Belmont Stakes 2023

Belmont Park
RACE 12 - 7:02 PM
Belmont S. (Grade I)
Purse - $1,500,000
Distance - One And one ½ Miles
Surface – Dirt

1 – Tapit Shoes
2 – Tapit Trice                           
3 – Arcangelo
4 – National Treasure                                   
5 – Il Miracolo   
6 – Forte                           
7 – Hit Show
8 – Angel Of Empire
9 – Red Route One

Let’s begin with the Preakness Winner #4 National Treasure – who went stride for stride with Blazing Sevens and squeaked out a HUGE win. 

I thought both of those horses would fade and that Mage and Red Route One would give us an electric late charge….but that was not the case. 

If you missed it – here is the race:

There are a couple of interesting storylines with the 155^th Belmont Stakes – the most important is the hazardous air quality in New York from the wildfires in Canada. 

Here’s hoping this difficult time ends soon for our friends in New York. 

Air Quality will definitely have an effect on the Training, Riding and Racing before the Belmont - that is IF it's still run this Saturday.

The next biggest story is the hopeful return of, the current 5-2 favorite, #6 Forte. I thought there was a very good chance this horse could be a Triple Crown contender before he was scratched before the Kentucky Derby. 

I still believe he’s easily the best 3 year old running this year – and only two horses in the field have ever won at Belmont – and he’s one of them! 

However the distance does concern me, especially because we’ve never seen this horse run more than a mile and 1/8^th. 

With a unique longer distance after a two and half month lay-off and possible small injury…..this horse may be a little rusty for this race. 

I guess what I’m saying is…when he’s healthy and ready – he’s definitely the favorite – are we sure he’s completely healthy and ready??

#1 Tapit Shores – hasn’t produced a victory since December 2022 – he finished 2^nd behind #9 Red Route One in late April. This horse has like a 12 Owner Partnership….maybe he’s just entered so that the owners can party at Belmont…….I’d believe it.

#2 Tapit Trice – Finished a disappointing 7^th in the Kentucky Derby – before then he had 4 straight wins with Luis Saez on board – and Saez will be on board for the Belmont. This horse is a contender in this race – but I’m not a huge fan of him winning. Currently he’s the second favorite at 3-1 and I don’t think he should be. I don’t think he can close the deal at a Mile and a half. 

And yes Tapit Shores and Tapit Trice are half-brothers.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
thinks it would be awkward
to meet your half brother for
the first time in the Starters Gate
of a big race.

#3 Arcangelo – I think this horse may be flying under the radar a little – he’s got 2 straight victories with Castellano coming into this race and continues to improve as they add distance. 

And his last victory was here at Belmont! 

He hasn’t seen this kind of talent yet – so it could be overwhelming, but keep this horse in mind to take a top 3 spot at the end of the race – if you’re looking for a “value bet” he could be the one to add to your exotics. 

#4 National Treasure – the only horse running in the Belmont with a Triple Crown victory is going off as the 4^th Favorite……talk about no respect....but then again, the FILM is also kind of disrespected!!

This image is similar to me reviewing 
where I went WRONG in the Preakness.

I thought this horse would do a HARD FADE in the Preakness and I was wrong – out of 6 lifetime races he’s only finished out of the money once.

Jockey John Velazquez will be on board again – and I think National Treasure has more of a chance than people are giving him credit for.

 #5 Il Miracolo – Is the Colpo Lungo in this race at 30-1. He recently scored an Allowance Race victory but out of 6 Stakes races….he’s never finished better than 5^th.  If you were to make me your Race Day Consigliere I would tell you to “Stai lontano…Capiche??

#7 Hit Show – When you consider how difficult it is to climb out of the #1 spot in the Kentucky Derby – his 5^th place finish is impressive. This horse has 3 Wins and 1 Place in 6 races. He has Manuel Franco has his rider who has been with him during the last three races.

I just don’t see this horse improving with distance.

#8 Angel of Empire – Finished 3^rd behind Mage and Two Phil’s in the Kentucky Derby – and if Flavien Prat could have made the move around the edge when he wanted they might have won the Kentucky Derby.

I like Angel of Empire with distance and I believe Angel of Empire should be the 2^nd favorite in this race – currently at 7-2 odds he’s the third favorite.

