Friday, May 18, 2018

Preakness Stakes 2018


Pimlico  - May 19, 2018
Race 13 - 6:48 PM
Preakness Stakes  (Grade I)
Purse - $1,500,000
Distance - One And Three Sixteenth Miles
Surface – Dirt

1 – Quip
2 – Lone Sailor                                                  
3 – Sporting Chance
4 – Diamond King                                                            
5 – Good Magic                                
6 – Tenfold                                                                        
7 – Justify
8 – Bravazo

Let’s just get this out of the way….. .I am in AWE of Justify.

Image result for shocked batman

I do think #5 Good Magic has a shot at upsetting the heavy favorite #7 Justify. But Good Magic will need the race of his lifetime and luck (either good for him or bad for Justify) to pull it off.

Before you take a look at the Kentucky Derby video below – there are a couple of factors I’d like to point out.

#3 Promises Fulfilled and Justify run the first quarter mile in 22.24 seconds…in the mud.
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
hates cleaning mud
from his fur.

22.24 seconds in the mud – is ABSURD!

Even had there been no rain – and the track had been firm and dry, 22.24 is usually too fast to maintain, if you want to win the Kentucky Derby. Had the track been firm and dry….they likely would have run about a 21.9 (or faster)! 

Again that’s absurd!

If a horse runs THAT fast…THAT early they are very likely to fade

And if you look closely as the announcer says “And there goes Justify” – watch Promises Fulfilled – Going into the final turn he was tied for first …..and then 11 horses pass him – he’s by my estimate, 20 lengths behind Justify before he falls off the backside of the screen, and he’s not the only one.
Flameaway also falls out as they round the final turn.

That’s a HARD Fade…the kind of fade you expect from any horse that runs a 22.24 in the mud at this distance……now compare Promises Fulfilled to Justify….same early race – much different ending.

Again – I’m in awe of Justify.

Related image
Incidentally I'm still watching Archer...but they really need to step up
their game this season.
Bolt D’Oro runs a length or two behind Justify until the final turn – (Bolt D’Oro who had just finished second behind Justify in the Santa Anita Stakes).

If you watch Bolt D’Oro he makes his move coming out of the final turn – but he’s absolutely gassed…..after another furlong or so, you can see him wobbling in the middle of the track….that’s an exhausted horse!

Audible (who finished 3rd) ran the race I expected him too – he found the inside after coming out of the final turn and made a noble effort…..but it’s too late - Justify has a comfortable lead at the finish line. (I wish Audible was making another run at Justify in the Preakness - would have been interesting to see).

Kentucky Derby Video:


Usually I will offer insight on the other horses – but I do believe this is a two horse race – between Good Magic and Justify.

I think #1 Quip could run with the early leaders – but I think he’ll fade if he tries to keep up early….so he likely will end up out of the money.

#8 Bravazo finished 6th and #2 Lone Sailor finished 8th in the Kentucky Derby – I would expect them to finish in the money here…..best case scenario 2nd place, most likely a finish in 3rd and 4th.

Fatigue could play a factor for any of the horses that ran in the KY Derby and return two weeks later for the Preakness - but I still like the KY Derby contenders to do well here.

Good Magic has a couple of things working for him in this race – first it’s a shorter race, which may help…..also Good Magic starts this race on the inside of Justify which should help.

From what I’m reading the forecast calls for rain again – so the track could be very muddy – that doesn’t help anyone, as we’ve already seen how Justify runs in the mud.

**Seriously did you see the final photos – Justify’s Jockey Mike Smith looks pristine – everyone else is covered in mud!

Justify needs to sign on with a Laundry Detergent --- "Your Clothes won't just be fresh and clean.....
they'll be Justified!"

**However if Ownership becomes concerned that Justify could hurt himself on the track (and I have seen this before) they may not let the horse run “his kind of race”. Meaning Ownership could instruct the Jockey to hold the horse back and basically jog the track – it’s unlikely, but it is possible.

