Belmont Stakes 2021

Belmont Park
RACE 11 - 6:49 PM
Belmont S. (Grade I)
Purse - $1,500,000

Distance - One And one ½ Miles
Surface – Dirt

 

1 – Bourbonic

2 – Essential Quality                                                       

3 – Rombauer

4 – Hot Rod Charlie                                         

5 – France Go de Ina      

6 – Known Agenda                                         

7 – Rock Your World

8 – Overtook

Writing about the 2021 Belmont Stakes feels more like I’m writing a Sherlock Holmes novel:

THE CASE OF THE BAFFLING BELMONT !!!!

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
questions how difficult this Belmont is
or if the writer just enjoys
alliteration.

In the past I have been far more comfortable choosing my pick for this race – but I believe this year the race may be much trickier to forecast. 

We’ll start with our suspects:

#1 Bourbonic – in my Kentucky Derby offering this is what I wrote: 

***This horse should ABSOLUTELY be on your radar for the Belmont Stakes!

Bourbonic finished a distant 13^th in the Kentucky Derby – however I believe this horse is the best built for this distance, AND Bourbonic is back on his home dirt in New York. He’s currently listed at 15/1 odds for a race I believe he’s got the stamina for – in fact, I think Bourbonic is the rare case of a horse that prefers this kind of distance – the problem  is – the Belmont Stakes are usually the only time a horse runs a mile and one half.

#2 Essential Quality – skipped the Preakness after finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Essential Quality was the favorite in the Kentucky Derby (morning odds have him as the favorite in the Belmont) – obviously many Horse Racing Bettors and Enthusiasts believe he’s still the best 3 year old of the crop.

Was the Kentucky Derby just bad luck??

Maybe the size of the race overwhelmed Essential Quality ---  OR is this horse only dominant at 1 1/8th miles or less??

I would not be surprised if the strategy for this horse is to take the early lead, ride the rail and just hope to lug his way home --- I’ve seen it work several times in the Belmont.  For my money – I think another horse will find a way to surpass him coming down the stretch.

Perhaps that horse will be Preakness winner #3 Rombauer – who stormed the final furlongs and looked downright dominant at the wire!!

I’ll be the first to admit – I was shocked.....I didn’t see anything on his resume that indicated he could contend…..but if you watch the Preakness finale again --- there’s little reason to suspect he won’t pull away with a huge win in the Belmont.

What makes his situation interesting however (and this Belmont so Baffling) is that his Jockey in the Preakness (Flavien Prat) will be riding and guiding #4 Hot Rod Charlie --- to make matters even stranger, John R. Velazquez (Rombauer’s Jockey in the Belmont) has never ridden this horse in a race.

 A bizarre bit of trivia for Rombauer is that in 8 races he has had 7 different jockeys?!?!

Here they are folks...all of Rombauers Riders
Who will ride him next?? It could be you!!

Velazquez is a fantastic rider, he’s won the Belmont Stakes twice --- but you have to question, what kind of working relationship will they have come race day?

 #4 Hot Rod Charlie – finished 3^rd in the Kentucky Derby with Flavien Prat aboard and didn’t compete in the Preakness.  Currently he’s going off as the “third” favorite with 7/2 odds.

 Hot Rod Charlie may also attempt to go wire to wire --- my gut tells me that if he ends up on the outside of Essential Quality and they both try to lug it out for the final ¼ mile – Essential Quality should be able to hold him off……but this is such a strange field – taking the odds on Hot Rod Charlie would make sense.

#5 France Go de Ina – is the longshot at 30-1 after finishing 7^th in the Preakness. “Maybe” this horse has acclimated to the US (after racing overseas) and is about to shock the world --- I think this horse will be lucky to finish in the top 5 – Le Pass.

#6 Known Agenda – at 6/1, I think people are doubting this horse because he hasn’t won since March and because of a horrible starting spot in the Kentucky Derby. It’s more like Forgotten Agenda!! I believe this horse is poised for a very solid race…..he’s had some bad luck – but has everything pointing in the right direction in the Belmont.

 #7 Rock Your World – I had this horse finishing 2^nd behind Medina Spirit in my Kentucky Derby post….instead this horse finished 17^th!! 

So will the “Real” Rock Your World please stand up…..please stand up??

This horse enjoyed 3 victories in Santa Anita – including defeating the Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit at Santa Anita…..my gut tells me this horse will look to compete early and fade fast.

I’m looking for him to tag along with Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie.

 #8 Overtook – recently finished 3^rd here at Belmont Park in the Peter Pan Stakes.  His 20/1 odds I think are very much worth a look in a Trifecta bet. Overtook may need some luck and hope some of the early runners fade….but in this race I think that’s very possible.

Here’s how I  picture the race – 

Bourbonic will drop WAAAAAAYYYY back --- he will begin to pick up steam after everyone else hits the middle of the last turn.

Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie will set the pace, I think Rock Your World will be in the early top 3, and stalk the lead.  My hunch is that they’re all watching what Essential Quality will do……I’ll be interested because they may see if Essential Quality can run a faster mile than expected and just hope to have a strong enough lead that everyone else won’t be able to make a final push!

Rombauer and Known Agenda will work the middle of the pack – both looking for their spots. 

Overtook is a bit of a mystery to me – he may run closer to the lead or may hang back with Rombauer and Known Agenda.

As they approach the final turn I suspect Rombauer will begin making his move – I think Known Agenda will follow…..at this point do either of them have the stamina to overtake the leaders?

Have the leaders put enough space behind them to lug home??

And FINALLY Bourbonic has woken up and is looks like a horse on fire from about 8 to 10 lengths back.

Closing Speed likes:  Known Agenda, Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, Bourbonic

If I’m betting $40 – this is what I like:

$5 Win - #1 - Bourbonic  (only at odds in the 15/1 area)

$5 Win - #8 Overtook  (only at odds in the 20/1 area)

$1 Box Exacta – 1, 2, 6

$1 Box Exacta – 1,2, 4, 6

The Case of the Baffling Belmont was all so
Elementary!