Saturday, April 2, 2016

Florida Derby 2016

Gulfstream Park – April 2, 2016
Race 14 - 6:48 PM
Florida Derby (Grade I)
Distance - One And One Eighth Miles

1 – Sawyers Mickey
2 – Fellowship                                  
3 – Majesto                                                       
4 – Nyquist                                                        
5 – Copingaway                                                               
6 – Chovanes                                                    
7 – Takeittotheedge
8 – Fashionable Freddy
9 –  Mohayman
10 – Isofass

#4 Nyquist and #9 Mohayman are considered by many to be the two best three year old horses in the country --- and (it’s possible) they could be starting a great rivalry here at Gulfstream Park in the Florida Derby.

#4 Nyquist is undefeated in 6 races including the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and the San Vicente Stakes.

#9 Mohayman is also undefeated – having won his last two races The Fountain of Youth and the Holy Bull Stakes here at Gulfstream Park.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
thinks that having a Father
named Uncle Mo would be
very confusing. 

Nyquist (like his father Uncle Mo) has a tendency to set a demanding pace (he put up a 22.7 ¼ mile in his last outing) – he will, most likely, look to take the lead early – control the rail – and have enough stamina to finish before any late closers can catch him……and as I wrote before – so far no one has.

Mohayman will likely stalk the pace – he will likely position himself in the middle of the pack and look to have enough time and enough energy to close on Nyquist.

What will be very interesting is to see how much distance is between Nyquist and Mohayman going into the first turn and coming out of the second turn.

Mohayman doesn’t want to burn out too early trying to keep up with Nyquist in the first three quarters of the race --- he also doesn’t want to give Nyquist so much room that he doesn’t have time to catch Nyquist in the final furlongs.  

Currently Nyquist is the second favorite currently set at 6/5 odds --- Mohayman is currently at 1/1 odds – I don’t think I’ve ever seen odds this low AND this close in one race.

With a two dollar bet --

6/5 odds pays $4.40
1/1 odds pays $4.00

Just to look over the remaining horses –

#1 Sawyers Mickey is currently at 30-1 and has never won a race in 7 attempts

#2 Fellowship (15-1) finished 3rd in the Fountain of Youth against Mohayman and has two victories in 10 attempts.

#3 Majesto (20/1)  - 1 win in 5 Races
#5 Copingaway (50/1) 1 win – 14 races
#6 Chovanes (30/1) 1 win – 4 races

#7 Takeittotheedge (20/1) – he won in his only race, which was a 7 furlong race here at Gulfstream Park.

#8 Fashionable Freddy (30/1) – 1 win in 5 races
#10 Isofass (30/1) – 1 win in 4 races.

To give this some perspective Nyquist has 6 victories – Mohayman has 5 victories – and the rest of the field combined have 8 victories.

In my attempt to pick a winner in this race – I have gone back and forth several times –

Mohayman has never had to close on this kind of early speed – Nyquist may not have enough endurance to hold Mohayman off.

Mohayman has experience on this track – Nyquist is the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Champion.

I usually take the horse that has experience with the track, and Mohayman has won his last two races at Gulfstream Park…..but it is certainly not easy not choosing the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile that has quite a bit of racing experience already.

So Closing Speed likes: Mohayman,  Nyquist and Majesto

I would not bet on this race – this is a race you just sit back and hope to watch two young greats go at it.

However if you’re betting $18 I would go with a Pick 3 bet beginning in race #12

Race #12 – 3,5,6 with Race #13 – 4,7,9 with Race #14 4,9.

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