Pimlico Race Track RACE 13 – 7:01 PM Preakness S. (Grade I) Purse - $1,500,000 Distance - One And 3/16ths Mile Surface – Dirt
1 – National Treasure 2 – Chase the Chaos 3 – Mage 4 – Coffeewithchris 5 – Red Route One 6 – Perform 7 – Blazing Sevens 8 – First Mission
Mage is the one in the middle.
I am a bit saddened that only one horse from the Kentucky
Derby will be racing in the Preakness – the good news is, it is the Kentucky
Derby winner and Preakness Favorite #3 Mage.
If you haven’t seen the Kentucky Derby the replay is
below.
However if you only watched it casually or only watched
it once – I’d ask for you to watch it again with a few specifics in mind.
Using the Youtube Video timer:
If you go to the 1:35 point you will see
Mage and Angel of Empire going stride for stride in the final turn – Mage is
strategically on the outside – but still in the middle of the track (it’s a
strange NBC Angle from above).
At 1:45 – You will see Mage block off an outside hole for
Angel of Empire – boxing Angel of Empire inside.
It takes Angel of Empire 20 seconds (2:05) to swing
outside and find open ground – just enough time for Mage to fly by Two Phils
and still beat Angel of Empire to the finish line!
Rider Javier Castellano
absolutely made the difference in this race.
So let’s move onto the Preakness.
#8 Mage – is the morning line favorite at 8-5 – and while
I certainly agree he should be the favorite, I think those odds are far too
cocky for a horse that only has 2 lifetime wins.
Yes he’s very likely the best horse in this field and he
seems to favor races longer than a mile – but 8/5 on a horse with just two
wins? I don’t know about that.
Searching for clues on these odds.
#1 National Treasure – is another horse that I’m not so
positive deserves the odds of 4-1. While I love this horses name because the
film National Treasure is guilty pleasure of mine – similar to the film, just
because it’s loved doesn’t mean it’s that good…..(who am I kidding – it’s
wonderful!)
Jockey John Velazquez has been National Treasures jockey
for all 5 of this horses races – he’s a very good rider and knows the horse
well. However if you look at this horse’s history – he’s actually struggled
with the any race further than a mile.
He has the talent to land in the top three – but could
very easily be “fade” material.
#2 Chase the Chaos
– Is the El Camino Derby winner and therefore an automatic invite to the
Preakness. I like that Trainer / Ownership are going with a very successful Pimilico Jockey –
Sheldon Russell, who has won 7 out of 13 races here at Pimilico this meet.
But I don’t see anything on this horse’s resume to
suggest a wager….even at 50-1.
#4 Coffeewithchris
– This horse has 12 lifetime races, and for a 3 year old that’s a LOT. Out of
those 12 races this horse has been a Win/Place or Show 8 times…..which is also
impressive.
Current 20-1 odds makes some sense – as this horse hasn’t
necessarily challenged this level of talent – but I really like the success
rate here – and he should be considered as a Exacta / Trifecta contender
player.
#5 Red Route One –
finished 6th behind Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby – but won
his last race, coming from as far back as 8 lengths.
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah would like to point out that the writers Father DID like Two Phils in that race.
At 10-1 odds and an ability to close late – this horse
also has my interest in an Exacta / Trifecta.
He has hit the board 5 out of 9 lifetime races. And Joel Rosario was on board with his most
recent win.
#6 Perform – has
won his last 2 races and has hit the board 4 out of 7 races lifetime. Finished
well behind Mage this past January.
His morning line is 15-1 – I really don’t see much in
this horse…..but to be fair, I didn’t see much in Two Phils who finished 2nd
in the KY Derby.
#7 Blazing Sevens –
I think this horse will be overbet because it’s the #7 horse and his name
is Blazing Sevens! He’s a solid horse who has been training well. He has 2 Victories in 6 lifetime attempts.
But hasn’t won a race since October 2022. I think 10-1
odds would be reasonable for this horse.
#8 First Mission –
This horse is the current 2nd favorite after Mage. He has raced in
only three races but has 2 wins and 1 place…..his last two races were both
trips to the Winner’s Circle.
He may need to be the early speed in this race and certainly
could fancy a Wire to Wire trip. I don’t love his outside position against a
horse like Mage in this race.
Here’s how I see the race:
#8 First Mission
bolts for the early lead and may have to contend with #4 Coffeewithchris.
#3 Mage will
likely enjoy a leisurely first mile staying within a few lengths of the leaders.
#1 National
Treasure could be a bit of a wildcard – this horse could look to stay on
the inside, but also stay stride for stride with Mage….however that also could
lead to this horse getting boxed inside when it counts?
#5 Red Route One and
#6 Perform I think will stay at the
back of the pack.
I think #8 First
Mission fades…..I’ll be surprised if he has the maturity to pace himself
and then outrun Mage down the stretch -- as this is only Mage's 4th race......it may be a mistake to discount First Mission on a lack of races. I may be rooting for a longer shot here because it would be more interesting.
