Thursday, May 3, 2012

Kentucky Derby Part III - Looking at Longshots!

Kentucky Derby 2012 – Part III
Looking at Longshots

Because of the depth of talent in this year’s Kentucky Derby – I believe a Longshot “upset” is less likely than it has been in the past few years.  I believe this year’s KY Derby resembles the 2007 Kentucky Derby where the spring’s best horses rose to the occasion (Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin).

However because of:
Ø  The number of horses running (20)
Ø  The unique distance – which will be new to all of these horses
Ø  And the fact that any of these horse could “blossom” at just the right time

A long shot win certainly isn’t out of the question – so here is my break down on the longshots – with a little help from my “new” sidekick Longshot Larry the Giraffe and his loveable friends!

#1 - Daddy Long Legs (30-1) – I’ll pass – this horse has drawn a very difficult post, he’s had to travel half way around the world, and I just don’t see him pulling out a victory here. I think he’s going to get pinned to the rail and never be heard from again.

#2 – Optimizer (50-1) – I’ll pass – From what I’m seeing this horse is going in the wrong direction (i.e. he’s not getting better). Love the odds, like the post position – but I don’t think this horse is ready.

#3 – Take Charge Indy (15-1) – Worth a bet – Two Words: Calvin Borel!! If Take Charge Indy breaks out of the gate well and owns the rail and the early lead, I believe this horse has a fighting chance, especially with a jockey who has won a number of recent Kentucky Derbies. He’ll need a healthy lead coming out of the final turn, and he’ll need all kinds of traffic issues for the more talented horses – and both are very real possibilities. I’m guessing at post time this horse could be going off at closer to 8-1, which is still “okay”….but if his odds exceed (20-1)  he’s definitely worth a bet.

"Grumpy the Gorilla" does not like
that Rousing Sermon got a great post!
#7 – Rousing Sermon (50-1) – I’ll pass – great post position, decent talent, but the Louisiana prepped horses haven’t shown me much this year. Sadly Sermon is the kind of horse who will just get in the way for this race and end up being a factor – in a bad way.

RESPECT?!? Did he just say
#9 – Trinniberg (50-1) – Worth a bet – I may have just lost the respect of a few more serious horse people with this call – but I think Trinniberg has a great opening spot, he can run with the early leaders , and while he hasn’t been tested for anything beyond a mile……there’s an outside hope that he may do very well with the distance. If he falls below 20-1 forget it, but at 50-1 and odds that could go beyond 100-1, I believe he’s worth a $2 bet. What’s likely is that he’ll be a part of the early runners and fade well before the final turn – but his odds may be too much fun to ignore. I'm also fully aware that this horse could finish dead last.

#10 – Daddy Nose Best (15-1) – I’ll pass – I like his post, I like his talent – but I’d need (40-1) or better before I’d bet on Daddy Nose Best.  I think 30-1 is a fair price for this horse, and we’re not there yet.

#11 – Alpha (15-1) – Worth a bet – Very fair price on this horse, very solid post position – what I like most about this horse is that in his last race (Wood Memorial) he had to pull up in the first turn and he still managed to fight Gemologist (6-1 – aka twice the odds??)  to the wire. Being pulled up in that race is just a little bad luck, and he may be getting overlooked because of it. He’ll need to find an open lane late in the Kentucky Derby – but I think he can finish without fading – and if the pace early is too fast he may be the horse with enough energy to close.

#12 – Prospective (30-1) – I’ll pass In the past he’s come up short against a number of these horses (13th) in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, (6th) in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah wishes he had
bet on Animal Kingdom last year....
#13 – Went the Day Well (20-1) – Consider yourself warned  (But I’ll pass) – This horse has the same connections as Animal Kingdom (last year’s Kentucky Derby Winner). He’s won his last two races but he remains a bit of a mystery because he hasn’t raced in the more prominent prep races. A number of betting “experts” like him….but all I can leave you with is – consider yourself warned.

With the exception of Done Talking I’m calling the #16 post and beyond the El Padrino Line – Outside of this line the amount of luck needed is too great and the amount of talent too little.

Although I can actually hear my father asking “How can you NOT bet on El Padrino on Cinco De Mayo?!?!!” I’ll pass.

#16 – El Padrino (20-1)
#18 – Sabercat (30-1)
#20 – Liaison (50-1)

#17 – Done Talking (50-1) – Worth a bet – Sure he’s beyond the “El Padrino Line” – however Done Talking successfully won the Illinois Derby by hanging back and closing late. If the favorites fade, a horse like Done Talking could be there for the upset. Keep in mind Illinois Derby winners haven’t been known to be very competitive in the past – however at 50-1 or higher – I think he’s worth a bet.

In my next post I'll cover the more favored horses in this year's Kentucky Derby.....and who knows maybe Longshot Larry and his friends will join us.....he's a Giraffe, because he has a "long" neck....aka Long shot??? Besides Giraffes don't get a lot of love in the Mascot area!

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