2024 Preakness Stakes

Pimlico Race Track..
RACE 13 – 7:01 PM
Preakness S. (Grade I)
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One And 3/16ths  Mile
Surface – Dirt

1 – Mugatu
2 – Uncle Heavy                                                              
3 –Catching Freedom
4 – Muth                            
5 – Mystik Dan
6 – Seize the Grey                         
7 – Just Steel
8 – Tuscan Gold
9 - Imagination

I have to imagine that most people who follow horse racing believe the best three year old horses in the nation will be absent from The Preakness.

Fierceness, who faded in the Kentucky Derby – was the Florida Derby and Juvenile Champion.

Sierra Leone who missed by a nostril in the Kentucky Derby is out – although I’m hoping for a Belmont Stakes run – it looks like it would be a great distance for this horse.

And Arkansas Derby winner #4 Muth scratched.

Leaving us with a field of 8….and very little competition for Kentucky Derby Winner #5 Mystik Dan.

Let’s begin with #1 Mugatu – who’s last  victory was with Joe Bravo aboard in November 2023. He has two 3^rd place showings in his last 5 races…..and his best races are at One Mile….the extra 3/16ths are likely going to be too much for this horse. Outside of Bravo being back, not much to believe in here.

#2 Uncle Heavy – (Which sadly is NOT some kind of mash-up of Uncle Buck and the Sopranos) 

You woke up this morning...
Got a blue moon in your eyes

 – he switches to Irad Ortiz for his first new jockey in 5 Lifetime races – and he does have 3 wins in 5 attempts. He last raced  April 6^th, finishing 5^th against lack luster talent, but he may have some fresher legs coming into this race. He hasn’t raced against much talent….but at 20-1, in the rain, he may be worth a thought in this one…..but only if the odds are good!

 #4 Catching Freedom – The Louisiana Derby winner  finished 4^th behind Mystik Dan in the Kentucky Derby….and is the next closest finisher to participate in both races. His Jockey Flavien Prat is one of the best in the business and they were gaining some ground in the final furlongs at Twin Spires. He’s the second favorite and could be the one to steal a victory from Mystik Dan.

#5 Mystik Dan – Kenneth McPeek has been a GREAT Trainer this year and I’m certainly happy that he’s found major success and Brian Hernandez returns as Mystik Dan's rider – having ridden this horse 6 of his 7 races and his last three straight.

Mystik Dan had the perfect ride in the Kentucky Derby….you really can’t write it up better that that. Coming out of the three hole this horse found enough space to take the rail early and wait for the final turn to open up. Coming out of the turn Mystik Dan stuck to the rail and charged up the final furlongs with nothing in front of him -- He received JUST the luck he needed as Fierceness faded, and Sierra Leone didn’t have enough time to catch up.

 
Part of the problem of having confidence in this horse is the “luck” part.  

In March he finished 3^rd behind Muth and #7 Just Steel.

In Februrary he beat Just Steel in a Mile 1/16^th.

In January he finished 5^th behind Catching Freedom and Just Steel.

In the Kentucky Derby this horse proved that he could win at this distance and had the discipline and nerve to take the rail and wait for his moment…….OR (like his other races) is this horse about to regress?

I’m not sure he should be sitting at 5/2 odds.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
enjoys a positive affirmation
with a play on words!
Seize the Grey indeed!

#6 Seize the Grey – Rider Jaime Torres returns after a successful stakes race on Kentucky Derby Day. Out of 9 races this horse has 3 Wins and 3 Shows – finished a very disappointing 7^th in Keeneland against Sierra Leone and Just a Touch. I wish this horse had fresher legs…as he also raced just two weeks ago – but I think 15-1 are good odds for this horse. Don’t know that he’s got a win in him here, but like his chance to make the top 3.

#7 Just Steel – This horse has had 12 Lifetime races and earned 2 Wins, 4 Places, 1 Show…..and also finished 17^th in the Kentucky Derby.  Just Steel offered up the early speed in the last race and will likely be at the top to begin this race as well. Again, not fresh legs here and really faded in his last race….the intriguing part to me is that in his last 5 races Just Steel has finished 2^nd in three of those races and out of the money in the other two.

This horse finished immediately behind Muth in March (but ahead of Mystik Dan), behind Mystik Dan in February, and behind Catching Freedom in January.

#8 Tuscan Gold – Only three lifetime races and two in 2024 – finished 3^rd in March behind Catching Freedom and comes in with very fresh legs and Tyler Gaffailione on board.  A little bit of an unknown factor here. Watch his odds.

#9 Imagination – Out of 6 Lifetime races this horse has 2 Wins and 4 Places. After winning the San Felipe in Santa Anita, Imagination finished 2^nd in the Santa Anita Derby. This is another horse with Fresh legs.

I don’t think Mugatu or Uncle Heavy have much to offer in this race – although if it’s a sloppy track it could be a weird race day…..but still I’m knocking these two out of contention.

