Churchill Downs – May 2nd, 2026
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $5,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface – Dirt
#1 Renegade
#2 Albus
#3 Intrepido
#4 Litmus Test
#5 Right To Party
#6 Commandment
#7 Danon Bourbon
#8 So Happy
#9 The Puma
#10 Wonder Dean (JPN)
#11 Incredibolt
#12 Chief Wallabee
#13 Silent Tactic
#14 Potente
#15 Emerging Market
#16 Pavlovian
# 17 Six Speed
#18 Further Ado
#19 Golden Tempo
#20 Fulleffort
Sub: Great White
Sub: Ocelli
“The jig is up, the news is out, They
finally found me, The renegade
who had it made, Retrieved for a bounty” – Styx – Renegade.
The last time a horse won the Kentucky Derby from the #1 post was 40 years ago (1986) with Ferdinand. Which is one reason I found it “interesting” that #1 Renegade was the morning line favorite at 4-1 odds.
#1 Renegade – Has
won 3 out of 4 lifetime races including a dominant victory at the Arkansas
Derby. His Trainer Todd Pletcher has two KY Derby victories and Irad Ortiz is
one of the best riders in the US. However he’ll VERY LIKELY be buried or pinned
in the first quarter of this race and then have to maneuver past a wall of
horses to reach the finish line first – he’s my favorite this year with the absolute
worst spot in the race.
#2 Albus – Winner of his last two
races including the Wood Memorial. While I like this horse quite a bit his
rider chose to stick with #11
Incredibolt – so he’ll have a new jockey and not a great starting spot.
#3 Intrepido – Hasn’t won a race
since October 2025 – he’s a very solid horse and Hector Berrios has been aboard
for the last 5 rides – he finished 4th in the Santa Anita Derby and
his 50-1 odds are about right.
#4 Litmus Test – Hasn’t won since December 2025, and will have Garcia aboard for the first time. He’s a Bob Baffert trained horse – and Baffert has 6 total KY Derbies to his name – but 50-1 also seems right for this horse as well.
#5 Right to Party – Finished 2nd in the Wood Memorial behind Albus – but hasn’t seen the Winners Circle since January 2026. Trainer Kenneth McPeek won the KY Derby in 2024 and Jockey Elliott has been on board for three previous races – so his Posse is in Effect, and as much as I’d like to Fight for the Right to Party, unless they have Paul Revere on board or a New Style – I see this as a Slow Ride – in fact Slow and Low chance of hitting the money here – his Kentucky Racing License is really just a License to Ill.
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Also from 1986....and YES I included as many song titles |
#6 Commandment – The (2nd) morning line favorite has everything working for him. He’s won his last four races including the Florida Derby – he even has 1 lifetime victory here at Churchhill Downs. His Post Position #6 – places him in a great spot for this race. I think Commandment will be the favorite when they approach the gate and for good reason. HOWEVER he had Flavien Prat aboard for his Florida Derby win and Irad Ortiz for the two races before that. This will be Saez’s first time with this horse – is that enough to cause some doubt?? If he wins the Kentucky Derby that will be 5 wins with 4 Different Riders.
#7 Danon Bourbon – Is a Kentucky Bred horse who has three dominant wins in three races….that have all been in Japan. Japan is making great strides in Horse Racing – and this horse will have the same rider (Nishimura) as he’s had his whole career – however in my experience changing Countries, Tracks and even running in a different direction (they run clock-wise in Japan) can be a difficult ask for a horse their first time out. 20-1 is an interesting price – and “someday” a foreign horse is going to win this race….I just don’t think it’s this one.
#8 So Happy –
Santa Anita Derby winner who has 3 lifetime victories in 4 races – has Big
Money Mike Smith on board for the fifth straight time. Mike Smith has two KY
Derby wins and he has this horse in a great spot and with current odds at 15-1….has
my attention. Especially because this horse can run at the top of pack early
and still close.
#9 The Puma – One victory (Tampa Bay
Derby) in Four Races – but has been competitive. In the other three races he finished
2nd behind Commandment, 3rd behind Renegade, 2nd
behind Chief Wallabee. His Jockey and Trainer put together a Kentucky Derby
Victory in 2023 with Mage from the 8th spot. With a little luck it’s
possible he makes the top 3.
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Strangely Sensitive Cheetah |
#10 Wonder Dean (JPN) – recently defeated #17 Six Speed – in the UAE Derby. Similar issue to Danon Bourbon – horses with UAE Derby victories just haven’t “won”. Solid post position – good horse – could surprise….and at 30-1 has my attention….but history says save your money.
#11 Incredibolt – At 20-1 this horse is a very interesting prospect to me. He has had Torres aboard his entire career – and has 3 victories in 5 races. His last race was a beautiful ride in the Virginia Derby in mid-March – he navigated traffic like a seasoned pro and closed well. His other two victories were here at Churchhill Downs. He’s got a great post position – and has shown to have the kind of kick and poise to do well here in the Kentucky Derby.
Here’s the bad news – His Jockey Torres has never raced in the Kentucky Derby – and his Trainer Riley Mott has never won one – although his Father Trainer Bill Mott has won two Kentucky Derbies. Also the Virginia Derby (on Dirt) is only in it’s second year – and it’s difficult to judge how that race translates to this one. American Promise won the Virginia Derby in 2025 and finished 16th here at the Kentucky Derby.
