Friday, March 6, 2015

San Felipe Stakes 2015

San Felipe Stakes (Grade II)
Purse $400,000
Distance 1 1/16 miles

Lord Nelson
Ocho Ocho Ocho
The Gomper
Prospect Park
Sir Sampson
Pain and Misery

#3 Dortmund enters this race as an undefeated (4 for 4) morning line 8/5 favorite -- below is the video of his last thrilling victory (by a nose). in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

Dortmund is a deserving 8/5 favorite - however in his last two races he was really pushed by Firing Line, (who is looking for any race that doesn't involve Dortmund right now) -- the Robert B. Lewis Stakes also didn't have many horses racing....these are very mild concerns -- it is likely Dortmund will be the early leader and finish this race uncontested.

However #1 Lord Nelson,  #2 Ocho Ocho Ocho and #6 Prospect Park may prove to be worthy challengers ---

Lord Nelson has won 3 of 5 races including his last outing The San Vicente Stakes, here at Santa Anita.

I kind of miss Ocho Cinco
Ocho Ocho Ocho has been out of racing for over 100 days -- but his last race was a solid victory in the Delta Jackpot.

And finally Prospect Park ran with a lot of patience and confidence (a victory over #4 The Gomper) in an allowance race in late January.

I would love to offer up a big upset here but -- I think Dortmund will run away with this one. I think Prospect Park could surprise -- but at 4/1 odds that isn't much of a game changer.
Closing Speed likes: Dortmund, Prospect Park and Lord Nelson

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah thinks
Closing Speed should choose
Pain & Misery -- because
that's what his betting advice
usually is.

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Tampa Bay Derby 2015

Tampa Bay Derby
Date/Track: 3/7/15 - Tampa Bay Downs
Post Time: 5:23 pm EST
Distance:  1 1/16 (Dirt)

Diving Rod
Ocean Knight
Carpe Diem
Ami's Flatter
My Johnny Be Good
Souper Colossal
Great Stuff
Moonlight Bandit
Danzig Moon

For #1 Diving Rod, #2 Ocean Knight, #4 Ami's Flatter and #5 My Johnny Be Good this will be a rematch of the Sam F. Davis Stakes - see video below:

The morning line of this race has Ocean Knight going off at 2/1 odds and Diving Rod going off at 6/1 odds  -- which seems like a sizable gap considering Ocean Knight barely won this race with a nod of his head.

For those who have followed racing for some time - Ocean Knight was sired by 2007 Preakness Winner (and one of my favorites) Curlin -- and they have a very similar running style.

However the "prime time" morning line favorite is #3 Carpe Diem - who finished 2nd in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Carpe Diem may be the most talented horse in the field however he hasn't seized the race in over 120 days.

I certainly have my reservations about a young horse having that much time off and then making him the favorite -- so this race could be prime for an upset -- well maybe a "mild" upset.

A horse that I think is flying under the radar in this one is: #6 Souper Colossal - and his last race can be seen here:

After watching this video
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
can't get the song
"Moon River"
out of his head.

If Carpe Diem can shake off the rust and can return to his late fall stride -- he'll be very difficult to defeat in his one.

However I'm going to take a little bit of a chance and.....

Closing Speed likes: Ocean Knight, Souper Colossal, and Carpe Diem.

I like a $2 Exacta Box of Ocean Knight / Souper Colossal and Diving Rod. ($6)

I can't help but add this last video for Robin Williams: