has the rail and while going for the early lead isn’t necessarily his racing style I think due to his post position and the competition around him – they may attempt to stay at the front of the pack.

My biggest concern with Ring Weekend is that he was sired by Tapit….and Tapit horses always seem to get the best of me.

Ring Weekend also has three races at this distance -- and he won his last one....he's in a great spot to surprise here.

#4 Coltimus Prime is another long shot (15-1) that could bolt for an early lead in this race – in fact I expect him to set the early pace – in his last outing he ran out of gas and finished 2^nd so stamina could be a concern. He also hasn’t raced in 90 days….which for the younger horses usually means they’ll struggle.

And finally #10 Tuscan Getaway (20-1) will also likely run with the early pack. This horse intrigues me and not just because his name makes me think of Diane Lane in Under the Tuscan Sun -- which is distracting in all the best possible ways.....

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
thinks a Zebra dinner under the
glow of the Savannah Moonlight
with Ms. Lane
is the purrfect evening.

Tuscan Getaway went wire to wire in his last outing (an Allowance Race) at this same distance – however that was 112 days ago. I think this is a lousy starting point (10^th) for this horse – however his style of racing is perfect for an upset here….and if in the past 112 days he’s built up his stamina….He could steal this one - but needs a ton of help here!

However a lot of this race could depend on how the favorite 

#2 Surfing U.S.A. approaches this race. He’s also very comfortable being a front runner – but in his last race he gave way and finished 2^nd at this same distance. I’m not a big fan of Surfing USA as the favorite here – he could easily fall into a speed duel that leaves him winded in the final furlongs with any of the longshots OR he may have trouble pulling back early and taking on the late closers at their own game.

#8  Cousin Stephen is yet another horse that could decide to challenge early. Cousin Stephen led the way in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and as they hit the final turn he just seems to run out of steam as #6 Vinceremos sneaks out a victory by surviving on the inside.

Cousin Stephen also doesn’t have the best starting post for his style of racing and I have similar concerns of a speed trap or lack of stamina like I do with Surfing USA.

#6 Vinceremos impressed me in the Sam F. Davis – because it appeared like he was going to fade out of contention as they entered the final turn….but as they exited the turn he slingshots back into the lead and has enough fight to hold everyone else off.

Link to the race:
Sam F. Davis Stakes

I like a horse that has a fighting spirit, I like that this horse is capable of running a “smart” race – and I like that he’s won his past two races….I’ll be very interested to see how jockey Edgar Prado approaches this challenge – because I don’t know how comfortable this horse will be running in the middle of the pack getting dirt kicked in his face…..and the battle for the “early jump” could force any number of horses to run far wide or get bottled up in traffic.

I may be emphasizing the battle for the “early jump” too much in this race but I have to think the second favorite #5 Conquest Titan would happily watch the bulk of his competitors wear themselves out in the first mile of the race so he can breeze by them in the last 16^th.

Conquest Titan is a very solid late charging colt and in my opinion is in a perfect spot to pull off the victory here – I’m a little concerned he didn’t finish closer to Cairo Prince in his last outing….however if he wins here – that may be a strong indication of just how good Cairo Prince is.

They say Pace makes the Race – and I believe that to be absolutely key in this one --

Closing Speed likes:

Ahem....still distracted....But as far as the horses go -

Closing Speed likes:
Conquest Titan / Vinceremos / Surfing USA   (5/6/2)

However I would bet this race differently - because I like a "long shot" to break up the favorites.and Ring Weekend is the one that concerns me.

$1 Exacta Box - 5/6/1 = $6 -- is how I might approach it.

Gotham Stakes 2014

AQUEDUCT - March 01, 2014

Race 9 - 4:17 PM

Gotham S.   (Grade III)

Purse - $500,000

Distance - One And One Sixteenth Miles

Surface - Dirt

1 – Noble Contender

1a – Samraat

2 – In Trouble

3 – Financial Mogul

4 – Uncle Sigh

5 – Monopolize

6 – Deceived

7 – Classic Giacnroll

8 – Extrasexyhippzster

9 – Master Lightning

10 - Harpoon

Hey there race fans – well Closing Speed is getting started a little late for the Triple Crown run this year – but the first race I’m covering promises to be an exciting one.