**It’s also possible that Good Magic’s ownership becomes concerned about injury and they could jog him.

For Good Magic to win this race I think he’ll have to hope for a slower first half  – instead of a speedy 45.77 half mile (in the mud) – hopefully something closer to 47…or even a 48.

If Justify doesn’t tear the track up in the first half mile – Good Magic may be able to reserve more of his energy and as they come out of the final turn – if Good Magic can establish the inside, he can pick up a few steps on Justify coming out of the turn…..and then hit his next gear and have hopefully “just” enough to beat Justify in a shorter race (shorter than the KY Derby).

It will be a fascinating chess match between Good Magic and Justify to see how they approach the pace of this race --- IF Justify is able to pass Good Magic early, establish the inside AND a comfortable lead – Good Magic will likely finish the same way he did in the Kentucky Derby (or worse).

Closing Speed likes:  Justify, Good Magic, Lone Sailor

Whenever there is a HEAVY Favorite in a race (and Justify will be a heavy favorite) your two choices are to bet against him in that race or (in my opinion) make that horse the Key (or Anchor) in a Pick 3 or Pick 4 bet….(or if you’re feeling lucky – a Pick 6).

If I were betting $20 here’s how I’d do it.

Pick 4 beginning in Race 10 – (includes Races 10,11,12 and 13) = $20

Or Pick 4 Beginning in Race 11 (includes Races 11,12,13, and 14) = $20

If you choose to do a pick 3 beginning with Race 11 – that should be a $5 bet.

A Pick 3 Bet beginning with Race 12 would be a $4 bet.
Race 11 is going to be tough – and Axe Man is less than a sure thing…but I like him enough.

Race 10: 3,4,5,9
Race 11: 1,3,4,7,12
Race 12: #8 Axe man
Race 13: #7 Justify
Race 14: 1,3,5,7

Saturday, May 5, 2018

Kentucky Derby 2018


Churchill Downs  – May 5th, 2018
Race 12 - 6:50 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface - Dirt


1 – Firenze Fire
2 – Free Drop Billy
3 – Promises Fulfilled
4 – Flameaway
5 – Audible
6 – Good Magic
7 – Justify
8 – Lone Sailor
9 –  Hofburg
10 – My Boy Jack
11 – Bolt D’oro
12 – Enticed
13 – Bravazo
14 –Mendelssohn
15 – Instilled Report
16 - Magnum Moon
17 – Solomini
18 – Vino Rosso
19 – Nobel Indy
20 – Combatant
21 – (AE)  Blended Citizen
 

The 144th Kentucky Derby could be the most talented field of three year old horses I’ve seen…..well, ever.

Justify enters this race as the morning line favorite --- however it would not surprise me if UAE Derby winner #14 Mendelssohn becomes the favorite at the start of the race – take a look at his last start:


For those of you who don’t follow horse racing much – the UAE Derby is equal in purse money to the Kentucky Derby (2 Mill), so it’s not like this horse just clobbered a bunch of nobodies.

However…..there are a couple of very interesting strikes against this horse --- the UAE Derby is held in the Middle East….and this horse just got to Kentucky this past Thursday……I can’t imagine this horse isn’t due for some major jet lag!!


I have boots on the ground that tell me Mendelssohn looks ready --- however a UAE Derby winner has never won a Kentucky Derby (granted the UAE Derby is only 18 years old). Most UAE Derby winners don’t even come close…..still you can’t help but be intimidated with that Romp – that being said, Mendelssohn has won 4 out of 7 races….which is great, except two of his rivals this Saturday are undefeated.

The Next Prep race I’d like to look at is the Wood Memorial – where #18 Vino Rosso found the winner’s circle. Other contenders in this race are: #12 Enticed and #1 Firenze Fire.