I think Catching Freedom with Flavien Prat are going to be able to position themselves well with Mystik Dan……Mystik I believe will be looking to grab the inside again....we'll see if Catching Freedom blocks him from the rail.

It will be interesting if Just Steel decides to just run with Mystik Dan and not push the tempo – that being said I don’t love the change in Jockey for Just Steel – Rosario has had success with this horse, but it’s been more than a year.

Seize the Grey will likely also run towards the front of the pack – there’s a chance Seize the Grey and Just Steel fade due to a fast early speed…..and both of these horses have only had two weeks off.

Tuscan Gold is a mystery ---- I’d like better odds here.

Imagination may need the lead in this race and coming out of the 9^th spot in Mud isn’t selling me – BUT this horse is ONLY real contender that is coming in fresh.

My big questions
What the hell is Tuscan Gold going to do?
Will Seize the Grey ,  Just Steel and Imagination find themselves in an early speed battle and fade?
And will Mystik Dan be able to hold off a late charging Catching Freedom?

I’m rooting for Mystik Dan – but,

How many times did I mention Fresh Legs?
I'm like a ZZ Top Special Dance Mix!

Closing Speed likes:   

Catching Freedom, Mystik Dan, Tuscan Gold

*** If there's lots of SLOP- give me Imagination, Mystik Dan and Catching Freedom

$1 Box Trifecta – 3,5,7.9 = $24

$10 - #6 Seize the Grey to Win
$10 - #7 Just Steel to Win

 

Kentucky Derby 2024

Churchill Downs  – May  4th, 2024
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $5,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface - Dirt

 

1 – Dornoch 2 – Sierra Leone 3 – Mystik Dan 4 – Catching Freedom 5 – Catalytic 6 – Just Steel 7 – Honor Marie 8 –  Just a Touch 9 –  Encino 10 –  TO Password

11 – Forever Young 12 – Track Phantom 13 – West Saratoga 14 – Endlessly 15 – Domestic Product 16 – Grand Mo The First 17 – Fierceness 18 – Stronghold 19 – Resilience 20 –  Society Man 21 – Epic Ride 22 – Mugatu

I’ll begin with the Morning Line Favorite #17 Fierceness (5/2) – He is the Breeders Cup Juvenile Champion and Winner of the Florida Derby.

His Trainer Todd Pletcher has won Two Kentucky Derbies – His Jockey John Velazquez has won Three Kentucky Derbies – they won one of those Derbies together in 2017 with Always Dreaming (who was also a Florida Derby Winner).

Fierceness has a fantastic post position in this race.  Not to take anything away from this horse and this team…..but Bob Baffert and his horses also won’t be competing at the Kentucky Derby – so the competition is diminished. 

It’s absolutely his Derby to lose – the only question is – how will he handle the distance and could he come out flat – which is the same issue for all of the horses.

Also racing: #5 Catalytic, #16 Grand Mo The First

#2 Sierra Leone is the second current favorite (3-1) and is coming off of two straight trips to the Winners Circle at the Blue Grass Stakes and Risen Star Stakes. 

His Trainer Chad Brown has never won a KY Derby – but is one of the best in the business – Tyler Gaffalione also has never won a KY Derby – but is one of the most experienced Riders at Churchill Downs. 

One item of note Tyler Gaffalione won the Tampa Bay Derby with #15 Domestic Product – and obviously choose to continue with Sierra Leone. 

I don’t trust Blue Grass Stakes winners…..they normally don’t perform well in the KY Derby. 

I don’t like Sierra Leone’s Post Position – however because this horse naturally likes to run from deep in the back of the pack, I don’t think this Post Position hurts his chances to win as much as it would many of the other horses. 

I can see this horse having to give up a LOT of ground early….perhaps WAY to much for a horse like Fierceness, and not being able to break through the heavy traffic  coming out of the second turn. 

If this horse has to go 8 or 10 wide to make a late move – I don’t believe he’ll have the time to catch up for a win. 

I don’t like the odds for this horse – as I believe he is going to absolutely depend on a gap opening up late (but not TOO late) and giving him a shot to shoot the gap and run inside and steal a win. 

Lots of negatives here – could get pinned to the rail and swallowed up by the traffic early and never given a shot to break out…..if he can break away he’s very dangerous….but the other 19 Jockey’s know that as well.

Also Racing: #8 Just A Touch, #21 Epic Ride

Bonus Points if you knew this album came
out in 1996!

#4 Catching Freedom is the next favorite (8/1) and current Louisiana Derby champion. 

He is trained by Brad Cox who is dominating at Churchill Downs and has won 2 Kentucky Derbies previously. His KY Derby victory in 2019 was with Flavien Prat aboard and so far has been Prat’s only KY Derby win. Cox and Prat reunite here with Catching Freedom. 

Not the best Post Position – as he may have trouble with traffic early AND  the Louisiana Derby hasn’t produced a Kentucky Derby Winner since 1996.....some might say this horse is just a Wannabe!!

