Pimlico Race Track RACE 13 – 7:01 PM Preakness S. (Grade I) Purse - $1,500,000 Distance - One And 3/16ths Mile Surface – Dirt
1 – National Treasure 2 – Chase the Chaos 3 – Mage 4 – Coffeewithchris 5 – Red Route One 6 – Perform 7 – Blazing Sevens 8 – First Mission
Mage is the one in the middle.
I am a bit saddened that only one horse from the Kentucky
Derby will be racing in the Preakness – the good news is, it is the Kentucky
Derby winner and Preakness Favorite #3 Mage.
If you haven’t seen the Kentucky Derby the replay is
below.
However if you only watched it casually or only watched
it once – I’d ask for you to watch it again with a few specifics in mind.
Using the Youtube Video timer:
If you go to the 1:35 point you will see
Mage and Angel of Empire going stride for stride in the final turn – Mage is
strategically on the outside – but still in the middle of the track (it’s a
strange NBC Angle from above).
At 1:45 – You will see Mage block off an outside hole for
Angel of Empire – boxing Angel of Empire inside.
It takes Angel of Empire 20 seconds (2:05) to swing
outside and find open ground – just enough time for Mage to fly by Two Phils
and still beat Angel of Empire to the finish line!
Rider Javier Castellano
absolutely made the difference in this race.
So let’s move onto the Preakness.
#8 Mage – is the morning line favorite at 8-5 – and while
I certainly agree he should be the favorite, I think those odds are far too
cocky for a horse that only has 2 lifetime wins.
Yes he’s very likely the best horse in this field and he
seems to favor races longer than a mile – but 8/5 on a horse with just two
wins? I don’t know about that.
Searching for clues on these odds.
#1 National Treasure – is another horse that I’m not so
positive deserves the odds of 4-1. While I love this horses name because the
film National Treasure is guilty pleasure of mine – similar to the film, just
because it’s loved doesn’t mean it’s that good…..(who am I kidding – it’s
wonderful!)
Jockey John Velazquez has been National Treasures jockey
for all 5 of this horses races – he’s a very good rider and knows the horse
well. However if you look at this horse’s history – he’s actually struggled
with the any race further than a mile.
He has the talent to land in the top three – but could
very easily be “fade” material.
#2 Chase the Chaos
– Is the El Camino Derby winner and therefore an automatic invite to the
Preakness. I like that Trainer / Ownership are going with a very successful Pimilico Jockey –
Sheldon Russell, who has won 7 out of 13 races here at Pimilico this meet.
But I don’t see anything on this horse’s resume to
suggest a wager….even at 50-1.
#4 Coffeewithchris
– This horse has 12 lifetime races, and for a 3 year old that’s a LOT. Out of
those 12 races this horse has been a Win/Place or Show 8 times…..which is also
impressive.
Current 20-1 odds makes some sense – as this horse hasn’t
necessarily challenged this level of talent – but I really like the success
rate here – and he should be considered as a Exacta / Trifecta contender
player.
#5 Red Route One –
finished 6th behind Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby – but won
his last race, coming from as far back as 8 lengths.
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah would like to point out that the writers Father DID like Two Phils in that race.
At 10-1 odds and an ability to close late – this horse
also has my interest in an Exacta / Trifecta.
He has hit the board 5 out of 9 lifetime races. And Joel Rosario was on board with his most
recent win.
#6 Perform – has
won his last 2 races and has hit the board 4 out of 7 races lifetime. Finished
well behind Mage this past January.
His morning line is 15-1 – I really don’t see much in
this horse…..but to be fair, I didn’t see much in Two Phils who finished 2nd
in the KY Derby.
#7 Blazing Sevens –
I think this horse will be overbet because it’s the #7 horse and his name
is Blazing Sevens! He’s a solid horse who has been training well. He has 2 Victories in 6 lifetime attempts.
But hasn’t won a race since October 2022. I think 10-1
odds would be reasonable for this horse.
#8 First Mission –
This horse is the current 2nd favorite after Mage. He has raced in
only three races but has 2 wins and 1 place…..his last two races were both
trips to the Winner’s Circle.
He may need to be the early speed in this race and certainly
could fancy a Wire to Wire trip. I don’t love his outside position against a
horse like Mage in this race.
Here’s how I see the race:
#8 First Mission
bolts for the early lead and may have to contend with #4 Coffeewithchris.
#3 Mage will
likely enjoy a leisurely first mile staying within a few lengths of the leaders.
#1 National
Treasure could be a bit of a wildcard – this horse could look to stay on
the inside, but also stay stride for stride with Mage….however that also could
lead to this horse getting boxed inside when it counts?
#5 Red Route One and
#6 Perform I think will stay at the
back of the pack.
I think #8 First
Mission fades…..I’ll be surprised if he has the maturity to pace himself
and then outrun Mage down the stretch -- as this is only Mage's 4th race......it may be a mistake to discount First Mission on a lack of races. I may be rooting for a longer shot here because it would be more interesting.
#4 Coffeewithchris
– could finish well because his early position may help him stay in the
race.
**If Mage were to fade in this race - #4 Coffeewithchris
and #5 Red Route One could churn up some sizeable upsets.
However I think Mage flys by everyone in the final
stretch – and Red Route One, First Mission and National Treasure fight it out a
few lengths behind.
Closing Speed likes:
Mage, Coffeewithchris and Red Route One
Churchill Downs –
May 6th, 2023 Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST) Kentucky Derby Purse - $3,000,000 Distance - One And One Quarter Miles Surface - Dirt
1 – Hit Show
2 – Verifying
3 – Two Phil’s
4 – Confidence Game
5 – Tapit Trice
6 – Kingsbarns
7 – Reincarnate
8 – Mage
9 – Skinner
10 – Practical
Move
11 – Disarm
12 – Jace’s Road
13 – Sun Thunder
14 – Angel of Empire
15 – Forte
16 – Raise Cain
17 – Derma Sotogake
18 – Rocket Can
19 – Lord Miles
20 – Continuar
21 - Cyclone Mischief 22 - Mandarin Hero 23- King Russell
I’ll begin with the Morning
Line Favorite (3-1) #15 Forte– I believe this horse has a
legitimate chance to become only the 2nd horse in history (following
American Phoaroh) to win the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and the Triple Crown – the
Kentucky Derby is, in my humble opinion, his to lose.
Forte has won 6 out of 7
lifetime races, including four Grade I Stakes races and a Grade II stakes race.
His only "non-win" was in July 2022.
