Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Kentucky Derby - Recap

Kentucky Derby - Recap

Super Saver
Ice Box
Paddy O’prado

Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.

Also ran: Make Music For Me, Noble’s Promise, Lookin At Lucky, Dublin, Stately Victor, Mission Impazible, Devil May Care, American Lion, Jackson Bend, Discreetly Mine, Dean’s Kitten, Conveyance, Homeboykris, Sidney’s Candy, Line Of David, Awesome Act, Backtalk

Twenty years ago there was a popular marketing campaign based on Football / Baseball / Athletic super-star Bo Jackson – many of us remember the popular saying….Bo Knows –

After watching Calvin Borel win his third Kentucky Derby in his last four efforts – it’s crystal clear that Bo-rel knows Churchill Downs. I’m fascinated by what odds are going to be on any horse he rides next year. Trainer Todd Pletcher (who finally broke his much ballyhooed winless streak in the Kentucky Derby) was quoted as saying that Borel is statistically five lengths better on any horse at Churchill Downs than he is at any other track – and for those who don’t know, five lengths is a lot of horse people! In the Derby that’s the difference between the first place winner Super Saver and the third place show Paddy O’Prado.

Calvin Borel seems to think Super Saver will break the 32 year Triple Crown drought – however from what I’ve seen the only way any of us are going to see a Triple Crown winner this year is if we go to the movies and watch Secretariat this fall….staring Diane Lane –

Yeah – horse racing and Diane Lane – the question isn’t will I go see the movie, the question is once I’m there will I ever leave.

To wrap up my blog on the Kentucky Derby I will finish it up in a Bo knows kind of way.

* I knew when the first ¼ mile was run in 22.6 and Sidney’s Candy was in second and Line of David was in 3rd that those picks were doomed. It was just too fast a pace for this Derby’s distance. As you review the race you’ll see Sidney’s Candy simply wilt near the 1 mile marker and in a matter of seconds go from 2nd place to 12th.

* I knew that when Lookin At Lucky got body checked once – that his odds of recovery were slim – when he got bounced a second time I knew his odds of recovery went from slim to none. Still all things considered a 6th place finish isn’t bad for this horse – watch for him in the Preakness and Belmont.

* I knew that Ice Box would be trouble down the stretch if he got clear – he just didn’t get clear soon enough – from what I’m reading he’s skipping the Preakness – but he’ll be very dangerous in the Belmont.

Two horses that surprised me were Paddy O’prado and Make Music for Me – Very solid outings for two horses who seem to be peaking at the right time.

For anyone who wasn’t at the track – this Kentucky Derby had the most differing opinions I’ve seen to date. Two guys who I respect greatly for their handicapping skills had selected Conveyance (15th) and Sidney’s Candy (17th) – as I spoke to people at the track I heard everything from Dean’s Kitten to Awesome Act and I even managed to throw one lady into a bit of panic when she told me that because she was Irish she knew she had to bet that way…..when I inquired whether she meant Dublin or Paddy O’prado her eyes lit up and she sprinted for the betting booth…..apparently she had missed Paddy O’prado as representing Ireland.

In the end it was a great start to what I think will become a very interesting Triple Crown to watch – and while Closing Speed “knows” Super Saver won’t be able to win the Preakness and Belmont – as race fan I hope I’m wrong.

Kentucky Derby Video to follow:


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