Angel of Empire had 2 victories and a second place in three Stakes races leading up to the Kentucky Derby. They have something to prove here.

#9 Red Route One – finished 4^th in the Preakness. I really thought this horse was ready to make an upset in the Preakness, but as they headed for home he didn’t offer much.

With a longer distance – and an improved field, I don’t like his chances.

How I see the 2023 Belmont –

I think Il Miracolo will set the pace along with National Treasure – Tapit Shoes may also join the early runners.

In the past there has been an effective strategy in the Belmont Stakes of taking an early lead and then just hoping to outlast the rest of the pack….the daunting distance can cause many horses to just give out before they even get close to the leader.

For National Treasure I think this strategy is worth considering – after all it worked in the Preakness.

If Forte is game, you can expect him to stalk the lead(s) but maintaining a smart pace. Angel of Empire will likely be stalking Forte – the idea may be that when Forte commits to the stretch run Flavien Prat will ask Angel of Empire to commit as well.

It will be interesting to me to see if they want to position Angel of Empire in front of Forte or immediately behind him.

The question will be where will Tapit Thrice and Arcangelo run – I imagine they will have the same strategy as Angel of Empire – in keeping close to Forte.

As we head for the LONG WOBBLY stretch home –

I think National Treasure will have a few lengths on most of the pack and clear ground in front of him.

I believe Forte, Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice and Arcangelo will make a solid bid at the lead.

I think Angel of Empire steals one from Forte at the wire…..National Treasure hanging on to 3rd with Arcangelo and Tapit Trice looking to take 4th.

Closing Speed likes:  Angel of Empire, Forte, National Treasure

If I’m betting $16 to $34 – this is what I like:

$10 Win - #4

$1 Box Exacta – 4,6,8 = $6

$1 Box Trifecta – 3,4,6,8 = $24

The Preakness 2023

Pimlico Race Track
RACE 13 – 7:01 PM
Preakness S. (Grade I)
Purse - $1,500,000
Distance - One And 3/16ths  Mile
Surface – Dirt

1 – National Treasure
2 – Chase the Chaos                                                 
3 – Mage
4 – Coffeewithchris                       
5 – Red Route One
6 – Perform                                       
7 – Blazing Sevens
8 – First Mission

Mage is the one in the middle.

I am a bit saddened that only one horse from the Kentucky Derby will be racing in the Preakness – the good news is, it is the Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness Favorite #3 Mage.

If you haven’t seen the Kentucky Derby the replay is below.

However if you only watched it casually or only watched it once – I’d ask for you to watch it again with a few specifics in mind.

 Using the Youtube Video timer:  

If you go to the 1:35 point you will see Mage and Angel of Empire going stride for stride in the final turn – Mage is strategically on the outside – but still in the middle of the track (it’s a strange NBC Angle from above).

At 1:45 – You will see Mage block off an outside hole for Angel of Empire – boxing Angel of Empire inside.

It takes Angel of Empire 20 seconds (2:05) to swing outside and find open ground – just enough time for Mage to fly by Two Phils and still beat Angel of Empire to the finish line!

Rider Javier Castellano absolutely made the difference in this race.

 

So let’s move onto the Preakness.

 #8 Mage – is the morning line favorite at 8-5 – and while I certainly agree he should be the favorite, I think those odds are far too cocky for a horse that only has 2 lifetime wins. 

Yes he’s very likely the best horse in this field and he seems to favor races longer than a mile – but 8/5 on a horse with just two wins? I don’t know about that. 

Searching for clues on these odds.

#1 National Treasure – is another horse that I’m not so positive deserves the odds of 4-1. While I love this horses name because the film National Treasure is guilty pleasure of mine – similar to the film, just because it’s loved doesn’t mean it’s that good…..(who am I kidding – it’s wonderful!)

Jockey John Velazquez has been National Treasures jockey for all 5 of this horses races – he’s a very good rider and knows the horse well. However if you look at this horse’s history – he’s actually struggled with the any race further than a mile.

 He has the talent to land in the top three – but could very easily be “fade” material.

 #2 Chase the Chaos – Is the El Camino Derby winner and therefore an automatic invite to the Preakness. I like that Trainer / Ownership are going with a very successful Pimilico Jockey – Sheldon Russell, who has won 7 out of 13 races here at Pimilico this meet.