Forte runs with the consistency of a computer
simulation – He breaks well, he runs in traffic with poise and he closes like a modish bad boss from Glengarry Glen Ross!
He will find his spot near the top of the pack for most of the race
and then turn it on for the win once he hits the final stretch.
He deserves to be the favorite
– he has a solid post position and the leading Rider in the US - Irad
Ortiz, Jr. (who has never won a Kentucky Derby).
For a look at how Forte runs, here's the Florida Derby (including #8
Mage and #21 (AE) Cyclone Mischief.
The next favorite is #5 Tapit Thrice currently set at 5-1 –
(when I say his name it makes me think of the song Knock Three Times on the
ceiling if you want me…..c’mon, Tony Orlando & Dawn?!?!)
You people don't know what you're missing!
I digress – Tapit Thrice has
won 4 out of 5 lifetime races – but his only loss was his debut race. Tapit
Thrice usually prefers to sit at the back of the pack and make a late bolt
for the wire.
If this horse can run his race and find a gap to burst through
coming out of the turn – he "could" be plenty dangerous.
However here are my concerns
with Tapit Thrice – I’m not a big fan of Blue Grass Stakes Winners to win the
Kentucky Derby – they haven’t won a Kentucky Derby since 1991. And while he
certainly has a solid post – I don’t think it’s going to help him much
considering his racing style, I believe a post further out would have
been preferable.
I think he’s going to get
swallowed up in traffic early….and trapped behind a wall of horses late. His
Jockey Luis Saez (2nd best in the US) has also never “technically”
won a Kentucky Derby – (he and Maximum Security were disqualified in 2019).
A look at Tapit Thrice and #2 Verifying in the Blue Grass Stakes:
#14 Angel of Empire is a morning line of (8-1) and his rider is
Flavien Prat – who has one Kentucky Derby Victory (2019 -- the one Saez could
have, should have had). Angel of Empire
has 4 lifetime wins in 6 attempts and is, most notably, the Arkansas Derby
Winner.
Angel of Empire will be on the
immediate inside post of the favorite Forte – and Flavien Prat could definitely
use that to their advantage OR he could just ignore the favorite and run his
best race.
Usually the outside horses will
slowly mesh with the rest of the pack to save some ground before the first
turn……I’ll be watching to see if Prat attempts to keep Forte on the outside as
long as possible – maybe throw off the Favorite's game a little bit. Horse
racing at its finest is a Chess Match being played at 40 mph.
Also Forte’s Rider Irad Ortiz
could anticipate Prat using some strategy early and could pull Forte back early
or see if they can cut Angel of Empire off before the 1st turn……could
be something – may be nothing at all - but at the beginning of the race....that's where I'll be focused.
Angel of Empire will likely
attempt to keep close (and preferably inside) to Forte and “hope” they have the
best gap on the inside to shoot when they hit the final stretch.
If Forte has a bad trip – I
believe Angel of Empire has the best chance to win.
See Arkansas Derby – also
including #23 (AE) King Russell and #7 Reincarnate:
There is a lot of buzz around # 17 Derma Sotogake the Japanese bred
horse who won impressively at the UAE Derby (United Emirates). He has 4 wins
out of a lifetime 8 races – but more to the point - he has won 3 out of his
last 4.
There have been several years
in the past when I’ve thought a UAE Derby winner might take home the Kentucky
Roses (or at least challenge)…..however the highest finish we’ve seen in the
past ten years has been 7th place.
A Japanese Bred horse has never
won a Kentucky Derby and neither has a UAE Derby winner - Derma Sotogake is both.
Currently I think this horse is
going to be overbet – if he swings up to 20-1 – I’m more interested.
UAE Derby – also includes #20 Continuar (JPN):
#2 Verifying (15-1) has an
ugly starting spot – but if this horse gets incredibly lucky he could own the rail
and have a clear shot to the finish. Will need a lot of luck to win – but could
break the top 4.
#4 Confidence Game (20-1) – won the Rebel Stakes in February and
hasn’t been heard from since. This is a pure long shot play – solid post and “who
knows” what this horse can do at this point. Long layoffs are sometimes great…..usually
not in the KY Derby….but this horse is a mystery at this point.
#6 Kingsbarns (12-1) the Louisiana Derby winner has a solid
starting post and is undefeated in 3 starts. Despite the victory in the LA Derby – the pace
was slow and it just didn’t impress. Flavien Prat was his jockey for the
Louisiana Derby and he’s riding a different horse….so that should tell you
something. Give me 30-1 here and I’d be more interested.
With this spot he could finish
in the Top 4.
#8 Mage – (15-1) has only 3 lifetime races and has finished 2nd,
4th, and 1st. Mage finished immediately behind the
favorite Forte in the Arkansas Derby – I think he could be the most realistic "Longshot" of the bunch.
Our 38 Star Flag
My thinking is – that he has a
very solid post position – there’s a chance Mage has a higher ceiling than some
of the more experienced horses….we may have not seen this horse’s best race…..there’s
also a chance that the lack of seasoning spooks Mage and he finishes in the
back of the pack!
He’ll need a little luck as
well – but if the others stall in traffic and he gets an opening – he could summon
a victory in the Kentucky Derby. But I need these kinds of odds to keep my
interest.
One important Kentucky Derby
Trend to point out – Since 1882, only one horse (Justify = 2018) won the
Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old…..that's 1882…meaning when the US
only had 38 states!
Kingbarns and Mage did NOT run
as two year olds.
Entering the Kentucky Derby due to the many scratches is #22 Mandarin Hero - who finished 2nd behind Practical Move in the Santa Anita Derby. Out of lifetime 6 races this horse has 4 Wins and 2 Places. I think this horse has potential to land in the Top 4. This is a good horse that will be able to use this outside post to his advantage and may find a way to make you some money at 20-1.
Here’s how I see the race
playing out –
#2 Verifying.#6 Kingsbarns and #7 Reincarnate will look to set the early pace.
Usually in these races one of
the longshots goes on a suicidal pace…..and I usually know who it’s going to be….but
this year I’m not sure......after a 10th glace I think it could be #7 Reincarnate and/or #21 Cyclone Mischief .... although that will be A LOT to ask from a horse posted at #21.
#14 Angel of Empire, #17 Derma Sotogake and #22 Mandarin Hero will slowly blend into the pack and begin to
work their ways towards the middle front.
#5 Tapit Trice – will likely be at the back of the pack…..perhaps
even dead last until they reach the 2nd turn.