Unfortunately for Firenze Fire he starts off the Kentucky Derby against the rail, and far better horses than he have been avalanched upon before the first turn and not been able to get out from under the wall of horses. I expect the same here.

Enticed – fades hard before they reach the final turn in this race….and the KY Derby is a longer race, so he’s not likely to pull off a victory (however Enticed could play a key factor in this race).

Finally Vino Rosso finishes strong….that being said I think Vino Rosso will need a lot of help to win against these other horses  - his post position isn’t much help.

Next let’s take a look at the Louisiana Derby which featured #8 Lone Sailor, #13 Bravaso,  #10 My Boy Jack and #19 Noble Indy.


Lone Sailor and Noble Indy put up a great fight for the finish line…..and with a slightly different trip I think they could have swapped finishes….My Boy Jack closes after going (by my eye) 11 wide and still finds a way to challenge…..meanwhile Bravaso finishes 8th.

In my opinion these results are very similar to the Wood Memorial – some very solid horses here, but I don’t know if they have the resources to contend with the major players in this race.

***My Boy Jack did follow up after this race with a victory in the Lexington Stakes – and a lot of people seem to be stoked about this horse, I’m assuming because he’s a late closer. Truth be told I watched the Lexington Stakes and a horse by the name of Pony Up can “seriously” close….Pony Up didn’t qualify for the KY Derby, but I’ll be watching out for that horse.

Let’s move on to the Blue Grass Stakes – where 2017 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Champion #6 Good Magic picked up a victory against fellow contenders #2 Free Drop Billy and #4 Flameaway.


First of all, these horses all have very good post positions – however The Blue Grass Stakes year in and year out has been kind of a weird race – good horses often run poorly there – average horses will sometimes look unstoppable…..I mean it’s like a box of chocolates up in here – you never know what you’re going to get.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
is unhappy about coming out
of retirement for a
Forrest Gump Call back.
Coming into 2018 Good Magic looked like the “one” to beat….and then he finished 3rd in the Fountain of Youth, and the Blue Grass Stakes win is solid but leaves me unconvinced.

The one thing I noticed most about this race is how well Good Magic stayed on the rail coming out of the final turn….as you watch these next few races you’ll see dominant horses leave themselves vulnerable on the inside. Good Magic may end up being the kind of disciplined horse who can steal a victory here.


Moving to the Florida Derby – Contenders #3 Promised Fulfilled, #5 Audible, #9 Hofburg:


The Florida Derby could provide us with some clues about how the Kentucky Derby will play out – you’ll notice Promised Fulfilled goes on a suicide run at 21.95 Quarter Mile before falling into a deep fade……I think they’ll run a similar style here……however if they have some patience...maybe a different outcome??

Audible and Hofburg both look like very solid contenders – I think both would need some help to win the Kentucky Derby, but I think either of these horses could crack the top 3.

Moving West to Arkansas  - Contenders #16 Magnum Moon, #17 Solomini, #20 Combatant.


First of all – kudos to the announcer for having Bad Moon on the Rise in his back pocket for the end of the race.

Next – Unlike the Blue Grass Stakes ALL of these horses have less than stellar starting positions…..sheesh Kentucky look after your own much?!?!

I believe Magnum Moon is a real contender in this race – and with Morning odds at 6/1 that’s not a bad price…..Magnum Moon enters this race undefeated  -- however he has two lightning fast horses on his inside and I don’t know that Magnum Moon will be able to put himself in a position to win – he’ll need help.

The two lightning fast horses I’m referring too are Santa Anita Derby Winner  #7 Justify and 2nd place finisher #11 Bolt D’Oro. See for yourself.


From what I understand – Bolt D’Oro (who finished 2nd in this race) was fast enough to defeat all of the horses who ran in the American Races…..the only horse that could have beat Bolt D’Oro did – and that was Justify.

Undefeated in 3 lifetime races, Justify enters this race as the Morning Line favorite.  