#4 Coffeewithchris
– could finish well because his early position may help him stay in the
race.
**If Mage were to fade in this race - #4 Coffeewithchris
and #5 Red Route One could churn up some sizeable upsets.
However I think Mage flys by everyone in the final
stretch – and Red Route One, First Mission and National Treasure fight it out a
few lengths behind.
Closing Speed likes:
Mage, Coffeewithchris and Red Route One
Churchill Downs –
May 6th, 2023 Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST) Kentucky Derby Purse - $3,000,000 Distance - One And One Quarter Miles Surface - Dirt
1 – Hit Show
2 – Verifying
3 – Two Phil’s
4 – Confidence Game
5 – Tapit Trice
6 – Kingsbarns
7 – Reincarnate
8 – Mage
9 – Skinner
10 – Practical
Move
11 – Disarm
12 – Jace’s Road
13 – Sun Thunder
14 – Angel of Empire
15 – Forte
16 – Raise Cain
17 – Derma Sotogake
18 – Rocket Can
19 – Lord Miles
20 – Continuar
21 - Cyclone Mischief 22 - Mandarin Hero 23- King Russell
I’ll begin with the Morning
Line Favorite (3-1) #15 Forte– I believe this horse has a
legitimate chance to become only the 2nd horse in history (following
American Phoaroh) to win the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and the Triple Crown – the
Kentucky Derby is, in my humble opinion, his to lose.
Forte has won 6 out of 7
lifetime races, including four Grade I Stakes races and a Grade II stakes race.
His only "non-win" was in July 2022.
Forte runs with the consistency of a computer
simulation – He breaks well, he runs in traffic with poise and he closes like a modish bad boss from Glengarry Glen Ross!
He will find his spot near the top of the pack for most of the race
and then turn it on for the win once he hits the final stretch.
He deserves to be the favorite
– he has a solid post position and the leading Rider in the US - Irad
Ortiz, Jr. (who has never won a Kentucky Derby).
For a look at how Forte runs, here's the Florida Derby (including #8
Mage and #21 (AE) Cyclone Mischief.
The next favorite is #5 Tapit Thrice currently set at 5-1 –
(when I say his name it makes me think of the song Knock Three Times on the
ceiling if you want me…..c’mon, Tony Orlando & Dawn?!?!)
You people don't know what you're missing!
I digress – Tapit Thrice has
won 4 out of 5 lifetime races – but his only loss was his debut race. Tapit
Thrice usually prefers to sit at the back of the pack and make a late bolt
for the wire.
If this horse can run his race and find a gap to burst through
coming out of the turn – he "could" be plenty dangerous.
However here are my concerns
with Tapit Thrice – I’m not a big fan of Blue Grass Stakes Winners to win the
Kentucky Derby – they haven’t won a Kentucky Derby since 1991. And while he
certainly has a solid post – I don’t think it’s going to help him much
considering his racing style, I believe a post further out would have
been preferable.
I think he’s going to get
swallowed up in traffic early….and trapped behind a wall of horses late. His
Jockey Luis Saez (2nd best in the US) has also never “technically”
won a Kentucky Derby – (he and Maximum Security were disqualified in 2019).
A look at Tapit Thrice and #2 Verifying in the Blue Grass Stakes:
#14 Angel of Empire is a morning line of (8-1) and his rider is
Flavien Prat – who has one Kentucky Derby Victory (2019 -- the one Saez could
have, should have had). Angel of Empire
has 4 lifetime wins in 6 attempts and is, most notably, the Arkansas Derby
Winner.
Angel of Empire will be on the
immediate inside post of the favorite Forte – and Flavien Prat could definitely
use that to their advantage OR he could just ignore the favorite and run his
best race.
Usually the outside horses will
slowly mesh with the rest of the pack to save some ground before the first
turn……I’ll be watching to see if Prat attempts to keep Forte on the outside as
long as possible – maybe throw off the Favorite's game a little bit. Horse
racing at its finest is a Chess Match being played at 40 mph.
Also Forte’s Rider Irad Ortiz
could anticipate Prat using some strategy early and could pull Forte back early
or see if they can cut Angel of Empire off before the 1st turn……could
be something – may be nothing at all - but at the beginning of the race....that's where I'll be focused.
Angel of Empire will likely
attempt to keep close (and preferably inside) to Forte and “hope” they have the
best gap on the inside to shoot when they hit the final stretch.
If Forte has a bad trip – I
believe Angel of Empire has the best chance to win.
See Arkansas Derby – also
including #23 (AE) King Russell and #7 Reincarnate:
There is a lot of buzz around # 17 Derma Sotogake the Japanese bred
horse who won impressively at the UAE Derby (United Emirates). He has 4 wins
out of a lifetime 8 races – but more to the point - he has won 3 out of his
last 4.