If #2 Verifying can possess the rail and have an open avenue to the
final stretch – he poses a threat…..BUT odds are he gets swallowed up by the pack
– and can’t find a way out, until it’s too late.
#6 Kingsbarns – I think he has a better shot at placing himself in
the perfect spot – but I think the more talented horses will push him and he’ll fade. I think likely coming out of the final turn is where
the King runs out of steam.
#14 Angel of Empire - if he can make the best move coming out of the final turn, either the perfect gap to burst through or making his way wide, but not having to go as wide as Derma Sotogake or Tapit Trice I now (after 5 scratches think it could be his race to lose).
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah has scratched from the 149th KY Derby.
#17 Derma Sotogake – I've had a change of heart with this horse - primarily because I believe his post position has improved with so many scratches in this race. I don't trust this horse to win the race - but could DEFINITELY be a top 3 horse.
Finally #5 Tapit Trice – I’m just not a fan of a Bluegrass Stakes winner
AND a late charging horse in the Kentucky Derby. I think he falls to the back
of the pack – and makes a huge sweeping outside charge at the end and then he
fades.
His Jockey is one of the best and may
have Tapit Trice weave through traffic and find an inside hole to punch and I
could be looking at having a big swing and a miss here….but I’m going to trust
what I’ve seen over the past two decades. My gut tells me Tapit Trice comes out flat and finishes closer to 6th.
Closing Speedlikes: Angel of Empire, Mage, Mandarin Hero
History advices to toss out Kingsbarn, Mage, Tapit Trice, Derma Sotogake and Mandarin Hero as possible winners...however with so many great horses suddenly scratched it's very possible we see History "made" today or at least a very RARE winner from an unexpected Prep Race.
Leave it to Horse Racing to have a remarkable story:
Rich
Strike an 80-1 longshot…..entering one of the biggest races in the world as an
(AE, also eligible) --- placed in the furthest gate spot imaginable (#21)…..and no one gave this horse a second glance…..Then he’s given the
perfect guidance by rider Sonny Leon in a dramatic come from behind (really out
of nowhere) Kentucky Derby victory!!
And in what seems like hours the story unravels into ---
Ownership decides to bow out of the Triple Crown…they believe it's good for the Rich Strike -- a “business” decision.
And
Sonny Leon has been suspended from racing for four days due to reckless racing BEFORE the Kentucky Derby.
The “Business” decision not to race in the Preakness has
me asking:
Are Ownerships becoming less interested in the current format of the Triple
Crown because they’re concerned with running a horse 3 times in close to 5
weeks? Personally I agree.
For years I’ve been saying Horse
Racing needs to embrace change and give the sport a chance to flourish.....but sadly this sport wants to cling to it's traditions.
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah believes there should be a Triple Tiara available if Secret Oath wins
However, perhaps Ownership is concerned that a shorter distance (the
Preakness) may give them less chance to win and hurt this Horse’s Value? It's possible.
From a money stand point - Before the Kentucky Derby victory Rich Strike
had earned $ 72,500…..even a 4th place finish in the Preakness would
give him $90,000 more.
Whatever the reason – come Saturday, the Triple Crown bid
will be over……however “should” it be??
Personally I believe if Secret Oath, winner of the Kentucky Oaks, wins the Preakness the Triple Crown should still be available to her! But then again Secret Oath is my girl!
Let’s begin my Preakness rant with #8 Epicenter – as I mentioned in my
Kentucky Derby write up many believed that Epicenter was the best three year
old in the country – He and Joel Rosario ran a blazing early pace in the KY
Derby and hoped to outlast the pack – but Rich Strike weaved through traffic
for an improbable victory.
Epicenter has finished 1st in 4 out his last 6
races and 2nd in the other two. He and Rosario are the 6-5 favorites.
In my opinion, Winning the Kentucky Derby is about the
skill to navigating the huge field and luck, in the Belmont it’s about handling
the Endurance……and in the Preakness it’s usually just about being the best
horse…..Epicenter is considered the best by many and these odds seem about
right.
#1 Simplification – Finished 4th in the
Kentucky Derby and with Rich Strike (1st) and Zandon (3rd)
out of the picture, one would imagine this horse has a shot to move up at least
two spaces and finish in the second spot. With the exception of the Kentucky
Derby this horse has “hit the board” (Finishing First through 3rd) –
6 out of 7 times lifetime….and his 5th place finish was in Oct.
2021.
There has been a change of Jockey to John Velazquez for
this race. Velazquez has never raced with Simplification……will the change be
for the better or worse?
#2 Creative Minister – Three lifetime races (2 Wins and a
Place) – Good News / Bad News with this horse is that he hasn’t raced against
Stakes Caliber horses – however he is VERY dangerous.
Now all I can imagine is Creative Minister bouncing down the track to this beat!
He will look to grab the rail for most of the race and
then pour on the closing speed at the end. It will be interesting to see if
they try to jump out in front of Simplification OR slide behind him. At 10-1
don’t let him slip off your radar.
**Odd side note – this horse looks like he “HOPS” more
than most horses – he has a bit of a bounce to his stride.
#3 Fenwick – after watching an 80-1 horse clobber my choices
for the Kentucky Derby I’m gun shy to say you should drop this horse…..but
Fenwick has had multiple Trainer swaps and now has a new jockey. He’s going off
at 50-1…..and has 1 victory in 6 races.
#4 Secret Oath – (The Filly) This is Secret Oath’s story –
She won 4 out of 6 races…she won 3 straight races before
entering the Arkansas Derby against the Colts. Secret Oath perhaps stayed too
far off the early lead in the Arkansas Derby and finished 3rd.
Had she won the Arkansas Derby, she likely would have
raced in the Kentucky Derby…..however they decided to run her in the Kentucky Oaks and she won. (The Kentucky Oaks is the
Filly version of the Derby).
I really like her in this race
– and I believe she should be the 2nd favorite.
However the morning line has #5 Early Voting as the 2nd
favorite. Early Voting finished 2nd in a nail biter in the Wood
Memorial in April. Early Voting enters this race with fresh legs compared to
the rest of these horses…..and he also may be in contention to be the early
leader.
Early Voting was caught late by Mo Donegal in the Wood
Memorial – and there are several solid late closers in this race as well….and
this is a longer race than the Wood Memorial. Could fresh legs be the difference?
#6 Happy Jack – Finished 14th in the Kentucky
Derby. Happy Jack gets a new jockey Tyler Gaffalione on board…..and I think
Happy Jack has a shot at 4th here…..but he’s just Happy that the
field has been cut in more than half.
