Belmont Park
RACE 12 - 7:02 PM
Belmont S. (Grade I)
Purse - $1,500,000
Distance - One And one ½ Miles
Surface – Dirt
1 – Tapit Shoes
2 – Tapit Trice
3 – Arcangelo
4 – National Treasure
5 – Il Miracolo
6 – Forte
7 – Hit Show
8 – Angel Of Empire
9 – Red Route One
Let’s begin with the Preakness Winner #4 National Treasure – who went stride for stride with Blazing Sevens and squeaked out a HUGE win.
I thought both of those horses would fade and that Mage and Red Route One would give us an electric late charge….but that was not the case.
If you missed it – here is the race:
There are a couple of interesting storylines with the 155th Belmont Stakes – the most important is the hazardous air quality in New York from the wildfires in Canada.
Here’s hoping this difficult time ends soon for our friends in New York.
Air Quality will definitely have an effect on the Training, Riding and Racing before the Belmont - that is IF it's still run this Saturday.
The next biggest story is the hopeful return of, the current 5-2 favorite, #6 Forte. I thought there was a very good chance this horse could be a Triple Crown contender before he was scratched before the Kentucky Derby.
I still believe he’s easily the best 3 year old running this year – and only two horses in the field have ever won at Belmont – and he’s one of them!
However the distance does concern me, especially because we’ve never seen this horse run more than a mile and 1/8th.
With a unique longer distance after a two and half month lay-off and possible small injury…..this horse may be a little rusty for this race.
I guess what I’m saying is…when he’s healthy and ready –
he’s definitely the favorite – are we sure he’s completely healthy and ready??
#1 Tapit Shores
– hasn’t produced a victory since December 2022 – he finished 2nd
behind #9 Red Route One in late
April. This horse has like a 12 Owner Partnership….maybe he’s just entered so
that the owners can party at Belmont…….I’d believe it.
#2 Tapit Trice
– Finished a disappointing 7th in the Kentucky Derby – before then
he had 4 straight wins with Luis Saez on board – and Saez will be on board for
the Belmont. This horse is a contender in this race – but I’m not a huge fan of
him winning. Currently he’s the second favorite at 3-1 and I don’t think he
should be. I don’t think he can close the deal at a Mile and a half.
And yes Tapit Shores and Tapit Trice are half-brothers.
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| Strangely Sensitive Cheetah thinks it would be awkward to meet your half brother for the first time in the Starters Gate of a big race. |
#3 Arcangelo – I think this horse may be flying under the radar a little – he’s got 2 straight victories with Castellano coming into this race and continues to improve as they add distance.
And his last victory was here at Belmont!
He hasn’t seen this kind of talent yet – so it could be overwhelming, but keep this horse in mind to take a top 3 spot at the end of the race – if you’re looking for a “value bet” he could be the one to add to your exotics.
#4 National Treasure – the only horse running in the Belmont with a Triple Crown victory is going off as the 4th Favorite……talk about no respect....but then again, the FILM is also kind of disrespected!!
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| This image is similar to me reviewing where I went WRONG in the Preakness. |
I thought this horse would do a HARD FADE in the Preakness and I was wrong – out of 6 lifetime races he’s only finished out of the money once.
Jockey John Velazquez will be on board again – and I think National Treasure has more of a chance than people are giving him credit for.
#7 Hit Show – When you consider how difficult it is to climb out of the #1 spot in the Kentucky Derby – his 5th place finish is impressive. This horse has 3 Wins and 1 Place in 6 races. He has Manuel Franco has his rider who has been with him during the last three races.
I just don’t see this horse improving with distance.
#8 Angel of Empire – Finished 3rd behind Mage and Two Phil’s in the Kentucky Derby – and if Flavien Prat could have made the move around the edge when he wanted they might have won the Kentucky Derby.
I like Angel of Empire with distance and I believe Angel of Empire should be the 2nd favorite in this race – currently at 7-2 odds he’s the third favorite.
Angel of Empire had 2 victories and a second place in three Stakes races leading up to the Kentucky Derby. They have something to prove here.
#9 Red Route One – finished 4th in the Preakness. I really thought this horse was ready to make an upset in the Preakness, but as they headed for home he didn’t offer much.
With a longer distance – and an improved field, I don’t like his chances.
How I see the 2023 Belmont –
I think Il Miracolo will set the pace along with National Treasure – Tapit Shoes may also join the early runners.
In the past there has been an effective strategy in the Belmont Stakes of taking an early lead and then just hoping to outlast the rest of the pack….the daunting distance can cause many horses to just give out before they even get close to the leader.
For National Treasure I think this strategy is worth considering – after all it worked in the Preakness.
If Forte is
game, you can expect him to stalk the lead(s) but maintaining a smart pace. Angel of Empire will likely be stalking
Forte – the idea may be that when Forte commits to the stretch run Flavien Prat
will ask Angel of Empire to commit as well.
It will be interesting to me to see if they want to
position Angel of Empire in front of Forte or immediately behind him.
The question will be where will Tapit Thrice and Arcangelo run – I imagine they will have the same strategy as Angel of Empire – in keeping close to Forte.
As we head for the LONG WOBBLY stretch home –
I think National Treasure will have a few lengths on most of the pack and clear ground in front of him.
I believe Forte, Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice and Arcangelo will make a solid bid at the lead.
I think Angel of Empire steals one from Forte at the wire…..National Treasure hanging on to 3rd with Arcangelo and Tapit Trice looking to take 4th.
Closing Speed likes: Angel of Empire, Forte, National Treasure
If I’m betting $16 to $34 – this is what I like:
$10 Win - #4
$1 Box Exacta – 4,6,8 = $6
$1 Box Trifecta – 3,4,6,8 = $24