#1a Samraat and #4 Uncle Sigh are set for a rematch after finishing in a final stretch duel last month in the Withers Stakes here at Aqueduct.

Samraat exhibited fantastic poise in his last race as he stalked Uncle Sigh nearly the entire trip and pushed ahead for the victory in the last few furlongs. Samraat enters this race undefeated in four races.

As you’ll see in the video below Uncle Sigh may have pulled back a bit if he was uneasy about being pinned against the rail in the Withers. We’ll see if Uncle Sigh can find some breathing room this time around and improve when they head for home.

#2 In Trouble enters this race with some good news and some bad news – the good news is this horse has two victories in two races…..the bad news is he hasn’t raced for 153 days. 

Against this level of talent , and with his lack of experience I think a third place finish would be impressive.

#6 Deceived interests me as he enters this race after a victory in a recent allowance race – he had an absolutely horrible start in the Damon Runyon Stakes and I sense this horse has some good racing ahead. 

However in the Damon Runyon Stakes Samraat romped and Deceived wasn’t even in the same area code when Samraat hit the finish line……I like Deceived but he’ll need a lot of help to compete in this one.

Strangely Sensitive
Extra Sexy Cheetah
knows when you saw the words:
Extra Sexy, you immediately
thought of his
Extra Sexy Self.....Growl!

#8 Extrasexyhippzster has been BLAZING the racetrack over the past two races – and he has three victories in his past five races. He may end up being the 2^nd favorite in this race when the gates open.

#10 Harpoon – Is currently going off at 10-1 odds and I think he’s extremely under bet! Don’t let his one victory in five attempts fool you…..he’s finished 2^nd in the remaining four races and I think he’ll hit his stride as the races begin moving to longer distances.  In his last outing, the Sam Davis Stakes, he struggled with all kinds of traffic issues in the final turn and then in a blink he blew past four horses and closed about five or six lengths on the leader to lose by a nose. He's got a great starting position, and we'll see if he can pull off an upset.

I believe the race will unfold with Samraat and Extrasexyhippzster setting the pace – they may let Uncle Sigh take the lead and stalk him into the final turn, but I also believe they could shoot past him early and set a faster early pace.

As the race closes it is possible that Samraat, Extrasexyhippzster and/or Uncle Sigh will have set the pace too hot for the distance – and Harpoon would be in the perfect spot to take the victory away from the exhausted horses.

However from what I’ve seen from Samraat I don’t think he’ll get suckered into an early speed duel that leaves him gasping in the final furlong – I think either Extrasexyhippzster will have to beat him at his own game or Harpoon will wait in the middle of the pack and blow by them in the final few strides.

Then again I can also see Samraat winning this race by a neck -- he's got talent, patience and he knows this track. 

Weather permitting this should be a great race.

Closing Speed is swinging for the fences on the first pitch and likes: 

Harpoon – Samraat – Extrasexyhippster (10/1/8)

  

Another Race of interest is the Swale Stakes – as #1 Havana takes on #3 No Nay Never

Havana finished second in the Breeders Cup Back in November and is considered by many to be a promising Kentucky Derby prospect.

However No Nay Never has three victories, in three races….in THREE COUNTRIES! He’s beaten horses here in America, England and France – which is kind of badass! 

I think both of these horses could struggle – because they’ve had so much time off – Havana 119 days and No Nay Never 195….and it may be worth throwing some cash at #2 Can’t Stop the Kid or #4 Prudhoe Bay…..but I think (and hope) that this race will be about two major talents Havana and No Nay Never leaving everyone else in the dust. Should be a good one.

Belmont Stakes 2013

BELMONT PARK - June 08, 2013

Race 11 - 6:36 PM

Belmont S.   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,000,000

Distance - One And One Half Miles

1 – Frac Daddy

2 – Freedom Child

3 – Overanaylze

4 – Giant Finish

5 – Orb

6 – Incognito

7 – Oxbow

8 – Midnight Taboo

9 – Revolutionary

10 – Will Take Charge

11 – Vyjack

12 – Palace Malice

13 – Unlimited Budget

14 – Golden Soul

Let me begin by writing that I really thought #5 Orb was the best three year old racing this year and that I was confident we would be looking at Triple Crown Contention this Saturday.