The “big” Strike against this horse is that he hasn’t raced a lot – most of these horses have almost twice as many outings as Justify (Mendelssohn is 4 out of 7 lifetime)……my concern is this horse may not have the kind of discipline to win against this talented of a field – then again he made mistakes in the Santa Anita and still beat, perhaps, the next best horse in America – that’s the other side of the coin, this horse has scary, scary talent.

In my opinion if Justify can run his race --- he’s rightfully the favorite and most likely will win the KY Derby.

***Here’s how I see the race unfolding – NBC will start by showing you how much sound Mendelssohn makes…he’s a loud horse.

As the race begins -- If #3 Promises Fulfilled can get out of the gate cleanly I think  he’s got a shot at the very early lead, along with #4 Flameaway – the real question is “How fast will they hit the quarter mile”?

**If these opening speedsters hit it in 21 or even 22 – I think they’ll fade hard before the end of the second turn – if however (one of them) can take the lead at around 23 seconds….they may be able to avoid traffic and (at 30-1) find a way to finish in the top 4.

I’m being told Enticed will NOT look to be at the top of the pack at the beginning of the race, but instead run a more conservative race until the final turn…..I don’t believe it – He’ll either be up early, or my guess is not at all – I don’t think he has the endurance to catch some of these horses once they have the lead – if Entice runs with Flameaway  and/or Promises Fulfilled…..could be dangerous for Justify – seeing two (or three) horse battle for a fast early lead….could tempt Justify to run out of his comfort zone and THAT’S exactly how I think Justify could lose this race….that’s where his inexperience could cost him.

**If Audible or Good Magic can keep Justify on their right shoulder going into the first turn that could cause Justify to expend enough early energy to have him vulnerable by the end of the race – a lot of this race could depend on if these two horses get a better opening break than Justify.

That being said – I don’t think Audible or Good Magic are going to be comfortable with the early speed at the top of the pack – I think Justify will look to find a way to get past them early.

I really like Audibles position - and I like the patience he showed in the Florida Derby -- I personally am putting Audible higher than Mendelssohn. 

Bolt D’oro and Mendelssohn will be on the outside looking in – the good news is they’ll be able to pick their spots once the pack starts to separate going into the first turn…..the bad news is – if Justify can break free of Audible and Good Magic and put himself along the rail just behind some opening leaders  -- they may be in a position where they’ve lost too much ground early – to do any real damage late.

Magnum Moon, Noble Indy and Vino Rosso – will likely stick to the middle of the pack and hope to steal this race late – out of these three I like Magnum Moon  – but luck will be a big factor --- as these horses will need a parting of the Red Sea moment to have an opening coming out of the final turn….but with the right position and a lot of luck – one of these horses could steal it.

In closing – Mendelssohn looks amazing, and I’m told he’s ready…..and when I hear people around the track buzzing, I’ve learned to listen – but I just don’t like the late arrival from a different time zone – I don’t believe this horse will be ready for this kind of race. I’m kicking him down a few spots.

**I would like to add if Mendelssohn wins the KY Derby --- we could be witnessing something very special…..like greatest 3 year old of all time special.

I am counting on Justify to run his race and not lose his composure – I think he takes the lead going into the final turn and doesn’t look back.

I like Audible to hang close with the leaders and slide into 2nd  followed by Bolt D’oro and Magnum Moon.

Closing Speed likes:  Justify, Audible and Magnum Moon.

If I’m betting $34 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box: 5,7,11,16 = $24

$1 Exacta: 7, 11 with 6,9,14,18,19 = $10

Some Longshots -- (If there is rain – I would consider betting $27 on Longshots – as follows)

$2 Win - – Good Magic (Especially if it’s raining)
$5 Win – Audible (If raining)
$5 Win - Magnum Moon (if raining)
$5 Win - Nobel Indy (if odds are higher than 20/1)
$10 Win -  Promises Fulfilled (if odds are higher than 20/1)