I'm a very HAPPY JACK to have won my Tawny Port bet in the KY Derby!! Should I bet a bottle of Armagnac?? An average bottle is about $80
#7 Armagnac – So here’s a strange betting anomaly ---
Armagnac has a morning line of 12-1 and Happy Jack is going off at 30-1. Happy Jack finished ahead of this horse in the
last two times they raced.
Armagnac also has a new rider – Irad Ortiz…..I seriously
don’t know why you’d take this horse at 12-1 over Happy Jack at 30-1??
I mean unless you really love Brandy and prefer a “Sad”
Jack??
#9 Skippylongstocking – He’s a workhorse – he has 9
career races and has finished on the board in 5 of them. Solid all around horse
– and he also has fresher legs having not raced since April – I would be
surprised if this horse finishes better than 3rd.
Here’s how I see the race –
Interesting fight for the rail between Simplification and
Creative Minister – I think Creative Minister will plan to sit back.
I look for Early Voting to take the early lead – and Epicenter,
Secret Oath and Simplification to stay close.
If Early Voting has fresh legs and has found the
distance, him being the 2nd favorite may make sense.
As the round the final turn the question will be are
Epicenter, Secret Oath, Simplification and/or Creative Minister gassed from
only having two weeks off? It’s very likely one of them will be.
I think Epicenter is the best horse in this field – but I’m
rooting for Secret Oath to find an inside path and finish in the Winners Circle
– and I’m looking for either Simplification or Creative Minister to Place while
Epicenter finishes third.
Closing Speed likes: Secret
Oath, Epicenter, Creative Minister
But who I like and how I’d bet are slightly different……
$5 Win - #2
$5 Win - #1……(unless this horse slips to 4-1 or less paying odds)
Churchill Downs –
May 7th, 2022 Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST) Kentucky Derby Purse - $3,000,000 Distance - One And One Quarter Miles Surface - Dirt
1 – Mo Donegal
2 – Happy Jack
3 – Epicenter
4 – Summer Is Tomorrow
5 – Smile Happy
6 – Messier
7 – Crown Pride
8 – Charge It
9 – Tiz the Bomb
10 – Zandon
11 – Pioneer of Medina
12 – Taiba
13 – Simplification
14 – Barber Road
15 – White Abarrio
16 – Cyberknife
17 – Classic Causeway
18 – Tawny Port
19 – Zozos
20 – Ethereal Road
What would history tell us?? Please ignore his other big question: "Where are all the Low women at?"
As I look at the field of the 2022 Kentucky Derby - I find myself thinking....what does history tell me?? And every time I write that phrase I think it would help if we imagine Ben Franklin asking....What is history telling us?? **Also Ken Burns just dropped his Ben Franklin Documentary and that is ALWAYS worth a mention!
#1 Mo Donegal – Finished 2nd in the Wood Memorial – however this post position will be very difficult for him to overcome. History tells us that this horse get swallowed up early by the field and remains boxed in until it’s far too late.
#2 Happy Jack – Finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby, but will likely get swallowed up by the field as well.
Ah...the Mid 90's -- when we were about to get Spice Girled.
#3 Epicenter - Many Horse Racing enthusiasts believe Epicenter is the best 3 year old in the country. He’s won 4 out of the last 5 Stakes races including a win in the Louisiana Derby. This horse has the potential to take the early lead and likely enough endurance to hold on, AND he has 2013 Kentucky Winning Rider Joel Rosario on board.
His post isn’t great – and "History tells us" that the Louisiana Derby Winners have only produced two Kentucky Derby Winners –
Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996.
The morning odds have him as the second favorite – and if he gets out of the gate well, he could be impossible to catch……but you have to wonder if this horse has seen enough “real” competition.
Here's a look at the Louisiana Derby (with Zozos and Pioneer of Medina)
#4 Summer is Tomorrow – finished 2nd behind #7 Crown Pride – in the UAE Derby -- I’ll be the first one to say I used to get excited to see UAE Derby contenders enter the KY Derby – but since 2000 – 5th is the best a UAE Derby contender has finished.
Summer is Tomorrow has early speed and may push Epicenter. But he’ll fade.
Crown Pride can close – but the UAE Winners have never helped me out and in fact, most often they come out flat….finishing in the bottom 4th.
**History tells me we can knock out these two horses.
#5 Smile Happy - has finished 2 behind both #10 Zandon and #3 Epicenter in his last two consecutive races. Solid early speed, he has the same Jockey (Corey Lanerie) that he’s had for the last 3 races and he’s got a solid post position. One other thought – his last victory was at Churchill Downs.
Morning odds have him at a tempting 20-1 odds – but the question is his ability to make this distance.
#6 Messier – Going into the Santa Anita Derby, many people (including myself) thought Messier would exit that race the victor AND the Kentucky Derby favorite – and it would certainly help that he has Jockey John Velazquez on board who has won 3 out of the last 11 Kentucky Derby’s --- the number would be 4 out of 11 if Medina Spirit would have retained last year’s victory (but that’s another story).
**Instead Messier faded in the Santa Anita Derby and #12 Taiba passed him like he was standing still.
He has a great post – a fantastic jockey – but has Placed twice out of his last three races. Another 2nd place finish is where I see him.
#8 Charge It – finished 2nd behind #15 White Abarrio in the Florida Derby – and could have easily taken the win….but due to some late wobbling from the leader and some indecision he failed to finish strongly.
I think Charge It – has a LOT of potential especially at 20-1.
What I don’t love is he only has three races – and 1 Win in his lifetime.
I think he could position himself at the top of the pack and finish with strength – but I think he’ll need some luck to pull out a victory here.
#9 Tiz the Bomb – 5 wins in 8 races – win victories in his last two races. However he finished 6th in February in the Holy Bull behind White Abarrio, Simplification and Mo Donegal – Very solid horse, but hasn’t been competitive against some of these other horses.
#10 Zandon – I did a double take when I saw that Zandon was the morning line favorite – having won 2 out 4 races lifetime. His “big” race is his most recent race (and victory) the Blue Grass Stakes, which I will tell you I usually “throw out” that race, because it’s just a funky indicator.
In short - History tells us the Blue Grass Stakes aren't a great Prep Indicator.
His race before that he finished 3rd behind Epicenter and Smile Happy in Louisiana.
And he’s the Favorite?? **My guess is come Saturday morning he'll be the 2nd favorite.
His Jockey Flavien Prat is the real deal – and won the 2019 Kentucky Derby – (although technically he finished 2nd and won due to a DQ….it’s been a rough three years).