According to his ownership when Orb was asked to go for the win down the stretch….he just didn’t respond --- so here’s the question for horse racing fans – was his lack of response a one time thing or is he going to be asleep again down the stretch when they add more distance in the Belmont Stakes??

The Morning Line has him as the favorite and if the Florida and Kentucky Derby Orb shows up I agree that he’s the one who should win…..but it’s a bit of tough sell when he finished 4^th in his last race – the Preakness.

After finishing 6^th in the Kentucky Derby and not having won a race since January -- #7 Oxbow shocked the racing world (and specifically one gentleman below) by going practically wire to wire for a Preakness victory!

I'm just guessing he didn't bet on Oxbow......

I really like Oxbow – and I think if they allow him to race for another few years he could become a key horse in Stakes Races, he’s just solid all around talent and kind of a working class colt. 

Currently he’s considered the third morning line favorite – and I like his chances – he’s got a solid post position, and I think he has a chance to win with the same strategy that put him in the Preakness Winner’s Circle.The distance is a major question.....but that's a major question for everyone in this race.

The Second Morning Line Favorite is #9 Revolutionary – and he has won three out of his last five races….his two losses were both to Orb.

Revolutionary could be dangerous because he skipped the Preakness – and he could benefit by having fresher legs than Orb and Oxbow. Revolutionary has shown a powerful late kick and he may have just enough going for him this Saturday to finally beat Orb.

Moving back to the top of the order –

#1 Frac Daddy – 16^th in the KY Derby and hasn’t won a race since last November. I like this rascal of a horse but I don’t think he’s got more than a mile and 1/16^th in him.

#2 Freedom Child – recently defeated #6 Incognito (5^th) in a romp here at Belmont in the Peter Pan Stakes. I think he could challenge Oxbow for the early lead and then it could come down to which horse is going to have the distance and is most comfortable at Belmont Park…..at 8/1 he’s a very interesting prospect that needs a little help.

Peter Pan Stakes:

#3 Overanalyze – if you believe in horses bouncing (meaning he wins a race than loses a race than wins the next race) then you’ll love Overanalyze who finished 11^th in the KY Derby – and has won 4 out of 8 lifetime races….never having two consecutive losses or victories in a row. So he’s due for a win. 

He was rusty having not raced for several months in his Gotham Stakes loss….won with style in a tough Arkansas Derby field…and then finished poorly in a sloppy Kentucky Derby – that I’m kind of dismissing because the mud was such a factor. At 12-1….how can you not put a couple of dollars on a horse that always seems to bounce back???

#4 Giant Finish – finished 10^th in the Kentucky Derby, I think he’s outclassed here.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
Starring as Jungle Cat
in the best selling novel,
adaptation for film.....
MIDNIGHT TABOO!!!

#8 Midnight Taboo – comes in as a 30-1 mystery. He has one victory in three attempts and he finished 2^nd in his last race, an allowance race here in Belmont. With the quantity and quality of talent in this Belmont Stakes I just think this is asking too much of this inexperienced horse……at 100-1 he might catch my attention….although he’s got a great name….sounds like a trashy novel that everyone would read but nobody would admit too…….either that…..or a Tiki Drink that everyone would drink and never remember drinking.

#10 Will Take Charge – Defeated Oxbow in  the Rebel Stakes by a head when he stormed late down the final stretch to steal the victory……but since then he’s finished 8^th in the Kentucky Derby and 7^th in the Preakness….where O’ where did that late stormy action go? 

If Will Take Charge can find that lightning in a bottle again, I think he could upset – but my gut tells me his Rebel Stakes victory was just a unique outing for him. I think he could crack the top three – but he needs help to win, and he will need to find that great late kick that he only showed once.

#11 Vyjack – This horse was a New York favorite leading up to the Wood Memorial where he finished a disappointing 3^rd place, followed by  a VERY disappointing 18^th place in the KY Derby.  I’m tossing out the KY Derby result – but I don’t think this horse has got the distance for this race….in fact I think that’s what most people believe. But he may be worth a $2 bet if he stays at 20/1 odds……he is a very solid contender and if he has found the distance in his training he’ll fight for it.