But I don’t see anything on this horse’s resume to suggest a wager….even at 50-1.

#4 Coffeewithchris – This horse has 12 lifetime races, and for a 3 year old that’s a LOT. Out of those 12 races this horse has been a Win/Place or Show 8 times…..which is also impressive.

Current 20-1 odds makes some sense – as this horse hasn’t necessarily challenged this level of talent – but I really like the success rate here – and he should be considered as a Exacta / Trifecta contender player.

 #5 Red Route One – finished 6^th behind Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby – but won his last race, coming from as far back as 8 lengths.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
would like to point out that
the writers Father DID like
Two Phils in that race.

 At 10-1 odds and an ability to close late – this horse also has my interest in an Exacta / Trifecta.  He has hit the board 5 out of 9 lifetime races.  And Joel Rosario was on board with his most recent win.

 #6 Perform – has won his last 2 races and has hit the board 4 out of 7 races lifetime. Finished well behind Mage this past January. 

 His morning line is 15-1 – I really don’t see much in this horse…..but to be fair, I didn’t see much in Two Phils who finished 2^nd in the KY Derby.

#7 Blazing Sevens – I think this horse will be overbet because it’s the #7 horse and his name is Blazing Sevens! He’s a solid horse who has been training well.  He has 2 Victories in 6 lifetime attempts.

But hasn’t won a race since October 2022. I think 10-1 odds would be reasonable for this horse.

 #8 First Mission – This horse is the current 2^nd favorite after Mage. He has raced in only three races but has 2 wins and 1 place…..his last two races were both trips to the Winner’s Circle.

He may need to be the early speed in this race and certainly could fancy a Wire to Wire trip. I don’t love his outside position against a horse like Mage in this race.

 Here’s how I see the race:

#8 First Mission bolts for the early lead and may have to contend with #4 Coffeewithchris.

#3 Mage will likely enjoy a leisurely first mile staying within a few lengths of the leaders.

#1 National Treasure could be a bit of a wildcard – this horse could look to stay on the inside, but also stay stride for stride with Mage….however that also could lead to this horse getting boxed inside when it counts?

 #5 Red Route One and #6 Perform I think will stay at the back of the pack.

I think #8 First Mission fades…..I’ll be surprised if he has the maturity to pace himself and then outrun Mage down the stretch -- as this is only Mage's 4th race......it may be a mistake to discount First Mission on a lack of races. I may be rooting for a longer shot here because it would be more interesting.

 #4 Coffeewithchris – could finish well because his early position may help him stay in the race.

 **If Mage were to fade in this race - #4 Coffeewithchris and #5 Red Route One could churn up some sizeable upsets.

However I think Mage flys by everyone in the final stretch – and Red Route One, First Mission and National Treasure fight it out a few lengths behind.

Closing Speed likes:  Mage, Coffeewithchris and Red Route One

If I'm betting this race:

 $1 Box Trifecta – 3,4,5,8 = $24

$1 Box Exacta – 3,4,5 = $6

Kentucky Derby 2023

Churchill Downs  – May  6th, 2023
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $3,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface - Dirt 

1 – Hit Show 2 – Verifying 3 – Two Phil’s 4 – Confidence Game 5 – Tapit Trice 6 – Kingsbarns 7 – Reincarnate 8 –  Mage 9 –  Skinner 10 –  Practical Move

11 – Disarm 12 – Jace’s Road 13 – Sun Thunder 14 – Angel of Empire 15 – Forte 16 – Raise Cain 17 – Derma Sotogake 18 – Rocket Can 19 – Lord Miles 20 – Continuar 21 - Cyclone Mischief 22 - Mandarin Hero 23- King Russell

I’ll begin with the Morning Line Favorite (3-1)  #15 Forte – I believe this horse has a legitimate chance to become only the 2^nd horse in history (following American Phoaroh) to win the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and the Triple Crown – the Kentucky Derby is, in my humble opinion, his to lose.

Forte has won 6 out of 7 lifetime races, including four Grade I Stakes races and a Grade II stakes race. His only "non-win" was in July 2022.

Forte runs with the consistency of a computer simulation – He breaks well, he runs in traffic with poise and he closes like a modish bad boss from Glengarry Glen Ross!