There have been several years
in the past when I’ve thought a UAE Derby winner might take home the Kentucky
Roses (or at least challenge)…..however the highest finish we’ve seen in the
past ten years has been 7th place.
A Japanese Bred horse has never
won a Kentucky Derby and neither has a UAE Derby winner - Derma Sotogake is both.
Currently I think this horse is
going to be overbet – if he swings up to 20-1 – I’m more interested.
UAE Derby – also includes #20 Continuar (JPN):
#2 Verifying (15-1) has an
ugly starting spot – but if this horse gets incredibly lucky he could own the rail
and have a clear shot to the finish. Will need a lot of luck to win – but could
break the top 4.
#4 Confidence Game (20-1) – won the Rebel Stakes in February and
hasn’t been heard from since. This is a pure long shot play – solid post and “who
knows” what this horse can do at this point. Long layoffs are sometimes great…..usually
not in the KY Derby….but this horse is a mystery at this point.
#6 Kingsbarns (12-1) the Louisiana Derby winner has a solid
starting post and is undefeated in 3 starts. Despite the victory in the LA Derby – the pace
was slow and it just didn’t impress. Flavien Prat was his jockey for the
Louisiana Derby and he’s riding a different horse….so that should tell you
something. Give me 30-1 here and I’d be more interested.
With this spot he could finish
in the Top 4.
#8 Mage – (15-1) has only 3 lifetime races and has finished 2nd,
4th, and 1st. Mage finished immediately behind the
favorite Forte in the Arkansas Derby – I think he could be the most realistic "Longshot" of the bunch.
Our 38 Star Flag
My thinking is – that he has a
very solid post position – there’s a chance Mage has a higher ceiling than some
of the more experienced horses….we may have not seen this horse’s best race…..there’s
also a chance that the lack of seasoning spooks Mage and he finishes in the
back of the pack!
He’ll need a little luck as
well – but if the others stall in traffic and he gets an opening – he could summon
a victory in the Kentucky Derby. But I need these kinds of odds to keep my
interest.
One important Kentucky Derby
Trend to point out – Since 1882, only one horse (Justify = 2018) won the
Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old…..that's 1882…meaning when the US
only had 38 states!
Kingbarns and Mage did NOT run
as two year olds.
Entering the Kentucky Derby due to the many scratches is #22 Mandarin Hero - who finished 2nd behind Practical Move in the Santa Anita Derby. Out of lifetime 6 races this horse has 4 Wins and 2 Places. I think this horse has potential to land in the Top 4. This is a good horse that will be able to use this outside post to his advantage and may find a way to make you some money at 20-1.
Here’s how I see the race
playing out –
#2 Verifying.#6 Kingsbarns and #7 Reincarnate will look to set the early pace.
Usually in these races one of
the longshots goes on a suicidal pace…..and I usually know who it’s going to be….but
this year I’m not sure......after a 10th glace I think it could be #7 Reincarnate and/or #21 Cyclone Mischief .... although that will be A LOT to ask from a horse posted at #21.
#14 Angel of Empire, #17 Derma Sotogake and #22 Mandarin Hero will slowly blend into the pack and begin to
work their ways towards the middle front.
#5 Tapit Trice – will likely be at the back of the pack…..perhaps
even dead last until they reach the 2nd turn.
If #2 Verifying can possess the rail and have an open avenue to the
final stretch – he poses a threat…..BUT odds are he gets swallowed up by the pack
– and can’t find a way out, until it’s too late.
#6 Kingsbarns – I think he has a better shot at placing himself in
the perfect spot – but I think the more talented horses will push him and he’ll fade. I think likely coming out of the final turn is where
the King runs out of steam.
#14 Angel of Empire - if he can make the best move coming out of the final turn, either the perfect gap to burst through or making his way wide, but not having to go as wide as Derma Sotogake or Tapit Trice I now (after 5 scratches think it could be his race to lose).
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah has scratched from the 149th KY Derby.
#17 Derma Sotogake – I've had a change of heart with this horse - primarily because I believe his post position has improved with so many scratches in this race. I don't trust this horse to win the race - but could DEFINITELY be a top 3 horse.
Finally #5 Tapit Trice – I’m just not a fan of a Bluegrass Stakes winner
AND a late charging horse in the Kentucky Derby. I think he falls to the back
of the pack – and makes a huge sweeping outside charge at the end and then he
fades.
His Jockey is one of the best and may
have Tapit Trice weave through traffic and find an inside hole to punch and I
could be looking at having a big swing and a miss here….but I’m going to trust
what I’ve seen over the past two decades. My gut tells me Tapit Trice comes out flat and finishes closer to 6th.
Closing Speedlikes: Angel of Empire, Mage, Mandarin Hero
History advices to toss out Kingsbarn, Mage, Tapit Trice, Derma Sotogake and Mandarin Hero as possible winners...however with so many great horses suddenly scratched it's very possible we see History "made" today or at least a very RARE winner from an unexpected Prep Race.