#12 Palace Malice – One victory in seven attempts…..the problem with this horse is that he could push the early pace and force horses like Oxbow and Freedom Child to get caught in an early speed trap. He’s the kind of horse that really doesn't have a chance to win…but his style of racing could very well change the outcome.

The Filly #13 Unlimited Budget – has won four of her last five races, but her only loss was her most recent race the Kentucky Oaks (the filly version of the Kentucky Derby) where she finished 3^rd.

She is the daughter to Kentucky Derby Champion Street Sense – which makes her Zenyatta’s niece (or whatever the horse term for that is?).  She very well could have the breeding for this distance – but I don’t know if she’s got the talent?

 

She’s going off at 8/1 and she has the very dangerous Rosie Napravnik as her jockey --- could this be a “Girl Power” Belmont – that would be pretty cool??

Last, but certainly not least is the 2^nd place finisher in the Kentucky Derby #14 Golden Soul.  I think the distance will help Golden Soul – however he never seems to be able to “close the deal” and win the race when it counts.  Lifetime he has finished 2^nd behind Orb (KY Derby), Revolutionary (4^th – Louisiana Derby) and Oxbow (LeComte Stakes).

To be honest I’m rooting a little bit for Unlimited Budget – filly with a female rider taking the Belmont Stakes (certainly considered the most grueling of the Triple Crown races) would be pretty awesome! 

However that’s not who I’m going to pick to win…..I think Palace Malice, Oxbow and/or Freedom Child are going to wear out early….too fast too furious.

And I think the closers will pull out a victory.

Closing Speed likes: Revolutionary, Overanaylze, Orb

If I’m betting $20 here’s who I like

$1 Exacta Box – 3,5,9, 13 = $12

$4 – Freedom Child to win

If the following are still at 20/1 or higher:

$2 – Will Take Charge to win

$2 – Vyjack to win 

Preakness Stakes 2013

PIMLICO - May 18, 2013

Race 12 - 6:20 PM

Preakness S.   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,000,000

Distance - One And Three Sixteenth Miles

1 – Orb

2 – Goldenscents

3 – Titletown Five

4 – Departing

5 – Mylute

6 – Oxbow

7 – Will Take Charge

8 – Govenor Charlie

9 – Itsmyluckyday

I began writing this blog several years ago in hopes of following the early career of a Triple Crown winner – and we’ve come close to breaking the thirty four year drought twice in recent years with Big Brown and I’ll Have Another.

Big Brown had mechanical difficulty in the Belmont, and I’ll Have Another unfortunately sustained an injury after the Preakness and was unable to race in the Belmont.

I believe #1 Orb has the talent to be a Triple Crown winner – He’s won his last five races, against quality talent – and the distance of the Preakness should be perfect for his style.

There is a 70% chance of rain, and he's proven that he can run in the mud (see KY Derby). 

A number of people are concerned with his #1 post position – and I’ll add that I have some concerns, but I don’t see it as being a big disadvantage. 

Orb has shown a maturity and a racing style that will allow him to sit back and find a spot he’s comfortable running in. If he’s able to keep up with the middle of the pack and find an opening in the final stretch I suspect (as long as he doesn't come out flat) he’ll sail by his competition to the winner’s circle as he has in the past few races.

I certainly agree that Orb should be the favorite in this race…..but I think he’s facing a bigger challenge than his 1/1 morning odds indicate, considering the competition….and here they are......

#2 Goldenscents finished a very disappointing 17^th in the Kentucky Derby – but this horse has bounced back before (With Santa Anita Derby and Delta Downs Jackpot victories). I’m throwing away his KY Derby performance – too much mud and too many horses. I disagree with his 8/1 morning line odds, I think this horse should be the second favorite here.

#3 Titletown Five is the longshot here at 30-1 odds….now these odds I completely agree with. I believe he’s completely outclassed in this one.

