Saturday, February 2, 2013

Sam F. Davis Stakes 2013

TAMPA BAY - February 02, 2013
Race 11 - 5:23 PM
Sam F. Davis S. (Grade III)
Purse - $250,000
Distance - One And One Sixteenth Miles

1 – Northern Lion
1A – Dynamic Sky
2 – Silver Day
3 – Divine Ambition
4 – My Name Is Michael
5 – Speak Logistics
6 – Lighting Stone
7 – Balino
8- Falling Sky
9- Midnite Poppa

There are three great prep races this Saturday….but I don’t see any of them being very competitive.

Out of Aqueduct in the Withers Stakes Revolutionary has a morning line of 3/5 odds – and will likely win with ease as long as the weather cooperates.

Only four horses will enter the Robert B. Lewis Stakes out of Santa Anita where Flashback also carries 3/5 Morning line odds. I’m not as convinced about Flashback….but when you pick three horses every race, covering a four horse race seems like a timid offer.

So without an upset option in either of these races, I decided to take a peek at the Sam F. Davis Stakes in Tampa.

#1A Dynamic Sky will be the headliner and favorite in this outing – in a race that reassembles some of the same players from the Pasco Stakes from three weeks ago, where Dynamic Sky won with relative ease over (#3  Drive Ambition, who showed, #2 Silver Day who finished 6th, and #6 Lightening Stone who finished 7th).

While I do like Dynamic Sky in this race – he’s run twice at 1 1/16th miles….and finished 6th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and 2nd in the Breeder’s Futurity – so there could be a horse better prepared for the distance in this one.

#1 Northern Lion recently enjoyed his first victory in three attempts and earned that victory at this distance. He’ll be moving up against better talent in this race, but he could be on the upswing.

#3 Drive Ambition intrigues me --- he’s only got two races under his belt – and one of them was a 6 furlong victory. I like his post position, and I like his 8/1 odds here – the problem is he certainly didn’t show much stamina in the Pasco.

#4 My Name Is Michael has one victory in four attempts and is coming off of a 63 day lay-off.  He’s currently slated at 4/1 odds – and that may be, because his last race was 1 1/16th and he finished 2nd. I like this horse but I think he’ll struggle to crack the top 3.

#5 Speak Logistics is coming off a disappointing 7th place finish in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile – however before the big money race he had won two in a row. He’s currently going off as the second favorite at 3/1, however he’s coming off the longest layoff here – 93 days….which could be time well spent training and growing…..then again it could be a lot of rust to shake off for a young horse?

#7 Balino goes off as the 30/1 longshot….he’s won his last two outings…a 7 Furlong and a Mile. If he stays above 20-1 odds I think he makes an interesting Win or Place bet.

#8 Falling Sky (who is a half brother to Northern Lion – both sired by Lion Heart) has won 2 out of 3 attempts --- however his longest attempt was merely 6.5 furlongs and I think his current odds of 5/1 are too optimistic --- I see Falling Sky as being closer to 8/1 or 10/1 before I like money on him.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
is the Midnite Poppa
of the jungle yeah!
Finally I love it when you call me #9 Midnite Pappa!

Midnite Pappa pulled out his first victory, out of three attempt in his last race. Unlike Falling Sky, I kind of like the odds on Midnite Pappa --- I think he could surprise here….then again I could see him finishing last too.

I really believe Dynamic Sky is beatable in this race so….

Closing Speed likes:  5,1,9

I sticking with the thought that Dynamic Sky will struggle here so I’m offering this Exacta as my bet.

$1 Exacta ---- 3,5,7,9 w/ 1.5 = $7