Saturday, March 23, 2013

2013 Spiral Stakes

TURFWAY PARK - March 23, 2013
Race 10 - 5:50 PM
Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Racing Spiral S.   (Grade III)
Purse - $550,000
Distance - One And One Eighth Mile

1 – Balance the Books
2 –Channel Isle
3 – Uncaptured
4 – Fear the Kitten
5 – My Name Is Michael
6 – For Greater Glory
7 – Mac the Man
8- General Election
9- Black Onyx
10 – Giant Finish
11 – Taken by the Storm
12 – Capo Bastone

Last week I thought there was ample reason to believe in an upset in the Rebel Stakes and there was!!!! (but I picked the wrong horses.......sigh.....again.

Well --- I’m seeing upset potential again in the Spiral Stakes this week!

 #1 Balance the Books and #3 Uncaptured are the two favorites going into this race, however Balance the Books hasn’t raced competitively in 140 days, and Uncaptured has also been enjoying a relatively long layoff of 119 days.

Both horses have raced against superior talent and there’s no question that both of these horses have shown a great deal of ability….Here’s Uncaptured in his last outing -- the Jockey Club Stakes –

I’m certainly wary of putting money on a favorite in late March on horses who haven’t competed since last Thanksgiving!

I like Uncaptured a lot – but I think he could be very beatable in this race – now, of course, the question is who is going to pull off the upset?
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
does not fear the kitten!
But he does respect
The Napravnik!

 #4 Fear the Kitten recently finished a distant 2nd in a muddy Southwest Stakes (behind winner Super Ninety Nine) – but finished ahead of #2 Channel Isle, who finished 4th.

I’m ready to believe that the mud was a BIG factor in the Southwest Stakes – so Fear the Kitten could certainly be worth looking at – especially because he’s going off at 15-1 and he’s being ridden by the red-hot jockey Rosie Napravnik.

#5 My Name is Michael recently finished 3rd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes but he only has 1 win in 5 attempts. It wouldn’t surprise me if My Name is Michael finished 3rd in this race—and at 10-1 could make a nice addition to a trifecta bet. I just don’t see him breaking through to the winners circle.

#8 General Election recently won here at Turfway Park in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes – finishing ahead of a fading #10 Giant Finish (2nd place) and #6 For Greater Glory who finished third . 

General Election is sitting at 12-1 odds, and I like that he has a recent victory here at Turfway Park.

However For Greater Glory – was gaining fast after a rough trip – and at 20-1 odds he has my attention!

#7 Mac the Man has won his last three races and all of them were here at Turfway Park – he’s currently going off at 10-1, and there is a lot of buzz about this horse. This will be his first attempt at a race over a mile which is concerning…..but Mac could very well be on the attack this week.

#9 Black Onyx is going off at 10-1 – he has two victories out of four attempts, however I think he could be out of his class here.

#11 Taken by the Storm recently won an Allowance Optional Claiming and has visited the winners circle twice in six attempts – however (like Black Onyx) I think the surrounding talent will be too much for this horse.

#12 Capo Bastone intrigues me – his resume includes a third place finish in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and a recent win (35 days ago) in an Allowance Claiming Optional. He’s currently the third favorite in this race at 9/2 odds and I think he could be prime for this race --- in contrast to the two favorites who may have forgotten what a racetrack looks like since the last time they raced.

Closing Speed likes: 12, 6, 3

If I’m betting $20 here’s who I like

$1 Trifecta – 3/12 w 4,6,7,8 w 3/12 = $8

$1 Exacta – 3/12 w 4,6,7,8 = $8

#2 Win - #7
#2 Win - #6

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