#5 Mylute and #4 Departing are the second and third favorites in this race respectively.  Mylute finished 2^nd just ahead of Departing in the Louisiana Derby…..and Mylute was the next closest finisher to Orb in the Kentucky Derby (5^th), that's facing him again today….but I’m just not a believer in these two horses being the second and third favorites in this race. I do like their post positions --- but if the ground isn’t muddy I think there are bigger challengers to Orb than these two.

Like #6 Oxbow – I like Oxbow and I think if he continues racing he’s going to be a very good horse in the next few years. I think if he runs "his" race and Orb runs into traffic Oxbow could pull off an upset here, but he’s the kind of horse that will need help. Oxbow is just kind of a Blue Collar, Lunch Pail, get the job done kind of horse – however I don’t think he has the explosive talent of some of the other contenders.

The next three horses are the ones that scare me the most…..

#7 Will Take Charge --- again I’m throwing away the muddy crowded KY Derby --- and I’m looking at his victory in the Rebel Stakes. I think on solid ground this horse is a bigger contender than his 8^th place Kentucky Derby finish or his 12/1 odds would indicate. If the ground is muddy….he doesn’t seem to run well in the muck so I may cross him out at that point…..but if it’s dry – watch out.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
would like to be addressed
as Governor from time
to time.

#8 Governor Charlie – worries me the most. It’s been 55 days since he last raced, however in his last outing the Sunland Derby, he kept up with the leaders on a 23 second first quarter,  a 46 second half mile and finishes a Mile 1/8 well ahead of the rest. This horse may be able to go wire to wire in this race, and if the rest of the horses gang up on Orb and try to prevent him from winning by simply keeping him pinned to the rail or in traffic…..Governor Charlie could be the horse that benefits the most.

In my opinion this horse will be rusty having taken almost two months off – however he’ll also have the freshest legs on the track, especially compared to six Kentucky Derby challengers who just ran 14 days ago in a different state.

At 12/1 odds…..He’s definitely my LONG SHOT ALERT!

Finally #9 Itsmyluckyday --- currently going off at 10/1 after a 15^th place finish in the KY Derby. I still think this horse has SCARY TALENT….because he was absolutely stunning in his Holy Bull Victory. However this will be his third time going up against Orb and he has yet to beat him. It’s getting harder to believe that Itsmyluckyday just didn’t have a lucky day in the Holy Bull.

Closing Speed likes: Orb, Governor Charlie, Goldenscents

If I’m betting $8 here’s who I like

$1 Exacta = 1/8 w 1/2/7/8/9

If Governor Charlie’s odds stay around 15-1 or 20-1 --- I like laying down $10 to win, and $10 to place.

Good Luck Champ - I'm pulling for you!

Kentucky Derby 2013

CHURCHILL DOWNS - May 04, 2013

Race 11 - 6:24 PM

Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands   (Grade I)

Purse - $2,000,000

Distance - One And One Fourth Miles

1 – Black Onyx

2 – Oxbow

3 – Revolutionary

4 – Golden  Soul

5 – Normandy Invasion

6 – Mylute

7 – Giant Finish

8 - Goldencents

9 – Overanalyze

10 – Palace Malice

11 - Lines of Battle

12 – Itsmyluckyday

13 – Falling Sky

14 – Verrazano

15 – Charming Kitten

16 – Orb

17 – Will Take Charge

18 – Frac Daddy

19 – Java’s War

20 - Vyjack

They're saying 90% chance of showers……historically this race is difficult to break down, the parity of this years talent makes it exceptionally difficult to break down…..and then you tell me there will likely be rain and mud?!?! Ohhhhh Kentucky Derby how you task me!

With one exception – I’m writing my breakdown with the idea that we’ll luck out and weather won’t be a barrier in tomorrow’s race --- despite the mere 10% chance of that happening.

If you decide to bet tomorrow and the track is just a mess -- my suggestion is to bet a number of long-shots ...because the playing field will (in my opinion) be more even and at the same time more unpredictable.

#1 Black Onyx (Spiral Stakes winner) – has been scratched…… If this horse returns for the Preakness I think he could be a threat – ownership probably hated the inside position and the chance of bad weather.

#2 Oxbow. I like this horse, but he needed a little help in this one and instead he picked up a difficult opening spots for his style of racing. I think he’ll get buried early in this race and won’t be able to break free until it’s too late.