Catching Freedom finished 3^rd behind Sierra Leone and #12 Track Phantom in the Risen Star Stakes….I don’t love the odds for this horse. 

Below are the horses I believe COULD SHOCK / UPSET:

#9 Just A Touch (10/1) – is also a Brad Cox Trained horse and is ridden by Florent Geroux who is ON FIRE at Churchill right now…..winning at about 31% -- these two won a KY Derby (Geroux’s only) in 2021.

Just A Touch was sired by Justify who is not only the only KY Derby winning Sire – but also the only Triple Crown winner as a Sire.

Has a great Post Position – HOWEVER this horse hasn’t had a victory since January – finished 2^nd in the Gotham and 2^nd against Sierra Leone at Blue Grass.

Justify had a lot of Flash in the Splash

#6 Just Steel (20/1) – also sired by Justify – with legend D Wayne Lucas as his trainer and Keith Asmussen as his rider.

The good news about this horse is that he’s seasoned – having 11 races in his young career – the bad news is he only has 2 wins. That last victory was at Churchill Downs in November.

 Excellent Post Position – he finished 2^nd in the Arkansas Derby…..maybe gets a break and gives us an upset?

 

#12 Track Phantom (20-1) – Ridden by Joel Rosario who had a KY Derby win in 2013 – and trained by Steven Asmussen.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
still can't believe
Natalie Portman and
Jar Jar Binks shared a screen!

 #9 Just A Touch and #12 Track Phantom could be the “early” speed in this race. 

Track Phantom had 3 straight wins at 1 1/16^th mile……but when the distance increased he hasn’t had the endurance to finish strong……falling to 2^nd place against Sierra Leone in the Risen Star and 4^th against Catching Freedom and Honor Marie. 

But on May the Fourth…..you have to ask if he could be a Phantom Menance?!?!

#18 Stronghold (20/1)– Winner of the Santa Anita Derby and Sunland Derby winner. 

I have been told I have a West Coast bias – but why is this horse going off at 20/1?? 

I recognize that his Trainer Philip D’Amato and Jockey Antonio Fresu don’t have a KY Derby victory on their resume….but this horse is right next to the favorite and has enough speed to stay towards the top of the pack. 

** If Fierceness comes out flat or fades…..I like this horse a LOT better than 8/1 Catching Freedom. 

Won’t be surprised if this horse comes in closer to 8/1 or 6/1 at the bell…..if you can get any better than 10/1 odds here – this could be a very good price.

#19 Resilience (20/1) – John R Velazquez rode this horse to victory in the Wood Memorial – but chose to stick with Fierceness for the KY Derby.

Junior Alvarado will be aboard – and Resilience will also ride closer to the top of the pack. 

Bill Mott is his trainer and won a KY Derby in 2019. 

Here’s the three scenrios I see happening – 

1^st Scenario

#17 Fierceness glides into position as they approach the first turn – he keeps pace or stalks the early leaders – he takes over after the first turn – he muscles out of the second turn and glides to victory. Sierra Leone “Maybe” makes a desperate attempt for 2^nd place or a Longshot holds him off because he hit traffic late.

2^nd Scenario

#2 Sierra Leone  - “manages” the first few steps of the race without getting swallowed up in traffic. Falls VERY far behind a hot pace – begins making his creep going into the second turn – as they swing out of the second turn - Tyler Gaffalione sees the perfect hole, gives Sierra Leone the signal and they shoot through a hole near the rail and charge past the fading early leaders including a wobbly Fierceness.

I think this horse will HAVE to have an inside gap – I’ve seen much better horses fail to go 8 to 12 wide to win the KY Derby. 

Granted if Scenario 2 happens  this writer than has to “own” that the Blue Grass Stakes have something to offer. 

3^rd Scenario

If you’re betting on this race and want to win big….this is YOUR Scenario.

Fierceness comes out flat…..or gets caught in an early speed trap and is absolutely gassed with 2 or 3 furlongs to go…..they have misjudged the pace or the distance and he’s fading.

Meanwhile Sierra Leone struggled in traffic early – has never found a space to run freely and is trapped behind traffic coming out of the final turn…..He’s not going to make it!

Both of these can happen – which would leave us with a relatively BIG UPSET as the only other option.

And that’s when I think having some money on #6 Just Steel,  #9 Just A Touch, #12 Track Phantom, #18 Stronghold, or #19 Resilience is the way to go.

Out of those 5 – I like Just a Touch and Stronghold the most.

Closing Speed likes: Fierceness, Just A Touch and Stronghold

If I’m betting $20 to $24 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box (with favorites): 2, 9, 17, 18 = $24

$1 Exacta Box : 2,17 w  6, 9, 12, 18, 19  = $10

Longshots:

$5 Win/Place – #9 = $10
$5 Win/ Place - #18 - $10

Good Luck and.....May the Fourth be with you!