He will find his spot near the top of the pack for most of the race and then turn it on for the win once he hits the final stretch. 

He deserves to be the favorite – he has a solid post position and the leading Rider in the US - Irad Ortiz, Jr. (who has never won a Kentucky Derby).

For a look at how Forte runs, here's the Florida Derby (including #8 Mage and #21 (AE) Cyclone Mischief.

 

The next favorite is #5 Tapit Thrice currently set at 5-1 – (when I say his name it makes me think of the song Knock Three Times on the ceiling if you want me…..c’mon, Tony Orlando & Dawn?!?!)

You people don't know what you're missing!

I digress – Tapit Thrice has won 4 out of 5 lifetime races – but his only loss was his debut race. Tapit Thrice usually prefers to sit at the back of the pack and make a late bolt for the wire. 

If this horse can run his race and find a gap to burst through coming out of the turn – he "could" be plenty dangerous.

However here are my concerns with Tapit Thrice – I’m not a big fan of Blue Grass Stakes Winners to win the Kentucky Derby – they haven’t won a Kentucky Derby since 1991. And while he certainly has a solid post – I don’t think it’s going to help him much considering his racing style, I believe a post further out would have been preferable.

I think he’s going to get swallowed up in traffic early….and trapped behind a wall of horses late. His Jockey Luis Saez (2^nd best in the US) has also never “technically” won a Kentucky Derby – (he and Maximum Security were disqualified in 2019).

A look at Tapit Thrice and #2 Verifying in the Blue Grass Stakes:

#14 Angel of Empire is a morning line of (8-1) and his rider is Flavien Prat – who has one Kentucky Derby Victory (2019 -- the one Saez could have, should have had).  Angel of Empire has 4 lifetime wins in 6 attempts and is, most notably, the Arkansas Derby Winner.

Angel of Empire will be on the immediate inside post of the favorite Forte – and Flavien Prat could definitely use that to their advantage OR he could just ignore the favorite and run his best race.

Usually the outside horses will slowly mesh with the rest of the pack to save some ground before the first turn……I’ll be watching to see if Prat attempts to keep Forte on the outside as long as possible – maybe throw off the Favorite's game a little bit. Horse racing at its finest is a Chess Match being played at 40 mph.

Also Forte’s Rider Irad Ortiz could anticipate Prat using some strategy early and could pull Forte back early or see if they can cut Angel of Empire off before the 1^st turn……could be something – may be nothing at all - but at the beginning of the race....that's where I'll be focused.

Angel of Empire will likely attempt to keep close (and preferably inside) to Forte and “hope” they have the best gap on the inside to shoot when they hit the final stretch.

If Forte has a bad trip – I believe Angel of Empire has the best chance to win.

See Arkansas Derby – also including #23 (AE) King Russell and #7 Reincarnate:

There is a lot of buzz around # 17 Derma Sotogake the Japanese bred horse who won impressively at the UAE Derby (United Emirates). He has 4 wins out of a lifetime 8 races – but more to the point - he has won 3 out of his last 4.

There have been several years in the past when I’ve thought a UAE Derby winner might take home the Kentucky Roses (or at least challenge)…..however the highest finish we’ve seen in the past ten years has been 7^th place.

A Japanese Bred horse has never won a Kentucky Derby and neither has a UAE Derby winner - Derma Sotogake is both. 

 Currently I think this horse is going to be overbet – if he swings up to 20-1 – I’m more interested.

 UAE Derby – also includes #20 Continuar (JPN):

#2 Verifying  (15-1) has an ugly starting spot – but if this horse gets incredibly lucky he could own the rail and have a clear shot to the finish.  Will need a lot of luck to win – but could break the top 4.

#4 Confidence Game (20-1) – won the Rebel Stakes in February and hasn’t been heard from since. This is a pure long shot play – solid post and “who knows” what this horse can do at this point. Long layoffs are sometimes great…..usually not in the KY Derby….but this horse is a mystery at this point.

#6 Kingsbarns (12-1) the Louisiana Derby winner has a solid starting post and is undefeated in 3 starts. Despite the victory in the LA Derby – the pace was slow and it just didn’t impress. Flavien Prat was his jockey for the Louisiana Derby and he’s riding a different horse….so that should tell you something. Give me 30-1 here and I’d be more interested.