#3 Revolutionary (Louisiana Derby winner) – Rarely will you see me write this in my blog, because I’m not big on “Betting the Jockey” but if the track is just a mess of mud  tomorrow – I like Revolutionary a LOT in the Kentucky Derby. He’s a very talented colt, he’ll fight for a victory – but Calvin Borel just “GETS” this track. Borel won in the mud a few years ago with Mine That Bird – and I believe (in this race) he could be a difference maker.

#4 Golden Soul – unless he’s great in the mud?? He’s got one victory last December against no one special. Sold starting spot….but that’s all I see – I think he’s over matched here.

#5 Normandy Invasion – Interesting prospect of a horse (I see him becoming a very good four and five year old), solid post position – but I think he’ll need a lot of help to win here. Wouldn't surprise me if he landed in the top 5 though. Last trip to the winners circle was in November.

#6 Mylute – (2^nd in the Louisiana Derby) love the starting spot, he’s a fighter…but I see him as being outclassed here as well. Solid horse…but not a superstar.

#7 Giant Finish – (3^rd in the Spiral Stakes) I think he’s a sleeping talent….but I haven’t seen enough to put my $2 down on this horse even though I love the odds (50-1…and likely higher when they go off) and I love the starting spot. He's the kind of long shot I like in bad weather.

#8 Goldencents – (Santa Anita Derby Winner) – Santa Anita is in my back yard and for a number of years I put the Santa Anita Derby winner as a sentimental favorite of mine….only to be greatly disappointed year in and year out (I’m looking at your Colonel John..and Pioneer of the Nile)….but last year Santa Anita Derby winner I’ll Have Another took the first two races in the Triple Crown against equally difficult talent, compared to this year.

Of course last year I gave up on
Santa Anita Winners.
D'oh!

Goldencents has talent, a great starting spot and a jockey with an extremely cool dialect!! But I can’t help but see this horse as being a very good horse among a few possibly great ones. Then again perhaps he is peaking at the right time?

#9 Overanalyze – (Arkansas Derby Winner) Great opening spot and after a long layoff this horse could be coming into his talent. I believe this horse could have another gear that he hasn't shown us yet – he won the Arkansas Derby going wide for much of the race, which he’ll have to repeat, but he’s a tempting bet. If this horse has “found his stride” than he could easily be a modest upset here. A lot of things working for this 12-1 horse.

#10 Palace Malice – (2^nd Blue Grass Stakes) Good opening spot….and his Dad, Curlin, was a Champion….however his dad isn’t running today. I’d be surprised if this horse cracks the top 10.

#11 Lines of Battle (UAE Derby Winner) It’s unique to get the UAE Derby winner in the Kentucky Derby….Lines of Battle has already won the Middle East version of the Kentucky Derby and is only going off at 30-1 here?? I don’t like how much he’s had to travel….but I see this horse more like 10-1 than 30-1. I think you throw down a few bucks if the weather is bad.

#12 Itsmyluckyday – (2^nd Florida Derby) First of all I think he’ll be over bet because of his name…..however this horse concerns me more than any other “longshot” in the field. He strikes me as a horse who has VERY SCARY talent…..but he also strikes me as a horse who doesn’t have that drive – that NEED to win consistently. I can see this horse winning by 5 lengths or finishing in the bottom half.  15-1 makes him considerably tempting. And sure….throw in some mud and he becomes even more of an enigma.

#13 Falling Star – Seems out classed here.

#14 Verrazano – (Wood Memorial winner) He’s undefeated. One of his owners just won the College Basketball Championship – and this horse (unlike Itsmyluckyday) seems to have the talent AND the drive to win big races. Unfortunately I believe weather hurts this horse perhaps more than the other horses.

One thing I have seen in horse racing is that if you have a champion caliber animal – you may decide NOT to push that animal if the weather is bad….it seems (in other bad weather races) a few managements have reigned in their horses, making sure the champion caliber horses have a safe trip as opposed to risking whatever you need to do for victory…and if you lose the Kentucky Derby you lose a shot at immortality…..however you could also be saving an amazing animal that breeding offers are already being whispered about.