Zandon – has a sweet post position…..but I’m not a believer. I have this horse at say 10-1…..maybe 8-1 with this post??
Here's a look at the Blue Grass Stakes:with Smile Happy:
#11 Pioneer of Medina – has a tendency of finishing in the money, but only has two wins in six attempts and those wins were against lesser talent in Dec. 2021 and January of this year.
#12 Taiba – This horse only has two races under his belt --- and both of them were victories, including the Santa Anita Derby. He has 2018 Kentucky Derby winner Mike “Money” Smith on board and he’s got a great Post!
The two strikes against this horse are:
He was trained by Bob Baffert and has been handed to Tim Yakteen AND he only has two races. I have a "history" of a West Coast Bias...however (recently I've had a history of calling the Winner in the KY Derby, even though two of them were DQ'd.....yes I'm bitter!).
To me this horse should be in the discussion of being a favorite.
**Instead he’s sitting at 12-1.
Here's a look at the Santa Anita Derby with Messier and Happy Jack
#13 Simplification – Out of 7 lifetime races this horse has been in the money 6 times…..and out of that 6 he’s won 3 times. I really like this horse and he should be considered a horse to round out your Trifecta bets…..but when he’s faced top notch talent he hasn’t been able to pull off a victory.
#14 Barber Road – In 8 lifetime races, Barber Road has Placed (finished 2nd) 4 times. This horse deserves to be in the Derby, but unless he finds a new stride on Saturday he’ll be lucky to be in the middle of the pack.
#15 White Abarrio – Winner of the Florida Derby – and he has 4 victories in 5 attempts. …and his morning line odds are??? 10-1….seriously I don’t get it this year.
White Abarrio needed a little bit of swerving to stop Charge It from taking the Fla. Derby victory – but still I trust the Florida Derby as a Prep more than I trust the Bluegrass Stakes....because, you know, history tells me it's a better indicator.
Florida Derby with: Charge It and Simplification
#16 Cyberknife – Winner of the Arkansas Derby – 3 Victories in 6 attempts, but perhaps most importantly 2 straight victories leading up to the Kentucky Derby.
He did finish 6th in the Lecomte Stakes in January against Call Me Midnight and Epicenter – but that was in January.
He has the 2021 Kentucky Derby Winning Jockey Florent Geroux (who won because Medina Spirt was later DQ).
Cyberknife has a morning line of 20-1…….I REALLY don’t understand this morning line - my guess is Cyberknife is 8-1, or 6-1 at the bell.
Arkansas Derby with Barber Road (and Kentucky Oaks competitor Secret Oath....Secret Oath is my GIRL!)
#17 Classic Causeway – After back to back wins in Tampa – Classic Causeway finished 11th in the Florida Derby, and his “usual” jockeys Irad Ortiz and Jose Ortiz chose to ride different horses.
I think he’ll go for the early lead and fade before they hit the last turn.
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah enjoys pairing a Tawny Port with Kudu and a medley of Red Cabbage, Marrows and Yellow Peppers
#18 Tawny Port – First of all….I love the name, and the libation! This horse has 3 victories in 5 races….but wasn’t able to really compete against horses like Epicenter, Tiz the Bomb or Smile Happy.
A fun side bet with a friend is choosing whether this horse will finish in the top 11 – or 12 thru 20. Loser buys a Tawny Port for the table!
#19 Zozos – Great Early speed and finished just behind Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby, which is the only race out of 3 that he didn’t win. Very tough post for this horse.
I think he makes an early dash for it – if he can make it to the lead and to the rail by the beginning of the first turn, he’s got an outside shot….but that’s a TON to ask.
I think he runs wide and fades early.
#20 Ethereal Road – 1 win in 7 races – doesn’t have the speed to compete early – will likely go flat when asked to go 9 wide in the final turn.
He would need to position himself perfectly and find the perfect gap. Needs a LOT of help. Too much to ask.
Here’s how I see the race playing out –
***If Epicenter can break out of the gate well and make the first turn close to the lead and on the rail, this race could be over once he hits the first turn – if he’s able to run his race, I don’t know if anyone will be able to catch him!
HOWEVER there is a risk of him getting boxed IN before the first turn and there’s also a risk of him rushing to the lead and not having enough stamina to finish strongly.
Smile Happy could be “THE” horse that makes the early move to box Epicenter in – especially if Smile Happy breaks out of the gate best.
Messier has a much better opportunity to own the early lead and dictate his own ride. But he faded HARD in the Santa Anita? His path to victory may be taking a strong enough early lead and hoping that the traffic is too thick behind him to catch him in the final furlongs – but I don’t think his luck holds out here.
Charge It is in an excellent position to sit just off of Messier’s shoulders and surpass him late – this horse has EVERYTHING going for him for a 20/1.
Zandon – I think they pull back on Zandon and position him late – He’ll run towards the top / middle of the pack and make his move late. BUT I think Zandon goes wide and flat – and fails to make a serious run.
Taiba, White Abarrio and Cyberknife – Santa Anita Derby Winner, Florida Derby Winner and the Arkansas Derby winner – will melt into the pack carefully going into the first turn.
I think Taiba will push to be further up than White Abarrio and Cyberknife –
The BIG question is, which one of these horses will panic and rush the first mile and leave them gassed in the end --- and which one of these horses may get lost behind a WALL of horses and have no gap to break free.
In the end I think Epicenter fails to take the early lead at the rail – Messier leads the pack early but is drained in the final furlongs – Charge it is “right there” and the crowd goes bezerk – but it’s Cyberknife and Taiba making the late charges – and Taiba takes the victory!
Closing Speedlikes: Taiba, Charge It and Cyberknife
$5 Win/Place #12 Taiba or #16 Cyberknife, which ever offers the best odds!! = $10
$2 Across the Board - #8 – Charge It = $6
$2 Across the Board #12 – Taiba = $6
$2 Across the Board #16 – Cyberknife = $6
Now if everyone will excuse me I'm going to grab some popcorn and watch the movie "kind of" based on the 1924 Louisiana and Kentucky Derby Winner Black Gold! No seriously I think this movie is "kind" of based on this horse!
Belmont Park RACE 11 - 6:49 PM Belmont S. (Grade I) Purse - $1,500,000
Distance - One And one ½ Miles Surface – Dirt
1 – Bourbonic
2 – Essential Quality
3 – Rombauer
4 – Hot Rod Charlie
5 – France Go de Ina
6 – Known Agenda
7 – Rock Your World
8 – Overtook
Writing about the 2021 Belmont Stakes feels more
like I’m writing a Sherlock Holmes novel:
THE CASE OF THE BAFFLING BELMONT !!!!