#12 Chief Wallabee – Has 1 victory in 3 races – defeated twice by #6 Commandment in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Trainer Bill Mott and Jockey Junior Alvarado teamed up to visit the Winner’s Circle on Sovereignty last year here at the Kentucky Derby – so this horse has a great team and a good post position – will need some luck to win outright….but should be considered for Exotics.
#13 Silent Tactic – Scratched
#14 Potente – Has
two victories in three lifetime races – and he was the Favorite going into the
Santa Anita Derby only to finish behind
#8 So Happy. JJ Hernandez has been aboard his last two races and Bob Baffert
obviously knows how to win in Kentucky. He’s got a solid post position – and with
only three races under his belt – he could be poised to show a little more here
in his fourth lifetime race. He’s a dangerous 20-1.
#15 Emerging Market – This horse
only has two races under it’s belt….(for a horse should that be “harness”…”Saddle”??) Anyway this horse has 2 Wins in 2 races and punched his ticket to the Kentucky
Derby with a win in the Louisiana Derby over #16 Pavlovian and #19 Golden
Tempo. He’s got a fantastic team of Trainer Chad Brown and Jockey Flavien Pratt
– according to the interwebs Pratt is on Emerging Market because he had a deal
in place with Chad Brown….and not necessarily because he chose this horse over
#6 Commandment.
I will say this, the Louisiana Derby winner has let me down many times. 15-1 odds is a tempting pot of Gumbo and he’s
got a solid post position and one of the best riders in the country. But I forsee
me getting let down again here.
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| What Emerging Market's Odds looks like to my belly! |
#16 Pavlovian – This is a well seasoned horse – 10 Lifetime races – having been in the money 7 out of 10. Won the Sunland Derby in Feb. 2026 / finished behind Emerging Market in Louisiana in March. His rider Maldonado has been aboard for the last two rides. He usually does well at the top of the pack early – so this may not be a good spot for him.
#17 Six Speed – Has 3 victories in 5 Races – however all of his races are overseas. Finished behind Wonder Dean in the UAE Derby. Counting him out for the same reasons as the other two horses from overseas.
#18 Further Ado – Jockey Velazquez has three recent Kentucky Derby Victories (2020, 2017, and 2011). Along with Brad Cox who has a 2021 Kentucky Derby win – this horse has 3 victories in 6 lifetime races – but has won 3 out of the last 4 – including the Blue Grass Stakes.
Morning Line has him at 6-1 – which would make him the 2nd
favorite in his race along with Commandment. Similar to Commandment – this will
be Velazquez first race with Further Ado.
But I’ve never been a fan of the Blue Grass Stakes as a Prep Race – the last
horse to win both the Blue Grass Stakes AND the Kentucky Derby was Strike the Gold in 1991.
And (for good or bad) that’s the main reason I don’t like Further Ado to win here.
#19 Golden Tempo – Had two early
victories at lesser distance in his four race career – but has recently
finished 3rd in his last two races – including the Louisiana Derby
behind Emerging Market and Pavlovian – difficult to see where he’s picked up an
edge with longer distance and being further outside.
#20 Fulleffort – Scratched
#21 Great White – Has two victories
in four races – his last outing he finished 5th in the Blue Grass
Stakes. He has had Jockey Achard for all four races.
#22 Ocelli – Has never won a race in
6 outings…..a victory in the Kentucky Derby would “break” his Maiden. Just a
bit of history only 3 horses have broken their maiden in the Kentucky Derby.
1884 – Buchanan (you read that right
1884….BEFORE the Dakota’s were US States).
1933 – Broker’s Tip (When you couldn’t
legally celebrate with a Cocktail – because it was the last year of Prohibition.
And finally 1919 – Sir
Barton – the first Triple Crown Winner….hey maybe there is hope??
Here’s how I see the race unfolding:
#1 Renegade –
Will run the risk of getting pinned or bottled up early OR give the field a
half second start and begin to work the traffic from the back at the beginning
of the race --- it’s an impossible choice. My guess is he’ll make a valiant run
at the end – but unless he’s blessed with luck I don’t see him finishing better
than 4th.
I think #4 Litmus Test will attempt to
take command of the rail – and may even appear to be in contention for most of
the race – but look for him to fade as they come into the final turn.
#6 Commandment – He’ll have the best
position early on and certainly has enough kick to win. I think it’s his race
to lose – the question is: How well Saez and he will work together.
#8 So Happy – could be the wildcard
in this race. He “could” push the early tempo in an attempt to control the lead
– which could dictate Commandment’s choices. I trust Mike Smith and his
experience with this horse could be a deciding factor – So Happy could be in an early stalking spot close enough to the
inside to not be gassed at the end – DANGEROUS 15-1 here.
#9 The Puma, #11 Incredibolt, #12 Chief Wallabee, #14 Potente, #15 Emerging Market and #18 Further Ado – will all be looking for the best spots early to position themselves for a late surge. It will be a toss up to see which horse has the best break from the gate, if any of them get bumped early and who puts themselves in the best position to make a late push.
Closing Speed likes: #6 Commandment / #8 So Happy / #12 Chief Wallabee
If I’m betting $20 to $24 on this race I like:
$1 Trifecta Box: 6, 8, 9, 12 = $24
$1 Exacta Box : 6/8/9/12/14 w 6/8/9/12/14 = $20
Longshots:
$4 Win/Place – #8 = $8
$4 Win/ Place - #7 - $8
$4 Win/Place - $14 = $8