Then again....you could just tell the jockey to win, no matter the risk (it is the Kentucky Derby after all!!!)

Tough call. If the weather is bad and this horse comes out flat and then he turns around and tears up the Preakness (in good weather)……you’ll know my reason why.

#15 Charming Kitten – Seems outclassed here. 

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
hopes that when you read
Charming Kitten
You thought of him.

#16 Orb (Florida Derby Winner) he’s the morning line favorite and will probably flip flop a few times with Verrazano for that distinction before the gates open. The reason Orb will be favored is that he seems to have everything going his way right now.

Fantastic opening spot for his style of racing. He’s won his last four races against quality talent – and even with muddy conditions I believe he’ll be a strong contender in the end.

He’s a late charging horse, so traffic could be an issue for him late – but I think his early position will give him the opportunity to pick his spot going into the first turn and allow him to run the race he’ll want to run.  Unlike what I see right now in Itsmyluckyday – this is a horse who is both mentally and physically ready to be a champion…..but there is a LOT of talent in this race this year.

#17 Will Take Charge – (Rebel Stakes Winner) Quite frankly….this horse scares the hell out of me. He hasn’t raced in 49 days which could make him a little rusty coming into this race. He did not run well in the mud in the Southwest Stakes --- but he ran VERY well in the Rebel Stakes and Smarty Jones Stakes.

He’ll be able to stalk the likely favorite (Orb) and both of them are late charging horses.  I don’t like placing my hopes on a horse who has been sitting out for a month and a half….but this long shot is definitely worth a look. He’s a dangerous horse.

#18 Frac Daddy – Similar to Palace Malice --- I like this horse, I loved their sires….but I don’t see them doing well in the big dance.

#19 Java’s War – (Blue Grass Stakes winner and Half brother to Revolutionary) – I also really like this horse – however he doesn’t have a great opening spot for his style of racing and I think he’s slightly outclassed here. He’s the kind of horse that could also develop into a great four or five year old horse.

#20 Vyjack – (3^rd Wood Memorial) he absolutely dominated the New York group before Verrazano showed up in the Wood Memorial . Very solid horse….but I don’t see him having much of a chance in this one.

In closing I believe Orb and Verrazano are the two most talented and proven horses entering the Kentucky Derby….and both of them will need luck to defeat one another (along with quite a bit of surrounding talent).

If the track is muddy – I like Revolutionary – don’t get me wrong this horse could very well win this race without the help of bad weather and a great jockey….however if the playing field becomes more even due to bad weather – Calvin Borel has been a game changer here before.

I think with a little good luck Goldencents or Overanalyze could win this race and it would be a modest upset. However with just a slight amount of bad luck I think either of these horses could end up finishing in the bottom half of the field. It really is just that talented of a field this year.

The horses that scare the hell out of me are:

 UAE Champion Lines of Battle  -- because he’s already claimed being the best three year old horse in one half of the world -- then he travels here, gets a great opening spot and is given mouth watering odds!!!

Itsmyluckyday – because I think this horse has explosive ability….but it’s also an elusive and unpredictable ability.

Will Take Charge – I see a horse that could be a little like I’ll Have Another from last year – who comes in under the radar and makes you check your program twice after he crosses the finish line.

I’m looking forward to a great race – and I hope the storm clouds spare us a soupy track.

Closing Speed likes: Orb, Overanalyze, Revolutionary.

On a personal note I’ll be very happy if a couple of different horses win……however with such a closely contested race I think you bet the longshots a little more.

If I’m betting $20 here’s who I like

$4 – Win #11 Lines of Battle

$1 - Exacta -  3, 9, 12, 17 w/ 14 & 16 = $8

$1 – Exacta – 14 & 16 w/ 3,9,12,17 = $8

**And if the track is bad $10 Win #3 Revolutionary.

2013 Arkansas Derby

OAKLAWN PARK - April 13, 2013

Race 10 - 5:28 PM

Arkansas Derby   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,000,000

Distance - One And One Eighth Miles

1 – Carve

2 – War Academy

3 – Divine Ambition

4 – Falling Sky

5 – Den’s Legacy

6 – Heaven's Runway

7 – Texas Bling

8 - Frac Daddy

9 – Overanalyze

10 – Oxbow

The Arkansas Derby serves as a rematch of the Rebel Stakes for a healthy bounty of these horses, including #10 Oxbow, who finished 2^nd, #5 Den’s Legacy (3^rd), #7 Texas Bling (4^th), and #1 Carve (6^th).