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah questions how difficult this Belmont is or if the writer just enjoys alliteration.
In the past I have been far more comfortable choosing my pick for this race – but I believe this year the race may be much trickier to forecast.
We’ll start with our suspects:
#1 Bourbonic – in my Kentucky Derby offering this is what
I wrote:
***This horse should ABSOLUTELY be on your radar for the
Belmont Stakes!
Bourbonic finished a distant 13th in the
Kentucky Derby – however I believe this horse is the best built for this
distance, AND Bourbonic is back on his home dirt in New York. He’s currently
listed at 15/1 odds for a race I believe he’s got the stamina for – in fact, I
think Bourbonic is the rare case of a horse that prefers this kind of distance
– the problem is – the Belmont Stakes
are usually the only time a horse runs a mile and one half.
#2 Essential Quality – skipped the Preakness after
finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Essential Quality was the favorite in
the Kentucky Derby (morning odds have him as the favorite in the Belmont) –
obviously many Horse Racing Bettors and Enthusiasts believe he’s still the best
3 year old of the crop.
Was the Kentucky Derby just bad luck??
Maybe the size of the race overwhelmed Essential Quality
--- OR is this horse only dominant at 1
1/8th miles or less??
I would not be surprised if the strategy for this horse
is to take the early lead, ride the rail and just hope to lug his way home ---
I’ve seen it work several times in the Belmont.
For my money – I think another horse will find a way to surpass him
coming down the stretch.
Perhaps that horse will be Preakness winner #3 Rombauer –
who stormed the final furlongs and looked downright dominant at the wire!!
I’ll be the first to admit – I was shocked.....I didn’t see anything on his resume that indicated he
could contend…..but if you watch the Preakness finale again --- there’s little
reason to suspect he won’t pull away with a huge win in the Belmont.
What makes his situation interesting however (and this Belmont so Baffling) is that his Jockey
in the Preakness (Flavien Prat) will be riding and guiding #4 Hot Rod Charlie
--- to make matters even stranger, John R. Velazquez (Rombauer’s Jockey in the
Belmont) has never ridden this horse in a race.
A bizarre bit of trivia for Rombauer is that in 8 races
he has had 7 different jockeys?!?!
Here they are folks...all of Rombauers Riders Who will ride him next?? It could be you!!
Velazquez is a fantastic rider, he’s won the Belmont
Stakes twice --- but you have to question, what kind of working
relationship will they have come race day?
#4 Hot Rod Charlie – finished 3rd in the
Kentucky Derby with Flavien Prat aboard and didn’t compete in the
Preakness. Currently he’s going off as
the “third” favorite with 7/2 odds.
Hot Rod Charlie may also attempt to go wire to wire ---
my gut tells me that if he ends up on the outside of Essential Quality and they
both try to lug it out for the final ¼ mile – Essential Quality should be able
to hold him off……but this is such a strange field – taking the odds on Hot Rod
Charlie would make sense.
#5 France Go de Ina – is the longshot at 30-1 after
finishing 7th in the Preakness. “Maybe” this horse has acclimated to
the US (after racing overseas) and is about to shock the world --- I think this
horse will be lucky to finish in the top 5 – Le Pass.
#6 Known Agenda – at 6/1, I think people are doubting
this horse because he hasn’t won since March and because of a horrible starting
spot in the Kentucky Derby. It’s more like Forgotten Agenda!! I believe this
horse is poised for a very solid race…..he’s had some bad luck – but has
everything pointing in the right direction in the Belmont.
#7 Rock Your World – I had this horse finishing 2nd
behind Medina Spirit in my Kentucky Derby post….instead this horse finished 17th!!
So will the “Real” Rock Your World please stand up…..please
stand up??
This horse enjoyed 3 victories in Santa Anita – including
defeating the Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit at Santa Anita…..my gut tells
me this horse will look to compete early and fade fast.
I’m looking for him to tag along with Essential Quality
and Hot Rod Charlie.
#8 Overtook – recently finished 3rd here at
Belmont Park in the Peter Pan Stakes. His
20/1 odds I think are very much worth a look in a Trifecta bet. Overtook may
need some luck and hope some of the early runners fade….but in this race I think
that’s very possible.
Here’s how I
picture the race –
Bourbonic will drop WAAAAAAYYYY back --- he will begin to pick up steam after everyone else hits the middle of the last turn.
Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie will set the pace,
I think Rock Your World will be in the early top 3, and stalk the lead. My hunch is that they’re all watching what
Essential Quality will do……I’ll be interested because they may see if Essential
Quality can run a faster mile than expected and just hope to have a strong
enough lead that everyone else won’t be able to make a final push!
Rombauer and Known Agenda will work the middle of the
pack – both looking for their spots.
Overtook is a bit of a mystery to me – he may run closer to
the lead or may hang back with Rombauer and Known Agenda.
As they approach the final turn I suspect Rombauer will begin making his move – I think Known Agenda will follow…..at this point do
either of them have the stamina to overtake the leaders?
Have the leaders put enough space behind them to lug
home??
And FINALLY Bourbonic has woken up and is looks like a
horse on fire from about 8 to 10 lengths back.
Closing Speed likes: Known Agenda, Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, Bourbonic
If I’m betting $40 – this is what I like:
$5 Win - #1 - Bourbonic (only at odds in the 15/1 area)
$5 Win - #8 Overtook (only at odds in the 20/1 area)
$1 Box Exacta – 1, 2, 6
$1 Box Exacta – 1,2, 4, 6
The Case of the Baffling Belmont was all so Elementary!
Pimlico Race Track RACE 13 - 6:47 PM Preakness S. (Grade I) Purse - $1,000,000 Distance - One And 3/16ths Mile Surface – Dirt
1 – Ram 2 – Keepmeinmind 3 – Medina Spirit 4 – Crowded Trade 5 – Midnight Bourbon 6 – Rombauer 7 – France Go de Ina 8 – Unbridled Honor 9 – Risk Taking 10 – Concert Tour
After a controversial victory in the Kentucky Derby #3 Medina Spirit has been given the thumbs up to race in the Preakness and from where I’m sitting he looks poised to make a legit run at the Triple Crown!
Nothing embarrassing about needing an antifungal medication...(with a hint of steroids).
Medina Spirit has a lot going for him in this race – a stellar opening spot, and several top contenders have decided to skip the Preakness – leaving a less challenging field….but it's still far from a cakewalk.