With this spot he could finish in the Top 4.

#8 Mage – (15-1) has only 3 lifetime races and has finished 2^nd, 4^th, and 1^st. Mage finished immediately behind the favorite Forte in the Arkansas Derby – I think he could be the most realistic "Longshot" of the bunch.

Our 38 Star Flag

My thinking is – that he has a very solid post position – there’s a chance Mage has a higher ceiling than some of the more experienced horses….we may have not seen this horse’s best race…..there’s also a chance that the lack of seasoning spooks Mage and he finishes in the back of the pack!

He’ll need a little luck as well – but if the others stall in traffic and he gets an opening – he could summon a victory in the Kentucky Derby. But I need these kinds of odds to keep my interest.

One important Kentucky Derby Trend to point out – Since 1882, only one horse (Justify = 2018) won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old…..that's 1882…meaning when the US only had 38 states!

 Kingbarns and Mage did NOT run as two year olds.

Entering the Kentucky Derby due to the many scratches is #22 Mandarin Hero - who finished 2nd behind Practical Move in the Santa Anita Derby. Out of lifetime 6 races this horse has 4 Wins and 2 Places. I think this horse has potential to land in the Top 4. This is a good horse that will be able to use this outside post to his advantage and may find a way to make you some money at 20-1.

Here’s how I see the race playing out –

#2 Verifying. #6 Kingsbarns and #7 Reincarnate will look to set the early pace.

Usually in these races one of the longshots goes on a suicidal pace…..and I usually know who it’s going to be….but this year I’m not sure......after a 10th glace I think it could be #7 Reincarnate and/or #21 Cyclone Mischief .... although that will be A LOT to ask from a horse posted at #21.

#14 Angel of Empire,  #17 Derma Sotogake and #22 Mandarin Hero will slowly blend into the pack and begin to work their ways towards the middle front.

#5 Tapit Trice – will likely be at the back of the pack…..perhaps even dead last until they reach the 2^nd turn.

If #2 Verifying can possess the rail and have an open avenue to the final stretch – he poses a threat…..BUT odds are he gets swallowed up by the pack – and can’t find a way out, until it’s too late.

#6 Kingsbarns – I think he has a better shot at placing himself in the perfect spot – but I think the more talented horses will push him and he’ll fade. I think likely coming out of the final turn is where the King runs out of steam.

#14 Angel of Empire  - if he can make the best move coming out of the final turn, either the perfect gap to burst through or making his way wide, but not having to go as wide as Derma Sotogake or Tapit Trice I now (after 5 scratches think it could be his race to lose).

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
has scratched from the 
149th KY Derby.
 

#17 Derma Sotogake – I've had a change of heart with this horse - primarily because I believe his post position has improved with so many scratches in this race. I don't trust this horse to win the race - but could DEFINITELY be a top 3 horse.

Finally #5 Tapit Trice – I’m just not a fan of a Bluegrass Stakes winner AND a late charging horse in the Kentucky Derby. I think he falls to the back of the pack – and makes a huge sweeping outside charge at the end and then he fades.

His Jockey is one of the best and may have Tapit Trice weave through traffic and find an inside hole to punch and I could be looking at having a big swing and a miss here….but I’m going to trust what I’ve seen over the past two decades. My gut tells me Tapit Trice comes out flat and finishes closer to 6th.

Closing Speed likes:  Angel of Empire, Mage, Mandarin Hero

History advices to toss out Kingsbarn, Mage, Tapit Trice, Derma Sotogake and Mandarin Hero as possible winners...however with so many great horses suddenly scratched it's very possible we see History "made" today or at least a very RARE winner from an unexpected Prep Race. 

Good Luck everyone.

If I’m betting $20 to $24 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box (with favorites): 5, 8, 14, 17 = $24

$1 Trifecta Box (The Bold call): 8,22, 14, 4, = $24

$1 Exacta Box: 17,14,22,8,5 = $20

Longshots:

$5 Win/Place – #17 = $10

$2 Across the Board - #4 – Confidence Game = $6
$2 Across the Board #2 – Verifying = $6
$2 Across the Board #22 – Mandarin Hero = $6