Rebel Stakes:

To my surprise the horse getting all of the Morning Line Love is #2 War Academy – who has Oaklawn buzzing with comparisons to last year’s super contender Bodemeister.

Respect the Buzz!

Last year after only three relatively minor prep races, Bodemeister successfully won the Arkansas Derby (before finishing 2^nd in the KY Derby and Preakness). 

War Academy enters the fray with two allowance race victories, and a fourth place finish in the Grade II San Vicente --- so why is he the favorite again??

One thing I have learned to respect is a certain “buzz” about a promising three year old horse – and it wouldn’t surprise me if the “promise” of War Academy comes to fruition (when you hear this kind of buzz you should listen)…..but I certainly don’t see this horse as a 2-1 favorite, especially considering that most of the field has been better seasoned here at Oaklawn (see Rebel Stakes), and this will be War Academy’s first attempt at this track.

In fact unlike a number of other Prep Races --- (I’m looking at you Florida Derby & Wood Memorial) – I see the Arkansas Derby as being a wide open race.

#3 Divine Ambition is starting at 20-1 – but finished with an impressive 2^nd place finish in the Rushaway Stakes. He has two victories in five attempts and with a little luck could certainly contend here (that is unless he's running in the Bluegrass Stakes -- he is entered in both races).

Strangely Sensitively Cheetah is
slightly concerned about the
Religious Theme of 3,4 and 6....

#4 Falling Sky returns from a third place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby--- finishing well behind “The Monster” Verrazano – and a scrappy Java’s War (who will be contending in the Bluegrass Stakes). 

Falling Sky is going off at 10-1 and I’m not convinced he isn’t better prepared than the favorite.

#6 Heaven’s Runway is no chump. In the Southwest Stakes he finished behind Super Ninety Nine and Fear the Kitten – but ahead of Rebel Stakes winner Will Take Charge (finished 6^th). Keep in mind the Southwest Stakes was a very muddy affair that day – and Heaven’s Runway could surprise if the ground is firm.  He may be the early speed in this race – and if he can muster the distance could be a lot of (profitable) trouble at 30-1!!

#8 Frac Daddy is coming off a disappointing 7^th place finish in the Florida Derby – it pains me to write this because I was a big fan of Frac Daddy’s….um….Daddy – Scat Daddy – but Frac Daddy doesn’t appear to have enough talent to be a real contender here. He does strike me as a horse that may be a late bloomer, and develop into a class horse over the next year.....then again I may just be holding on to some false hope for this horse.

I believe, third favorite (4-1) #9 Overanalyze could be primed for a big run here. He returned from hiatus (after winning the Remsen Stakes in November) – and ran a predictably rusty 5^th place finish in the Gotham Stakes in March.

Overanalyze showed a lot promise back in November – but his last outing certainly doesn’t inspire confidence.

And of course let’s not forget that Oxbow only lost the Rebel Stakes by a nose -- in my opinion he doesn't have the buzz....but he does have the experience -- and that could be the real difference here.

As they enter the final stretch it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Oxbow and Overanalyze leading the charge, with Den’s Legacy somewhere in the top 5….the question is will another horse (like Heaven’s Runway) completely surprise here – will the buzz around War Academy be true or be quieted??

Throw a dart in this one – it’s practically wide open.

I’m going with some consistency and taking Oxbow to win this one – but I’m taking a surprise with Falling Sky Second and Overanalyze third.

Closing Speed likes: 10,4,9

At the betting booth I like

$2 Exacta – 9,10 w 3,4,6, = $6

$2 Win Bets on – 3 & 4 = $4

Total $10

The Bluegrass Stakes have never been especially kind to me…….

But Closing Speed likes:

Java’s War / Uncaptured  & West Hills Giant.

I like

$1 Exacta  – 4,7 w 1,11,12 = $6

$2 Win Bets on – 11, 12 = $4