Kentucky Derby:
#1 Ram has enjoyed two consecutive victories, has a lifetime 2 wins in 9 starts. Ram will look to sit back in the middle of the pack and make a late charge – but I think he’s out of his league here.
#2 Keepmeinmind – Finished a respectable 7th in the Kentucky Derby – and I think this horse is much better than his 1 victory in 7 attempts might indicate. Keepmeinmind also likes to make a late charge – and certainly has a chance to hit the board in Baltimore.
#4 Crowded Trade – Only has three career races – but had an impressive 2nd place finish in the Gotham Stakes and a Show in the Wood Memorial. Once again this is a horse looking to lay back deep until the final turn and then charge for home. Didn’t get the best trip at the Wood Memorial, AND may still be learning how to win races - At 10-1 I like the looks of this horse.
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah is always a little sad he's not sipping some elusive Bourbon at the mention of Midnight Bourbon.
#5 Midnight Bourbon – Solid all around horse, with perhaps one of the coolest names ever. That aside this horse has a few things going for him – outside of the Kentucky Derby he’s been in the top 3, 7 out of 8 races – and with the exception of Medina Spirit all of the horses who were in front of him are taking the weekend off.
**He’s the third favorite at 5-1 – would need the odds to be closer to 8-1 before I’d be interested.
#6 Rombauer – This horse has picked up a lot of long shot attention – he has 2 wins in 6 races – with a respectable 3rd place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes and a 5th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile - I don’t see this horse really competing for a win here – but could definitely steal a 3rd or 4th spot.
Rombauer may actually attempt to run with Medina Spirit close to the lead. Hasn’t flashed “amazing” early speed – but has shown enough.
#7 France Go de Ina – Coming from Tokyo and the United Emirates -- this horse offers a lot of unknowns. I’ll be the first to admit I usually give WAY to much credit to UAE horses in the Triple Crown races…..and this horse only finished 6th at the UAE Derby. He has 2 lifetime victories in 4 starts (both in Japan).
#8 Unbridled Honor – At 15-1 I like this horse a LOT. He’s is also a horse that may like to wait in the back and close late – however in his last race (finishing 2nd in the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes behind King Fury) – he didn’t get the best trip and he was running in mud.
He only has 1 win in 5 career races – and I think it would be a huge surprise if this horse pulled off a victory – but I like him in the mix for the top 3.
Stonestreet Lexington Stakes:
#9 Risk Taking – Won the Withers Stakes in February and then finished 7th in the Wood Memorial. He’s also at 15-1….and maybe this horse is primed to make a major bounce back here – but I think he’s also out of his league here.
#10 Concert Tour was the 1/9 favorite (yeah, you read that correctly) in the Arkansas Derby --- challenged the early speed and was passed in the final furlong by Super Stock to finish 3rd in the Arkansas Derby…..(keep in mind he didn’t manage to pass the horse he stalked for the entire race).
In a race FILLED with closers – you have to wonder if Concert Tour has the distance in him?? OR did he just fall victim to a speed trap in the Arkansas.
Arkansas Derby:
Here’s how I see the race unfolding:
Medina Spirit and Concert Tour will lead the way – the question at this point is will Concert Tour attempt to set the pace? And if he does will that result in tiring both of these horses out before they hit the stretch ---- (setting it up perfectly for all of those deep closers).
But I think Medina Spirit will run his race – I like Midnight Bourbon being able to work in the middle of the pack, likely with plenty of room to maneuver. I also think Unbridled Honor will ride along with Bourbon….. while the rest of the late closers hang out in the back of the pack.
An Unbridled Honor rode along with a Midnight Bourbon... I think I may have just written a country music lyric?
When we hit the final turn – we’ll see if Medina Spirit and Concert Tour have anything left to offer.
This is where I think Midnight Bourbon and Unbridled Honor make a break for it.
Closing Speed likes:
Medina Spirit, Unbridled Honor, Midnight Bourbon, Concert Tour
Churchill Downs –
May 1st, 2021 Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST) Kentucky Derby Purse - $3,000,000 Distance - One And One Quarter Miles Surface - Dirt
1 – Known Agenda
2 – Like the King
3 – Brooklyn Strong
4 – Keepmeinmind
5 – Sainthood
6 – O Besos
7 – Mandaloun
8 – Medina Spirit
9 –Hot Rod
Charlie
10 – Midnight Bourbon
11 – Dynamic One
12 – Helium
13 – Hidden Stash
14 – Essential Quality
15 – Rock Your World
16 – King Fury(SCR)
17 – Highly Motivated
18 – Super Stock
19 – Soup and Sandwich
20 – Bourbonic
** I've written a quick snapshot of all of the horses – but #8 is
where it gets interesting.
Tough luck for #1
Known Agenda who drew the rail – this horse is a quality horse and
definitely has potential to win big races down the road – HOWEVER this post
remind me of 2010 with Lookin’ At Lucky, who was an exceptional horse but got
swallowed up early and managed a 6th place finish. I would need 30-1 odds here before I would
even consider it….and the morning line was 6-1. Hard Pass!
#2 Like the King – 3 wins in 6 Starts – I think the competition is
too much for him here.
#3 Brooklyn Strong – 3 wins in 5 Starts – but finished 7th
in his last race featuring Winner #20
Bourbonic and 2nd Place #11
Dynamic One.
#4 Keepmeinmind – recently finished 5th in the Blue
Grass Stakes behind Favorite #14
Essential Quality, and 2nd place #17 Highly Motivated. This
horse has finished 4 times in the money out of 6.
I can actually feel this Saint disapproving of that play on words.
#5 Sainthood – Recently finished behind #2 Like the King – one could say he doesn't have a prayer.
#6 O Besos – Fun Trivia – He is the only horse to be sired by a
Kentucky Derby Winner in this field (Orb 2013) – but O Besos hasn’t flashed
that kind of talent so far – finishing recently behind #9 Hot Rod Charlie, #7
Mandaloun and #10 Midnight Bourbon
(Twice). His last victory was in January.
#7 Mandaloun – Beat Midnight Bourbon in the Lecomte, Lost to
Midnight Bourbon in the following race Risen Star and then finished 6th
behind Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon and O Besos. Would need a lot of help
here.
#8 Medina Spirit – Jockey J.R. Velazquez has won three Kentucky
Derby’s, including 2020 onboard Authentic.
This horse has a GREAT Post….however out of 5 Races this horse has only
won 2 and has finished 2nd in the rest. Was expected to take the
Santa Anita Derby, (with my Favorite Life is Good off the derby trail) – but #15 Rock # Your
World stole the show. At 15/1 odds, with this post and this jockey, you
have my attention!
#9 Hot Rod Charlie – Also a great Post – this horse has 2 wins in 7
attempts and looked great in the Louisiana Derby…..HOWEVER, his jockey J.
Rosario will be riding #15 Rock Your
World.
**However the Jockey they have
is Flavien Prat has won the KY Derby before --- winning the controversial 2019 Kentucky Derby.
Louisiana Derby 2021:
#10 Midnight Bourbon – Jockey "Big Money" Mike Smith has a pair of Kentucky
Derby wins – most recently 2018 with Justify. Out of 7 Starts this horse has
hit the Winners circle only twice….however this horse has finished
Win/Place/Show – 7 out of 7. At 20-1 this horse makes a good horse to round out
a Trifecta bet.
#11 Dynamic One – Placed in the Wood Memorial behind #20 Bourbonic – up until the Wood Memorial
this horse had an unimpressive resume. I firmly believe he’s well overmatched
here – howevermaybe this horse is
putting it together at the right time? Would need 50-1 odds before I’d be
interested.
#12 Helium – (Speaking of finding interesting odds) --- DEFINITELY
put this horse on your long shot list. This horse is undefeated in three races
– including the Tampa Bay Derby….and he’s going well under the radar at
50-1.In Tampa he defeated #13 Hidden Stash, who recently finished
4th behind Favorite Essential
Quality and Highly Motivated.
**This Long shot has everything
working for him – he’s still fairly unknown and he’s got the inside spot on
MOST of the more favored horses. I rarely like Long Shots….but this horse may
have just lucked into the Kentucky Derby and could finish dead last…..OR he
could be the unknown factor that SHOCKS Churchhill Downs!!!
High on Helium - Tampa Bay Derby:
#13 Hidden Stash – Hasn’t seen the Winners Circle since November
2020. Solid Horse, will run an admirable race, but I see this horse finishing 3rd
at best.
#14 Essential Quality – Is the “Heavy” Favorite at 2-1. I “should”
love this horse – who is undefeated in 5 Starts including the Juvenile Breeders
Cup. This horse is the picture of poise and maturity for a 3 year old – this Colt
doesn’t “race” he floats to victory.
*** Maybe I’ve got a California
Bias (I really don’t think I do) – maybe I’m just seeing what I “need” to see –
maybe I’ve had too much Midnight Bourbon --- but I think the 2021 Kentucky Derby is the
perfect storm for an upset….and I may be alone on this – but I think this year
is the year NOT to bet the favorite(s) to win.
There’s nothing wrong with this
horse – but after the Juvenile Breeders Cup (which he won handily) – he’s raced
in “gimme” races like the Southwest and Bluegrass…..incidentally I’ve NEVER
trusted the results of the Blue Grass Stakes – and it’s never produced a
Kentucky Derby Winner!! (Closest was Good Magic in 2018 – finished 2nd).
I believe this horse will
finish in the top 3 – but I’m anticipating UPSET!
2020 Breeders Cup
#15 Rock Your World – Winner of the Santa Anita Derby – this horse shocked
So. Cal by hitting the Winner’s Circle on Dirt after having only previously
raced on Turf. Rock Your World is undefeated in 3 races. His Jockey is Jockey
is Joel Rosario (who won the Kentucky Derby on the aforementioned Orb).
Santa Anita Derby 2021:
#16 – King Fury – is scratched – had two victories at Churchhill
Downs - would have been interesting......in the mean time
And because of the disappointing scratch here's a very young girl singing We Will Rock You to a Full Soccer Stadium -- in honor of Rock Your World!
**To quote William Shakespeare - though she be but little, she is fierce!
#17 – Highly Motivated – Last victory was in Nov. 2020 – Solid horse,
definitely should be a consideration for the top 5 --- would need a lot of help
to steal a victory. Recently finished 2nd in the Bluegrass Stakes
behind Essential Quality.
#18 – Super Stock – Won the Arkansas Derby – and has two victories
in 8 races.Will have Jockey Santana aboard again
(from Arkansas). Maybe this horse has finally found his stride?? My thought is
he’s a grinder, good all-around horse but out of his league here.
#19 – Soup and Sandwich – I love this horse’s name…..he has 2 wins
out of 3 Races and finished behind Known Agenda in the Florida Derby.Unfortunately he hasn’t kept the same Jockey
for consecutive races and his last rider Velazquez will be aboard #8 Medina Spirit.
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah is VERY disappointed to have come out of retirement for this kind of Soup and Sandwich!
#20 – Bourbonic – If you like LATE closers, this horse might be
your guy. Bourbonic is in the perfect spot – he’ll likely hang well back for
most of the race and hope to find a hole to burst through in the final
furlongs. This horse has 3 victories in 6 attempts….two of those victories came
with Carmouche on board.
I’m not a big fan of late
charging horses in the Derby – finding a hole through 18 other horses coming
out of the final turn is asking for some substantial luck. However at 30-1 this
horse might be worth the risk.
***This horse should ABSOLUTELY
be on your radar for the Belmont Stakes!
Wood Memorial:
Here’s how I see the race
playing out –
#1 Known Agenda gets buried quick and fast -- he's lost this race even before we've hit 3 full seconds.
#8 Medina Spirit and #9 Hot
Rod Charlie are going to push to set the tempo --- #15 Rock Your World may also challenge to set the pace early -- he may look to stalk the pace a few lengths behind in the first turn.
The “Big” questions are – Will #12 Helium also step up and challenge?
And WHAT exactly will the strategy be for the favorite #14 Essential Quality??
Rock Your World, Medina
Spirit and Hot Rod Charlie – I
believe one of these horses will be the pace setter. ** Midnight Bourbon and Sainthood
could be up front as well.
** If Essential Quality pushes the pace early – this could set up a late
closer like #20 Bourbonic (who will likely be at the very back of the pack until
the middle of the second turn).
** If Essential Quality wrangles for the middle of the pack he could get
jostled in the traffic – setting up the early leads.
** If Rock Your Worldhad to
endure a wide trip he could fade – and if Essential
Quality is stuck in traffic – that opens things up for Medina Spirit / Hot Rod
Charlie / (Maybe) Helium and Bourbonic.
Sometime you’re betting the
best HORSE in the Race – this year, you may be betting the “size” and “strategy”
of the Kentucky Derby.
Closing Speed likes: Medina Spirit, Rock Your World, Midnight
Bourbon (Essential Quality 4th)
